January CET

[Kentish Man]

Hadley CET is on 4.9C today (Jan 1 -15)

[Optimus Prime]

While the first half is averaging only 1.0c above normal it doesn't look like there's much on offer to keep the second half all that cold but the second half would only need to average 3.5c for the month as a whole to be average.

[BornFromTheVoid]

5.2C to the 16th

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Yesterday was 10.4C (CET for the last week 8.04C). Minimum for today is down as 4.1, while maxima look like being just over 8C, so most likely 5.3C by tomorrow.

After that, going by the 06z GFS we'll be at

5.1C to the 19th,

4.8C to the 21st,

4.6C to the 23rd,

4.5C to the 24th.

With the high centered more over Ireland, the minima for the CET zone have been getting progressively higher over the last few days. I'd say 60% chance for getting below the 71-00 average and 40% for below the 61-90 average.

[Kentish Man]

The CET is now on 5.3C (Jan 1 - 17) which could be the high point of the month. However there is still some doubt exactly where the high pressure will set up residence for the rest of the month. The centre need to be as close as possible to us or nearby to our east or north. Some models show it slipping away to our SW which may not be good for keeping the CET low as it allows mildish and possibly cloudier air to eventually roll over the top of it.

Edited January 18, 2011 by Kentish Man

[damianslaw]

CET should take a slow fall in the coming days but nothing dramatic perhaps down to 4.5 degrees by the weekend all will depend on how much cloud moves in from the N Sea, but central northern parts of the CET zone do look quite cold in the coming days with mostly clear skies.

I do think the final CET figure will end up near average, and every chance a little below the average as the high looks reluctant to loosen its grip.

[Cymro]

CET should take a slow fall in the coming days but nothing dramatic perhaps down to 4.5 degrees by the weekend all will depend on how much cloud moves in from the N Sea, but central northern parts of the CET zone do look quite cold in the coming days with mostly clear skies.

I do think the final CET figure will end up near average, and every chance a little below the average as the high looks reluctant to loosen its grip.

Yes very much average month imo perhas 0.1 or so below nothing specatucalr but considering we are regarding an average month mild, it says how much our weather has come on in the last few years. January on the whole has shown a general warming trend over the years this has been halted for 3 years running now, long let it continue to be halted. Nice frost morning here in the West and its -5. Not sure what the temps are in the cet zone, but with overnight minima down to -5 and day time temps not getting much above 4/5 then the possibility of 0 days is actually there.

[kold weather]

Set-up looks cool but never really that cold, should be 1-2C below average for the next 10 days and if anything the models today show this set-up broadly being sustained till the end of the month, maybe with higher pressure transfering eastwards, though I'd be cautious with that given its a La Nina winter.

I think with 10 days of small falls likely and maybe a few days more then that if the high really hangs about there is no reason why we can't get below average...probably won't be much below average though...

[damianslaw]

Set-up looks cool but never really that cold, should be 1-2C below average for the next 10 days and if anything the models today show this set-up broadly being sustained till the end of the month, maybe with higher pressure transfering eastwards, though I'd be cautious with that given its a La Nina winter.

I think with 10 days of small falls likely and maybe a few days more then that if the high really hangs about there is no reason why we can't get below average...probably won't be much below average though...

Agree with your thoughts that a below average month is still quite high. If heights were slightly further east, then the CET zone would be about to take a fair battering with freezing fog a real problem, alas it will be western parts of the CET zone which are going to record the coldest means in the coming days, whereas the east will be plagued by cloud so a very narrow diurnal range here. Indeed the diurnal range for many over the coming days in the east and south east will be very very narrow 2's and 3's at night and 5's and 6's by day.

Some north west parts could see some very cold means in the next 72 hours where any feeezing fog develops.

[Optimus Prime]

Looks pretty likely Northern Ireland and Scotland will end up colder than average. While England was around 1.0c above normal upto 15th Northern Ireland was 1.2c below and Scotland 1.4c below normal.

[damianslaw]

Looks pretty likely Northern Ireland and Scotland will end up colder than average. While England was around 1.0c above normal upto 15th Northern Ireland was 1.2c below and Scotland 1.4c below normal.

