New Iceage? Much Evidence? - Global Cooling

[jethro]

Good points, balls in your court sceptics.

How long has it taken to warm to the current global temperatures? A year, two years, ten years? The most noticeable rise has taken place over the last thirty years; why on earth would anyone expect it to take less than a similar time period to cool?

70% of the Earth's surface is covered by ocean, it takes a long time to warm up all that water, it would take at least as long, if not longer for them to cool down.

http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Instrumental_Temperature_Record.png

[kold weather]

Hi Kold, sorry have to disagree with a couple point (not that I want to )

The AMO was almost the same this year as in 98.

The PDO has been more negative than in 98.

El Nino was probably a good notch down on the scale from 98.

Yet their is a very very good chance that 2010 will be warmer than 1998 (almost a cert). At least according to the skeptics own satelite records.

We've had a negative PDO for the last 4 months.

Since 98 the world has on average seen a negative PDO, (not to mention lower SI) and still it looks like warming is ongoing.

I am not in way denying a link between PDO/AMO and global temps, but if we need a cold PDO, low solar and cold AMO just to get global temps to start going down we might be in a spot of trouble.

Yeah I'm not saying we aren't warming I just think its going to be less fast over the next 20 years as it has been over the last 20 years.

The AMO is a close match with 1998, the El Nino from 1998 was of course stronger, the PDO is a very interesting point as well.

As for your last point, yeah and its why I'd be less worried if we do keep warming despite what people may think...because if we go finally shift a little of the warmth from recent times people who already deny GW (and I wonder how many people still don't really believe AGW even now!) will try and use that as evidence and when the oceans shift back into thier positive phase like we saw between the 80s and early-mid 90s things will get pretty rough.

[pyrotech]

Personally i believe the Global warming is happening, there has been evidence, but its the reason why i disagree with.

It is my humble opinion that it has more to do with the very active sun spot cycle of the last 40 years with some effect from C02

now i believe that looking for answers to save our planet, scientists found a reason and stuck with it ( namely CO2)

Then political parties join in and it becomes a farce ( What new there)

So with a less active Solar cycle currently the Earth is likely to gradually cool, but the solar cycle is only partly predictable, recent events show we have alot to learn still about our nearest star.

What it does next will forecast our climate, We can all guess, but who really knows if current cycle will end in 2013 or 2012? how deep will it be? Nasa have amended the forecast many times and it shows just one thing - that we are still in our basic knowledge of our sun, it still can surprise us.

The arguments will remain, its like being conservative or labour, you believe or you do not. Even in the bad times you think your right. What i will say is to learn is to be open, listen to the oposition and keep an open subjective mind. But although i think the solar cycle is the dominant factor, i still believe that poluting our planet, is not the best way forward. So although governments MAY be taxing for the wrong reasons on pollution and generating huge amounts of money from it, the idea of stopping or lowering polution is a prudent step. Not because of global warming but because we have been poluting the air we breath and everything that life forms on our planet rely on.

[weather eater]

How long has it taken to warm to the current global temperatures? A year, two years, ten years? The most noticeable rise has taken place over the last thirty years; why on earth would anyone expect it to take less than a similar time period to cool?

70% of the Earth's surface is covered by ocean, it takes a long time to warm up all that water, it would take at least as long, if not longer for them to cool down.

http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Instrumental_Temperature_Record.png

Fair points J except that we are not even starting to cool, in fact we are still warming, being generous it could be that there is time lag on cooling starting to kick in.

[jethro]

Fair points J except that we are not even starting to cool, in fact we are still warming, being generous it could be that there is time lag on cooling starting to kick in.

I think all studies acknowledge that there is a lag, ocean stored heat doesn't simply dissipate overnight, or even in a year or two - it takes time.

