October Cet

[Richard Lake]

Would certainly be great to see October return a CET at average or just below. There has been no real pattern to this year, up and down. Not very good at reading the charts as yet, but great to see a few new names posting this season.

I tend to look at the 16-Day Average Temperature Forecast in the datacentre here at NW, but I am right in thinking it is broken?

[summer blizzard]

As correctly predicted above Hadley is on 11.6C today (Oct 1 -19).

Just noticed for some reason I have two guesses entered on the masterchart 10.3C and 11.3C. Unfortunately my actual guess was 11.3C although I suspect 10.3C or a bit lower will be nearer the mark.

If we trust the ECWMF0z, only the 30th would see a rise, with the CET likely to finish between 9.8C and 10.2C before ajustments.

[BornFromTheVoid]

The 12z GFS was a very cold run and would have us at 10.0C by the 27th

Perhaps with a little luck and a big downward correction, my 9.3C could still be close!?

[Stu_London]

Hadley now down to 11.3C which is bang on average for the period 01Oct-20Oct

Yesterday came in at 5.3C

Last night came in at 0.8C so another low daily total is assured.

Expect 11.0C by tomorrow with further falls to come throughout the next week.

[TonyH]

Only a few people likely to be close this month the way its falling- sub 10c looks assured.

[Paul T]

Its been 9 years since i passed my driving test, and this year has been the earliest that i have ever bought de-icer. Forget your scientific analaysis, and for that matter all your data models....base global warming theories on the first day in 'winter' that you have to purchase de-icer - Well done to the CO-OP for stocking it in Plymouth; where the first frost is usually mid febuary, helped by a full eclipse, no wind, and no clouds to be seen for 404 miles.

The cet mean will be 11.0 tomorrow i think.

As i said a week or so back, some milder temperatures are likely toward the final week (i.e a 24hrs mean of 11oC ish).

Therefore, i believe that the final unadjusted cet will be the same as it is on the 25th/26th, and then a final downward adjustment of 0.2oC ish.

In summary - 9.8-10.3oC On the cards.

Edited October 21, 2010 by Paul T

[Weather-history]

Only a few people likely to be close this month the way its falling- sub 10c looks assured.

I wouldn't say it's assure yet. It depends how mild the last 3 or 4 days of October are by the looks of the model.

[TonyH]

I wouldn't say it's assure yet. It depends how mild the last 3 or 4 days of October are by the looks of the model.

Hope not...but my 10.9c is miles out!

[The watcher]

It's not really going to be colder than it was earlier this week, things will start to be cool-mild now so the drops won't be as substantial as we wear on through the weekend and next week, so I wouldn't expect big drops like 0.4c+ anymore...for that reason I don't think we will see sub10c, I think mid 10's to 10.1c is more like it.

[Stu_London]

based on the 06z gfs, we are heading for 10.1C before any adjustments.

most of the falls from where we are will be as a result of yesterday's low value and the period 24th-26th. Chance of a couple of days of rising temps, although temps don't look high enough to dramatically change the headline CET figure.

[Paul T]

11.0oC to Oct 23rd. -0.1oC anomoly.

23rd will prob come in around 9.5, so 0.1oC drop.

24th, 25th and 26th will be dropping days. perhaps 0.2-0.3oC shaved off on each day, So we will be down to 10.2 by 26th.

27th, 28th combined may add 0.1

29th, 30th and 31st will keep it at average.

10.2-10.4 before adjustments,

9.9-10.2 after adjustments.

[damianslaw]

My 11 degree projection now looks a fair bit too high. I underestimated the near to below average conditions of recent days.

I think somewhere within the low 10's will be the finishing mark, a milder end will put pay to chances of below 10 degrees - but still a slim chance. Once again we will see a near average CET - lost count of the number of months in the past two years which have finished very close to the CET mark.. a marked change from the run of consistently above average CET months we saw during the period 2002-2007.

[Isolated Frost]

My 9.8C (Nu Design) is looking good so far! I think it'll be exactly 10C ATM.

[reef]

Hadley is now on 10.9C after yesterday came in at 8.9C:

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Last night's minima was 1.5C and maxima today were generally below 11C so we could lose 0.2C on tomorrow's update.

[The PIT]

Drops for Monday and Tuesday and then a slow rise back up looking at the present runs. Next two nights are going to be the most important. Then it's all eyes on the downward adjustment. I'm going for 10.3 to 10.5C after adjustments.

[damianslaw]

A cold CET value likely today with maxes widespread between 8-11 in the CET zone and mins this evening in the low range 0-3 degrees.

Can see the CET dropping tomorrow as well, then a rise on Tuesday and Wednesday nothing major, thereafter I suspect average values possibly below average for the last two days.

[Stu_London]

Hadley is 10.7C today

Yesterday came in at 5.8C

Last night was -0.9C, so another fall (probably to 10.4C) today is likely.

Possible that we won't move too much more before month end thereafter, perhaps back up by 0.1C or so before adjustments.

The mild weather being brought forward a day or so has scuppered any chance of sub 10C, although with adjustments we should be just below the 30 year averages

[damianslaw]

Expect a signficant drop in CET values come tomorrow - easily 0.3 degree deduction thanks to the very cold night last night. Tomorrow will deliver some quite low maxima relatively speaking in south east parts which will help supress the CET. Mind wed, thurs and friday do look rather mild so I still doubt we will see 10 degrees, 10.2 seems a good bet at this juncture.

[Stu_London]

Hadley down to 10.4C to the 25th

We will probably bottom out for the month at 10.3C tomorrow.

I'd expect 10.3C-10.5C by month end before any adjustments

[TonyH]

Oh good it could edge up a bit not enough for my 10.9c though, I m more than happy to get within half a degree though, thats pretty good guesswork!

[The watcher]

I think we could register a rise from today, been very mild here today at 17c and being cloudy tonight temps won't dip very far. Although I'm not in England but they will see rain today and tonight too.

[Snowstorm1]

Does anybody have an idea wether adjusments will be upwards or downwards this month ?

[Optimus Prime]

Does anybody have an idea wether adjusments will be upwards or downwards this month ?

I've never seen them upward adjust since they started publishing the provisional figures in early 2006. Lowest downward adjustments have been around 0.1c and highest 0.4c.

Edited October 26, 2010 by Optimus Prime

[Snowstorm1]

I've never seen them upward adjust since they started publishing the provisional figures in early 2006. Lowest downward adjustments have been around 0.1c and highest 0.4c.

Thankyou for the fast response Ive got to admit Ive never picked up on them never upward adjustment so good spotting and Im hoping for a big downwards adjustment to get close to my guess of 9.8C

[The PIT]

I think we could register a rise from today, been very mild here today at 17c and being cloudy tonight temps won't dip very far. Although I'm not in England but they will see rain today and tonight too.

Yes there should be a rise from here on in. However GFS is showing temps 3c to 4c less than this afternoons BBC forecast. If that's correct there won't be such a swing upwards. IF the Beebs correct the mild spell will cancel out the last few days of cold and we'll be back where we started. GFS is already wrong for today for us showing 7c or 8c when it's 11.5C and rising.