Yes the first 10 days of the month were noticeably colder in Scotland and N Ireland (and the far N of England) compared to England and Wales as a whole thanks to polar maritime air and for a short time arctic maritime air dominating. This week again Scotland, N Ireland are seeing colder conditions than england and wales (away from the west) particularly at night time. N Ireland at present is seeing the coldest weather thanks to the high pressure being slap bang over it. Indeed N Ireland unusually has seemed to be in the prime position from benefitting from the coldest conditions that the synoptics can deliver so far this winter it seems.. very unusual..

[Cymro]

Looks pretty likely Northern Ireland and Scotland will end up colder than average. While England was around 1.0c above normal upto 15th Northern Ireland was 1.2c below and Scotland 1.4c below normal.

You forget the best country of them all my friend Wales .

I suspect Wales will be slightly below average due to the cold mins we're having -5/-6 atm with day time temperatures around 0. The mild start to the month was never really exceptionally mild here either. only one or two places got avoe 10 degrees for 2 days at best. For example warmest temp here yest in Wall to wall sunshine was 3 degrees with frost persisting in the shade, it was colder where fog lingered in Wales.

[The watcher]

Yes the first 10 days of the month were noticeably colder in Scotland and N Ireland (and the far N of England) compared to England and Wales as a whole thanks to polar maritime air and for a short time arctic maritime air dominating. This week again Scotland, N Ireland are seeing colder conditions than england and wales (away from the west) particularly at night time. N Ireland at present is seeing the coldest weather thanks to the high pressure being slap bang over it. Indeed N Ireland unusually has seemed to be in the prime position from benefitting from the coldest conditions that the synoptics can deliver so far this winter it seems.. very unusual..

Indeed, a fantasticly cold winter here overall so far...probably running 3c or more below any normal 3 month winter.

What are the updates on the CET, how is she running to the 19th?

[SteveB]

Indeed, a fantasticly cold winter here overall so far...probably running 3c or more below any normal 3 month winter.

What are the updates on the CET, how is she running to the 19th?

5.1c to the 19th, +1.7c

[SteveB]

4.9c to the 20th, +1.4c

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

[reef]

A cold day in the CET zone yesterday aswell with a mean of 0.6C. Today could well see a sub-zero mean as the minima is down as -3.8C.

After today it all depends on cloud amounts. If the CET zone can remain clear then we'll see a rapid drop, otherwise it might be a more gentle fall.

[summer blizzard]

A cold day in the CET zone yesterday aswell with a mean of 0.6C. Today could well see a sub-zero mean as the minima is down as -3.8C.

After today it all depends on cloud amounts. If the CET zone can remain clear then we'll see a rapid drop, otherwise it might be a more gentle fall.

The models seem to have got rid of any warm uppers and extended through next week indicating fairly clear conditions.

3.5C is possible i think.

[damianslaw]

Some notably cold nightime minima yesterday particularly in the northern and western part of the CET area, less so the east parts. Maxima today have struggled as well, can easily see 0.3 degrees knocked off the CET by tomorrow. The next few days look quite chilly but more cloud around will prevent any low minima, middle of next week looks like colder clearer conditions will return with much lower nightime minima, CET this time next week could be close to 4 degrees. As I said a very near average CET month looks likely. I would say a finishing mark somewhere within the 3.8-4.2 degree range, with lowest possible figure 3.5 degrees, and highest about 4.5 degrees.

Scotland and N Ireland are likely to record a positively clder than normal Jan, currently I believe the CET is 1 degree below the average. The exceptional cold of Dec, is making this month feel relatively mild, but it has been very average so far, and in the north quite a cold one.

[SteveB]

4.7c to the 21st +1.1c

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

[BornFromTheVoid]

Hard to predict how the maxima will be today with potential fog and whatnot, but going by the GFS 06z it looks like we'll be at

4.5C to the 22nd (1.0)

4.5C to the 23rd (4.0)

4.5C to the 24th (4.2)

4.5C to the 25th (4.1)

4.5C to the 26th (5.8

4.4C to the 27th (1.6)

4.3C to the 28th (1.0)

4.2C to the 29th (0.7)

A very slow downward trend. I'd say somewhere between 3.8C and 4.3C before corrections.

