October Cet

[Stu_London]

12.5C to the 14th (+0.8C anomoly)

Yesterday was 8.1C

Last night a bit milder at 8.5C, so only a 0.1C drop likely today, I would say.

[BornFromTheVoid]

12.5C to the 14th

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Yesterday was just 8.1C, lowest of the month so far, after a max of 10.5C, which is the losest since May 12th!

Minimum for today is rather high, at 8.4C and maxima are already higher than yeasterday, so probably just a small drop this time, to 12.4C.

Looks like we should expect further drops over the next week at least, with the chance of us being in the mid 10s in a weeks time.

Edited October 15, 2010 by NaDamantaSam

[Stu_London]

Downward pressure until on the CET looks likely until at least the last few days of the month.

[BornFromTheVoid]

I'd agree with that. I'd say people guessing around the low 10s are looking best at the moment.

The 06z would have us at about 11.8C by the 18th and and 10.7C by the 22nd

[Snowyowl9]

This month is looking like a very sharp cooling from now on 12.4c now 0.8c above average.

Looking persistantly on the cool/cold side,may end up lower than 2008 at 9.7c,but that was an exceptionally potent cold snap starting later on the 27th.

This looks less cold to then now,more west to NW-ly the further south you go,but looking to last longer,with less cold blips.

Could be a surprise or 2 next week.

[Cymro]

This month is looking like a very sharp cooling from now on 12.4c now 0.8c above average.

Looking persistantly on the cool/cold side,may end up lower than 2008 at 9.7c,but that was an exceptionally potent cold snap starting later on the 27th.

This looks less cold to then now,more west to NW-ly the further south you go,but looking to last longer,with less cold blips.

Could be a surprise or 2 next week.

Personally can see us getting down to around 9.5 maybe a tad lower if next weeks weather proves correct, especially with -3/-4 across the cet zone in the night.

[summer blizzard]

I must say i am suprised how big some of these drops are. With the CET at 12.4C now, and models in agreement, my comment of a few days ago is far too high, the models would see us at around 10.4C to the 26th, so a finish below 10C is now 50/50, though Phillip Eden is 0.3C lower, meanign an ajustment is likely, however i do not think that we will see the ajusted CET below 9.5C.

[Stu_London]

Down to 12.2C to the 16th after yesterday came in provisionally at 9.2C

Last night was 1.4C (the coldest since mid-May) so another 0.3C will probably knocked off today, perhaps 0.4C.

We should be sub 11C by the end of the week as most days look sub 10C and Wednesday and Thursday alone will probably knock off 0.7C.

The end of the month is still uncertain, although based on the current output the best the CET could hope for is some stability rather than any reversal of the falling trend.

If I was laying a one degree spread right now, I would go 9.6C to 10.6C

[Isolated Frost]

Down to 12.2C to the 16th after yesterday came in provisionally at 9.2C

Last night was 1.4C (the coldest since mid-May) so another 0.3C will probably knocked off today, perhaps 0.4C.

We should be sub 11C by the end of the week as most days look sub 10C and Wednesday and Thursday alone will probably knock off 0.7C.

The end of the month is still uncertain, although based on the current output the best the CET could hope for is some stability rather than any reversal of the falling trend.

If I was laying a one degree spread right now, I would go 9.6C to 10.6C

I am at 11.2dgC at my local station, I think 9dgC is accurate.

[Cymro]

I think 9.5 will be the lowest it could possibly get sadly for me at 8.9 but thats still an amazing drop from how the month began.

[Snowyowl9]

I`ll go for 9.9c finish but that may be optmistic a bit lower than it`ll end up.

ECM would do the trick,not GFS,maybe a tad lower it the N-ly keeps on.

[BornFromTheVoid]

I'd agree with Stu_London in saying a 0.4C drop looks likely after today, so 11.8C by tomorrows update.

Going by the GFS 12z it looks like we'll be at 11.7C to the 18th, 11.2C to the 20th, 10.8C to the 22nd and 10.7C to the 24th.

[Midlands Ice Age]

Hi everyone. I am new to this forum and this is my first posting.. I have been watching all your dis cussions with interest.

Is it too late to enter a guess for the CET?

If so I will go with 10.1. I was tempted to go with a bone shaking 7.5C to try and speed up on my new name, but decided I will wait another month for that.

.

[Snowstorm1]

Quite Happy so far with my estimate of 9.8C should be within 0.5C by end of the month I believe with what the current models scenarios are throwing up

[SteveB]

11.9c to the 17th, Stu was correct, 0.3 drop..

[summer blizzard]

GFS and ECWMF now both showing a few warmer days to the 27th, however we should be around 10.4C to the 27th.

[Fozfoster]

GFS and ECWMF now both showing a few warmer days to the 27th, however we should be around 10.4C to the 27th.

Yes SB, i saw that. Hopefully a slight rise to finish.

[The watcher]

Yes SB, i saw that. Hopefully a slight rise to finish.

to 10.5c *cough*

[Fozfoster]

to 10.5c *cough*

LOL. Close but i think 10.8c

[stewfox]

uld give by way of penalty

Hi everyone. I am new to this forum and this is my first posting.. I have been watching all your dis cussions with interest.

Is it too late to enter a guess for the CET?

If so I will go with 10.1. I was tempted to go with a bone shaking 7.5C to try and speed up on my new name, but decided I will wait another month for that.

.

Welcome to the forum.

I think your allowed 1 or 2 days grace with a penalty not sure what 15 days would give you by way of penalty , I’m sure someone can answer that .

My 10.2 c is looking good

Edited October 19, 2010 by stewfox

[Stu_London]

CET to the 18th is 11.8C after yesterday came in at 9.8C provisionally.

I can't see many rising days between now and the end of the month even if temps go above average

It should be remembered that average at the end of October is more like 8C than the 10.4C (or 10.6C 61-90) for the month as a whole

[BornFromTheVoid]

A drop to 11.6 will occur tomorrow if maxima average below 12.5C, otherwise, 11.7C.

After that we may see some large drops, the 06z GFS will have us at 11.3C to the 20th, 10.9C by the 22nd, 10.6C by the 24th and 10.2C by the 26th.

Below average looking more likely now and anyone guessing in the low 10s or high 9s looking best imo.

[Kentish Man]

As correctly predicted above Hadley is on 11.6C today (Oct 1 -19).

Just noticed for some reason I have two guesses entered on the masterchart 10.3C and 11.3C. Unfortunately my actual guess was 11.3C although I suspect 10.3C or a bit lower will be nearer the mark.

[Stu_London]

Going by the 06z GFS, everyday until the 29th October will be a falling day, with some big drops today, tomorrow and again on Sunday and Monday.

In fact is is possible that everyday until that date will be sub 10C with Saturday and Wednesday next week the only days that might just sneak over that mark. The 30th and 31st might be slight rising days, although it is too far out to nail anything yet and with the dataset so full by that time, a rise of 0.1C per day would be most that could be expected.

Below average (either 61-90 or 71-00) now looks quite long odds on and I would favour sub 10C with month end adjustments likely (Manley is -0.4C the provisional Hadley figure)

[BornFromTheVoid]

Will be interesting to see what kinda drop we get from now until the end of the month. The 06z GFS would have us at about 10.3C by the 26th.

Once again, I think anyone guessing in and around 10.0C is looking best at the moment.