Virtual Chase Thread 2011

[Rob]

Truly amazing the type of storms they can get out there. I think i'm going to have to start tracking them more, i give up with the UK lol!

[Paul Sherman]

Well if you want to come in just 4 weeks (1st Chase Day) There is 1 space open at the ridiculous price of £1,250, the usual price is £1,700 and it is this price because of a Late Cancellation.

To put it into context the US Tours charge (Cheapest £2,500) and dearest £4,000 for 6 days and not 10

The saying is "You Only Live Once"

[Rob]

I would love to, but my department has just been told that one of us is being madre redundant and really need to save all my money, but will definately think about it next year

[bunny1972]

could someone please tell me what is the best radar site is to watch storms in usa thanks

[chionomaniac]

That dew point chart is truly amazing. Now that is the sort of dry line that I want to see come the middle of May!

[Paul Sherman]

My Chase Target and write up below in my blog

http://plainschaser.blogspot.com/2011/04/3rd-april-2011-target-zone.html

Paul S

[NL]

As expected the SPC at the NWS have upgraded their severe forecast to moderate with a 10% tornado risk affecting NE Missouri into western/northern Illinois. Moderate risk covers eastern Kansas into western Missouri where huge 'hailers' can be expected.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

[Paul Sherman]

- :lol:

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1258 AM CDT SUN APR 03 2011

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN KS AND NW

MO...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-MO

VALLEY...CNTRL PLAINS...SRN PLAINS...WRN OZARKS AND WRN GREAT

LAKES...

...SEVERE WEATHER EVENT EXPECTED FROM ERN KS NEWD ACROSS NRN MO INTO

WRN AND NRN IL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

...MID-MO VALLEY/CNTRL PLAINS/MID-MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND CNTRL

ROCKIES TODAY. WELL AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A POWERFUL 65 TO 80 KT

LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID-MO VALLEY AND LOWER OH

VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL RAPIDLY TRANSPORT

MOISTURE NEWD INTO THE SLIGHT RISK AREA BY MID-AFTERNOON WITH SFC

DEWPOINTS LIKELY REACHING INTO THE MID 60S F FROM ERN KS NEWD TO WRN

IL. THE MOIST AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP

ACROSS A BROAD AREA AHEAD OF A FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT. AS THE

CAPPING INVERSION WEAKENS AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG

THE FRONT...NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE

WITH A BROKEN LINE DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z SUGGEST THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY WILL BE

LOCATED IN ERN KS AND WRN MO WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO

REACH THE 2500 TO 3500 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION...A PLUME OF STEEP

MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS FORECAST TO NOSE INTO ERN KS AND NW MO

WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE QUITE STRONG. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL

LIKELY SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH A WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR

LARGE HAIL ESPECIALLY ACROSS ERN KS AND NW MO WHERE A MODERATE RISK

AREA HAS BEEN OUTLOOKED. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE

MORE DOMINATE SUPERCELLS THAT REMAIN DISCRETE. TORNADOES WILL ALSO

BE POSSIBLE WITH THE BETTER-ORGANIZED SUPERCELLS. THE TORNADO THREAT

MAY BE GREATEST NEWD ACROSS NRN MO INTO WRN AND NRN IL WHERE THE

STORMS WILL HAVE ACCESS TO GREATER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. IF DISCRETE

ROTATING STORMS CAN PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING WHEN THE

LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN...THEN AN ISOLATED STRONG

TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE. DUE TO THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW OF 60 TO

70 KT AND BECAUSE OF THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY FORECAST...WIND

DAMAGE COULD BE WIDESPREAD FROM ERN KS NEWD ACROSS NRN MO INTO NW IL

ESPECIALLY IF A NEARLY CONTINUOUS LINE OF INTENSE STORMS DEVELOPS

DURING THE EARLY EVENING.

...SRN PLAINS/WRN OZARKS...

MOISTENING OF THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TODAY

AS THE SRN END OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES EWD ACROSS THE

REGION. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON

FROM CNTRL AND NORTH TX EXTENDING NWD INTO CNTRL AND ERN OK WHERE

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2500 J/KG. IN SPITE OF

THE INSTABILITY...A CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE

FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE

DEVELOPMENT. SEVERAL MODEL FORECASTS INITIATE STORMS IN NE OK AND NW

AR DURING THE LATE EVENING WITH STORMS EXPANDING SWWD ALONG A COLD

FRONT DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE MODERATE INSTABILITY...STEEP

MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE

SUFFICIENT FOR A LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT. AFTER

MIDNIGHT...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR SWWD ACROSS

CNTRL AND NORTH TX AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE

NORTHWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN CNTRL AND NORTH TX AT 09Z TO 12Z

SUGGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL WIND

DAMAGE AND HAIL THREAT.

