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October Cet

damianslaw

By damianslaw
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Weather-history Maestro

Weather-history

Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
Posted (edited)

Months below the 1971-2000 average since January 2001

Oct 2010: 10.3 (-0.1)

Aug 2010: 15.3 (-0.9)

May 2010: 10.7 (-0.6)

Mar 2010: 6.1 (-0.2)

Feb 2010: 2.8 (-1.4)

Jan 2010: 1.4 (-2.8]

Dec 2009: 3.1 (-2.0)

Jul 2009: 16.1 (-0.4)

Feb 2009: 4.1 [-0.1]

Jan 2009: 3.0 [-1.2]

Dec 2008: 3.5 (-1.6)

Oct 2008: 9.7 (-0.7)

Sep 2008: 13.5 (-0.2)

Jul 2008: 16.2 (-0.3)

Jun 2008: 13.9 (-0.2)

Apr 2008: 7.9 (-0.2)

Mar 2008: 6.1 (-0.2)

Dec 2007: 4.9 (-0.2)

Aug 2007: 15.4 (-0.8]

July 2007: 15.2 (-1.3)

Aug 2006: 16.1 (-0.1)

Mar 2006: 4.9 (-1.4)

Feb 2006: 3.7 (-0.5)

------------------------------------------ Decade halfway point

Dec 2005: 4.4 (-0.7)

Nov 2005: 6.2 (-0.7)

July 2004: 15.8 (-0.7)

Dec 2003: 4.8 (-0.3)

Oct 2003: 9.2 (-1.2)

Feb 2003: 3.9 (-0.3)

Oct 2002: 10.1 (-0.3)

Jul 2002: 16.0 (-0.5)

Dec 2001: 3.6 (-1.5)

Sep 2001: 13.4 (-0.3)

Apr 2001: 7.7 (-0.4)

Mar 2001: 5.2 (-1.1)

Jan 2001: 3.2 (-1.0)

Split this period in half but note the number of below average months since the start of 2008.

Edited by Mr_Data
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Fozfoster Seasoned

Fozfoster

Posted
  • Location: warwick 74m. asl
  • Weather Preferences: WHITE GOLD
  • Location: warwick 74m. asl
Posted

If, and a big if, November and December are below average then almost twice has many for the second half of the decade .

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summer blizzard Maestro

summer blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
Posted

Months below the 1971-2000 average since January 2001

Oct 2010: 10.3 (-0.1)

Aug 2010: 15.3 (-0.9)

May 2010: 10.7 (-0.6)

Mar 2010: 6.1 (-0.2)

Feb 2010: 2.8 (-1.4)

Jan 2010: 1.4 (-2.8]

Dec 2009: 3.1 (-2.0)

Jul 2009: 16.1 (-0.4)

Feb 2009: 4.1 [-0.1]

Jan 2009: 3.0 [-1.2]

Dec 2008: 3.5 (-1.6)

Oct 2008: 9.7 (-0.7)

Sep 2008: 13.5 (-0.2)

Jul 2008: 16.2 (-0.3)

Jun 2008: 13.9 (-0.2)

Apr 2008: 7.9 (-0.2)

Mar 2008: 6.1 (-0.2)

Dec 2007: 4.9 (-0.2)

Aug 2007: 15.4 (-0.8]

July 2007: 15.2 (-1.3)

Aug 2006: 16.1 (-0.1)

Mar 2006: 4.9 (-1.4)

Feb 2006: 3.7 (-0.5)

------------------------------------------ Decade halfway point

Dec 2005: 4.4 (-0.7)

Nov 2005: 6.2 (-0.7)

July 2004: 15.8 (-0.7)

Dec 2003: 4.8 (-0.3)

Oct 2003: 9.2 (-1.2)

Feb 2003: 3.9 (-0.3)

Oct 2002: 10.1 (-0.3)

Jul 2002: 16.0 (-0.5)

Dec 2001: 3.6 (-1.5)

Sep 2001: 13.4 (-0.3)

Apr 2001: 7.7 (-0.4)

Mar 2001: 5.2 (-1.1)

Jan 2001: 3.2 (-1.0)

Split this period in half but note the number of below average months since the start of 2008.

2008 has the most at the moment with 7 below average months (yet it still finished slightly above average for the year as a whole), 2010 has 6, so while a below average year is guranteed, we need another below average month to match 2008.

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Gavin P Explorer

Gavin P

Posted
  • Location: W. Northants
  • Location: W. Northants
Posted

Looking at Mr Data's list it definatly seems something switched from July 2007 doesn't it?

As 2007 coincide's with the switch to the cold PDO phase I would say that is the number one culprite as BFTP and others suggests. You do also have to look at the extended solar minima, particularly in relation to the winter temperatures.

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Typhoon John Enthusiast

Typhoon John

Posted
  • Location: Bethnal Green
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold
  • Location: Bethnal Green
Posted

Looking at Mr Data's list it definatly seems something switched from July 2007 doesn't it?

As 2007 coincide's with the switch to the cold PDO phase I would say that is the number one culprite as BFTP and others suggests. You do also have to look at the extended solar minima, particularly in relation to the winter temperatures.

It's all really fascinating isn't it? You'd have to give credit to the PDO switch and low solar and congratulations to everyone who has been saying this since 2005.