When it comes to the impact of Solar variation upon ocean heat content, studies indicate a lag of between 10 - 30 years:

The temperature follows the sun

Interestingly, the regional temperatures followed the solar forcing with a time lag of 10 to 30 years. The PSI researchers' study is the first in which such a delay has been observed over a period of more than 500 years. Since the influence of solar activity on climate has not yet been fully resolved, such observations provide an important contribution to its understanding. One possible mechanism discussed by various authors, which might explain this average lag of 20 years, is the indirect effect of the sun on temperature changes involving ocean-induced changes in atmospheric circulation. Ocean water warms up to a higher level in places where the solar radiation is most powerful, i.e. in the sub-tropics and the tropics. The heat energy is carried from the lower to the higher latitudes by the ocean, then released back into the atmosphere. Because of the high thermal capacity of the oceans and the variable velocities of their currents, these processes are subject to considerable delay. Changes in the North Atlantic atmospheric circulation system, which is responsible for temperature changes in the Altai, may be initiated 20 years earlier by changes of solar radiation in the tropical oceans.

http://www.psi.ch/media/temperature

http://tenaya.ucsd.edu/~dettinge/white1.pdf

An often over-looked aspect of climate changed and AGW induced temperature rises is Soot, a change in albedo not only effects the Arctic but has an impact upon the global heat budget too.

A soot content of only a few parts per billion (ppb) is needed to reduce snow albedo by 1%. We estimate that soot reduces snow albedos about 3% in Northern Hemisphere land areas, 1.5% in the Arctic, and 0.6% in Greenland. Climate simulations show that this modest albedo effect would cause a global warming (see Fig. 3) that is more than a quarter of the warming observed in the past century

http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/hansen_10/

http://www.agu.org/journals/ABS/2009/2008JD011039.shtml

http://dust.ess.uci.edu/ppr/pst_ZGD08.pdf

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/sootinsnow/PDF_Documents/Soot%20in%20the%20Arctic%20Snowpack%20A%20Cause%20for%20Pertubations%20in%20Radi.pdf

[Daniel Miller]

Out of interest, our summers, why do they get wet and cooler towards the end but the start has temps in the 20s and 30s?

Will we start getting hotter summers and colder winters?

Edited December 22, 2010 by Daniel Miller

[Village]

We will never be getting hotter summers and colder winters here in the UK.

[mesocyclone]

It's quite clear the science of co2 is fraudulent. Water vapor is the most abundant greenhouse gas in our atmosphere. Co2 is a very small amount, loved by plants and used in many agricultural fields to increase yield. You breath it out as you read this and when you talk to your plants.

Come away from lobby groups, M.P's, government paid/employed scientists and a lot of well meaning but misinformed people and you see 30,000 scientists trying to sue Al Gore for his fraudulent hockey stick graph linking it with temps. The problem isn't co2, removing the earths lubricant will cause more problems than it being reabsorbed. The problem is many other pollutants and disrespect of our home. People see this which is why so many latch on to this political movement to tax you without understanding the problems.

We see news stories of green energy, Nuclear green energy, is that Orwellian or am i missing something? We have to get rid of that toxic waste product somewhere. How do we know a secret underground storage facility will never suffer an earthquake, landslide etc etc. Yet we have past scientists like Nikola Tesla that invented free electricity over 100 years ago which is still suppressed as you can't charge for it! lol.

To find out if we are indeed entering a period of global cooling you will have to judge for yourself. However global warming has always lead to global cooling. So my opinion on this subject is 100% we will enter a new Ice age, when though i couldn't tell you! As for the next few winters, a cooling trend is my call based on Solar Cycles, Volcanic Activity, looking out my window and current SST.

Meso

Edited December 29, 2010 by mesocyclone

[paul tall]

Just to talk about Tesla for a sec - there is no proof he invented "free energy". If he had, of course it could be charged for, as somebody would have to build the equipment to tap into the free energy and somebody would have to supply the energy to the grid - which would then charge use for use of the energy! In a capitalist society you cannot have free energy or free anything.

[Methuselah]

Guys,

Can we please stick to the topic? Whether or not Tesla invented free energy or the science of CO₂ is fraudulent, has nothing to do with evidence (lack thereof) of a new ice age...

Thanks

[Gray-Wolf]

Guys,

Can we please stick to the topic? Whether or not Tesla invented free energy or the science of CO₂ is fraudulent, has nothing to do with evidence (lack thereof) of a new ice age...

Thanks

Yo! Pete! The best of the season to ya!

Do you think if we had a 30c 'anomaly ,over the UK, for most of late Sept/Oct/early Nov folk would be talking about an upcoming 'ice age'?

Barents and Kara used to have extensive ice cover over summer now they have none. Barents and Kara used to have complete ice cover by Oct now they have very little. Barents and Kara used to see temps of -20c to -30c above the ice now the temp is 0c (unfrozen 'Sea' water).