[nsrobins]

Been away from the analysis for 24hrs but as expected SPC have gone moderate and as it stands the action is shunted a bit further east than I originally thought to the KS/MO border.

Hailers the order of the day but any cell moving into the far W of MO will encounter increasing shear parameters and readily produce a tornado.

Could be the odd EF3+ later this evening so I'll be virtually chasing this one.

[craig1uk]

Alot of storms have been just east of the plains so far this year, is this normal for this time of the season, and should we expect this trend to persist / work its way back west a bit later on?

Also, just noticed that spc are displaying zulu time in gmt still, does this mean that 00z tonight will be at 1am here?

Edited April 3, 2011 by craig1uk

[nsrobins]

Alot of storms have been just east of the plains so far this year, is this normal for this time of the season, and should we expect this trend to persist / work its way back west a bit later on?

Also, just noticed that spc are displaying zulu time in gmt still, does this mean that 00z tonight will be at 1am here?

Yep that's correct - Zulu universal time is always GMT so you still need to add an hour onto any Zulu time quoted during our summer months.

[craig1uk]

Thanks , quite a fundamental point right there then :blush:

[Paul Sherman]

Craig

The very 1st Post on the Virtual Chase Thread and 2nd Paragraph shows what usually happens in a Strong La Nina Winter.

Pretty much going to plan at the moment, as for trending Westwards with time, that is the plan but anywhere West of I-35 Is woefully dry and scorched, little or no rain and the dryline always setting up east of there means only one thing, hot dry desert air creating wildfires in the Panhandle and Western Oklahoma.

Lets hope it changes in the next 4 weeks or we will be seeing a lot of Billy-Bob :lol:

[nsrobins]

Just having a peak at the 15Z RUC and I think SPC have missed the fact that the cap looks set to erode in EC KS at 22Z. I know a trigger will be required but in this case - a big loaded gun set-up - convection will readily initiate Emporia KS. This position is just in the lee of the surface low, on a slight dryline bulge, on the fringe of the precip water maxes and has massive CAPE available - not to mention huge EHIs once the cells mature.

I'm sticking here and expecting a cumulus field to develop in the next few hours.

[nsrobins]

Still quite liking my location. The 19Z Wichita sounding shows the cap weakening now and would still expect the inhibition to breakdown by 22Z at the latest - in a line Wichita to Topeka, KS.

Masses of energy out there (>3000 CAPE) and it looks hot. Plenty of Sunday chasers on the road I see.

[Paul Sherman]

Upon recent surface Analysise would be hot footing it up 35 North-Eastwards to get out of Kansas as the Surface Flow and Dryline are alligned exactly the same, no backing winds at all means "if" and that is a big if the dryline fires now it will line out really quickly, the best paramaters are further into MO & Illinois so this one might turn out to be a bust for me tonight. Would not make that distance with Kansas City in my way so really playing the Monster shelf clouds and hope something moves of the dryline and becomes discreet and stays discreet.

Btw temps in SW Oklahoma have just hit 100f with 56f Dewpoints, that means one thing and that is Monster Hail from High Based Supes, again the CAP looks unbreakable.

Paul S

[Paul Sherman]

Looks like Kick off is Imminant as I feared much further North East into Northern MO & Central, South Eastern Iowa.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0327

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0449 PM CDT SUN APR 03 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NCNTRL/NERN MO...SCNTRL/SERN IA...NWRN IL

AND FAR SW WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 032149Z - 032245Z

TSTM INITIATION IS LIKELY BETWEEN 22-23Z AND SUPERCELLS WITH VERY

LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO WILL BE

POSSIBLE. WW IS LIKELY...ROUGHLY 70 PERCENT CHANCE.

CUMULUS FIELD WAS DEEPENING LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SCNTRL/SERN

IA AND EXTREME NCNTRL MO WITHIN A WEAKENING CAP ALONG NOSE OF STEEP

LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. APPROACH OF LARGE-SCALE HEIGHT FALLS...NOW

OVER ERN NEB...WILL LIKELY BOOST OVERALL ASCENT AND AID IN TSTM

INITIATION ACROSS SCNTRL/SERN IA BY 23Z...SIMILAR TO LATEST RAPID

REFRESH AND RUC SOLUTIONS. ONCE STORMS BECOME ESTABLISHED...

