October Cet

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

7.2C: Bucks Snow

8.5C: White Xmas

8.9C: Adam Jones 416

9.3C: Na Damanta Sam

9.5C: Polar Gael

9.6C: Barry

9.7C: Lomond Snowstorm

9.7C: Scott 3108

9.7C: Backtrack

9.8C: Nu Design

9.8C: Snowstorm 1

9.8C: Wales 123098

9.8C: Optimus Prime

9.8C: Radiating Dendrite (Missed deadline)

9.9C: Cheeky_Monkey

9.9C: Pjb 120

9.9C: summer blizzard

9.9C: AtlanticFlamethrower

10.0C: Mullender 83

10.1C: Koppite

10.2C: Kidlington

10.2C: Tom D

10.2C: Snow Go

10.2C: Stew Fox

10.2C: Aderyn Coch

10.2C: Glacier Point

10.2C: Polar Continental (Missed deadline)

10.3C: Virtual Sphere

10.3C: Polar Side

10.3C: Kentish Man

10.3C: Ben_Cambs

10.4C: Paul T

10.5C: Steve B

10.5C: Milhouse

10.5C: The Watcher

10.5C: Jonathan F

10.5C: Stationary Front

10.5C: JACKONE

10.5C: artfularshavin

10.5C: Climate Man

10.6C: The PIT

10.6C: Lady Of The Storm

10.6C: reef

10.7C: Paranoid

10.7C: Stargazer

10.7C: Norrance

10.7C: Gavin P

10.7C: sundog

10.8C: Sunlover

10.8C: Fozfoster

10.8C: Stu_London

10.8C: Thundery wintery showers

10.8C: StormMad26

10.9C: Bottesford

10.9C: Terminal Moraine

10.9C: David Snow

10.9C: Jack Wales

10.9C: Don

10.9C: Tonyh

11.0C: Nimbilus

11.0C: Pete Tattum

11.0C: Damian Slaw

11.0C: DR Hosking

11.1C: Snowmaiden

11.1C: Lilbrockie

11.1C: DuncanMcAlister (Missed deadline)

11.2C: Snow-Man 2006

11.2C: Mr_Data

11.2C: Blizzards

11.2C: Sufc

11.2C: markbayley

11.2C: coram

11.3C: snowmaiden

11.4C: CroatianWeather

11.5C: Suffolk Boy

11.8C: Roger J Smith

11.8C: Chionomaniac

12.5C: Richard R

14.0C: Craig Evans

[Kentish Man]

Hi A.F. My 11.3C (see post 83) seems to have been omitted from your list.

[DAVID SNOW]

Hi A.F. My 11.3C (see post 83) seems to have been omitted from your list.

He no like you. :o

[Roger J Smith]

An October mean of 14 -- I've experienced that, in 1963 in southern Ontario, against the same long-term normal value of about 10.5 that you have. Doubt you will see one that warm though.

The average high was about 20 compared to a normal of 15 that month. You should get yourselves a continental climate, then some of these anomalies might actually happen once in a blue moon. At the same location, I have also seen snow lying on the afternoon of 30 Sept and 1 Oct (1974) so the range of climate is considerably larger (this is at 44 N as well).

I guess that October 1963 was nature's way of adjusting the mean annual temperature for that year. It was pretty much the warmest on record in most of North America. Oddly enough, October 1947 was apparently about the same (I wasn't around for that).

I don't have the figures handy but would estimate the standard deviation in the October CET must be about 1.2 or so, (C deg) but for the continental climate in North America the s.d. would be closer to 2 or 2.5. The record highs and lows are probably a bit further from the average too, but not that much. I've seen it as high as 31 C in early October at the location in question, and as low as -7 C at the end of the month. Recorded a maximum snowfall of 13 cms overnight 22-23 Oct 1969 that would still be the 24h record there (but lake effect snow belt zones a bit further west and north get 10-30 cm amounts in October). That 13 cms was gone by lunch time the next day. The location in question once had a 200-mm rainfall from Hurricane Hazel's extra-tropical remnant, that being in 1954. So it's a fairly extreme climate in its total range, but has long spells of weather that would be identical to what you get in central or southern England at this time of year. The similarity fades out in December and is totally gone from January to about early April, then it's back for a month or two before disappearing for a hotter and stormier summer season.

Here on the west coast, October is even more similar to yours, in fact the climate stats are probably just about equal, but we probably tend to get a bit more sunshine. The extremes are about the same. There is a distinct rainy season here in climatic terms, it usually sets in late in October and lasts to January. But in the first half of the month we tend to get about the same spells of weather that you get. We had a storm very similar to the 1987 hurricane storm back in October 1962 on the west coast here, except that it was actually the remnant low of a central Pacific hurricane named Freda, one of those Hawaii-theatre storms rather than a west Pac typhoon of which we often see the remnants but not at full force. That is known as the Columbus Day storm in Washington state (it happened late on 12 Oct 1962). Like your 1987 storm, this one took out thousands of large trees in the region and produced 120 mph wind gusts in some places.

