January CET

[Milhouse]

Couldn't it also be said that the station in Lancashire is dragging the CET down.

The definition of average means that some stations will be higher than the overall mean and some will be lower. Given how many people live in the SE it would seem a very innacurate representation to many people if a station in the SE wasnt included.

[Weather-history]

It looks as though January 2011 is going to be a sandwich month with a colder first and last third with a mild middle third.

[Kentish Man]

As predicted in post 194 above Hadley is on 4.5C today (Jan 1 - 22)

[BornFromTheVoid]

The models have changed a bit since yesterday, so it's looking a bit cooler once again.

Anywho, going by todays 06z it looks like we'll be at

4.5C to the 23rd (3.6)

4.4C to the 24th (3.4)

4.5C to the 25th (5.4)

4.4C to the 26th (3.5)

4.3C to the 27th (2.0)

4.2C to the 28th (0.5)

4.1C to the 29th (2.1)

4.1C to the 30th (2.2)

And probably a finish of 4.0C before corrections. After corrections, I'd say the odds for beating the 61-90 average is about 45/55 and the 71-90 average 90/10

What kinda figure is Manley on at the moment!?

Edit: Pretty much guaranteed to beat the 81-10 average too.

Edited January 23, 2011 by BornFromTheVoid

[Optimus Prime]

Manley is 4.6c upto 21st (+0.4c)

[BornFromTheVoid]

Cheers OP.

A large downard correction isn't looking too likely at this stage then.

[Kentish Kiwi]

I'm beginning to get the feeling my 2.3C may well be a couple of degrees too low. The stratospheric elements certainly don't seem to be developing as I had hoped, and an SSW was my main hope in what would bring another cold month...

I posted this on the 1st of the month and it doesn't seem too far off at all. A couple of degrees more - 4.3 - seems a pretty solid guess at this stage I would have thought? Events in the stratosphere have gone the opposite of what I had hoped, so from that moment on my guess was effectively bust.

[SteveB]

4.5c to the 23rd, +0.8c

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

[BornFromTheVoid]

Going by the GFS 06z once again, it looks like we'll be at

4.5C to the 24th (5.0)

4.5C to the 25th (5.7)

4.5C to the 26th (3.4)

4.3C to the 27th (-0.9)

4.1C to the 28th (-0.3)

4.0C to the 29th (0.3)

3.9C to the 30th (1.5)

3.9C to the 31st (3.7)

I'd say 3.7-4.1 the most likely landing zone before corrections

[damianslaw]

Still looking like a finishing mark between 3.8 - 4.2 degrees. From Wednesday we will some colder minima and maxima will be suppressed perhaps maxes of just 3 degrees by Thursday and Friday which will send the CET down a bit.

Not expecting any major downward corrections this month, but if I was to bet I would say a final figure below 4 degrees is more likely than one above - so a very near average month - reflecting the relatively benign conditions with no extreme cold nights, but apart from the short mild spell mid month no particularly mild weather.

[BornFromTheVoid]

4.5C to the 24th.

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Yesterday was 5.3C. Minimum for today is down as 3.8C, with maxima looking to be around 8C, we'll most likely be at 4.6C by tomorrows update.

After that, going by the 06z GFS we'll be at

4.6C to the 26th (4.8

4.4C to the 27th (0.2)

4.2C to the 28th (-0.5)

4.1C to the 29th (-0.1)

4.0C to the 30th (0.6)

3.9C to the 31st (0.6)

[The watcher]

My 3.6c is gonna be close....tad too low I think, but might not be.

[VillagePlank]

Curiously, it looks like the moon was quite close after all ... here (3.96C for Jan CET)

Can I give the whole year in advance in the CET competition, please?

(Don't worry, I'm as shocked as the next man!)

Edited January 25, 2011 by VillagePlank

[Kentish Man]

Manley is indicating a pretty average month so far in all 3 departments.

CET: (Jan 1-25): 4.4°C (+0.2 degC)

E&W Rain: (Jan 1-25): 80.3mm (106 per cent)

E&W Sun: (Jan 1-25): 42.7hr ( 97 per cent)

© Philip Eden

Hadley has just updated and has edged up to 4.6C (Jan 1 - 25) reflecting yesterday's milder conditions.

[Optimus Prime]

CET average for the 26th-31st comes in at 0.9c according to the 2M GFS. CET by the 31st 3.9c or 3.7c after adjustments (assuming a 0.2c correction. 0.1c below 61-90, 0.5c below 71-000 and 0.7c below 81-2010.

CET for Dec/Jan 2010/2011 1.5c. 3.0c below 1981-2010 mean.

