Virtual Chase Thread 2011

[Mesoscale]

Is Stormtrack down for anyone else?

Yes, it wont even let me on the site and NOAA servers are a little bit slow today aswell.

[NL]

First tornado warning today

041

WFUS54 KLIX 081902

TORLIX

LAC033-037-047-077-121-125-081945-

/O.NEW.KLIX.TO.W.0012.110308T1902Z-110308T1945Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA

102 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHWESTERN EAST BATON ROUGE PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ZACHARY...BAKER...

SOUTHWESTERN EAST FELICIANA PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...

THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF JACKSON...

NORTHWESTERN IBERVILLE PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...

SOUTHEASTERN POINTE COUPEE PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...

WEST BATON ROUGE PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...

SOUTHEASTERN WEST FELICIANA PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 145 PM CST

* AT 101 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR RAMAH...OR

15 MILES WEST OF PLAQUEMINE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO

GROSSE TETE...MARINGOUIN...ERWINVILLE AND SLAUGHTER

[NL]

Tornado watch probabilities.

WWUS40 KWNS 081909

WWP2

TORNADO WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WT 0042

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0109 PM CST TUE MAR 08 2011

WT 0042

PROBABILITY TABLE:

PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 60%

PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : 40%

PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 50%

PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 30%

PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 60%

PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : 30%

PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : 90%

&&

ATTRIBUTE TABLE:

MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 2.0

MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 60

MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 500

MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 22035

PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : NO

Probable Tornado watch for SE Oklahoma and NE Texas.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0206

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0111 PM CST TUE MAR 08 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX...EXTREME SERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 081911Z - 082115Z

AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE

NEXT 1-2 HRS AND A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING NOW ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE

DRYLINE ESPECIALLY OVER N CNTRL TX WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN

WELL INTO THE 70S F. MEANWHILE...CU HAVE BEEN INCREASING FROM THE

SURFACE LOW OVER S CNTRL OK SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE WHERE DEWPOINTS

ARE IN THE 60S F.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW STRONG VEERING OF THE WINDS FROM THE W

SIDE OF THE METROPLEX WWD...INDICATIVE OF STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE

RATES AND MIXING. HERE...HIGH BASED CU WERE DEVELOPING AS

WELL...BUT IN A REGION WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY FOR STORMS.

CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG THE DRYLINE AS IT MIXES

EWD. CONTINUED HEATING AND ADVECTION OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE NWD

SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF

HAIL...PERHAPS VERY LARGE...AS WELL AS A FEW TORNADOES GIVEN

SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL SHEAR.

EWD PROGRESSION OF STORMS AND TORNADO THREAT MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED

BY MUCH COOLER AIR TO THE E...WHILE CAPPING WILL LIMIT DEVELOPMENT

Edited March 8, 2011 by NL

[NL]

Storms showing along the dry-line approaching Sherman County Texas.

Edited March 8, 2011 by NL

[Arron]

Storms firing nicely now north of Dallas

[Gorky]

Tornado warned cell heading towards Paris right now up Highway 82. That's the road from Sherman so well done Paul on your chase location

Edited March 8, 2011 by Gorky

[Gorky]

Very strong couplet over Brookston one scan ago. The radars are scanning very high into the storm as the Paris area is an infmous radar blackspot equidistant from 3 radar sites at considerable range so hopefully for those in Paris, this is just a couplet at higher altitudes and it hasn't worked its way to the ground yet.

[NL]

Live feed from News8 helicopter.

http://www.wfaa.com/video/featured-videos/LIVE-Watch-News-8-severe-weather-coverage-117610668.html

[Paul Sherman]

Thanks Nathan

Btw there should be a Red Marker on SPC Soon as a Brief Tornado was confirmed 5 Miles SW Of Paris (Texas) around about 1610 local Time.

Paul S

[Paul Sherman]

Same Supercell which is Cyclic and Right Moving along the Boundary has dropped another Tornado in or near Clarksville which is due East of Paris

[TornadoJo]

Anyone seen the forecast for Florida Wed's/Thursday. Surprisingly upgraded for thursday to scattered isolated thunderstorms. Some may be severe.

*Insert Happy Dance Here*

[dogs32]

3 Tornado Reports

2215 BROOKSTON LAMAR TX 3362 9570 AT LEAST TWO LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED A BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN SOUTHWEST OF BROOKSTON. AT LEAST ONE BARN WAS DAMAGED. TIME WAS BETWEEN 410 PM AND 415 PM. (FWD)

2320 4 E DETROIT RED RIVER TX 3366 9520 CHASERS CONFIRMED RAIN WRAPPED TORNADO ON THE GROUND NEAR BAGWELL..EAST OF DETROIT ALONG US 82 (SHV)

2330 2 N CLARKSVILLE RED RIVER TX 3364 9506 CHASERS AND SPOTTERS CONFIRM TORNADO ON THE GROUND ... RAIN WRAPPED. SEMI ON A CAR ... TRAILERS FLIPPED ... POWERLINES DOWN ... MANY ROOFS DAMAGED TO HOMES.

brings the total up 83

[Paul Sherman]

http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/showthread.php?26944-3-08-11-REPORTS-TX-OK-AR-LA&goto=newpost

Picture of the Sherman - Paris - Clarksville Cyclic Tornadic Supercell.