[summer blizzard]

Certainly a warm first third to October, looking at the model output, the 1st-10th looks to average above 12C.

[The PIT]

Certainly a warm first third to October, looking at the model output, the 1st-10th looks to average above 12C.

We ain't got there yet just the 2nd.......

[Typhoon John]

7.2C: Bucks Snow

...

10.5C: Jonathan F

...

14.0C: Craig Evans

Just to note that I've changed my name so all my previous entries for the year are down as fozi999.

[summer blizzard]

No change from yesterday on the model outputs, CET likely to be above 12C to the 11th.

Hadley has us on 12.3C to the 2nd.

Edited October 3, 2010 by summer blizzard

[BornFromTheVoid]

12.5C to the 3rd

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Yesterday was 12.9C. Minimum for today is 7.7C and the maxima look to be around 16C so a chance of a drop to 12.4C for tomorrow seems likely.

Things then turn quite mild and going by the GFS 06z, we'd be at 13.0C by the 6th, 13.3C by the 8th and 13.4C by the 10th.

Can almost rule out my 9.3C at this stage, though if the charts shown if FI were to come off, I might still be in with a shout!

[BornFromTheVoid]

12.6C to the 4th

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Seems I was quite a bit off with the maxima yesterday, which ended up as 17.9C, causing the rise.

Minimum for today is 9.9C and maxima look somewhat similar to yesterday, so we'll most likely be at 12.8C by tomorrows update.

Minima tonight looks like being around 11.5C and maximum temps tomorrow around 16C, so another increase likely to 13.0C.

Going the the GFS 06z, we'll be at 13.1C by the 8th, 13.4C by the 10th, 12.9C by the 12th.

At this point, I'd guess somewhere between 12.2C and 12.8C by the 15th

[Thundery wintry showers]

I based my 10.8 prediction on a warm first half (12.5 or so isn't far off what I envisaged) followed by a cold second half, so I still feel I'm in with a shout here.

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

Updated list -

7.2C: Bucks Snow

8.5C: White Xmas

8.9C: Adam Jones 416

9.3C: Na Damanta Sam

9.5C: Polar Gael

9.6C: Barry

9.7C: Lomond Snowstorm

9.7C: Scott 3108

9.7C: Backtrack

9.8C: Nu Design

9.8C: Snowstorm 1

9.8C: Wales 123098

9.8C: Optimus Prime

9.8C: Radiating Dendrite (Missed deadline)

9.9C: Cheeky_Monkey

9.9C: Pjb 120

9.9C: summer blizzard

9.9C: AtlanticFlamethrower

10.0C: Mullender 83

10.1C: Koppite

10.2C: Kidlington

10.2C: Tom D

10.2C: Snow Go

10.2C: Stew Fox

10.2C: Aderyn Coch

10.2C: Glacier Point

10.2C: Polar Continental (Missed deadline)

10.3C: Virtual Sphere

10.3C: Polar Side

10.3C: Kentish Man

10.3C: Ben_Cambs

10.4C: Paul T

10.5C: Steve B

10.5C: Milhouse

10.5C: The Watcher

10.5C: Jonathan F

10.5C: Stationary Front

10.5C: JACKONE

10.5C: artfularshavin

10.5C: Climate Man

10.6C: The PIT

10.6C: Lady Of The Storm

10.6C: reef

10.7C: Paranoid

10.7C: Stargazer

10.7C: Norrance

10.7C: Gavin P

10.7C: sundog

10.8C: Sunlover

10.8C: Fozfoster

10.8C: Stu_London

10.8C: Thundery wintery showers

10.8C: StormMad26

10.9C: Bottesford

10.9C: Terminal Moraine

10.9C: David Snow

10.9C: Jack Wales

10.9C: Don

10.9C: Tonyh

11.0C: Nimbilus

11.0C: Pete Tattum

11.0C: Damian Slaw

11.0C: DR Hosking

11.1C: Snowmaiden

11.1C: Lilbrockie

11.1C: DuncanMcAlister (Missed deadline)

11.2C: Snow-Man 2006

11.2C: Mr_Data

11.2C: Blizzards

11.2C: Sufc

11.2C: markbayley

11.2C: coram

11.3C: snowmaiden

11.3C: Kentish Man

11.4C: CroatianWeather

11.5C: Suffolk Boy

11.8C: Roger J Smith

11.8C: Chionomaniac

12.5C: Richard R

14.0C: Craig Evans

[summer blizzard]

Models indicate that we will retain an above average pattern until at least the 13th, though there is a general trend for a cooler pattern afterward with the first sign of a northerly/easterly as early as the 15th.

