Winter 2010/2011 Part 3

[kold weather]

It'll get the whole way across...freezing rain is very possible with this one so it needs close watching clearly!

An exceptional start to winter, I'm beginning to think this December may well challenge some of the colder Decembers...still a long way to go mind you but the pattern suggests a very cold first 15 days, esp with ht surface cold.

As long as we hold that surface cold and Europe is cold the sky really is the limit...in some ways we are starting this winter off in a far better position then even in 09-10 because Europe is far far colder and the SST's...the SST's are like 2-3C colder then at the start of last years cold spell!

[butler_son]

Manchester Winter Index kicked of yesterday

Current value after 1st, infinity :lol:

Its because I'm dividing by zero as the maximum was zero yesterday

MWI: 10 x [(number of days of falling snow)+(number of days of lying snow at 9am)+(number of minima at or below 0C)] divided by the mean winter maximum temperature

Last winter it was 197, this winter it will be flying out of the blocks.

Mr D - I take it, should a new ice age beckon, that a negative MWI would indicate an even colder winter than a highly positive one? Naturally, it probably won't occur, but if your winter mean does drop below zero, could lead to some interesting sums!

[Optimus Prime]

Things don't look like warming up too much over Europe

[greybing]

Manchester Winter Index kicked of yesterday

Current value after 1st, infinity :lol:

Its because I'm dividing by zero as the maximum was zero yesterday

MWI: 10 x [(number of days of falling snow)+(number of days of lying snow at 9am)+(number of minima at or below 0C)] divided by the mean winter maximum temperature

Last winter it was 197, this winter it will be flying out of the blocks.

what has the snow been like in irlam this cold spell.i am in eccles and i have to say there has not been much snow ,i assume values are similar where you are.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Here are some of the Irish station temps and anomalies over the past week...

Station Temp

Ballyhaise -0.9 (-6.8

Belmullet 1.9 (-5.7)

Gurteen -1.6 (-7.6)

Casement -1.7 (-7.8

Claremorris -0.7 (-6.6)

Cork Airport 0.1 (-6.6)

Dublin Airport -0.6 (-7.1)

Johnstown Castle 0.3 (-6.4)

Knock Airport -0.8

Malin Head 3.7 (-3.9)

Mullingar -0.6 (-6.5)

Oak park -1.4 (-8.1)

Roches Point 1.4 (-6.6)

Shannon Airport -0.3 (-7.2)

Valentia 1.9 (-6.4)

http://www.met.ie/latest/agricultural.asp

[The Future]

Piers Corbyn's Essence of Winter forecast. Surely make or break for him with this one:

[damianslaw]

Piers Corbyn's Essence of Winter forecast. Surely make or break for him with this one:

A very brave call I have to say, two months of the winter possibly turning out to be the coldest for 100 years, not sure which winter he is referring back to perhaps 1894/95?

He was right with last winter. If he is right again I think people will be waking up to Pier's views maybe more than they have in previous years.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Piers Corbyn's Essence of Winter forecast. Surely make or break for him with this one:

He did very well last winter.

BFTP

[Great Plum]

A very brave call I have to say, two months of the winter possibly turning out to be the coldest for 100 years, not sure which winter he is referring back to perhaps 1894/95?

He was right with last winter. If he is right again I think people will be waking up to Pier's views maybe more than they have in previous years.

He's not a natural presenter is he?

This has been an unreal cold spell so far - even Jersey has 11cm!

[ZONE 51]

What an amazing severe start to our severe cold winter ahead, everytime i see little pushes of milder air they get shoved away! its so cold across the UK across the lower layer with snow adding to the effect that the snow and its effects now plays a part in the weather, the more widespread the snowcover over UK and the Continent the more the effects, all this reflects sunlight and the cold layer lowers temps.

Edited December 3, 2010 by nimbilus

[Weather-history]

Whatever the final outcome of winter 2010-11 is, there is one clear thing now, we can still get potent wintry spells, it was only a couple of years ago people were speculating the extinction of such events. We saw with the winter of 2008-09, some potential and last winter goes without saying. Now, another potent wintry spell, one of the earliest for decades, which proves that last winter's severe wintry spell was not a one-off.

[sundog]

Who would have thought only 3 or 4 years ago during the terrible winters of 2006/07 and 2007/8 we would be getting this kind of cold this early in the season,it just goes to show how quickley things can change.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I've noticed a change in the way cold snowy spells are presented to us by news outlets. In the past, we'd hear all about the inconvenience and disruption that they were causing, but we'd also get a bit on the end about "it isn't all bad news for everyone" and see pictures of people sledging, throwing snowballs etc. This gave a fairly balanced perspective on the positive and negative impacts of the wintry weather.

In the last three winters I've been able to count on one hand the number of news reports/articles that have mentioned people enjoying the wintry weather- in at least 90% of cases only the negative impacts of snow have received any coverage at all- sensationalism over extreme weather events in general is also being accompanied by increasing emphasis on the negatives, even among the most reputable news outlets.

