North West England - Slightly Less Cold Spell Discussion Part 21

[lukemc]

Hello,

Just asking do you think I will see any more lying snow this February or this winter season. Yes I am normally very optimistic when it comes to these things especially after the amazing December that we had but like many of you on this forum will understand even I am starting to loose my patience having not had a single day of lying (or even falling snow) since the first week of January and we have had to endure synoptics that are non conductive for snowfall since. Yes I know that synoptics that are non conductive for cold and snow would be the norm in many winters in the so called "christmas pudding" as some prefer to call it but even I can't seem to grasp how the synoptics favourable for cold and snow just seemed to vanish as we entered January. Yes, you could say that the strong La Nina profile was responsible but that does not seem to be stopping cold/wintery outbreaks in other parts of the Northern Hemisphere - just saw a report on CNN this morning about an unusually snowy spell of weather in the Korean peninsula.

As for the rest of this week, even though we have had to endure a lot of ups and downs in the model output over the last week or so, last nights models were firming up on a possible battleground scenario which could potentially be on the scale of March 2006 at least which brought quite a bit of snow were I live - I had seen possible comparisons with February 1996 and March 2006 mentioned but what sometimes fustrates me is how the upper temps seem to get downgraded closer to the time - I have just seen a post from one of the more experienced posters in the model thread and he does not rekon that the continental air will get far west enough for it to bring widespread snow and he seems to reckon that the Atlantic air has more chance of winning this time at least based on current output.

So do you think we are still in with a chance of a good covering of snow before winter is out - I don't mean it staying on the ground for over a week like in December but is a good fall of snow with it remaining on the ground for a day or two really to much to ask for now? I cannot see why the mild has to win all the time. I would actually be happy now with a similar event to early January with a fall of snow in the morning melting away by the afternoon considering the way this winter has gone in terms of snowfall since then really is even that too much to ask for or would current model output still leave us with a shot at something in the next week?

Yes I am normally very optimistic but it will not be long until I start using emoticons like this :wallbash:in my posts and I admit I have never used that particular one before unless we get something exciting soon LOL!

I would also be nice to see NW regional forum busy again too for a change!

Luke

[HotCuppa]

Elevation will be the key,but dont forget which direction those colder uppers are coming from

C.S

absolutely agree mate. As for next weekend, one step at a time, I am not entirely convinced we'll see anything. I think

we've been here before. The only problem is the longer this goes on (lack of cold) the worse the chances get. I think

certainly if you want brief cold spells and a little bit of snow id agree with the assessment there is still more to come,

but as for deep cold, we are very quickly running out of time, half way through the month now, and only a few weeks

from March. Longer days, warmer sun not a good combination imo.

[Backtrack]

Weather has frequent wintry showers, and a band of sleet and snow crossing us tomorrow.

[HotCuppa]

Hello,

Just asking do you think I will see any more lying snow this February or this winter season. Yes I am normally very optimistic when it comes to these things especially after the amazing December that we had but like many of you on this forum will understand even I am starting to loose my patience having not had a single day of lying (or even falling snow) since the first week of January and we have had to endure synoptics that are non conductive for snowfall since. Yes I know that synoptics that are non conductive for cold and snow would be the norm in many winters in the so called "christmas pudding" as some prefer to call it but even I can't seem to grasp how the synoptics favourable for cold and snow just seemed to vanish as we entered January. Yes, you could say that the strong La Nina profile was responsible but that does not seem to be stopping cold/wintery outbreaks in other parts of the Northern Hemisphere - just saw a report on CNN this morning about an unusually snowy spell of weather in the Korean peninsula.

As for the rest of this week, even though we have had to endure a lot of ups and downs in the model output over the last week or so, last nights models were firming up on a possible battleground scenario which could potentially be on the scale of March 2006 at least which brought quite a bit of snow were I live - I had seen possible comparisons with February 1996 and March 2006 mentioned but what sometimes fustrates me is how the upper temps seem to get downgraded closer to the time - I have just seen a post from one of the more experienced posters in the model thread and he does not rekon that the continental air will get far west enough for it to bring widespread snow and he seems to reckon that the Atlantic air has more chance of winning this time at least based on current output.

