Atlantic Lows - general discussion

[Zenarcher]

Indeed, Loftus appears to be the windiest place in the UK at present. It's certainly been a much wilder day than I was expecting.

I was only expecting 65mph gusts maybe 70mph as the highest gust and Met Office went for 70mph as well but 77mph never thought it would get that bad.

[grab my graupel]

Thought I'd get among the action to bring some exclusive pictures to Netweather

The top picture is my little boy :lol:

Edited April 1, 2011 by grab my graupel
Typo

[grab my graupel]

Latest Model output suggesting that it could turn rather wet and windy during next week as Low pressure takes charge once again. Looks as if there could be some significant gusts for some of us, particularly in the North. Will post some charts when I have the time, unless someone else would like to.

[grab my graupel]

Pressure gradients not quite as steep on the latest output, so wind gusts won't be as severe as was being suggested on previous runs.

Still quite windy at times, however, particularly for the far North as a 970mb Low Pressure system, which is centered to the South of Iceland, moves Eastwards. Turning much cooler, also, as winds change to a more Westerly - North Westerly direction.

[Zenarcher]

Yes charts suggest that things will get unsettled on Thursday until next Monday for Northern parts of the UK from then on looks like high pressure will return.

[grab my graupel]

Yes charts suggest that things will get unsettled on Thursday until next Monday for Northern parts of the UK from then on looks like high pressure will return.

Morning Sean

Yeah, this morning's GFS 00z was indicating that the unsettled theme would continue. However, the latest output is suggesting the Atlantic influence is losing its grip, which would be more in line with the ECM.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a continuation of the current pattern where we have High pressure to the South keeping things more settled there, while farther North and West stays unsettled.

Edited April 9, 2011 by grab my graupel
Just one 'O' needed to spell Losing

[grab my graupel]

Just been having a look through the model output, and if what the ECM is suggesting, which is a High pressure dominated pattern, verifies, this thread will become redundant.

[Zenarcher]

This winter has been 'less windy' than the previous winters. However I remember we have had about 2 or 3 storms this winter I remember one in November brought 70mph to 80mph to all parts of the UK.

Also the 3rd of February we had another storm NW forecasts where saying 70mph average wind speeds for that day with 85mph gusts for my area never have I have seen a forecast on here that said such high winds. The day before it downgraded it to 60mph to 75mph gusts still the highest I've ever seen. The 3rd of Feb storm brought 85mph gusts for me and 90mph for Cookie further North but he was away and missed it and Orkney, Shetland got over 100mph gusts.

Heres the chart for that day,

ECM and UKMO seem to agree with each other on the high pressure and the GFS is still showing that low in the North taking charge slightly but its slowly downgrading every run and will probably start to show what the ECM shows.

[grab my graupel]

This winter has been 'less windy' than the previous winters. However I remember we have had about 2 or 3 storms this winter I remember one in November brought 70mph to 80mph to all parts of the UK.

Also the 3rd of February we had another storm NW forecasts where saying 70mph average wind speeds for that day with 85mph gusts for my area never have I have seen a forecast on here that said such high winds. The day before it downgraded it to 60mph to 75mph gusts still the highest I've ever seen. The 3rd of Feb storm brought 85mph gusts for me and 90mph for Cookie further North but he was away and missed it and Orkney, Shetland got over 100mph gusts.

Heres the chart for that day,

I'd love to spend some time where you live to experience those sort of wind speeds; You're very lucky

[grab my graupel]

Turning fairly windy again, for the North West in particular, during Wednesday:

Then another Low pressure system to keep an eye on, which appears to be slightly more aggressive, for the following Monday. Once again it's the North West that will see the strongest gusts:

[Zenarcher]

Looking windy for here tomorrow NW is giving me 38mph to 45mph just a gale but Met Office is saying for my area 35mph to 63mph gusts. So I'm not to sure what to expect yet. The 06z run has completely changed it's thoughts on Monday.

[Zenarcher]

The 18z output shows very stormy weather for Western and Northern Scotland for this time of year. Is it just the 18z going over the top as usual with these lows?

[grab my graupel]

The 18z output shows very stormy weather for Western and Northern Scotland for this time of year. Is it just the 18z going over the top as usual with these lows?