Snow does cause a lot of disruption, inconvenience and misery to a lot of people, particularly in prolonged/severe spells, there's no getting away from it, but at the same time I find the increasingly sensationalist and one-sided nature of coverage of snow (and indeed extreme weather in general) quite disturbing. Even if the proportion of the population that is enjoying the wintry weather falls to 10%, that's still 6 million people.

[greybing]

I've noticed a change in the way cold snowy spells are presented to us by news outlets. In the past, we'd hear all about the inconvenience and disruption that they were causing, but we'd also get a bit on the end about "it isn't all bad news for everyone" and see pictures of people sledging, throwing snowballs etc. This gave a fairly balanced perspective on the positive and negative impacts of the wintry weather.

In the last three winters I've been able to count on one hand the number of news reports/articles that have mentioned people enjoying the wintry weather- in at least 90% of cases only the negative impacts of snow have received any coverage at all- sensationalism over extreme weather events in general is also being accompanied by increasing emphasis on the negatives, even among the most reputable news outlets.

Snow does cause a lot of disruption, inconvenience and misery to a lot of people, particularly in prolonged/severe spells, there's no getting away from it, but at the same time I find the increasingly sensationalist and one-sided nature of coverage of snow (and indeed extreme weather in general) quite disturbing. Even if the proportion of the population that is enjoying the wintry weather falls to 10%, that's still 6 million people.

totally agree,as billy connolly states ,'there is no bad weather,just wrong clothing',

[19jacobob93]

Here in queensbury we now have 15 inches of snow and waist deep drifts in my garden! It got down to -14 lastnight and the icicles hanging off our roof are 2 feet long! Lastnight infact next door but ones guttering was ripped completely off the roof and crashed to the ground because of the weight of such huge icicles, ive just smashed all ours down to prevent this happening to us! Theres snow drifts 2 or 3 feet deep on peoples roofs and overhanging snow. It reminds me very much of when i went to the far north of finland! It just looks so dramatic! Although its pretty bad up here every year i have to say this is the worst ive ever seen!

Edited December 3, 2010 by 19jacobob93

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

The bad news is to 'sensationalise' global climate change...that is what its geared towards.

BFTP

[Eabie]

I've noticed a change in the way cold snowy spells are presented to us by news outlets. In the past, we'd hear all about the inconvenience and disruption that they were causing, but we'd also get a bit on the end about "it isn't all bad news for everyone" and see pictures of people sledging, throwing snowballs etc. This gave a fairly balanced perspective on the positive and negative impacts of the wintry weather.

In the last three winters I've been able to count on one hand the number of news reports/articles that have mentioned people enjoying the wintry weather- in at least 90% of cases only the negative impacts of snow have received any coverage at all- sensationalism over extreme weather events in general is also being accompanied by increasing emphasis on the negatives, even among the most reputable news outlets.

Snow does cause a lot of disruption, inconvenience and misery to a lot of people, particularly in prolonged/severe spells, there's no getting away from it, but at the same time I find the increasingly sensationalist and one-sided nature of coverage of snow (and indeed extreme weather in general) quite disturbing. Even if the proportion of the population that is enjoying the wintry weather falls to 10%, that's still 6 million people.

I think this article kind of helps illustrate your point:

"The snow is clearing... now for the ice age"

http://www.independe...ge-2151050.html

It begins with the rather gloomy statement: "Drivers and shoppers were told not to panic over feared shortages of fuel and food last night despite forecasters' predictions that arctic conditions would continue to grip the country for the whole of next week and beyond."

It also mentions, as a consequence of the snow, what I'm sure Britons have only contemplated in their darkest nightmares: a possible shortage of brussel sprouts.

Edited December 4, 2010 by Eabie

[Thundery wintry showers]

On the other side of the coin- how about this!!!

http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/terence-blacker/terence-blacker-its-not-just-the-landscape-that-snow-changes-but-a-whole-outlook-on-life-2151007.html

There was a link to that page from the article you posted. I could barely believe what I saw- it's a rare treat to see a tabloid article highlighting many of the advantages of snowy weather (and to an extreme- even I wouldn't take some of the arguments as far as she has!)

[Weather-history]

Manchester Winter Index now a mere -270 up to the 3rd.

Seen at least some lying snow here since Tuesday, which is pretty exceptional for this stage of the year. December 1981 cold spell hadn't even started yet at this stage, November 1985 lying snow disappeared at the start of December.

[Iceberg]

News about children sledging etc tends to get mentioned during the first day or two of a cold snap, tbh after this time, If I saw people sledging day after day on the news I would start to get rather annoyed. As after a day it simply isn't news anymore.

For the reporters the story moves on and the next step is to highlight the continued and mounting damage the cold spell is causing.