Are these ,to you, the conditions we are looking for to promote ice sheet growth?

Greenland ,East Siberian , Bering and Beaufort have now been close to ice free for 5 summers now. The same 'phenomena' must be occuring (on some scale) there too?

30c 'anomaly'? That's BIG!!!

Edited December 29, 2010 by Gray-Wolf

[ZONE 51]

Whats on my mind at this moment is that if we have entered a new ice age (im thinking N-Europe/UK/East America) then the summers would be below average temperature or lower across the same areas, this summer in the UK was good for the SE, for at least 2months, but mostly cooler for all other areas North, the Azores high just clipped the South(?)when it should cover the UK, to give a good summer, its making me think that what if next summer the Azores high don't even clip the south, the jet more south. Is everything south? if it is then the signs are there..the new ice age.

[Guest]

Whats on my mind at this moment is that if we have entered a new ice age (im thinking N-Europe/UK/East America) then the summers would be below average temperature or lower across the same areas, this summer in the UK was good for the SE, for at least 2months, but mostly cooler for all other areas North, the Azores high just clipped the South(?)when it should cover the UK, to give a good summer, its making me think that what if next summer the Azores high don't even clip the south, the jet more south. Is everything south? if it is then the signs are there..the new ice age.

I would suggest that colder summers would lead to events where winter snow is not melting in places, leading up to a build up of ice and eventually glaciers. With time these would increase in size and have an effect on the local climate which would eventually lead to an effect on the overall climate of the region, resulting in even colder summers and winters until eventually we get snow year round.

[Iceberg]

Despite the poll, the first of the combined 2010 global data sets are out and it's the RSS satelite dataset (so no possible UHI here).

Christies etc will come out very soon with the others a bit later.

We have a 2nd warmest since 1979 according to the RSS with 0.51C compared to 1998 which was 0.55.

Here is the last 13 years or so plotted with the yearly average ENSO figure as well, slighly different plot to normal, but still useful IMO.

Some such as UAH (Christie) are very likely to have the warmest on record some will probably have it as the second warmest, but it's difficult to see much in the way of cooling at least atm globally.

[Village]

Its not news that the globe has been generally and ever-so-slightly warming for the past 11,000 years. The temperature graph is not a straight line and the rate of change varies. The current rate of warming is well within the bounds of what has always been accepted as natural.

The question that everyone should be asking is; why should the warming which has been occuring since the last ice age now be re-labelled as man made?

[jethro]

According to the latest info on the current Solar cycle, the most recent revised prediction from NOAA (sponsored by NASA) is for a peak of 64 to occur in 2013. This, coupled with the continuation of the prediction from Livingston & Penn, so far staying on course for sunspots to diminish in size so that they are no longer visible by 2015, makes the prospect of another minima on a par with at least the Dalton Minima a very real possibility.

A New Ice Age? Perhaps not.

A new Little Ice Age? Looking like an odds on favourite.

Has the warming in recent decades contributed enough to offset any expected cooling due to the quieter Sun? If this winter and last are anything to go by, I'd say no, not in this part of the world. Harsh winters in the years ahead is my expectation, perhaps not every year, but more often than not.

http://astronomynorth.com/aurora-forecast/solar-cycle-predictions/

http://solarcycle24com.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=general&action=display&thread=855&page=35

[Iceberg]

Its not news that the globe has been generally and ever-so-slightly warming for the past 11,000 years. The temperature graph is not a straight line and the rate of change varies. The current rate of warming is well within the bounds of what has always been accepted as natural.

The question that everyone should be asking is; why should the warming which has been occuring since the last ice age now be re-labelled as man made?

Happy for you to point out Vill where in the last 11000 years temps have increased as much as they have in the last 110 years.

BTW are you still expecting momentous things for 2012....

According to the latest info on the current Solar cycle, the most recent revised prediction from NOAA (sponsored by NASA) is for a peak of 64 to occur in 2013. This, coupled with the continuation of the prediction from Livingston & Penn, so far staying on course for sunspots to diminish in size so that they are no longer visible by 2015, makes the prospect of another minima on a par with at least the Dalton Minima a very real possibility.

A New Ice Age? Perhaps not.

A new Little Ice Age? Looking like an odds on favourite.

