Meto Uk Further Outlook

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Sunday 19 Aug 2012 to Tuesday 28 Aug 2012:

A northwest-southeast split in the weather looks likely to dominate through this period. On Sunday and Monday sunny spells and showers, occasionally heavy, are expected over west and northwestern parts while the south and east should see drier, brighter and warm or very warm conditions. Thereafter, the north and west will probably remain unsettled with strong winds, sunshine and showers and a risk of some more persistent rain later next week. Less showery in the south and east where warm at times. Towards the end of August, it looks unsettled in all areas including the southeast, but with some short-lived drier and brighter periods. Daytime temperatures by this stage largely around average or a little below, with the best chance of occasional above average temperatures in the southeast.

Updated: 1119 on Tue 14 Aug 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Monday 20 Aug 2012 to Wednesday 29 Aug 2012:

A northwest-southeast split in the weather looks likely to dominate through this period. The north and west will be mostly unsettled, often with strong winds, and a mixture of sunshine and showers at first, with some more persistent rain later next week. Less showery in the south and east where it will be warm at times. Towards the end of the month, it looks unsettled in all areas, but with some short-lived drier and brighter periods. Daytime temperatures by this stage largely around average or a little below, with the best chance of occasional above average temperatures in the southeast. As the Paralympics draw closer the Met Office will have local forecasts so that everyone can make the most of the Games experience.

Updated: 1159 on Wed 15 Aug 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 21 Aug 2012 to Thursday 30 Aug 2012:

A northwest-southeast split in the weather looks likely to dominate through this period. The north and west will be mostly unsettled, often with strong winds, and a mixture of sunshine and showers at first, with some more persistent rain later next week. Less showery in the south and east where it will be warm at times. Towards the end of the month, it looks unsettled in all areas, but with some short-lived drier and brighter periods. Daytime temperatures by this stage largely around average or a little below, with the best chance of occasional above average temperatures in the southeast. As the Paralympics draw closer the Met Office will have local forecasts so that everyone can make the most of the Games experience.

Updated: 1146 on Thu 16 Aug 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 22 Aug 2012 to Friday 31 Aug 2012:

A northwest-southeast split in the weather looks likely to dominate through this period. The north and west will be mostly unsettled, often with strong winds, and a mixture of sunshine and showers at first, with some more persistent rain later next week and during the bank holiday weekend. Less showery in the south and east where it will be warm at times. Towards the end of the month, it looks unsettled in all areas, but with some short-lived drier and brighter periods. Daytime temperatures by this stage largely around average or a little below, with the best chance of occasional above average temperatures in the southeast. As the Paralympics draw closer the Met Office will have local forecasts so that everyone can make the most of the Games experience.

Updated: 1157 on Fri 17 Aug 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Thursday 23 Aug 2012 to Saturday 1 Sep 2012:

The northwestern half of the UK will be mostly unsettled, often with strong winds. Showery conditions are likely to prevail, with some more persistent rain around the first weekend, although some drier and brighter spells are possible too. Less unsettled in the south and east where it will be warm at times, although even here some spells of persistent rain are likely, mainly during the bank holiday weekend. Continuing changeable right up to the beginning of September. Daytime temperatures generally around average or a little below, with the best chance of occasional above average temperatures in the southeast. As the Paralympics draw closer the Met Office will have local forecasts so that everyone can make the most of the Games experience.

Updated: 1157 on Sat 18 Aug 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Terminal Moraine]

The Met' Office seem to be having serious problems with their site today; there have been no text forecasts available all day for the regions or the mountain areas.

[minus 9]

yes i thought there was a problem with my phone.

[Terminal Moraine]

Still no text forecasts or weather warnings on the Met' Office site. Surely it's not beyond the wit of their I.T experts to solve the problem within 24 hours; perhaps they don't work weekends.

I'll bet there are people on here who could have sorted it out more quickly.

[johnholmes]

hi TM

It may be your own pc problem as I have been able to look at all their forecasts including 6-15 and 16-30 day outlooks?

[Iceberg]

Met office have mentioned on their site via twitter that they are having technical issues, myiphone app isn't working and hasn't since Friday.

[Terminal Moraine]

hi TM

It may be your own pc problem as I have been able to look at all their forecasts including 6-15 and 16-30 day outlooks?

Don't think it's my p.c, John, as it's the same on the p.c at work.

Ian Fergusson mentioned in another thread yesterday that the Met' Office were having problems; it seems peculiar that you're able to access their forecasts though, perhaps it's a regional problem.