Dec/Jan 09/10 2.3c

Dec/Jan 08/09 3.3c

Dec/Jan 06/07 6.8c

Dec/Jan 95/96 2.7c

Dec/Jan 81/82 1.4c

Dec/Jan 78/79 1.8c

Dec/Jan 62/63 -0.2c

Dec/Jan 40/41 0.9c

Edited January 26, 2011 by Optimus Prime

[BornFromTheVoid]

4.5C to the 27th

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Yesterday was 1.7C. Minimum for today is down as -0.7C, we will be at either 4.3 or 4.4C by tomorrows update, depending on whether the maxima can stay below about 1.8C.

After that, going by the 06z GFS we'll be at

4.2C to the 29th (-1.0),

4.0C to the 30th (-0.3),

3.9C to the 31st (0.1).

Pretty much guaranteed to beat both the 81-10 and 71-00 figures, but the 61-90 looks to be slightly odds against I'd say...

Anyway, another very poor CET guess by myself

[Snowyowl9]

Looks like this month will end up just a touch below average,and a little lower than january 2006 good month IMO pretty similar months except the mild spell this year was milder.

Both months have given an easterly like these last few days,early Jan 2006 also gave an easterly longer lasting and better placed high for some snow.

[reef]

Hadley is now on 4.4C to the 28th, yesterday came in at a chilly 0.7C.

A similar value and further drop after today as the min is down as -3.9C and maxima are likely to be in the 4-5C range.

[North-Easterly Blast]

Looks like this month will end up just a touch below average,and a little lower than january 2006 good month IMO pretty similar months except the mild spell this year was milder.

Both months have given an easterly like these last few days,early Jan 2006 also gave an easterly longer lasting and better placed high for some snow.

This month has shown some similarities to January 2006, with a mild spell around mid-month and colder anticyclonic spell later on. I will point out that for most places January 2006 saw hardly any snow, and many places that month never saw falling snow. There was in fact a date (21st Jan) when the models developed a full blown easterly but by the following day when shortwaves were picked up in the GIN corridor, this was reduced to a mid-latitude Rex Block over the UK, as the High over the UK was unable to retrogress far enough north.

[J10]

4.5C to the 27th

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Yesterday was 1.7C. Minimum for today is down as -0.7C, we will be at either 4.3 or 4.4C by tomorrows update, depending on whether the maxima can stay below about 1.8C.

After that, going by the 06z GFS we'll be at

4.2C to the 29th (-1.0),

4.0C to the 30th (-0.3),

3.9C to the 31st (0.1).

Pretty much guaranteed to beat both the 81-10 and 71-00 figures, but the 61-90 looks to be slightly odds against I'd say...

Anyway, another very poor CET guess by myself

Not the only one.

[Midlands Ice Age]

Hadley is now on 4.4C to the 28th, yesterday came in at a chilly 0.7C.

A similar value and further drop after today as the min is down as -3.9C and maxima are likely to be in the 4-5C range.

Maximum temps in the Midlands and south are only around 1c today so look like an ice day Could be as low as -1.2c pulling the CET down to 4.16C before adjustments.

Could we get below 3.7C after adjustments by month end.?

[damianslaw]

As I stated about a week ago the final CET value looks like being a very near average one - slightly colder than the 71-00 value.

Had the atlantic not decided to get its act together during the 10-16th we would probably be looking at a rather cold finishing value, the rest of this month has been quite cold generally. Would be interesting see the CET values for the following periods -

1-9 Jan

10-16 Jan

17-31 Jan

Indeed this month has seen three very distinct periods. The 1-9 Jan being changeable with some cold air in the north, average in the south, 10-16 Jan mild even very mild for many and wet and windy, 17-31 Jan very dry a little below average temps with some frosty nights and rather too much cloud at times.

In overview a thoroughly uninteresting month.

[J10]

As I stated about a week ago the final CET value looks like being a very near average one - slightly colder than the 71-00 value.

Had the atlantic not decided to get its act together during the 10-16th we would probably be looking at a rather cold finishing value, the rest of this month has been quite cold generally. Would be interesting see the CET values for the following periods -

1-9 Jan

10-16 Jan

17-31 Jan

Indeed this month has seen three very distinct periods. The 1-9 Jan being changeable with some cold air in the north, average in the south, 10-16 Jan mild even very mild for many and wet and windy, 17-31 Jan very dry a little below average temps with some frosty nights and rather too much cloud at times.

In overview a thoroughly uninteresting month.

Going from the usual Met Office link, rough calculations suggest

1-9 Jan was 0.3c

10-16 Jan was 8.1c

17-28 Jan was 0.3c

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

4.2C to the 29th

[Midlands Ice Age]

Has anyone noticed that yesterday was the coldest day of January in the CET Region?

The mean is recorded as -1.2C, with the minimum at -3.9C and the max at 1.4C according to Hadley.

Furthermore today (30th) could also be below zero as todays minimum is recorded as -2.6C for last night and todays temperatures have remained suppressed.

The temperatures are forecast for -5C in the area tonight so tomorrow is likely to be around zero.

It almost certainly will mean a below 4C, probably in the region of 3.8 to 3.9C before corrections for January (and yes I too was miles out!!)