Atlantic Lows - general discussion

[grab my graupel]

Already very windy for some areas of the UK this morning, with parts of Wales experiencing the strongest gusts which are currently around 67mph

[Guest]

This storm reminds me of June 25th 1962 (not that I was there!), not in terms of evolution just in terms of an unseasonal storm.

[MP-R]

Well a truly Atlantic night last night. Increasing wind throughout the day yesterday but between 01.00 and 04.00, heavy rain and very strong winds with rain lashing against the windows in sheets - not a regular occurrence these days. Stuff all over the place this morning and it would appear the highest gust here last night was 47mph. Not bad going for down here!

[Guest]

Having had a quick look at the 00z GFS it does look as if Monday isn't the last of the unsettled weather, there is potential for more wet and windy weather right through the week. With flood watches and warnings already in place in some areas it is going to be a long week for anyone living close to a river

[Evening thunder]

Blimey, the contrast between the wet NW and the very dry SE couldn't be greater then!

This is certainly an interesting one to watch, I can't remember seeing a low quite this deep in late May or the summer before.

[Backtrack]

here is all three main models, that all agree with the path and intensity of this storm

ECM may be over-doing that low.

[Zenarcher]

ECM may be over-doing that low.

I would say it is overdoing that low since both the GFS and UKMO disagree with it's position further north and deepness only thing they agree on is the timing.

The UKMO 00z run agree's with its previous 3 runs it has the low in the same place the only thing it is changing is the pressure last night it was 977mb this morning 979mb I believe. The GFS 06z run has just released itself and it moves the low further down South exactly the same as the UKMO. So Northern Ireland and Southern Scotland still stand in it's path.

Comparing 00z with 06z.

00z slightly further North.

06z pushes it further South in line with the UKMO.

Met Office should be updating their weather warning soon I feel they will change the amber area slightly. Also tonight after all the models do their 12z runs I will make a wind map predicting tomorrow's wind speeds for all of the UK and Ireland.

[Zenarcher]

Here's the updated warning from them and they move the amber area down south.

A period of exceptionally windy weather is expected to cross the northern half of the country during Monday. Wind gusts of 60 mph are expected widely with gusts of 70 mph probable across parts of northern England, Northern Ireland and Scotland. Some very exposed areas may see gusts as high as 80 mph. Winds will start to ease from the west by evening.

[MP-R]

Blimey, the contrast between the wet NW and the very dry SE couldn't be greater then!

This is certainly an interesting one to watch, I can't remember seeing a low quite this deep in late May or the summer before.

May and June 2004, both months remembered for lengthy summery spells, both produced a monster low each that brought notable gales and unsettled weather:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2004/Rrea00120040504.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2004/Rrea00120040623.gif

[AderynCoch]

Reminds me a little of the 11th November 2010 system, which was also shifted further south as the time neared. This one shouldn't be quite as strong however.

I'm surprised I'm not in the yellow yet.

[grab my graupel]

Getting a little bit windy here with gust of around 49mph. Decided to go back inside as I wasn't too fond of the creaking noises that the trees were making.

[Liam J]

Really winding up off the west of Ireland now, rough times ahead. Stay safe all

http://www.sat24.com/en/eu

Meto

Heavy rain in the north will spread southwards and ease, with the southeast staying dry and bright until evening. Heavy showers and storm force winds are expected later in north

[Zenarcher]

It will be interesting to see what wind speeds this low pressure will bring. I think this windy weather may catch some people out tomorrow when they wake up and it's stormy outside.

I have just finished making my wind map for Monday it shows the predicted wind speeds at their worst for each area.

[Liam J]

It will be interesting to see what wind speeds this low pressure will bring. I think this windy weather may catch some people out tomorrow when they wake up and it's stormy outside.

I have just finished making my wind map for Monday it shows the predicted wind speeds at their worst for each area.

Nice map you have done there, I think this could be quite an event even by autumn/winter standards except its late May! My concern is with all the trees with leaves on and the huge amount of force and pressure they will have endure for quite a prolonged period. There is a high risk of injury from this and it must not be taken lightly.

Its Monday and it will be busy on roads and other travel networks.