Not great and pretty rain wrapped but you can see the Circulation in there, reminds me of our Medicine Lodge HP Tornado Pic that Nathan Shot on the 6th May 2007!

[NL]

There's this video shot by Andy Gabrielson and Dick McGowan on the Clarksville tornadic cell. Very hard to see as Paul has mentioned it was rain wrapped.

[Tom Lynch]

Anyone seen the forecast for Florida Wed's/Thursday. Surprisingly upgraded for thursday to scattered isolated thunderstorms. Some may be severe.

*Insert Happy Dance Here*

Hey Jo

Where abouts in Florida are you?

Tom

[TornadoJo]

Orlando, Up the top of i-drive.

We had a nice thunderstorm last night. Was in a cab going down route 192 and we got slammed. Torrential rain, amazing (well better than england but not as good as supercell) lightening and thunder that made Jay jump out of his skin!!

Was practicing my camera skills

Edited March 10, 2011 by TornadoJo

[Paul Sherman]

Models Overnight are now in pretty Solid Agreement about the next round of Severe Weather for the Plains. This Period being the 19-21st March with Sunday 20th March looking like it could be quite a Tornado Day. Upper 50's to Mid 60's Dewpoints ahead of a Dryline and with 2 days of Southerly Fetch it is now just down to the orientation of the Trough and where the Severe Weather Sets ups.

I would expect SPC To put in a Risk area in their 4-8 Day Outlook in the next few days probably Wednesday at that point being a "Day 5"

Either way with it being a Weekend there should be plenty of Chasers on this and plenty of Streams come Sunday Evening!

Paul S

[Tom Lynch]

Yes Paul it is looking good

I have some friends arriving tomorrow in Kansas City. They will be about two weeks. They wanted some tips on where to go. I have drawn them up a round trip. Lawrance KS to Oklahoma City taking in the Cowboy Museum, Eischens Bar , the Big Texan. (wait for it) Palo duro canyon, Dorothy's house Liberal , Dodge City, Greensburg. God I want to be there with them.

I will now give them the heads up for the week end.

OK this next link is a treat if you have been to Eischens bar and something to look forward to if you have not been there.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cad2Gx75R3U

Tom

Edited March 14, 2011 by Tom Lynch

[Paul Sherman]

Tom

By the looks of the Models all those places you have sent them will be under the Gun all Weekend

Looks like a Good Shout at Supercells on Saturday 19th in Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas.

Then Sunday looks like the BIG Day in Central Kansas and Central Oklahoma with a Dryline Set-Up.

They might get some respite on Monday as the Risk moves further East into Misery and the Ohio Valley.

------------------------------------------------------------

OMG - I can almost taste that Chicken. To anyone who has not been to Eischens with us yet on a Chase Trip the place is incredible. Probably the best Fried Chicken you will EVER Taste with their own secret recipe, the hospitality we get treated to over there is like nothing else, we have even been known to serve ourselves from behind the bar.

Rest assured if we are anywhere near Okarche we will be stopping by, I took a whole Tour there 2 years ago and could not get them out of the place :lol:

[Tom Lynch]

Tom

By the looks of the Models all those places you have sent them will be under the Gun all Weekend

Looks like a Good Shout at Supercells on Saturday 19th in Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas.

Then Sunday looks like the BIG Day in Central Kansas and Central Oklahoma with a Dryline Set-Up.

They might get some respite on Monday as the Risk moves further East into Misery and the Ohio Valley.

Some of the Chasers over on ST Are Bigging this event up as the first Major La Nina Outbreak, still too early to tell but all pointing that way at present.

Oh well i have sent a message to their son , he is in college in Lawrence KS. I have told them to contact me so that I can keep them informed about weather issues. They have never seen a proper storm. Good place to learn , hey what

Tom

[ian cameron]

Yes Paul it is looking good

I have some friends arriving tomorrow in Kansas City. They will be about two weeks. They wanted some tips on where to go. I have drawn them up a round trip. Lawrance KS to Oklahoma City taking in the Cowboy Museum, Eischens Bar , the Big Texan. (wait for it) Palo duro canyon, Dorothy's house Liberal , Dodge City, Greensburg. God I want to be there with them.

I will now give them the heads up for the week end.