So do you think we are still in with a chance of a good covering of snow before winter is out - I don't mean it staying on the ground for over a week like in December but is a good fall of snow with it remaining on the ground for a day or two really to much to ask for now? I cannot see why the mild has to win all the time. I would actually be happy now with a similar event to early January with a fall of snow in the morning melting away by the afternoon considering the way this winter has gone in terms of snowfall since then really is even that too much to ask for or would current model output still leave us with a shot at something in the next week?

Yes I am normally very optimistic but it will not be long until I start using emoticons like this :wallbash:in my posts and I admit I have never used that particular one before unless we get something exciting soon LOL!

I would also be nice to see NW regional forum busy again too for a change!

Luke

I think all we can hope for is a few brief cold shots from the east, with battleground conditions out west. I suspect though, the Atlantic will win out in any kind of situation like that. We have mild Atlantic temperatures with very little in the way of very cold air. Best bet is brief periods of cold spells with occasional snow showers worst case scenario with the battleground situation the best we can hope for. We are now almost mid month, the sun is getting higher each day and getting slightly warmer along with longer days..its really not looking that good imo.fingers crossed

[cheshire snow]

Weather has frequent wintry showers, and a band of sleet and snow crossing us tomorrow.

Hi mate

would not get to excited as i posted earlier the word is ELEVATION

not saying we wont get some wintriness in the showers

tomorrow evening has got me intrested though as the temps and DP drop we MIGHT see some sleet/wet snow

lets see what GFS 12Z comes up with.

i have noticed with the models from the 23rd what a mess they are in some suggest spring has arrived with temps upto 16c

others will have you believe the cold is back with temps of 1-4c

very intresting model watching at the moment

C.S

[HotCuppa]

Weather has frequent wintry showers, and a band of sleet and snow crossing us tomorrow.

Currently 9C at the moment here. Thing is though, it definitely feels chillier than yesterday. Yesterday was 10C and it actually felt much warmer than it was.

I do think any snow showers are going to be over elevated locations. Not much down here where I am unless its very heavy. You might scrape a few

wintry showers though..fingers crossed for you mate

Hi mate

would not get to excited as i posted earlier the word is ELEVATION

not saying we wont get some wintriness in the showers

tomorrow evening has got me intrested though as the temps and DP drop we MIGHT see some sleet/wet snow

lets see what GFS 12Z comes up with.

i have noticed with the models from the 23rd what a mess they are in some suggest spring has arrived with temps upto 16c

others will have you believe the cold is back with temps of 1-4c

very intresting model watching at the moment

C.S

Strange case about the GFS this year is that it's been quick to jump on cold set ups at long range, then dump them at closer range, only to then again pick stuff back up. It's not doing a good job long range at all

I think we'll both agree on that. I think the furthest for guidance at the moment is probably going to be 4/5 days maximum, even then it's probably going to stuggle mightily but it should be a lot more realistic than

strange FI its been putting out over the past few months.

[cheshire snow]

UKMO Forecast for Monday 14th Feb issued at 1537 today

scattered heavy showers developing,these wintry with sleet/hail max 7c

that wouls suggest to me snow for elevated areas.

C.S

[HotCuppa]

UKMO Forecast for Monday 14th Feb issued at 1537 today

scattered heavy showers developing,these wintry with sleet/hail max 7c

that wouls suggest to me snow for elevated areas.

C.S

pretty much yes. Probably rain at lower levels with sleet and snow higher up. 400m?

[cheshire snow]

NAE continues its theme for tomorrow evening with a brief period of sleet/snow from the n midlands northwards

C.S

NAE continues its theme for tomorrow evening with a brief period of sleet/snow from the n midlands northwards

C.S

Take the 12z GFS and bank it from T120-T150 light to moderate snow for our region through the weekend.....if only

GFS its such a bloo*y tease LOL,nice to look at though

C.S

[weatherobsuk]

I'd also expect for a short time, any showers into tomorrow evening to be wintry due to nocturnal cooling, surrounded by the cooler air anyway with the rapid drop-off in temps the closer to the Spring Equinox were starting to get into March.