Irish Meto say gusts could reach 140kph/90mph around exposed coasts in NI

[damianslaw]

Nice map you have done there, I think this could be quite an event even by autumn/winter standards except its late May! My concern is with all the trees with leaves on and the huge amount of force and pressure they will have endure for quite a prolonged period. There is a high risk of injury from this and it must not be taken lightly.

Its Monday and it will be busy on roads and other travel networks.

Irish Meto say gusts could reach 140kph/90mph around exposed coasts in NI

Yes the fact trees are in full leaf will bring an added hazard. Incidentally I noticed on my drive back from Wasdale over the passes this morning how much wind strewn debris there was on the sides of the roads courtesy of the strong winds yesterday. It looked like a scene from October rather than May.

The tracking of the low pressure is pivotal alongside how low heights become. It is a deepening low and we do have some preety cold air tucked in its rear which will cause a steep temp gradient and thus pressure gradient. If it tracks slightly further south than shown then with the added oomph of the Irish Sea, south west and west parts of Cumbria could be in for a proper battering.

It also looks a very wet morning - the fells could easily see a couple of inches with many lowland parts of the county seeing at least an inch so river levels will quickly rise and who knows there could be some localised flash flooding. After a long benign period of weather it does seem odd writing such a post at this time of year - the synoptics speak mid autumn rather than late spring.

[Snowyowl9]

Yes thats a good map so severe gales in May for the northern parts.

It will catch some out as trees/branches could fall on cars in full leaf at those speeds.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack0.gif

Could well make headline news.

[sundog]

The main thing i will remember this may for is how windy its been,at my location anywway. A windy and showery month here.

[Zenarcher]

18z has just rolled out.

At 6am to the West of Ireland the low moves in I would say that's about 60mph to 75mph even 80mph in that at this time.

By 9am it just starts moving in land to Northern Ireland and South Western Scotland just as people are heading to work may cause disruption.

At 12pm it moves further South into Northern Ireland and into Southern Scotland these charts may look like its easing down but it's not it's still really bad if someone has the NW Extra gusts charts they will show what I mean.

At 3pm it starts to move a bit further North so away from Northern Ireland and more into Southern Scotland again around the time when people start heading home.

6pm similar to what I said about the 12pm chart looks calmer for inland area's but it's not still very stormy and 6pm still people heading home etc.

After 6pm it will ease down. Stay safe everyone.

[Liam J]

Still looking very nasty on the 18z's rolling out, the NAE has shifted it slightly further south than the 12z and showing a 978hpa depression firing severe SW'ly gales into N England and Central/Southern Scotland then veering westerly and increasing slightly around late afternoon/evening with rush hour looking dangerous in the areas mentioned.

Look at the isobars over N England and S Scotland, severe gales penetrating inland, with land gales widespread. and also N Ireland will get hammered first.

[dave.p]

Calm before the storm at the moment, very still outside.

[ZONE 51]

Storm Warning - if you don't know yet there is a storm hitting northern areas -TODAY, this is making landfall now, through the day in many areas winds are to be very strong-even in the south, but in the north this storm is likely to cause damage to trees and building damage locally. trees are in full leaf and are of course much more likely to topple over. winds in excess of 70-80mph in places in the risk areas, please be prepared for this storm.wind warnings here - check your area - MetOffice warnings

NetWeather Alerts have been issued here

NORTH - damaging winds in many areas - stormy in places

SOUTH- very gusty conditions - gales in places

[grab my graupel]

It will be interesting to see what wind speeds this low pressure will bring. I think this windy weather may catch some people out tomorrow when they wake up and it's stormy outside.

I have just finished making my wind map for Monday it shows the predicted wind speeds at their worst for each area.

Great work, Sean. Thanks for taking the time to make that map.

The Low pressure system is steadily making inroads, with parts of Ireland and Wales already seeing gusts of around 63mph. Quite a nasty storm this, so stay safe everyone

[sn0wman]

Quite calm hear at the moment. The wind will hopefully start picking up soon.

[grab my graupel]

Nice Satellite image of the depression.

[Liam J]

Very wet and windy here atm, worse of the winds will arrive this afternoon here. Meto have gusts to 77mph predicted for my location later today.