It's like one big experiment and we get to live in the middle of it and experience the results. :D

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Glacier Point Accomplished

Glacier Point

Posted
  • Location: Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Forecaster Centaurea Weather
  • Location: Worcestershire
Posted

One wonders how the CET series is going to fare if we get a strong and persistent Nina episode this winter followed by a double Nina into 2011 ?

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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

Can anyone remember the time when we were wondering when we'd get another next month below average??

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SteveB Veteran

SteveB

Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
Posted

Or an annual CET below 10c. Looks like 2 in 3 years coming up.

Maybe in the next few years we could get a CET below 9c, the last time that happened was 1986.

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Gavin P Explorer

Gavin P

Posted
  • Location: W. Northants
  • Location: W. Northants
Posted

One wonders how the CET series is going to fare if we get a strong and persistent Nina episode this winter followed by a double Nina into 2011 ?

For us, I think there tends to be a cooling lag with La Nina, so our coldest year will probably be the year at the end of the La Nina - Think 2001 after the 98-00 La Nina period for instance. Assuming we get a double dip for 2011/2012 then I'd be looking at our coldest year being 2013. 2013 our first sub 9c year since 1986?

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J10 Veteran

J10

Posted
Posted

The figures are in and well done to virtualsphere, Polar Side, Ben_Cambs who got 10.3c spot on. In the Autumn comp SteveB leads from

JACKONE and Polar Side.

While in the overall Comp Stu_London leads from Polar Side with Norrance some way back in 3rd. So it is a two horse for this years title between Stu London and Polar Side.

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Snowstorm1 Apprentice

Snowstorm1

Posted
  • Location: Thornaby-on-Tees
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Showers, Snowy Periods , Blizzards, Cold Weather
  • Location: Thornaby-on-Tees
Posted

Thankyou Jackone for updating the results so quickly. There is a mini competition going for third place with me and Paul T fighting it out but four people in 5th , 6th, 7th and 8th have a small glimmer of a chance of coming in third so the bronze is up for grabs! :clap:

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Norrance Maestro

Norrance

Posted
  • Location: Dundee
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms, gales. All extremes except humidity.
  • Location: Dundee
Posted

Thankyou Jackone for updating the results so quickly. There is a mini competition going for third place with me and Paul T fighting it out but four people in 5th , 6th, 7th and 8th have a small glimmer of a chance of coming in third so the bronze is up for grabs! :clap:

Hasn't the person currently in 3rd place also got a chance? :cc_confused:

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J10 Veteran

J10

Posted
Posted

Hasn't the person currently in 3rd place also got a chance? :cc_confused:

There is such a big difference it seems unlikely (but I haven't checked possible scores for November) however finishing 3rd is a great achievement in itself.

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Stu_London Rising Star

Stu_London

Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
Posted

The figures are in and well done to virtualsphere, Polar Side, Ben_Cambs who got 10.3c spot on. In the Autumn comp SteveB leads from

JACKONE and Polar Side.

While in the overall Comp Stu_London leads from Polar Side with Norrance some way back in 3rd. So it is a two horse for this years title between Stu London and Polar Side.

Thanks for your efforts Jackone

I thought I had this comp sewn up back in August, but fair play to Polar Side who has had some phenomenal recent predictions

I'm in at 6.8C for November and Polar Side has 6.7C, so it's going to go right down to the wire.

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chionomaniac Maestro

chionomaniac

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
Posted

Thanks for your efforts Jackone

I thought I had this comp sewn up back in August, but fair play to Polar Side who has had some phenomenal recent predictions

I'm in at 6.8C for November and Polar Side has 6.7C, so it's going to go right down to the wire.

Looks like a bit of tactical predictive work may have been going on there! Who voted second?

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summer blizzard Maestro

summer blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
Posted

Well, for the fourth month in a row, i was within 0.6C at just 0.4C out this month, so i am joint 7th for the Autumn competition.

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Kentish Man Contributor

Kentish Man

Posted
  • Location: Teston, Kent (3mls SW of Maidstone)
  • Location: Teston, Kent (3mls SW of Maidstone)
Posted

Nothing to do with the competition but Climate UK have released their October stats based on the Manley series.

CET: (Oct 1-31): 10.4°C ( 0.0 degC)

E&W Rain: (Oct 1-31): 76.9mm ( 81 per cent)

E&W Sun: (Oct 1-31): 125.1hr (111 per cent)

© Philip Eden

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Norrance Maestro

Norrance

Posted
  • Location: Dundee
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms, gales. All extremes except humidity.
  • Location: Dundee
Posted

There is such a big difference it seems unlikely (but I haven't checked possible scores for November) however finishing 3rd is a great achievement in itself.

Sorry Jackone, I was responding to the post just above from Snowstorm relating to the battle for third place. I can see that there is little chance of upsetting the top two.

Can I add my thanks also for organising this.

Cheers

Nor.

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Snowstorm1 Apprentice

Snowstorm1

Posted
  • Location: Thornaby-on-Tees
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Showers, Snowy Periods , Blizzards, Cold Weather
  • Location: Thornaby-on-Tees
Posted (edited)

Sorry Jackone, I was responding to the post just above from Snowstorm relating to the battle for third place. I can see that there is little chance of upsetting the top two.

Can I add my thanks also for organising this.

Cheers

Nor.

Paul who I refered to is in third place so he is in pole position to keep the spot and me in 4th and people in 5th,6th,7th or 8th also have a chance to get third place :)

Edited by Snowstorm1
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