The Midlands - Cold Spell Discussion Part 20

[mr benn]

I think people are once again confusing computer generated graphics on websites for actual forecasts? Thought you'd know better by now? Neither the MetO nor the BBC are forecasting snow anywhere this weekend.

Oh yes they are Essan. BBC forecasting light snow for my area right now. Have to say I wouldnt be suprised. Its cold, grey skies.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/347?area=Redditch

[Vince]

was snow here(south mids) this morning with rain and sleet , cars coated in ice at 7am temp at -1 , a tad to warm high up for pure snow, bad ice on pavements

[abbaman]

Oh yes they are Essan. BBC forecasting light snow for my area right now. Have to say I wouldnt be suprised. Its cold, grey skies.

http://news.bbc.co.u...7?area=Redditch

well derby had snow but it was 1.6 outside so snow did not settle at the 6am as forecasted.

[abbaman]

just done my 10 day forcast and we will have snow on 31st of jan untill the 3rd of feb very heavy in the midlands area. Then back to the milder weather. Readings of the weather are 38-78%. But that could all change as have checked all the weather maps for snow risk from a lot of sites and they are giving snow for them two days. So grit at the ready a lot of grit needed at all times so get your grit in stock.. So my weather forcast is the same as on here. So we need no more of that snow I do not want anymore snow but temp is just below frezzeing. But that was done over an hour ago and the redone version is no snowrisk then. But frist one still stands as a probile sevare weather.

[abbaman]

Dare I ask which model(s) were used to aid you in producing your "forecast"?

A largely high pressure-dominated outlook for the foreseeable from all forecast models. So it'll be cold and dry. No snow.

No mind in asking but

Gfs cfs ssf and nnm . I have full acess to the Derby uni weather station as well. So can get full charts from there weather station. And one other that is the uni's own model.

[Gord]

Just been for a walk up on Lickey Hills. Absolutly bitter up there and surprisingly windy too. Felt very raw indeed!

Still...quite stunning with the setting sun and areas of murk and mist floating around down below. Couldn't see Birmingham city centre at all today from up there and normally it sticks out like a sore thumb in the view.

Was notable how dry the ground was up there too.

[abbaman]

Well, the GFS isn't modelling any particularly cold weather or snowfall during the period in question. The NMM is a Hi-res model used in forecasting up to a couple of days ahead. The CFS...well I'm not sure why you would be using that. And as for the SSF... which model is this again?

SSF is a model run by Derby Uni so I have the only acess to that in the uk. And SSF is a trail model by them for the weather.

[mr benn]

Anybody agree with Abbaman that were going to see heavy snow next weekend ? Ive not see any other suggestions of this. I for one hope not

[abbaman]

Anybody agree with Abbaman that were going to see heavy snow next weekend ? Ive not see any other suggestions of this. I for one hope not

That was done yesterday but the latest update is no smowrisk at all nextweekend As changed 5-25% snowrisk.

But metcheck.com as a 30-50% for nextweekend but I'm ingoreing that risk.

Edited January 23, 2011 by abbaman

[Gord]

I've switched off from the weather now...

...at least there might be a chance of clear days and frosty nights at points during our high pressure spell. But not for a few nights yet.

In the words of Morrissey, we're "under slate grey victorian skies".

[Essan]

Oh yes they are Essan. BBC forecasting light snow for my area right now. Have to say I wouldnt be suprised. Its cold, grey skies.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/347?area=Redditch

My point exactly. A computer generated forecast with no human involvement. I thought we all knew such things were not worth a paper teacup?

(whether the MetO should be showing them is for another thread)

byw had rain and drizzle here yesterday at sub zero temps. Somewhat milder today but very dull and grey (as forecast).

Anybody agree with Abbaman that were going to see heavy snow next weekend ? Ive not see any other suggestions of this. I for one hope not

I'm not expecting any heavy snow here until next winter. Mind, I poo-poo-ed the idea of a cold spell at the end of November ....

Edited January 23, 2011 by Essan

[Costa Del Fal]

I've switched off from the weather now...

...at least there might be a chance of clear days and frosty nights at points during our high pressure spell. But not for a few nights yet.

In the words of Morrissey, we're "under slate grey victorian skies".

Its incredibly boring isnt it.

Since New year, i have been interested in anything but the weather. Hopefully soon we will get something...anything just to liven things up!

[conor123]

I have to agree this January has been incredibly tedious with a very high number of slate gray days, at least mild Januarys like 2007 had some exciting storms!

Wednesday/Thursday could of been interesting had there been cold upper air but for some reason despite an exceptional cold December and cold January to for much of Scandinavia its not happening.

Edited January 23, 2011 by conor123

[abbaman]

What I want for the whole of the Uk is have high pressuse for the next 55 years and no snow ever and nice sunny weather all year round like some parts of Africa. some contries never get snow give the contries that never have snow some real winter weather. With greenland with very cold weather all year round.

