North West England - Slightly Less Cold Spell Discussion Part 21

[cheshire snow]

Cannot believe i am the only one on here this morning.....this morning 06Z is weather porn,even better than Dec cold spell....

i know its FI but just look at those frames IF that was to verify there will be snow/showers and severe overnight frosts

I have a very strong feeling winter is going to go out with a bang,and if the trend from this morning GFS continues

i think our thread will become quite busy again

C.S

[Liam J]

The rain continues to fall, flooding will become a problem here in cumbria as the rivers are at the top of there banks and with much more rain forecast to fall its not looking good, 8.6c currently

The wind has become strong in the last hour gusting to around 40mph, the wave must be slightly further north than the models progged bringing the tighter isobars over cumbria, it was looking like staying just to the south

[alister_storey]

Cannot believe i am the only one on here this morning.....this morning 06Z is weather porn,even better than Dec cold spell....

i know its FI but just look at those frames IF that was to verify there will be snow/showers and severe overnight frosts

I have a very strong feeling winter is going to go out with a bang,and if the trend from this morning GFS continues

i think our thread will become quite busy again

C.S

The Country Tracks forecast picked up on it, with the promise of "much colder" weather after the up comming mild week, so fingers crossed!

[damianslaw]

Another grim day. Heavy incessant rain with strong winds and grey thick leaden skies with low cloud and mist cloaking the fells down to about 150m.

Miserable in every way - a complete washout weekend.

The radar forecasts suggests another 18-24 hours of rain. Tonight looks like being particularly wet as another pulse of very heavy precipitation moves across from the Irish Sea courtesy of another low development.

Looking forward to tuesday - a brief respite from all this rain.

[AderynCoch]

WOW you must of been bored LOL.

<BR>Copy and paste, my friend. Takes two seconds: http://en.wikipedia....copy,_and_paste<BR><BR>Anyway, the rain has finally ceased here. For now anyway. Still far too mild (12C). Edited February 6, 2011 by AderynCoch

[AderynCoch]

WOW you must of been bored LOL.

Copy and paste, my friend. Takes two seconds: http://en.wikipedia....copy,_and_paste

Anyway, the rain has finally ceased here. For now anyway. Still far too mild (12C).

[Terminal Moraine]

Another grim day. Heavy incessant rain with strong winds and grey thick leaden skies with low cloud and mist cloaking the fells down to about 150m.

Miserable in every way - a complete washout weekend.

The radar forecasts suggests another 18-24 hours of rain. Tonight looks like being particularly wet as another pulse of very heavy precipitation moves across from the Irish Sea courtesy of another low development.

Looking forward to tuesday - a brief respite from all this rain.

Mmmm glorious, send it down here. It was like that here yesterday, bar the low cloud, but today is just dry, cloudy and windy, gusting to around 50 mph.

[cheshire snow]

For those new or still learning how to read the models(like me)

Steve Murr has just posted the MT on what to watch out for on tonights runs(for the possible next cold spell)

C.S

[Jay Lad]

What a turn around over the last week or so, look at these runs My link My link My link - bitterly cold East to North East winds, also to note the operational and control runs for London are basically showing us something we haven't seen since Jan 1987. It could certainly change but the enphasis on the cold is growing. The Met office have also now updated their long term forecast to cold and even very cold.

[cheshire snow]

Another nice run by the 12Z,UKMO also seem to be onbaord as well

Long way to go yet but makes model watching a bit more intresting...

C.S

[itsnowjoke]

Copy and paste, my friend. Takes two seconds: http://en.wikipedia....copy,_and_paste

Anyway, the rain has finally ceased here. For now anyway. Still far too mild (12C).

yes maybe for you, im no computer wizard and i can only do what i do

wazzing it down here again after a brief pause.

10c

i also now have a leaking roof flippin rain,grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr more expence.

anyway i have just looked in the model output thread and cant make head nor tail of it one minute looking good for a cold spell and then someone else posts that i wont happen not sure who to believe, if the weather is set to continue like this for the rest of winter all i can say is roll on spring. and i never thought i would say that either.

Edited February 6, 2011 by snowwhere?

[cheshire snow]

yes maybe for you, im no computer wizard and i can only do what i do

wazzing it down here again after a brief pause.

10c

i also now have a leaking roof flippin rain,grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr more expence.

anyway i have just looked in the model output thread and cant make head nor tail of it one minute looking good for a cold spell and then someone else posts that i wont happen not sure who to believe, if the weather is set to continue like this for the rest of winter all i can say is roll on spring. and i never thought i would say that either.

There is about 4 posters i look out for on the MT(not going to mane them)you will know who.....

C.S

[Liam J]

A wet and horrible day here with rain on and off temp 9.3c, currently dry atm ahead of the next system which is looking quite interesting indeed on the latest sat loop, i think this could be quite potent and more so than the models are progging with the gfs 12z showing a marked upgrade with this feauture from earlier runs

http://www.sat24.com/eu

[Backtrack]

Another nice run by the 12Z,UKMO also seem to be onbaord as well

Long way to go yet but makes model watching a bit more intresting...

C.S

12z is fantastic. Brings in the cold much earlier and prolongs it.

Some lovely blocking for a short time also.

Hopefully this will verify, as I have said before, some serious trending now and even the Met Office are starting to sense the cold.

[Lancashire Lass]

This rain sure is persistent. It literally hasn't let up for the past 2 days has it. Coming up for about 30mm in the past 48hours. Lots of flooding around here. How's everyone else doing?

[Backtrack]

This rain sure is persistent. It literally hasn't let up for the past 2 days has it. Coming up for about 30mm in the past 48hours. Lots of flooding around here. How's everyone else doing?

Rain stopped here ages ago, maybe 3am?

Totals were around 14mm according to my station.

[Jay Lad]

I've recored 71mm over the past 2 days, then again I am a high level area, Buxton has had almost 90mm I think.

[bridgechad]

74mm of rain so far this month

[Osbourne One-Nil]

123mm this month so far here, and not far off 40% of last year's total already!

[Lancashire Lass]

123mm this month so far here, and not far off 40% of last year's total already!

Wowza! :o That is a heck of a lot of rain. Still raining here.

[simon29]

Is that for the whole year osbourne!!

[damianslaw]

Still raining moderately here. Luckily we have not seen any particularly intense rain over the past 24 hours or so which has helped to ensure we have been spared any flooding so fare. Intense prolonged rainfall around these parts quickly results in flash flooding with streams and rivers unable to hold the quick surge of water.

As a result the rivers have had time to bear the rain and are not nearly as high as they were this time 3 weeks ago.

Even so this weekend has been worse than 15/16 Jan - simply because the rain has never relented whereas on the 16th Jan it quickly dissapated at lunchtime.

Temps have also dropped in the past few hours down to 6 degrees a signal of some colder uppers within the low pressure. The fells will see a cover of snow by morning above about 650m I suspect.

[Osbourne One-Nil]

Last year we had 703mm of rain, which was only about 60% average, and so far this year we've had 260mm of rain already, making it the joint wettest start to a year in the 13 years I've been recording.

This time last year, we'd had 41mm of rain and for previous years to this date;

2009 - 212mm

2008 - 235mm

2007 - 170mm

2006 - 85mm

2005 - 260mm

[Thunder Snow]

Rivers are high, but will cope lol.

[Liam J]

Temp has fallen here to 5.1c

Gales and rain will move in form the SW in the early hours courtesy if that deepening low SW of Ireland.

met office have 60mph gusts for my location during monday morning, easing through the day, and I hope there is not to much rain as the rivers are fit to burst round here.