Has the warming in recent decades contributed enough to offset any expected cooling due to the quieter Sun? If this winter and last are anything to go by, I'd say no, not in this part of the world. Harsh winters in the years ahead is my expectation, perhaps not every year, but more often than not.

http://astronomynorth.com/aurora-forecast/solar-cycle-predictions/

http://solarcycle24com.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=general&action=display&thread=855&page=35

In some ways I do hope your right Jethro, in our part of the world we have certaintly felt the sting of winter of the last couple of years and it's been nice to behold. I think there is a problem though when comparing this to the world, as all we are really doing is thieving the cold from the likes of Greenland and parts of Canada due to the synoptics (i.e parts of Hudson have been over 10C above normal). If we continue to just take the cold from other parts it won't have much effect on global temperatures, as yet we haven't really seen global temperatures decreased by anything more than we would expect given the new era of modern la ninas. Once we see global temperatures going down due to a solar activity my faith in it will start to increase.

[Village]

Aha Mr Iceberg, you must have had a different name in another site! I still expect that anything could happen after the end of next year. The Solar minimum is just the beginning of a new era......our climate could change, but I am quite sure it will have nothing to do with theories about CO2. CO2 theoretics is simply a cosy bedtime story to help the kids sleep at night!

Edited January 4, 2011 by Village

[jethro]

In some ways I do hope your right Jethro, in our part of the world we have certaintly felt the sting of winter of the last couple of years and it's been nice to behold. I think there is a problem though when comparing this to the world, as all we are really doing is thieving the cold from the likes of Greenland and parts of Canada due to the synoptics (i.e parts of Hudson have been over 10C above normal). If we continue to just take the cold from other parts it won't have much effect on global temperatures, as yet we haven't really seen global temperatures decreased by anything more than we would expect given the new era of modern la ninas. Once we see global temperatures going down due to a solar activity my faith in it will start to increase.

Agreed, that's why I said "our part of the world". However, there is quite a lot of evidence for cooling in the Southern Hemisphere during the LIA; a quick Google turned up these links. I hasten to add, I've not read them, merely scanned so apologies to all if there's some tosh in there!

http://jrscience.wcp.muohio.edu/Weather/PaperProposalArticles/TheLittleIceAgewasitbigen.html

http://www.experiencefestival.com/little_ice_age_-_southern_hemisphere

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age

[Gowon]

Happy for you to point out Vill where in the last 11000 years temps have increased as much as they have in the last 110 years.

BTW are you still expecting momentous things for 2012....

In some ways I do hope your right Jethro, in our part of the world we have certaintly felt the sting of winter of the last couple of years and it's been nice to behold. I think there is a problem though when comparing this to the world, as all we are really doing is thieving the cold from the likes of Greenland and parts of Canada due to the synoptics (i.e parts of Hudson have been over 10C above normal). If we continue to just take the cold from other parts it won't have much effect on global temperatures, as yet we haven't really seen global temperatures decreased by anything more than we would expect given the new era of modern la ninas. Once we see global temperatures going down due to a solar activity my faith in it will start to increase.

Hi Ice.

It's not just our part of the world that has experienced record cold, I think the majority of the NH are feeling the effects of the quiet sun.

Regarding your point about Greenland and Canada, remember that high pressure cell that got stuck in Europe last summer dragging hot air all the way from N.Africa to Moscow, well wouldn't you call that thieving as well.

Anyway its good to see folks like you are actually starting show a little credence in solar influence.

[knocker]

By coincidence Liz Bentley from the RMS was on R4 this morning and put the current cold spell down to La Nina changing the position of the jet stream.

[Gowon]

By coincidence Liz Bentley from the RMS was on R4 this morning and put the current cold spell down to La Nina changing the position of the jet stream.

We had an El Nino last year and our winter was very cold, so I don't think La Nina is the cause of this cold winter.

[Essan]

Whatever the cause, I still think there's a strong possibility it's the same as whatever caused the severe winters, with months of frosts and rivers freezing over for weeks on end, during the height of the MWP

[Cycles]

We had an El Nino last year and our winter was very cold, so I don't think La Nina is the cause of this cold winter.

The La Nina does have a role in this winters weather, and the winer 5 months ago in the southern hemisphere. But cooling via natural cycles is a very big role player here.

[knocker]

We had an El Nino last year and our winter was very cold, so I don't think La Nina is the cause of this cold winter.

I'm not qualified to disagree with Liz Bentley but I don't think your point is logical.