OK this next link is a treat if you have been to Eischens bar and something to look forward to if you have not been there.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cad2Gx75R3U

Tom

Damm you Tom!

now all I want to eat is some chicken I can almost taste it arrgh never mind nearly there

[Paul Sherman]

Models Overnight are now in pretty Solid Agreement about the next round of Severe Weather for the Plains. This Period being the 19-21st March with Sunday 20th March looking like it could be quite a Tornado Day. Upper 50's to Mid 60's Dewpoints ahead of a Dryline and with 2 days of Southerly Fetch it is now just down to the orientation of the Trough and where the Severe Weather Sets ups.

I would expect SPC To put in a Risk area in their 4-8 Day Outlook in the next few days probably Wednesday at that point being a "Day 5"

Either way with it being a Weekend there should be plenty of Chasers on this and plenty of Streams come Sunday Evening!

Paul S

Pmsl

Currently looking for a Job so maybe I should Contact the SPC To see if they have any vacancys :lol:

Anyhoo Looking Good with a Firm "Days 4-5" on the SWOD4-8 Outlook on the SPC And in Fantastic Chasing areas namely The Panhandles and Western and Central Kansas.

[Tom Lynch]

It is looking good for my friends whilst out there but they aint chasers. They will be doing a round trip and will be I40 heading west on Saturday, north into the oklahoma/Kansas panhandles. At Eischens Friday night and the Big Texan on Saturday night. So may see some action even if they do not want it.

[Gorky]

The threat for tonight and the following few days has been shifted somewhat north and tornado threat is currently progged to be low (though I wouldn't rule anything out for the next couple of days- we had a report in Texas yesterday under very marginal conditions). This coming weekend looks pretty explosive if the GFS is anything to go by with a possible day before event on the Friday if cap breaks also. Something to keep an eye on although at almost a week away, nothing is set in stone...

[Paul Sherman]

Recent MD Issued

Decent Cape upto 2,000jkg and Backed Surface Winds might squeeze a Tornado in parts of Iowa in the next 3 hours.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0241

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0251 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN/SRN IA...NWRN AND EXTREME N-CENTRAL

MO...EXTREME SERN NEB...NERN KS.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 201951Z - 202145Z

POTENTIAL INCREASING FOR SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT INVOF TRIPLE POINT AND

COLD FRONT DESCRIBED BELOW...AND PERHAPS MORE DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT

OVER WARM SECTOR.

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED TRIPLE POINT OVER CENTRAL IA JUST NW

DSM...WITH COLD FRONT SWWD NEAR BIE-RSL LINE. WARM FRONT WAS DRAWN

ACROSS DSM AREA SEWD PAST BRL...MORE DIFFUSE AND PERHAPS

DOUBLE-STRUCTURED ACROSS SERN IA AND NWRN IL. SECONDARY WARM

FRONTAL ZONE WAS EVIDENT WITHIN 20-30 NM S OF I-80...WHERE

DIFFERENTIAL HEATING HAS OCCURRED INVOF SRN FRINGE OF EARLIER

CLOUD/PRECIP REGIME. THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...PRIND WARM FRONT WILL

CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD OVER I-80 CORRIDOR AND SHARPEN/CONSOLIDATE

OVER ERN IA...WHILE COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS SWRN/S-CENTRAL

IA...REMAINDER SERN NEB...AND INTO NWRN MO AND NERN KS.

VIS IMAGERY INDICATES VIGOROUS WARM-SECTOR DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING

FROM S-N...CHARACTERIZED BY TRANSITION FROM THICK STRATOCU OVER SWRN

IA TO LARGE-WAVELENGTH BILLOWS NEAR IA/MO BORDER. CU AND HORIZONTAL

ROLLS HAVE BECOME EVIDENT OVER PORTIONS ERN KS WNW-SSW OF MKC AND

OVER IA/MO BORDER NEAR I-35...INVOF SFC MOIST AXIS. ADDITIONAL

HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WILL RESULT IN WEAKENING CINH AND

STRENGTHENING BUOYANCY. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MLCAPE

RISING TO 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS NWRN MO AND NERN KS...AND

1000-1500 J/KG OVER MUCH OF SRN IA PRIOR TO COLD FROPA. WLY

COMPONENT OF SFC WINDS S OF WARM FRONT WILL LIMIT LOW-LEVEL

HODOGRAPH SIZE...THOUGH FAVORABLE 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDE

IS FCST. STRONGEST SRH...TOTAL SHEAR AND BOUNDARY-LAYER VORTICITY

IN SUPPORT OF SUPERCELLS WILL DEVELOP INVOF WARM FRONT...WHERE SFC

WINDS ARE RELATIVELY BACKED. SWWD EXTENT OF EXTENT OF BACKBUILDING

INVOF COLD FRONT IS UNCERTAIN GIVEN STRENGTHENING CAPPING AND WEAKER

FRONTAL ASCENT EXPECTED WITH SWD EXTENT...BUT SVR THREAT MAY INCLUDE

PORTIONS NERN KS AND MKC AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.