East midlands weather should have a separte area to the West midlands on this forum. My weather forcast predictions for the up and coming 6 weeks we will get some light snow but no heavy snow in the east midlands apart from the east midlands coastal area could get some heaver snow but the coastal areas are under 65% for heaver snow as the high pressuse still sits over the Uk. Update all areas will get a light scattering of snow but not as heavy as late Nov early Dec. Using Derby Uni SSF model that's is not for public view. Most of Feb is going to be mild apart from late Jan Early Feb when we will get some more snow but on the light side. March is still going to be a mild month as well. And my March weather forcast predictions are being done this very minute. March forecast is hear now March is going to be a mild month with some sunny weather and a lot of rainy showers mixed in. The end of Feb weather is diffrcut to predit at this time but Feb is going to milder as I have just done my temps for every day min temp -0.1c max temp 13c the last day of Feb temp is 13c max. Then untill March 16th it will be temps in some double numbers and some low numbers lowest temp in March is the 30 0c. April forcast is being done at the end of Feb.

[Gord]

I have to agree this January has been incredibly tedious with a very high number of slate gray days, at least mild Januarys like 2007 had some exciting storms!

Wednesday/Thursday could of been interesting had there been cold upper air but for some reason despite an exceptional cold December and cold January to for much of Scandinavia its not happening.

And in 2007, it all settled down when April came around and gave us that wonderful Easter...

...then summer 2007 came along to remind us of the country that we live in.

These condtions right now...I would love from May onwards. Though we'd proably get plagued by a bit of low cloud drifting around now and again.

January is a bit of a write off this year. Can't remember a January so dull. Pre 2009 January's were all about wild Atlantic storms and the past 2 years its all been about cold and snow.

Never mind...when we look back at this winter in years to come...January will be long forgotten compared to the month that preceeded it, so thats a good thing.

You never hear about January 1991 or February 1987...January 2011 joins that list....dwarfed by one of the other winter months!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Suppose not a bad January, had frost and fog, even a little rime and not been that wet, only 1 morning of snow mind you, typical of 2000+ winters really, December always the ideal month to get the cold synoptics, is the coldest month of the year generally. I reckon if we have exactly Dec 2010 synoptics from mid January it wouldnt be anywhere near as cold, although snow amounts may not be much lower

so fairly mild and uneventful to end Jan and start Feb, but shouldnt be too wet hopefully, but maybe 26th Jan wet

[A.J]

It has been generally fairly dull the past week or two, but at least it's been dry, thus has allowed me to do some long overdue maintanence work on the house!

I take the point that some members post that the weather's very monotonous, but personally, I'd take it over howling gales and frontal washouts any day of the week

[abbaman]

It has been generally fairly dull the past week or two, but at least it's been dry, thus has allowed me to do some long overdue maintanence work on the house!

I take the point that some members post that the weather's very monotonous, but personally, I'd take it over howling gales and frontal washouts any day of the week

I take dry weather with a few rainy days instead of snowy weather anyday in winter. Thats my winter perfect weather.

[conor123]

And in 2007, it all settled down when April came around and gave us that wonderful Easter...

...then summer 2007 came along to remind us of the country that we live in.

These condtions right now...I would love from May onwards. Though we'd proably get plagued by a bit of low cloud drifting around now and again.

January is a bit of a write off this year. Can't remember a January so dull. Pre 2009 January's were all about wild Atlantic storms and the past 2 years its all been about cold and snow.

Never mind...when we look back at this winter in years to come...January will be long forgotten compared to the month that preceeded it, so thats a good thing.

You never hear about January 1991 or February 1987...January 2011 joins that list....dwarfed by one of the other winter months!

Id still take July and August 2007 over the borefest of July/August 2010 anyday, but yes it just seem our seasons seem to start early and fizzle out into nothingness.

Aka Late May/June last year, lovely summery weather time and time again, Late November/December of course exceptional cold, July-August slate grey skies, January- February?? slate gray skies.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

It has been generally fairly dull the past week or two, but at least it's been dry, thus has allowed me to do some long overdue maintanence work on the house!

I take the point that some members post that the weather's very monotonous, but personally, I'd take it over howling gales and frontal washouts any day of the week

definitely agree with last bit,

[Barbmac]

It has been generally fairly dull the past week or two, but at least it's been dry, thus has allowed me to do some long overdue maintanence work on the house!

I take the point that some members post that the weather's very monotonous, but personally, I'd take it over howling gales and frontal washouts any day of the week

Hello you lot! Still hoping for snow? :smilz38: I think we're out of luck for now. Weather's been chilly and damp in Malvern but we have had a fair bit of sunshine and brightness too, and frost over a few nights, a bit slippery on the roads first thing as it's been below freezing most mornings. It's 3.5^oC now, but I saw some cloudiness outside so I think no negative values tonight.

[Barbmac]

http://news.bbc.co.u...r/forecast/2219

look at this for derby uk light snow.

Light snow, hmm... Malvern's only got grey cloud. :smiliz46:

Malvern 5 day forecast BBC

[Costa Del Fal]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/2219

look at this for derby uk light snow.

Considering Thursday is 4 days away, its only a computer generated forecast, the chances of it happening are low. There is a risk of a few flurries later this week near the coasts but nothing at all really.

P.S I know Derby is in the UK. :lol:

[Isolated Frost]

Abbaman, it seems you rely massively on the MetCheck CFS 300 Day for some reason!

I wouldn't expect much snow for nearly anywhere in the UK in the near future, especially heavy, maybe incursions for the SE.

[Gord]

I'm just getting excited when the BBC change our forecast from grey cloud to white cloud. I think thats the most realistic change in the forecast we can expect.