Virtual Chase Thread 2011

[DubWeatherAddict]

Tornado warning issued for just West of longview.

[NL]

Quite an incredible 24hrs state-side with 976 severe weather reports of which 20 where for tornadoes, although these are still preliminary reports and yet to be verified by the NWS its still quite a severe weather outbreak...

http://www.spc.noaa..../yesterday.html

Edited April 5, 2011 by NL

[Paul Sherman]

SPC Have a Day 3 In Kansas to look forward to on Thursday.

Then the strange one in my eyes is the omition of Days 4 & 5 - They must be totally disregarding the GFS Solution and going with other Models as I am seeing a breachable Cap, decent enough Upper Winds and a sharp dryline.

- Insane Cape Friday 6pm

- 6pm Initiation along the Dryline

- Insane Cape Saturday 6pm

- Almost Carbon Copy of Friday

Sundays Risk looks likelyto be across the Ohio & Tennessee Valleys.

Paul S

[Paul Sherman]

SPC Now added in the Day 3 for Friday over the areas GFS Nailed last Saturday (That is why this Model is so good in the 4-10 day range) Looks like an Impulse ejecting across the TX/OK Border will kick off Supercells.

Expect SPC To include a Day 4 (Saturday) and keep the Day 6 much further East as well.

Paul S

[nsrobins]

Hey, SPC got in before I did!

I think Friday could be the first big day for southern plains storms, Paul. I'll stick my neck out and sit in Vernon, TX. Dissolving cap, loads of CAPE and a little DL bulge to get those storms going. Directional shear not brilliant but NAM has a little 30kn+ LLJ injection from 21Z to get things going.

Moisture is impressive.

May have to reposition Thurs but I'm enjoying the break and I'm off to The Big Texan to get my virtual meat fix this evening!

Edited April 6, 2011 by nsrobins

[Paul Sherman]

Indeed Neil

GFS Has had this nailed since last Friday and the Latest SWODY4-8 Just coming out now is Showing Saturday as "Severe" as expected, Sunday a tad further east again in the Dixie Valleys. Much further ahead to next Tuesday shows another Strongish Trough ejecting across the Plains just in time for the first Brit Chasing Teams arrival, they must be salivating at the Outlook at the moment!

Thursday sees me at the Moment on the KS/OK Border but not expecting much in the way of Tornado activity.

Friday at the moment I like just North of Oklahoma City (Subject to change obviously)

Saturday looking like another Emporia to western MO Day.

After that would possibly go for Southern Illinois on Sunday before travelling back on Monday in readiness for Tuesdays System.

It's like May already out there :wacko:

[Tom Lynch]

Indeed Neil

GFS Has had this nailed since last Friday and the Latest SWODY4-8 Just coming out now is Showing Saturday as "Severe" as expected, Sunday a tad further east again in the Dixie Valleys. Much further ahead to next Tuesday shows another Strongish Trough ejecting across the Plains just in time for the first Brit Chasing Teams arrival, they must be salivating at the Outlook at the moment!

Thursday sees me at the Moment on the KS/OK Border but not expecting much in the way of Tornado activity.

Friday at the moment I like just North of Oklahoma City (Subject to change obviously)

Saturday looking like another Emporia to western MO Day.

After that would possibly go for Southern Illinois on Sunday before travelling back on Monday in readiness for Tuesdays System.

It's like May already out there :wacko:

I would for the moment agree with you Paul. At least that way I can hitch a lift with you. My friends sister lives im Illinois and is currently in the firing line. I shall of course , as i always do give her an early warning. She hates me. The strange thing is we are more aware about her weather than she is, well until they loose the roof.

Tom

[Paul Sherman]

Latest Model Guidance all pointing towards a MODERATE Risk for Saturday across Iowa and Illinois, might even be upgraded to our 1st HIGH risk of the year In the next few days if the NAM & RUC Follow the GFS

Edit: My Thoughts for Friday and Saturday in my Blog Below

http://plainschaser.blogspot.com/2011/04/chase-target-8th-april-2011.html

[nsrobins]

I'm definitely not dismissing Friday yet Paul, especially with NAM slowing things down a bit. I still see a few big DL cells on the OK/TX border just west of the I35 before energy dissipates after sunset.