MLCAPES TO 2000 J/KG AND VERTICAL SHEAR OF 40-45 KTS WILL BE

FAVORABLE FOR ROBUST ROTATING UPDRAFTS. VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE

RATES WILL YIELD VERY LARGE HAIL...ALTHOUGH A TORNADO/DAMAGING WINDS

WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

ACTIVITY MAY BACKBUILD SWWD ALONG THE APPROACH COLD FRONT LATER THIS

EVENING INTO NCNTRL MO...THOUGH COMPARATIVELY STRONGER CAP RENDERS

MORE UNCERTAINTY ACROSS THIS AREA.

[Paul Sherman]

Expect a Watch Box soon for NE Kansas - Dryline firing up now with that 3,000jkg of Cape

Sheesh - Storm West of Topeka near Junction City gone to just under 60dbz in 2 radar scans

Edit: Intercept Images on TVN Have a great view of them approaching the Mothership Supercell atm

[Paul Sherman]

Go onto TVN Live Chases

Click on Verne Carlson - Beautiful approach and perfect Stream along I-70 - Me thinks he is after some BIG Hail with those Dbz's at 70!!

Actually the guys in Intercept Images are more likely going to get cored Pmsl!

Supercell is taking on nice shape on radar but IS Behind the Cold Front which is a worry for it keeping going

[DubWeatherAddict]

Go onto TVN Live Chases

Click on Verne Carlson - Beautiful approach and perfect Stream along I-70 - Me thinks he is after some BIG Hail with those Dbz's at 70!!

Actually the guys in Intercept Images are more likely going to get cored Pmsl!

Supercell is taking on nice shape on radar but IS Behind the Cold Front which is a worry for it keeping going

looks like Verne is in Position ... LET THE SHOW BEGIN!

[Nick F]

Surprised there were no tornado reports last night, though plenty of big hail! I suppose though storms may have been high-based.

Turn of the woods and hills east of Mississippi later today, not great chase territory.

[Paul Sherman]

Surprised there were no tornado reports last night, though plenty of big hail! I suppose though storms may have been high-based.

Turn of the woods and hills east of Mississippi later today, not great chase territory.

Not really surprised at all Nick tbh, the surface flow and dryline were parralell at 00z as I noted last night, also the Cold Front came through much quicker than anticipated and turned it into a line, the winds were not backed at all and that was all the way to Illinois as well. The only thing of note was a Strong Gustnado near to Lawrence that Verne Carlson got on camera, which a Certain Mr Timmer called in as a Tornado, was a definate outflow feature on most of the cams I was watching last night, think someone might need to go back to the classroom at Norman

Today looks like a Squall line from hell in the Jungles so attention now switches to Friday and Saturday with a very nice Dryline Feature through Oklahoma, Western North Texas and Kansas, GFS Has been showing this consistantly now for 3 days and it is on the 06z as well. Could be a good couple of days with Cape once again plentiful at 3,500jkg and a sharp Dryline gradient.

Paul S

[NL]

I see some people are calling it a tornado/Gustnado 'Hybrid'..!!!

Here's a video from Jordan Hamilton and Tyler Constantini collectively called 'The Storm Patrol' of the 'Hybrid' decide for yourself. If you look carefully you can see a definite updraft but to call it a tornado.. I'm not so sure.

[chionomaniac]

From that video it is too difficult to say. I think a video from further away would determine exactly whether there was evidence of a funnel or what area of the storm the gustnado formed - It looks outflow dominated. Did the storm collapse soon after?

[Paul Sherman]

Well that has cheered me up NL - It boosts my Tornado Numbers up well over 100 if they are calling that a Tornado.

Have a look on ST Reports, there is a Video from further back, Outflow Dominate HP Cold Front Storm, No Wall Cloud and on the leading edge. It does not even make Contact to the base and almost 99% of Chasers said no rotation was present........apart from one group

Btw unrelated to this incident but me and Tony Gilbert saw an almost identical Gustnado during the 7th June 2007 High Risk Outbreak in South Dakota, that was so strong it smashed back windows of 5 cars in a convoy and trashed the forecourt of a petrol station, did not call it a Tornado though.......Hmm but maybe I should :lol: would mean only 6 for the half century

I Think the 2 glaring ommissions from this video are a, No shot of the funnel or Wall Cloud and b, They cut the veideo off when they drive through the dust and dirt, I think those 2 chasers knew it was a gustnado and lets just say some video editing has gone on. One bug bear of mine is chasers distorting the facts and numbers of tornadoes

**See The following Video in the link provided and see what you think**

http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/showthread.php?27193-4-3-11-REPORTS-KS-IA-MO&p=304801&viewfull=1#post304801