Virtual Chase Thread 2011

[NL]

A 10% tornado risk for the far NE of Kansas,SE Nebraska, NW Missouri and Central/SW Iowa, with a 5% risk flirting into Oklahoma and Illinois. Plenty of chasers out today hoping to bag a tornado or two as the next couple of weeks look quite 'dead' for severe weather as a blocking pattern is emerging, although this weekend could herald severe potential as a short wave is expected to move in from the Pacific. At the moment its looking likely to support surface cyclogenesis and in-turn cause destabilization which could affect the southern plains into the lower Mississippi valley.

Todays Tornado probability.

[NL]

Tornado watch issued ..

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 53

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

205 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN AND SOUTHERN IOWA

EASTERN KANSAS

WESTERN MISSOURI

EASTERN NEBRASKA

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 205 PM UNTIL

900 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE

MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 5 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF

STORM LAKE IOWA TO 20 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF CHANUTE KANSAS.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH

OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...SEVERE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH MID/LATE

AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. MODERATE INSTABILITY/STEEP LAPSE RATES

COMBINED WITH VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS

CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. WITH INITIAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS

EASTERN KS AND SOUTHEAST NEB THIS AFTERNOON...THE SEVERE THREAT

SHOULD DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO WESTERN IA/WESTERN MO BY EARLY EVENING.

[Paul Sherman]

Some nice Storms breaking out now in a Line through Eastern Nebraska, the Storms in Far SE Nebraska have a great chance of Tornading in the next 3 hours as they enter SW Iowa where the better Conditions are and around 1,750jkg of Cape and backed winds.

Further North and its Heavy Snow into the Dakotas

[NL]

Some nice Storms breaking out now in a Line through Eastern Nebraska, the Storms in Far SE Nebraska have a great chance of Tornading in the next 3 hours as they enter SW Iowa where the better Conditions are and around 1,750jkg of Cape and backed winds.

Further North and its Heavy Snow into the Dakotas

I know where I'd rather be..bugga the snow..!!! There's been some pretty impressive wall clouds on some of the live streams with a few producing funnel clouds but no touchdowns yet, as you say more chance later as they hit higher CAPE and favourable shear.

[NL]

1st Tornado warning issued.

237

WFUS53 KOAX 222136

TOROAX

NEC021-173-222200-

/O.NEW.KOAX.TO.W.0002.110322T2136Z-110322T2200Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA

436 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OMAHA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

CENTRAL BURT COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

SOUTHEASTERN THURSTON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 500 PM CDT

* AT 431 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS

STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR UEHLING...OR 37 MILES NORTHWEST OF OMAHA...

AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

CRAIG...DECATUR...MACY...SUMMIT LAKE STATE RECREATION AREA AND

OAKLAND.

THE WARNED AREA INCLUDES HIGHWAY 77 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS

136 AND 142.

[Gorky]

Tornado on Jeffrey Gonzales cam a second ago. Dusty whirl but looking good...

http://severestudios.com/livechase

[Paul Sherman]

Confirmed Tornado on the SPC Page - Sounded only brief

[Gorky]

Stream now seems to be down :/

[NL]

Tornado was seen on Jeff Gonzales's stream and yes it was only brief but looked like it was about to drop again then the stream went down.

[NL]

Quite a productive night it seems with 16 (preliminary figures) tornadoes reported all but one in the state of Iowa.

http://www.spc.noaa....orts/today.html

Todays set up has been upgraded to moderate risk for S/Central Ohio, E Kentucky and most of West Virginia mainly for the potential for very large hail, tornado risk of 5% as low level wind shear is forecast to be weak .

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Edited March 23, 2011 by NL

[Paul Sherman]

Hey Paul

Was just about to comment about the Moderate Risk being a "Hailer" but you have filled in the spaces quite nicely, also the Wind Risk looks like a Squall Line being the main Convective Mode.