Saturday and I agree it's looking big BUT I'd hold a bit further west in central/E KS from what I can see just now. The highest directional shear is further NE but I think initiation could be Emporia/Topeka so I'll be in Topeka by early Sat pm. I also agree a Moderate upgrade seems likely.

Wow, this virtual chasing certainly eats up the gas!

[Paul Sherman]

Eurgh

SPC Think Friday's Risk is now

Total..........See Below But it rhymes with Horrocks

:lol: :lol:

[Dorsetbred]

Eurgh

SPC Think Friday's Risk is now

Total..........See Below But it rhymes with Horrocks

:lol: :lol:

And you want ME to believe 21 days out. oh no way......

[nsrobins]

Eurgh

SPC Think Friday's Risk is now

Total..........See Below But it rhymes with Horrocks

:lol: :lol:

How can I put this politely:

They're wrong

[Paul Sherman]

Oh I dont hang on there every word Neil, many times we have chased nearly 200 Miles outside SPC's Risk Box and scored Supercells.

Just thought the chart look a bit Phallic

[Paul Sherman]

A SWODY3 Moderate with 45% Hatched is nearly always a Pre-Cursor to getting a HIGH Risk on Sunday, I would not also discount the Day2 (Sat 9th) being Upgraded the Moderate Risk as well.

Paul S

[Paul Sherman]

Having been bitten badly on 22nd May Last year when the risk area shifted from North Kansas to North Central South Dakota to keep it real would blow off todays Risk in Oklahoma (Mainly Hail and Wind) and be heading North on I-35 To Wichita and then onwards on the Turnpike to Kansas City and the I-35 To Des Moines for overnight Friday Night.

Would not want to be out of position for what looks like a Severe weather outbreak Saturday and Sunday in the Upper Mid West.

Updated my Blog This Morning With My Thoughts

http://plainschaser.blogspot.com/2011/04/9th-10th-april-severe-weather-outbreak.html

[Nick F]

Fantastic looking set-up its looking for Sunday atm!

Strong mid-level SW'erly jet at 500mb with IA, MN, WI and NW IL in the exit zone, with winds from S/SSE/SE at the surface, which will create strong deep layer shear:

+Hot and rather moist airmass in place:

creating lots of CAPE:

= strong supercells with a good chance of some big tornadoes.

Des Moines slap bang in the middle of Iowa state certainly a good stop Saturday night for the big day, though Saturday itself could be good across IA and a little further W and SW across KS and NE.

Question will be whether to target west for the dryline or further east along the warm front both days.

[Paul Sherman]

Interesting developments for Today for Central and West Central Oklahoma. Latest RUC Breaks out a Stonking Supercell near to I-40 @ 21z And tracks it ENE Just North of OK City, The other models follow suit as well.

Winds are backed and there is 3,000jkg of Cape.

If a Tornado does not drop then the Structure on this Dryline Beast (Should it break out) will be breath-taking.

Might be an idea to keep an eye on Live Streaming tonight just in case any of the local Norman grads are blowing Tomorrow's "Day after Tomorrow Scenario" in the Upper Midwest and chasing local today in effectively their backyard.

Paul S

[Cookie]

I hope this is just the start I dont want it all over before I go :lol:

[craig1uk]

MD issued for OK

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0371

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0226 PM CDT FRI APR 08 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL INTO NRN OK...S CNTRL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 081926Z - 082100Z

WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN NEXT HOUR OR SO AS CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT

CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF OK INTO FAR S-CNTRL KS. MAIN

THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM AND CAN BE

MAINTAINED.

WHILE A CAP IS EXPECTED TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FROM

DEVELOPING BENEATH LARGE SCALE UPPER RIDGE NOW SHIFTING EWD INTO THE

OZARK MTNS...A WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSE MIGRATING THROUGH SWLY UPPER

LEVEL FLOW INTO WRN OK MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT...IN CONJUNCTION

WITH SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG N-S ORIENTED DRY LINE ACROSS WRN OK...TO

FOCUS DEEP LAYER ASCENT AND DEVELOP AN UPDRAFT OR TWO STRONG ENOUGH

TO BREAK THE CAP.