Nevertheless I'd have thought they would have sorted it by now.

[Evening thunder]

I've been having the same problems yesterday and today, there were a couple occasions where the text forecasts and warnings page were accessible for me but later on they were unavailable again.

[syed2878]

i've been getting the same probs it's the met website that's playing up.

[Stuart]

text forecast working on the old site

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Friday 24 Aug 2012 to Sunday 2 Sep 2012:

It will become generally very unsettled, often with strong winds, especially in the west or southwest. Although perhaps dry in eastern and central parts initially, showers or longer spells of rain will spread to all parts, but some drier and brighter spells are possible too. Heavy showers are likely with a risk of thunder and some locally heavy downpours from Saturday into the early part of the following week. Continuing changeable right up to the beginning of September. Daytime temperatures generally around average or a little below, with the best chance of occasional above average temperatures in the southeast. As the Paralympics draw closer the Met Office will have local forecasts so that everyone can make the most of the Games experience.

Updated: 1150 on Sun 19 Aug 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Saturday 25 Aug 2012 to Monday 3 Sep 2012:

Although there will be some bright or sunny periods, conditions over the Bank Holiday weekend look likely to be generally unsettled. Showers or longer spells of rain are expected, the showers perhaps thundery in places with a risk of some locally heavy downpours. It is also likely to be quite windy at times. The changeable, unsettled weather is then expected to then continue through the last few days of August onwards into early September. However, occasional drier, calmer interludes are possible. Daytime temperatures generally around or a little below average, but feeling noticeably cooler in wet and windy weather. As the Paralympics draw closer the Met Office will have local forecasts so that everyone can make the most of the Games experience.

Updated: 1119 on Mon 20 Aug 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Alex]

I hate to say it but the met office have been rather poor on this output in the last few weeks, for example yesterday it was meant to be very unsettled now it's generally unsettled for next weekend and last weekend they described this one was meant to be very unsettled and a few days before that there was no sign of sunny warm conditions again. I don't think they meantioned hot once in the 6-15 day output and then all of sudden on Friday the weekend was due to be hot in the 1-2 day output. In my eyes - poor.

[johnholmes]

I hate to say it but the met office have been rather poor on this output in the last few weeks, for example yesterday it was meant to be very unsettled now it's generally unsettled for next weekend and last weekend they described this one was meant to be very unsettled and a few days before that there was no sign of sunny warm conditions again. I don't think they meantioned hot once in the 6-15 day output and then all of sudden on Friday the weekend was due to be hot in the 1-2 day output. In my eyes - poor.

I think your definition of 'poor' as a touch OTT Alex. Certainly the word hot did not appear in forecasts but warm, very warm and humid were words used regularly for the SE in most outputs at the 6-10 day range from 6-10 days prior to its onset.

Of course the fact that NO model really picked up this has to be taken into account although I do stand by the anomaly charts that appeared to me to suggest an upper pattern conducive to heat from 8-10 days out. No human can pretend to forecast beyond 48-72 hours ahead at the most without recourse to the models.

I criticise UK Met when I think it necessary this time I think you are a touch unfair.

ps

I am still waiting for some kind of response from the senior forecast team to my e mail I sent!

[Alex]

I'm not so sure John, here is my analysis- as you say the possibility was there a week before and showing on the GFS output on 11/08 (12z & 18z)

Saturday's output 

11/08

Generally very unsettled with some sunny spells and showers but also longer spells of rain, probably most persistent over northeastern areas at first, though more likely in western areas later in the period. Although temperatures should be around average in the main and perhaps even a little above average in some southern districts, it will occasionally feel rather cool in brisk winds. There is even a risk of gales at times, especially early in the period. As we move towards the end of August, it looks like remaining unsettled in all areas, but with some short-lived drier and brighter spells. There is little sign of a return to the current warm and largely settled conditions.

Updated: 1209 on Sat 11 Aug 2012

Sunday's output - still not even a mention of warm only slightly above despite the GFS outputs.

12/08

Generally very unsettled with some sunny spells and showers but also longer spells of rain, probably most persistent in western areas. Temperatures should be around average in the main and perhaps even a little above average in southeastern districts, where there may be more in the way of sunny spells, although even here there is a risk of thundery showers for a time. It will occasionally feel rather cool in rain and brisk winds, particularly in the north and west. As we move towards the end of August, it looks like remaining unsettled in all areas, but with some short-lived drier and brighter periods. Daytime temperatures continuing to be largely around average, with the best chance of above average temperatures in the southeast. It may feel cooler overnight.