Btw those 16 Tornadoes look like they will be "4" in the end with Multiple Reports of the Same Tornado at 1-2 Minute Intervals on the SPC Page.

http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/showthread.php?27074-3-22-11-REPORTS-NE-IA-MO

The Main Tornado "Backlit Cone" was near Creston (Iowa) and some nice pictures of this very thin Tornado ion the above thread

[NL]

G'mornin Paul, Yeah looking at the tracks it does look like multiple reports of the same tornado, so 4 is more likely. Some fantastic photos on Stormtrack.

Heres a couple of videos of the 'Creston' Tornado.

http://tv5.philippinespinoy.com/2011/03/23/3222011_creston_ia_tornado_footage/

http://www.casttv.com/video/ehyaxdu/creston-iowa-tornado-march-22-2011-video

Edited March 23, 2011 by NL

[Paul Sherman]

Great Vid Finds

After todays Hailers it looks like there could be some Severe down in Eastern Texas on Saturday and then the Lower Mississippi Valley and Eastern Seaboard for the Sunday . Looks like maybe a Strong Southern Jet could see some active weather early next week as well

Paul S

[NL]

Looks like the SPC are slowly putting the idea of any blocking to bed early next week Paul, still a bit uncertainty though with the euro model being the favorite at the moment showing some deep moisture coming in off the Gulf to interact with the forecasted shortwave to produce severe development in favourable terrain.

[Gorky]

Friday looks very good on the GFS and has done for a few days. Big bullseye around the OKC area with decent CAPE, nicely curved hodographs, a solid cap early on with every indication of it breaking by early evening. Unfortunately, it seems to be out on it's own as far as model support goes and the SPC must be disregarding it as they have a no severe storms forecast for friday. Seems a little unusual given how stoic the GFS has been on this evolution that there is little mention of it in the Day3 outlook, even if the NAM and Euro tend to be more reliable in this time frame. I'll be keeping my eye on it as if the GFS is correct this could sneak up on everyone. I'd normally be less than keen about trusting the GFS but it seems to have been remarkably good so far this year at picking up on big events way before other models. If the Euro evolution ends up favoured, that only pushes the next severe outbreak into early next week, and probably looks better in the long range than the GFs for virtual chasing

[vortex_liam]

That Paducah storm has'nt been warned quite surpriseing.

Fully warned now, Small tornado reported and large hail, this one could be a treat

[nsrobins]

Nasty cell in S PA now - tightening couplet on GR3 and pronounced hook signature. Some quite populated areas in it's path.

[NL]

I think the cell you refer to Neil has now been tornado warned.

467

WFUS51 KCTP 232109

TORCTP

PAC021-111-232145-

/O.NEW.KCTP.TO.W.0001.110323T2109Z-110323T2145Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA

509 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE PA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

SOUTHWESTERN CAMBRIA COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...

NORTHERN SOMERSET COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 545 PM EDT

* AT 508 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A

TORNADO. THE STORM CONTAINING THE TORNADO WAS NEAR LIGONIER...

MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...

BOSWELL AND WESTMONT AROUND 520 PM...

JEROME...ACOSTA AND DAVIDSVILLE AROUND 525 PM...

WINDBER...SCALP LEVEL AND GEISTOWN AROUND 530 PM...

CENTRAL CITY AND DUNLO AROUND 535 PM...

OGLETOWN AROUND 540 PM...

THIS WILL IMPACT THE PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 100

AND 129.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...THE JOHNSTOWN

EXPRESSWAY...ROUTE 30...ROUTE 219.

[vortex_liam]

moveing up to mcenzie now, gunna sit there while this next cell comes towards us

Moveing East towards holladay loveing that name, will move south as the storm nears, race against time to get there

[Gorky]

Major structural damage reported in Greensburg, PA from that warned storm

Listening to a local police radio and it appears to be in the Mohawk Drive, Fosterville Road and Navajo Drive area of town. sounds like mainly houses de-rooved at the moment. It's a pretty residential area unfortunately looking at google maps. Not heard any reports of injuries over the radio so far.