CONDITIONS APPEAR MOST FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION AROUND

21Z IN THE VICINITY OF KFSI. VIS SATELLITE SHOWED A DEVELOPING CU

FIELD ALONG THE RED RIVER TO NEAR KLTS TO NEAR KFSI. WHILE THIS

CONVECTION REMAINED SHALLOW AS OF 1830Z...MESOANALYSIS INDICATED

THAT MLCAPE VALUES HAD INCREASED TO AROUND 3000 J/KG AND THE CAP WAS

WEAKENING DUE TO SFC HEATING. SFC OBS INDICATED SIGNIFICANT WARMING

OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID

80S. DEWPOINTS WERE ALSO BEING MAINTAINED IN THE MID 60S ON SELY SFC

FLOW OF 10-15 KT. IN ADDITION TO THESE OBSERVATIONAL CLUES...HI-RES

MODELS /HRRR AND WRF-NMM/ HAVE BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS

INITIATION LOCATION/TIMING. HOWEVER...AS STATED EARLY...MODELS ALSO

INDICATE A VERY CONDITIONAL THREAT WITH ONLY ONE OR TWO STORMS BEING

GENERATED. ANOTHER AREA OF POSSIBLE INITIATION COULD BE FURTHER N

TOWARD N-CNTRL OK CLOSER TO A W-E ORIENTED STATIONARY

BOUNDARY/MOISTURE GRADIENT WHICH IS ALSO SERVING AS AN AREA FOR WEAK

SFC CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER...THE CAP IS STRONGER HERE AND INSTABILITY

IS SOMEWHAT WEAKER. ADDITIONALLY...SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF CUMULUS

IN THIS REGION REMAINS POOR.

THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN OVERCOME THE CAP IS

EXPECTED TO BE LARGE HAIL WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5-8.5

C/KM. STRONG WIND GUSTS WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN SFC

TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS OF AROUND 20 TO 25 DEGREES AND

RELATIVELY DRY MID LEVELS ABOVE SHALLOW MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.

..STOPPKOTTE.. 04/08/2011

[John Hanrahan]

I must say I like some of the new features on the Live chase page on TVN. Especially the local weather warnings when you click on the map.

[craig1uk]

Yea, their twistadata page is good too, with the forecast soundings available via the same means

Also, spc just issued an MD for Georgia, might get to see an isolated supercell later on on sky sports ! REALLY wish I had 3d now

Edited April 8, 2011 by craig1uk

[Andy P]

Yea, their twistadata page is good too, with the forecast soundings available via the same means

Also, spc just issued an MD for Georgia, might get to see an isolated supercell later on on sky sports ! REALLY wish I had 3d now

I'll continue watching the golf just in case.

[craig1uk]

Looks like things might be kicking off in OK,,

WOUS64 KWNS 082230

WOU8

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 108

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

535 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2011

TORNADO WATCH 108 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT FOR THE

FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

KSC001-003-015-017-019-031-035-049-059-073-077-079-099-111-125-

133-139-173-191-205-207-090600-

/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0108.110408T2235Z-110409T0600Z/

KS

. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALLEN ANDERSON BUTLER

CHASE CHAUTAUQUA COFFEY

COWLEY ELK FRANKLIN

GREENWOOD HARPER HARVEY

LABETTE LYON MONTGOMERY

NEOSHO OSAGE SEDGWICK

SUMNER WILSON WOODSON

OKC003-011-015-017-035-039-043-047-053-055-071-073-075-083-093-

103-105-113-117-119-147-149-151-153-090600-

/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0108.110408T2235Z-110409T0600Z/

OK

. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALFALFA BLAINE CADDO

CANADIAN CRAIG CUSTER

DEWEY GARFIELD GRANT

GREER KAY KINGFISHER

KIOWA LOGAN MAJOR

NOBLE NOWATA OSAGE

PAWNEE PAYNE WASHINGTON

WAonionsA WOODS WOODWARD

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...TSA...TOP...

22.31 utc

[Arron]

Some goings on on that cell near Enid here http://www.chasertv.com/api/static_pages/lite/239_mike-phelps.php

[Arron]

Few stream about for that one, Andy Gabrielson right on it too http://www.severestudios.com/cgi-bin/player.pl?username=andy.gabrielson&uid=140