Morning Sean

Indeed, things are beginning to look quite interesting for the North West. Today's GFS 00z for Monday is suggesting some rather steep pressure gradients on that Low:

[Zenarcher]

Yes the 00z run agrees with the 18z but downgrades the top wind speeds only by about 3mph and it also moved the worst of the storm over Northern Ireland and Southern Scotland look to get the worst of it now. Interesting to see the ECM for the first time in a few days to change what it thinks its got a low over us for then but not as low and as tight as the GFS I think ECM may be right since the GFS always overdoes these lows at longer range so maybe by 06z might see another downgrade.

[grab my graupel]

I think ECM may be right since the GFS always overdoes these lows at longer range so maybe by 06z might see another downgrade.

Yes, I agree with that. If the ECM were to verify, there would still be some signifcant winds but nothing like the GFS is suggesting. Perhaps it will end up being somewhere between the two?

[Zenarcher]

I agree with what you say at the moment that's the way it is looking maybe not as bad as the GFS makes it out to be. At the moment I am interested to see what the 12z ECM run says if it agrees with its 00z run then it may be on to something and the GFS would follow its path sooner or later.

Meanwhile the 06z has upgraded the wind speed by 5mph and has moved the worst of the storm back to where the 18z had it over Western Scotland moving its way North East.

[grab my graupel]

I agree with what you say at the moment that's the way it is looking maybe not as bad as the GFS makes it out to be. At the moment I am interested to see what the 12z ECM run says if it agrees with its 00z run then it may be on to something and the GFS would follow its path sooner or later.

Meanwhile the 06z has upgraded the wind speed by 5mph and has moved the worst of the storm back to where the 18z had it over Western Scotland moving its way North East.

It's looking quite potent on the GFS 12z, Sean. You may be in for quite a stormy period. As you say, it will be interesting to see what the ECM 12z makes of it.

[Zenarcher]

Yeah the 12z still agrees on a stormy outlook. The 12z pretty much agrees on the 06z run on the timing and location as well however it now looks like Western Scotland, Northern Ireland and Southern Scotland will be right in its path which is a change of course to the 06z it had it heading up over Northern Scotland.

12z GFS

Interesting thing the UKMO has just updated shows nothing like the GFS looks more similar to the ECM 00z run maybe the UKMO and ECM could be onto somemthing.

Edited May 19, 2011 by weathermaster

[The PIT]

GFS 12 oz looks pretty breezy for Sunday as well. UKMO 12 oz seems an odd one not going with either GFS or the ECM look at t120 and t144

[Zenarcher]

12z ECM goes back to what it has been saying before the 00z run it's showing low pressure in the same spot as the GFS so at the moment they both don't 100% agree but do hint where it will be and the timing. The UKMO is having none of it by just showing a 1000mb pressure over us thats +20mb more than what ECM is going for. So to sum things up not 100% sure on exactly what to expect yet.

Edited May 19, 2011 by weathermaster

[Zenarcher]

GFS 18z has completely changed a massive downgrade now and pressure charts look similar to what the UKMO says. Maybe now there both onto something. Only time will tell.

18z.

[grab my graupel]

This morning's GFS 00z looks quite nasty for Monday afternoon/evening

A fair bit of precipitation wrapped up in that low too. It's a shame it's not farther South as the areas that really need the rain appear to stay dry.

[Zenarcher]

Yeah the 00z run is a upgrade from the 18z. Southern Scotland and Northern England look to be right in it's path. ECM has downgraded but still shows rough weather and UKMO still saying nothing too severe so still haven't got them all fully agreeing on anything yet maybe by the end of today or at some time tomorrow they will all start to show something similar.

00z.

[grab my graupel]

Indeed, the UKMO looks rather tame in comparison. Looking further ahead, it seems as if High pressure may dominate for a while, although the ECM does show another low at around t216hrs as the jet becomes a little more amplified again.

[Zenarcher]

The GFS 06z run has downgraded it a bit and put it just a bit further south. The GFS is starting to feel more confident now when and where it's going to be but how windy is still looking unknown.

06z.

The Met Office have released a early weather warning for Monday and Tuesday.

There is a moderate risk of a period of very windy conditions crossing northern areas during Monday afternoon and night. Wind gusts reaching 60 mph are possible quite widely, including across parts of the Central Lowlands, with gusts 70 mph in more exposed areas.

For the area's below,