[yamkin]

The following is courtesy of Brian Gaze over at the 'TWO' forum

Mid month weather watch – heads up

Posted Sat, 04 Dec 2010 08:09:13

Staying predominantly cold during the week ahead with the risk of further frost, and sleet or snow at times, as well as the chance of some rain in southern areas today and tonight before it turns colder again. However, what I’m really interested in at the moment is developments beyond next weekend. The different computer models are showing good consistency, and the potential for the cold to increase its intensity again is there, and for that renewed surge to have the potential to last for at least 10 days. If correct, it means cold weather is likely to be hanging around even at Christmas. It looks incrasingly as though December could break a few weather records in the UK.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/latest.aspx

Edited December 4, 2010 by yamkin

[BornFromTheVoid]

Quite amazingly, the anomaly for the last 7 day in Oak Park, in Carlow is -10.1C. I thought seeing an anomaly like that for 1 day would be impressive but for a week that's just astounding! http://www.met.ie/latest/agricultural.asp

Several other Irish stations are on anomalies of around 8C or 9C also...

[Thundery wintry showers]

News about children sledging etc tends to get mentioned during the first day or two of a cold snap, tbh after this time, If I saw people sledging day after day on the news I would start to get rather annoyed. As after a day it simply isn't news anymore.

For the reporters the story moves on and the next step is to highlight the continued and mounting damage the cold spell is causing.

I don't remember the news taking that line at all until recently- e.g. there was a fairly severe cold snap at the end of December 2000 and I remember that around the 28th/29th, a couple of days after the severe weather had set in across Scotland and Ireland in particular, the BBC news articles emphasised the problems that it was causing but also had a bit of coverage about the positive or at least less negative impacts- varying from sledging to skiing to people helping each other out. (Maybe it might have been different after 10 days, but certainly not a few days). But these days I rarely see children sledging etc. mentioned even in the first day or two of a cold snap.

You could say it could be annoying repeatedly seeing children sledging but I found it pretty annoying having the press and news overwhelmingly give the impression that the overwhelming majority of the population were loathing the severe weather as much as a world war, and when asking people what they thought of the snow, selectively broadcasting the most negative responses. Even my parents (who have more of a love-hate relationship with snow) got fed up of the excessive negativity of the press/news reporting. It could surely do with being just a tad less extreme/one-sided?

[damianslaw]

I don't remember the news taking that line at all until recently- e.g. there was a fairly severe cold snap at the end of December 2000 and I remember that around the 28th/29th, a couple of days after the severe weather had set in across Scotland and Ireland in particular, the BBC news articles emphasised the problems that it was causing but also had a bit of coverage about the positive or at least less negative impacts- varying from sledging to skiing to people helping each other out. (Maybe it might have been different after 10 days, but certainly not a few days). But these days I rarely see children sledging etc. mentioned even in the first day or two of a cold snap.

You could say it could be annoying repeatedly seeing children sledging but I found it pretty annoying having the press and news overwhelmingly give the impression that the overwhelming majority of the population were loathing the severe weather as much as a world war, and when asking people what they thought of the snow, selectively broadcasting the most negative responses. Even my parents (who have more of a love-hate relationship with snow) got fed up of the excessive negativity of the press/news reporting. It could surely do with being just a tad less extreme/one-sided?

Hopefully the next 'positive' aspect they show on the news will be children skating on frozen lakes and rivers - mmm perhaps not health and safety won't let them.. Yes the media tend to show the negatives more than the positives, generally cold snowy weather is seen as an incovenience to many due to our 'modern' world. Biggest issue is the fact people travel so much more nowadays for work and pleasure and just to visit family and therefore become reliant on motorised transportation. Also people rely on gas and electricity for most of there power - hence it becomes an economic inconvience due to heating bills and costs. Snow and cold aren't the problem its our modern world we've created which isn't compatible.

To be honest those who suffer the most are the elderly isolated from family due to other 'committments' and those in the agricultural trade i.e. farmers, though the latter have coped with severe winters since the start of time, and rarely do you see a farmer being interviewed, more likely a commuter stuck on a platform in somewhere like Basingstoke who can't get to work in London - employers need to allow staff to work from home much more..

[bobbydog]

the british isles have been subject to the mercy of the weather since we first inhabited these islands. we see all extremes of weather, from 30c in summer to -20c in winter, stifling heat, torrential rain, flooding, thick fog, deep snow, widespread ice, severe gales. people in other countries live at the farther extremes of any of the weather types i have mentioned and they survive and cope because it is what they are used to. we cant control the weather but we can control how we deal with it. unfortunately, modern society has set a standard to run at the 'average' of our weather. anything outside of the average is classed as bad or disruptive. if our society accepted that we are subject to all types of extreme weather on a regular basis, we would be able to cope. everyone has their preferences of weather but we should all enjoy the beauty and diversity that our weather brings. anyone who cannot cope with any particular aspect of our weather should move to a country which more suits their needs