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October Cet

damianslaw

By damianslaw
in Spring Weather Discussion

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BornFromTheVoid Maestro

BornFromTheVoid

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
Posted

I think we could register a rise from today, been very mild here today at 17c and being cloudy tonight temps won't dip very far. Although I'm not in England but they will see rain today and tonight too.

Wouldn't say so. The minimum for today is 2.5C, and maxes in the CET zone will probably average in around 12.5/13C, so a drop to 10.3C is most likely in my opinion.

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Stu_London Rising Star

Stu_London

Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
Posted

Wouldn't say so. The minimum for today is 2.5C, and maxes in the CET zone will probably average in around 12.5/13C, so a drop to 10.3C is most likely in my opinion.

agree

a lot of the southeastern part of the cet zone remained in single figs all day

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The watcher Contributor

The watcher

Posted
  • Location: Bangor, Northern Ireland (20m asl, near coast)
  • Weather Preferences: Any weather will do.
  • Location: Bangor, Northern Ireland (20m asl, near coast)
Posted

Wouldn't say so. The minimum for today is 2.5C, and maxes in the CET zone will probably average in around 12.5/13C, so a drop to 10.3C is most likely in my opinion.

Suppose, early hours of this morning minimums would have been pretty low in some places, especially further East.

Was worth a try though....need to get it back to 10.6c+ before adjustments. I really want this one in the bag.

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Stu_London Rising Star

Stu_London

Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
Posted

Suppose, early hours of this morning minimums would have been pretty low in some places, especially further East.

Was worth a try though....need to get it back to 10.6c+ before adjustments. I really want this one in the bag.

Unfortunately for you, the models are showing a net rise of around 0.1C over the last 5 days. In fact only 2 of them are likely to be rising days, with 2 close to the running mean and 1 being a falling day

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summer blizzard Maestro

summer blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
Posted

Wouldn't say so. The minimum for today is 2.5C, and maxes in the CET zone will probably average in around 12.5/13C, so a drop to 10.3C is most likely in my opinion.

I actually think that we could see a drop of 0.2C for tommorow. There looks to be 2 rsing days and three stagnant days to me, so not much movement and a finish of 10.5C before a 0.2C ajustment taking us just below average.

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The watcher Contributor

The watcher

Posted
  • Location: Bangor, Northern Ireland (20m asl, near coast)
  • Weather Preferences: Any weather will do.
  • Location: Bangor, Northern Ireland (20m asl, near coast)
Posted

Unfortunately for you, the models are showing a net rise of around 0.1C over the last 5 days. In fact only 2 of them are likely to be rising days, with 2 close to the running mean and 1 being a falling day

I'll have to take it on the chin then...:aggressive:

But I'll not count me chickens yet, I'm 10.5c so won't be too far away.

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Stu_London Rising Star

Stu_London

Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
Posted

I actually think that we could see a drop of 0.2C for tommorow. There looks to be 2 rsing days and three stagnant days to me, so not much movement and a finish of 10.5C before a 0.2C ajustment taking us just below average.

Very little chance of a 0.2C drop tomorrow.

Hadley is 10.44 rounded down, so after a minimum of 2.5C, you would need 8.5C max to get to 10.25 (which might be rounded down to 10.2C)

Most of the zone saw double figures today.

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BornFromTheVoid Maestro

BornFromTheVoid

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
Posted

I'll have to take it on the chin then...:aggressive:

But I'll not count me chickens yet, I'm 10.5c so won't be too far away.

Better chance than my 9.3C anyway :lol:

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Snowstorm1 Apprentice

Snowstorm1

Posted
  • Location: Thornaby-on-Tees
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Showers, Snowy Periods , Blizzards, Cold Weather
  • Location: Thornaby-on-Tees
Posted

Overall Figure after adjuments im thinking 10C - 10.3C maybe?

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stewfox Accomplished

stewfox

Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
Posted

Overall Figure after adjuments im thinking 10C - 10.3C maybe?

Who ever said 10.2c have it nailed me thinks :rolleyes:

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The watcher Contributor

The watcher

Posted
  • Location: Bangor, Northern Ireland (20m asl, near coast)
  • Weather Preferences: Any weather will do.
  • Location: Bangor, Northern Ireland (20m asl, near coast)
Posted

Better chance than my 9.3C anyway :lol:

I'm not doing too bad on the whole years CET month values either....standing 18th or something at the minute.

Still....room for improvement I guess. :pardon:

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Kentish Man Contributor

Kentish Man

Posted
  • Location: Teston, Kent (3mls SW of Maidstone)
  • Location: Teston, Kent (3mls SW of Maidstone)
Posted (edited)

Hadley's headline figure remains on 10.4C today (Oct 1 -26).

It will be interesting to see how the last 5 mild days of the month will impact on the CET. After adjustments it should stay just below the 1961-90 average of 10.6C but not by much. The 71-90 average of 10.4C is touch and go I suspect.

Edited by Kentish Man
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Isolated Frost Rising Star

Isolated Frost

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: cold
  • Location: Sunderland
Posted

Here on the outskirts of Durham, the running mean is 9.8C, with the usual downward adjustment of 0.5C at the official Observatory at Durham Uni, which give the MO official figures.

I'm expecting the end total to be about 10.1C here and 9.6C at the Observatory, which would mean an above average month in comparison to 71-00, but below average to 61-90. I imagine the October CET will be very much similar when comparing it and showing it's anomalies.

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Kentish Man Contributor

Kentish Man

Posted
  • Location: Teston, Kent (3mls SW of Maidstone)
  • Location: Teston, Kent (3mls SW of Maidstone)
Posted

Hadley has nudged up to 10.5C today (Oct 1 -28). However Climate UK (Manley) is only on 10.1C for the same timeframe so I guess there is still is a fair chance there will be a reasonable downward revision at the end of the month. Circa 10.3C is still looking good.

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The watcher Contributor

The watcher

Posted
  • Location: Bangor, Northern Ireland (20m asl, near coast)
  • Weather Preferences: Any weather will do.
  • Location: Bangor, Northern Ireland (20m asl, near coast)
Posted

Well if thats to the 28th we've 3 days left and they all look like averaging above that each, so possibility it might still go to 10.6/10.7 before adjustments.

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Stu_London Rising Star

Stu_London

Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
Posted

CET up to 10.6C to the 29th (10.57 rounded up)

Today looks like being about 11-11.5C and tomorrow looks like 9.5-10C, so anything other than 10.6C or 10.5C as a pre-adjustment figure would be a major suprise.

Lots of cold nights in the month which seem to be a precursor to downward adjustments, so we can probably expect something in the low 10s as the final figure.

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damianslaw Maestro

damianslaw

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Author
Posted

Suspect the finishing number will be 10.3 with downward adjustment - so another very near average month, however, it masks the large variations with a mild start and cold mid-late period and a mild end. Its been a quite an interesting month watching the CET values yo-yo around from week to week.

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Thundery wintry showers Accomplished

Thundery wintry showers

Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
Posted

The N-W version is a "tracker", i.e. providing a rough estimate (usually slightly above what the official version says). As far as I'm aware, other than the Hadley Centre version, only Philip Eden's version over at Climate-uk makes a truly authentic attempt at an alternative measure of the CET as opposed to a rough approximation.

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