Updated: 1157 on Sun 12 Aug 2012

Monday's output - warm is mentioned but nothing like very warm/hot again despite GFS and now GEM and ECM guidance.

13/08

Generally unsettled with sunny spells and showers at first but also longer spells of rain, probably most persistent in northern and western areas. Temperatures should be around average in the main, perhaps rather cool in some northwestern areas, emphasised by brisk winds . However it does seem likely to be warm and humid in southeastern areas around next weekend, with more in the way of dry weather and sunny spells, although there is a risk of scattered heavy, thundery showers breaking out. As we move towards the end of August, it looks like remaining unsettled in all areas, but with some short-lived drier and brighter periods. Daytime temperatures by this stage largely around average or a little below, with the best chance of occasioanl above average temperatures in the southeast.

Updated: 1247 on Mon 13 Aug 2012

Only when we get to Tuesday, very warm is mentioned then during the week highs of 24c were shown until Thursday when it started to rise. Friday was the first time 30c was mentioned as a possibility and we end up with 32c?

[legritter]

I would like to add that the Met office in my opinion do a very professional job in their 16 day outlook . the very short heatwave that was enjoyed by those that got it could have very easily have been a continental envent [our friends across the channel ]but in their forecast they did cover the eventuality.take present forecast and read between the lines and there is every possibility that this weekend into next week COULD produce vast amounts of rain .on the other hand the lows could stay further west and with a slight pressure rise the outcome could be totally different . I honestly feel that the met office should only attempt a 10 day outlook .i know they have plenty of information at hand but a 10 day outlook would im sure be sufficient for most members of the public , although we are the public [net weather members ] we can atleast discuss the charts on offer and read between the lines so to speak .although i spent along time in north america /canada back in may /july i did a study on 11 day forecasts in good old uk and canada ,and those last 3/4 days in canada brought heatwaves not forecast ,where our forcasters were virtually spot on ,the pattern in canada was all over the place .but thats the nature of weather ,just my thoughts cheers

[Alex]

I would like to add that the Met office in my opinion do a very professional job in their 16 day outlook . the very short heatwave that was enjoyed by those that got it could have very easily have been a continental envent [our friends across the channel ]but in their forecast they did cover the eventuality.take present forecast and read between the lines and there is every possibility that this weekend into next week COULD produce vast amounts of rain .on the other hand the lows could stay further west and with a slight pressure rise the outcome could be totally different . I honestly feel that the met office should only attempt a 10 day outlook .i know they have plenty of information at hand but a 10 day outlook would im sure be sufficient for most members of the public , although we are the public [net weather members ] we can atleast discuss the charts on offer and read between the lines so to speak .although i spent along time in north america /canada back in may /july i did a study on 11 day forecasts in good old uk and canada ,and those last 3/4 days in canada brought heatwaves not forecast ,where our forcasters were virtually spot on ,the pattern in canada was all over the place .but thats the nature of weather ,just my thoughts cheers

My point is that there was hardly a whisper of a possible short heatwave and they supported a very unsettled outlook even though the ensembles well supported the idea, I think the met do a great job but I think in the last few weeks the outputs have been poor - maybe the Olympics is to blame who knows?

[johnholmes]

I'm not so sure John, here is my analysis- as you say the possibility was there a week before and showing on the GFS output on 11/08 (12z & 18z)

Saturday's output

11/08

Generally very unsettled with some sunny spells and showers but also longer spells of rain, probably most persistent over northeastern areas at first, though more likely in western areas later in the period. Although temperatures should be around average in the main and perhaps even a little above average in some southern districts, it will occasionally feel rather cool in brisk winds. There is even a risk of gales at times, especially early in the period. As we move towards the end of August, it looks like remaining unsettled in all areas, but with some short-lived drier and brighter spells. There is little sign of a return to the current warm and largely settled conditions.

Updated: 1209 on Sat 11 Aug 2012

Sunday's output - still not even a mention of warm only slightly above despite the GFS outputs.

12/08

Generally very unsettled with some sunny spells and showers but also longer spells of rain, probably most persistent in western areas. Temperatures should be around average in the main and perhaps even a little above average in southeastern districts, where there may be more in the way of sunny spells, although even here there is a risk of thundery showers for a time. It will occasionally feel rather cool in rain and brisk winds, particularly in the north and west. As we move towards the end of August, it looks like remaining unsettled in all areas, but with some short-lived drier and brighter periods. Daytime temperatures continuing to be largely around average, with the best chance of above average temperatures in the southeast. It may feel cooler overnight.