[Milhouse]

Hard to predict how the maxima will be today with potential fog and whatnot, but going by the GFS 06z it looks like we'll be at

4.5C to the 22nd (1.0)

4.5C to the 23rd (4.0)

4.5C to the 24th (4.2)

4.5C to the 25th (4.1)

4.5C to the 26th (5.8

4.4C to the 27th (1.6)

4.3C to the 28th (1.0)

4.2C to the 29th (0.7)

A very slow downward trend. I'd say somewhere between 3.8C and 4.3C before corrections.

Yes i agree. The next 5 days will see maxes of 4-7c and mins of 1-4c so i can see the CET remaining unchanged for a while. Thereafter clearing skies will make night frosts possible so expect a small fall before the month is out.

[Cymro]

Hard to predict how the maxima will be today with potential fog and whatnot, but going by the GFS 06z it looks like we'll be at

4.5C to the 22nd (1.0)

4.5C to the 23rd (4.0)

4.5C to the 24th (4.2)

4.5C to the 25th (4.1)

4.5C to the 26th (5.8

4.4C to the 27th (1.6)

4.3C to the 28th (1.0)

4.2C to the 29th (0.7)

A very slow downward trend. I'd say somewhere between 3.8C and 4.3C before corrections.

If this week is anything to go by you can shade a god 0.3/4 degrees off that because this weaks temps were overcooked by a long shot by the GFS and by the METO.

[Optimus Prime]

Below average pretty much guarenteed. Somewhere in the mid 3c's. 8th consecutive below average winter month.

December 2008 3.5c (-1.6c)

January 2009 3.0c (-1.2c)

February 2009 4.1c (-0.1c)

December 2009 3.1c (-2.0c)

January 2010 1.4c (-2.8c)

February 2010 2.8 (-1.4c)

December 2010 -0.7c (-5.8c)

January 2011 3.6c (-0.6c)

Average 2.6c (-1.9c)

Edited January 22, 2011 by Optimus Prime

[BornFromTheVoid]

If this week is anything to go by you can shade a god 0.3/4 degrees off that because this weaks temps were overcooked by a long shot by the GFS and by the METO.

You might be right, but to be fair to the GFS, on the 15th it showed us being at 4.6C by the 21st, which was only out by 0.1C, so it's not doing to badly.

The 12z is a little cooler, with us staying at 4.4C for several days before dropping to 4.1C to the 29th, and 3.9C to the 30th.

My estimate for the end of the month figure seems a bit off now though, might change that to between 3.6 and 4.2 before corrections.

Edited January 22, 2011 by BornFromTheVoid

[damianslaw]

Can someone tell me which stations are used to record the CET figure for the day. I think it is Stonyhurst in Lancashire, Pershore in Worcestershire, but can't remember the third - I think it is somewhere in the SE....

Is the average for these three stations then used as the CET figure?

The current CET in recent days has been propped up by the third station in SE England where temps have been much milder with cloud and little frost. Take this station out the equation and I think we would be much closer to a 4 degree figure. Up here means in the past 5 days have been below zero due to some notably cold nights and freezing fog/clear skies by day.

Still believe the odds of a below average month are quite high, and the final outcome will be another very near average one.. in common with many months since about the middle of 2008.

[Isolated Frost]

Can someone tell me which stations are used to record the CET figure for the day. I think it is Stonyhurst in Lancashire, Pershore in Worcestershire, but can't remember the third - I think it is somewhere in the SE....

Is the average for these three stations then used as the CET figure?

The current CET in recent days has been propped up by the third station in SE England where temps have been much milder with cloud and little frost. Take this station out the equation and I think we would be much closer to a 4 degree figure. Up here means in the past 5 days have been below zero due to some notably cold nights and freezing fog/clear skies by day.

Still believe the odds of a below average month are quite high, and the final outcome will be another very near average one.. in common with many months since about the middle of 2008.

Somewhere in Hertfordshire, Rothamsted I think.