[HotCuppa]

I'd also expect for a short time, any showers into tomorrow evening to be wintry due to nocturnal cooling, surrounded by the cooler air anyway with the rapid drop-off in temps the closer to the Spring Equinox were starting to get into March.

Would have thought any true chance of snow or snow showers would be pretty much over elevated ground, with rain / hail lower level.

[cheshire snow]

be intresting to see were the ECM goes this evening

IMO and very briefly for the week ahead a mixture of rain/sleet/hail showers for low ground,with any snow reserved for higher ground

towards weekend a battle ground situation taking place with most places seeing some sleet/snow

based on the GFS 12Z

C.S

[La Bise]

What I want to know is when it's going to get a bit drier...I'm almost hoping for that blessed mid-atlantic ridge, even a euro/uk high to set up so I can go pitch myself up in the mountains and enjoy a nice evening gazing at the stars...

[Chris.R]

well I am looking forward to the first proper convective day this year today, not snow, I have given up on that and I think you are all cluching at strors. We have a negative LI and high CAPE this afternoon so I wouldn't be surprised if there was some heavy haill showers may be with the odd rumble of thunder?

Just thinking of something else to talk about as it's not just snow that makes the weather interesting!

[Backtrack]

It isn't looking good for any convection in the South of the region today, winds have veered too far South West for anything to hit us from the Irish Sea and the Welsh mountains will kill off any showers trying to push up from Wales.

[HotCuppa]

It isn't looking good for any convection in the South of the region today, winds have veered too far South West for anything to hit us from the Irish Sea and the Welsh mountains will kill off any showers trying to push up from Wales.

that was always the case though. Rain / Hail lower levels, but there are flurries over the hills to the north of the region, but they look pretty weak, stuff over us looks like

it will be rain / hail at best tho

[I Cumbria Marra I]

Just had a sleet shower

[Backtrack]

Of oh course they're weak HC - They have had to travel over Wales. They are pepping up however as they enter England.

Keeps going dark here, but nothing has fallen as of yet.

COME ON!

Edited February 14, 2011 by Backtrack

[weatherobsuk]

We had some hail & sleet in the shower/s that passed today. Although being at 210m (688ft) its somewhat to be expected with the airmass were currently in. Been catching up on the charts, models, about how the North is due more snow precip by the end of the week, given today and the effect of precip cores bringing the lower DAM layer down, i'd say the chance is pretty good.

Although unfortunately this time of winter we have to remember the sun is getting ever higher and warmer in the sky, so any fallen snow on the ground doesn't last as long as it does in December/January setups.

[itsnowjoke]

had a hail shower today but no sleet.

current temp 3c.

just been reading the MT thread and it sounds like to me its all over regarding any cold shot.

if im wrong please put me right but just have a read its rubbish.

Edited February 14, 2011 by snowwhere?

[cheshire snow]

had a hail shower today but no sleet.

current temp 3c.

just been reading the MT thread and it sounds like to me its all over regarding any cold shot.

if im wrong please put me right but just have a read its rubbish.

indeed

you are quite correct cannot see any cold occuring,the models IMO have performed poorly since Xmas and

continue to do so.

for example NAE and GFS only this morning had the region under a band of sleet/snow this evening

what aload of rubbish.for me FI is T24 at the moment

C.S

[Backtrack]

A cold 3.4C here.

Snow tonight anyone?

[itsnowjoke]

A cold 3.4C here.

Snow tonight anyone?

you wish, like the rest of us.LOL. if i woke up to a covering of snow tomoz id eat my own shoes.

current temp 1c.

humidity 100%.

wind-s -8mph.

Edited February 14, 2011 by snowwhere?

[Backtrack]

you wish, like the rest of us.LOL. if i woke up to a covering of snow tomoz id eat my own shoes.

I wouldn't eat my shoes, how would I go out walking in the snow if I had eaten my shoes lol?

xD

[itsnowjoke]

I wouldn't eat my shoes, how would I go out walking in the snow if I had eaten my shoes lol?

xD

ice skates

but i do think that its all over regarding any snow as reading the MT thread its about as interesting as our current weather.

Edited February 14, 2011 by snowwhere?