Updated: 1157 on Sun 12 Aug 2012

Monday's output - warm is mentioned but nothing like very warm/hot again despite GFS and now GEM and ECM guidance.

13/08

Generally unsettled with sunny spells and showers at first but also longer spells of rain, probably most persistent in northern and western areas. Temperatures should be around average in the main, perhaps rather cool in some northwestern areas, emphasised by brisk winds . However it does seem likely to be warm and humid in southeastern areas around next weekend, with more in the way of dry weather and sunny spells, although there is a risk of scattered heavy, thundery showers breaking out. As we move towards the end of August, it looks like remaining unsettled in all areas, but with some short-lived drier and brighter periods. Daytime temperatures by this stage largely around average or a little below, with the best chance of occasioanl above average temperatures in the southeast.

Updated: 1247 on Mon 13 Aug 2012

Only when we get to Tuesday, very warm is mentioned then during the week highs of 24c were shown until Thursday when it started to rise. Friday was the first time 30c was mentioned as a possibility and we end up with 32c?

I accept you view as it stands Alex but I find it best to try and read between the lines based to some extent on the data that is widely available from a variety of sources.

Having said that I got this back in response to my comment about their use of too many words, NOT Olympics, as it was past that.

Thank you for your emails in connection with a particular phrase which is currently part of our 16-30 day UK outlook and can be found here: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/?tab=5day . Your feedback has been passed to me for review and I have investigated your concerns.(the person is the senior resonse manager in the e mail office).

The phrase in question was added for a specific reason; this was because the 16-30 day UK outlook was being interpreted and used in some quarters as being specifically for London during the period of the Olympics and Paralympics. This is misleading and something we wish to avoid.

This is a UK wide outlook and soon after the Paralympics have finished, the phrase will be withdrawn.

As my e mail was addressed to a particular person, who I had worked with, to get this reply makes me feel at the moment like 'a plague on your house Met' I have many times stood up for them, indeed my comment to you was doing just that, but as far as I am concerned after this reply they can do what they want and anyone on here can say what they wish. I will write to the person I addressed the e mail too and ask if he did receive it, if so why the discourtey of not replying.

Sad it would not have been dealt with in this way when I was a forecaster with them-but there we are no doubt its progress!

Edited August 20, 2012 by johnholmes

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Sunday 26 Aug 2012 to Tuesday 4 Sep 2012:

Breezy conditions with rain or heavy showers should gradually clear eastwards during Sunday, with a brief drier and brighter period likely for some later Sunday and early Monday. Then more cloud, wind and persistent rain looks likely to spread in from the west later. The unsettled weather will affect most places during the last few days of August, with more heavy rain and strong winds in places. Into September, there are signals that occasionally drier and more settled conditions will move into southern areas, with the unsettled weather more likely in the north. Temperatures should remain generally around normal throughout, but occasionally cooler in wetter, windier spells. As the Paralympics draw closer the Met Office will have local forecasts so that everyone can make the most of the Games experience.

Updated: 1136 on Tue 21 Aug 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Monday 27 Aug 2012 to Wednesday 5 Sep 2012:

Initially fine and mainly dry across eastern parts on Monday, but cloud, strong winds and rain in the west will spread eastwards later, affecting most parts by Tuesday. Some brighter weather will follow, but with heavy, blustery showers and gusty winds. The unsettled conditions will continue for most of the week, with bands of rain or showers, strong winds and some drier and brighter periods. Towards the end of the week and into the next, occasionally drier and more settled conditions look likely to influence southern parts, with unsettled weather more likely in the north. Temperatures should remain average, but occasionally cooler in wetter, windier spells. As the Paralympics draw closer the Met Office will have local forecasts so that everyone can make the most of the Games experience.

Updated: 1151 on Wed 22 Aug 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 28 Aug 2012 to Thursday 6 Sep 2012:

Bands of locally heavy rain will spread eastwards on Tuesday. Clearer, brighter conditions following, but with blustery showers, heavy in the north and west. Rain or showers on Wednesday. Windy, with gales in the north and west. Remaining cool, breezy and unsettled towards the end of the week. Into the following week, occasionally drier and more settled conditions look likely at times, particularly in the south, with unsettled weather more likely in the northwest where it will be windy at times. Temperatures generally below normal, with some cool nights developing, but occasionally warm in fine spells in the south. As the Paralympics draw closer the Met Office will have local forecasts so that everyone can make the most of the Games experience.

Updated: 1210 on Thu 23 Aug 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html