[Stu_London]

Up to 13.0C to the 6th after yesterday came in at 14.6

Today and tomorrow look fairly neutral (slight rise today, slight fall tomorrow perhaps), but the 9th and 10th look like rising days leaving us around 13.3C or 13.4C by Sunday night.

After that we lose the really mild stuff in favour of something more seasonal. The period 11th-20th could easily see the CET draft back towards 12C, leaving the final third of the month to determine the outcome.

Very difficult to predict what might happen in the last third as +13C days are as likely as sub 7C days, although if I had to be pushed, I would say the landing range is probably now within the 10C to 12C.

[summer blizzard]

CET looks like remaining above average until at least the 14th, however signs of high pressure moving west are increasing.

[Kentish Man]

Latest CET update is 13.2C (to the 6th) at Met Office Hadley.

[reef]

We could well be sleepwalking into another quite a warm month. At 13.0C after just 6 days we'd already need only 9.7C to reach the 1971-2000 average by the end of the month. Not to mention the next 4 or 5 days could see increases if anything.

If we stay at 13.0C by the 11th, we'll then require 9.0C in the remaining 20 days.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think we'll probably be sitting on at least 13.0C by the 11th (slightly higher than I'd envisaged in my monthly forecast at the start of the month), but I also think we stand a good chance of seeing generally below-average temperatures for a while after that, so 9.0C in the remaining 20 days is far from out of the question.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Will most likely drop back to 13.1C tomorrow before the CET increases for a few days.

Going by the 12z GFS, we'll be at 13.4C to the 8th, 13.7C by the 10th, 13.3C by the 12th, 12.8C by the 14th... and if the 15th was as cold as it looks on this run, 12.5C by mid month.

[Stu_London]

CET back down to 13.1 to the 7th.

The 8th, 9th will both definately be rising days as the mininum for those days is not far off the running mean. By the 10th, I suspect we will be seeing 13.6C or maybe a little bit higher.

The mid part of the month looks more seasonal which should result in a steady decline. I would expect an average of 0.1C-0.15C to be trimmed each day, depending on how much cloud lingers at night which might keep the minimas up a bit.

The models are still keen on a cold shot for the final third of the month, which leaves almost all scenarios open, The GFS 0z gets us fairly close to a CET ice day on the 24th October which is a bit extreme, however a potent northerly followed by high pressure nudging in from the west could easily give a run of sub 5 days in the final part of October. We only have to look as far back as 2003, where the period from 21st to 31st averaged 5.8C and the 29th October 2008 averaged just 1.6C with settled snow in Central London overnight.

[Weather-history]

The GFS 0z gets us fairly close to a CET ice day on the 24th October which is a bit extreme,

CET ice day in October??

I point out that an ice day is where the maximum doesn't breech 0.0C. The mean can be below 0.0C but the maximum may be above 0.0C in which case it won't be an ice day.

A CET ice day in October would be extraordinary!

[guitarnutter]

How warm was yesterday?

Edited October 9, 2010 by guitarnutter

[Stu_London]

CET ice day in October??

I point out that an ice day is where the maximum doesn't breech 0.0C. The mean can be below 0.0C but the maximum may be above 0.0C in which case it won't be an ice day.

A CET ice day in October would be extraordinary!

You are or course correct.

A sub zero CET day, which won't of course happen as they are pretty much unheard of in October also.

How warm was yesterday?

The 8th came in at 15.2C

The 9th may be warmer still as the minimum was 13.9C, although the maxes were not as high as was predicted earlier in the week.

[Stu_London]

CET to the 9th - 13.5C

Somewhat remarkably yesterday came in at 15.0C, which means the maxima was only 16.1C - way down on what was forecast.

Last nights minima was 12.3C, so with maxes around 17C-19C, today we will probably be at 13.7C tomorrow, which will almost certainly be the peak value for the month.

[Cymro]

CET to the 9th - 13.5C

Somewhat remarkably yesterday came in at 15.0C, which means the maxima was only 16.1C - way down on what was forecast.

Last nights minima was 12.3C, so with maxes around 17C-19C, today we will probably be at 13.7C tomorrow, which will almost certainly be the peak value for the month.

Yes the tempreature hasn't been quite has high as expected this weekend, perhaps down to cloud cover in the east yesterday. Today however where they were forecasting 21/22 the temptreature will most propably only hit 18 at best. Sun is particulary strong this time of year.