Picture of that tornado:

[Paul Sherman]

Why cant our Met Office have such a Detailed Briefing about Storms (Ha What Storms in the Uk I hear you Cry)

Everything below is set out soooo easily for all to understand about the Lone Supercell SE Of Lubbock.

The only Tornado Chance today (Currently 2%) Is If something forms along the Dryline far enough South of the Warm Front and rides underneath the Warm Front to Produce, That earlier Supercell did a Left Split and almost died a Death as it crossed the Warm Front and met with CINH.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0270

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0709 PM CDT THU MAR 24 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF W TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 250009Z - 250145Z

ONE SUPERCELL IS UNDERWAY IN SCURRY CO TEXAS...WITH ADDITIONAL

INITIATION POSSIBLE ALONG AND E OF THE DRYLINE IN THE NEXT 2-3 HRS.

A WW IS POSSIBLE IF ADDITIONAL CELLS BECOME ORGANIZED.

23Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A DRYLINE ACROSS FAR W TX...WITH CU NOTED

RUNNING FROM AROUND LBB S TO NEAR AND JUST SW OF MAF. MEANWHILE...A

NW-TO-SE ORIENTED WARM FRONT RUNS FROM S OF LBB TO THE NE OF MAF.

WHILE MANY CELLS HAVE STRUGGLED TO SURVIVE AS THEY MOVE OFF THE

DRYLINE...ONE CELL HAS INTENSIFIED AND HAS ALREADY PRODUCED SEVERE

HAIL NE OF MAF. HOWEVER...THIS CELL HAS MOVED N OF THE WARM FRONT

AND SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS WEAKER BUOYANCY AND

STRONGER SFC-BASED INHIBITION.

ADDITIONAL CELLS MAY FORM FURTHER W ON THE DRYLINE IN THE NEXT 1-2

HRS BEFORE DIABATIC COOLING STABILIZES THE BOUNDARY LAYER. VERY

STEEP LAPSE RATES.../AS NOTED ON THE 00Z MAF SOUNDING/...MU CAPE OF

1000-1500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS WILL SUPPORT A LARGE

HAIL THREAT WITH ANY CELL THAT BECOMES ESTABLISHED. LARGE T/TD

SPREADS AND DCAPE OF AROUND 1500 J/KG WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF

ISOLATED SEVERE WIND.

IF ADDITIONAL STORMS FORM FURTHER WEST ALONG THE DRYLINE AND HAVE

THE OPPORTUNITY TO STAY IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR AT LEAST AN HOUR OR

TWO...A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO

BE MONITORED.

[NL]

I was just about to say.. What storms..!! Although I think we in the NE of England have faired better than most in the last few years on frequency although not in severity...

Todays probability for tornadoes has increased warranting a 5% chance for SE Oklahoma, NE Texas and SW Arkansas.

Next week could turn out to be 'one to remember ' if an expected shortwave does materialize this will interact with 'seasonably high' moisture return from the Gulf could trigger a significant severe outbreak..

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/

[Paul Sherman]

Yep already put that in my Blog

Monday looks tasty and also other days next week look like a Severe Outbreak is possible. Maybe our First HIGH Risk of the 2011 Season

http://plainschaser.blogspot.com/

[NL]

Very nice summary on your blog Paul, all I can add to that is..." I WISH I WAS GOING ON THE 28th APRIL TOO...!!!" LoL (actually 28th March would be even better if the outbreak comes to fruition).

[nsrobins]

Not too sure about Monday - looks to be a depleting situation with a lot resting on getting destabilisation and breaking cap in the right place at the right time.

TONIGHT however is a developing situation, and a limited scan through the RUC this evening and I see a reasonable chance of a few big supercells in the I35/Red River corridor this evening. An opportunity exists for rapid destabilisation in the Gainesville area as a 'hole' in cap appears, releasing >2000K of CAPE according to RUC. May well have an hour or so of supercell development capable of a tornado or two. On the NWS building cam on OKC it's clear and hot - might see a meso discussion before long from SPC