Atlantic Lows - general discussion

[peterf]

as seen worse over the years.

[Paul]

There's now a dedicated thread for tomorrow in the severe weather area:

[Liam J]

as seen worse over the years.

Me aswell Peter, wind events have been lacking somewhat over the last few years so it's a bit of excitement for a change.

[johnholmes]

Issued at - 16 Oct 2011, 11:47

Valid from - 17 Oct 2011, 08:00

Valid to - 17 Oct 2011, 20:00

as you can see they had issued warnings a few hours before your comment?

If non of the forecasts such as Met Office or BBC bring out a warning for the areas that are going to be worst effected by this feature for tommorow then I will be utterly shocked at how bad there warning systems are currently!

[Liam J]

Curent analysis shows the Depression @ 978mb deepeing to the SW.

It will be very windy up the west side of the country later this evening and overnight.

Gales affecting Southern Ireland now as the Low moves closer to land.

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

http://www.sat24.com/en/eu

Edited October 23, 2011 by Liam J

[wimblettben]

Curent analysis shows the Depression @ 978mb deepeing to the SW.

It will be very windy up the west side of the country later this evening and overnight.

Gales affecting Southern Ireland now as the Low moves closer to land.

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

http://www.sat24.com/en/eu

Does this mean that it is tonight when the strongest winds will be because so far today it has just been breezy.

[Liam J]

Does this mean that it is tonight when the strongest winds will be because so far today it has just been breezy.

Depends where you live, S-SE'ly gales will be affecting areas to the west of the UK through the Irish Sea coastal areas.

[wimblettben]

Depends where you live, S-SE'ly gales will be affecting areas to the west of the UK through the Irish Sea coastal areas.

Well the wind is probably the strongest it's been so far today now at 5:10PM.

It is just starting to pick up at the moment and if you are wondering I live in Wiltshire in the Southwest so because I am inland then tonight it will probably be the usual speed of 25-30mph in gusts so nothing too exciting.

[knocker]

The GFS midday for 00z.

[Liam J]

pretty windy here on the coast now, gusting 40-50mph.

[Liam J]

Very windy over many areas tonight, I've recorded gusts up to 55mph from the SE which is very annoying because this direction is blowing right against my bedroom window and roaring like mad and I want to sleep! The roof is also creaking a fair bit as it's not used to SE'ly gales battering it on that side.

Some recent peak gusts

Cairngorm mountains 99mph

Great Dun Fell 66mph

St Bees Head 59mph

South Uist 58mph

Edited October 23, 2011 by Liam J

[Zenarcher]

South Uist has just recorded a 72mph gust.

[Zenarcher]

Hi all couldn't find the old topic but it had been going on for ages anyway so time to make a new fresh one.

So tomorrow we have a low just brushing past to the West of the UK.

It will get very windy further North where Faroe islands are as the image below shows,

Also looking ahead to the weekend it could get very windy on Saturday night into Sunday for Scotland, Northern England and Northern Ireland,

Later this evening I will issue my windy map for tomorrow.

[weatherobsuk]

Just seen the latest BBC forecast, they are going for a squall-line moving across the UK overnight tomorrow night into Friday dragging down northerlies behind it, aswell as convective SLW gusts ahead of the front.

[sn0wman]

I think the storm progged for Saturday Night holds a lot of potential, as the latest GFS shows 70-80mph gusts likely for some parts. Also I think there is potential for winds more than this, if it can interact with the jet stream more.

[Liam J]

If the GFS turns out near the mark then I expect wind gusts in excess of 80mph could occur, The updated forecast map on XC weather using the data from the 12z shows mean wind speeds of 60mph+ affecting Northern England northwards.

UKMO has a much turned down version so things aren't so clear ATM.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/15859162

Hurricane force winds Thursday afternoon just missing Scotland, BBC video of the feature

Edited November 23, 2011 by Liam J

[Cookie]

last night we hit 65 mph we attempted to play football in it got totally soaked

http://www.metoffice...ml#All~Hebrides

Shipping Forecast - Issued: 1725 UTC Wed 23 Nov

Wind West backing southeast 6 to gale 8 then veering southwest gale 8 to storm 10, perhaps violent storm 11 later. Sea State Rough or very rough, becoming high in west. Weather Rain. Visibility Moderate or good, occasionally poor later

Edited November 23, 2011 by cookie

[sn0wman]

This is from BECO - UK STATUS

VIOLENT STORM WARNING (VSW)

WEDS 23nd Nov 2011 18:42 GMT

Valid for Sat 26th November 2011 from 18:00 hrs until Sun 27th November 2011 18:00 hrs.

Due to a deep low building in the Atlantic with lots of energy there is a possible chance of Stormy conditions affecting the Irish Sea and coastal areas. Isle of Skye, the North and West mainland / Ilands's off Western Scotland. Northen Ireland and Isle of Man. Exposed coastal and hill areas will see the highest gusts. Mainland gusts will also be a factor as this system moves North East into the North Sea with similar gusts affecting Shetland and other near areas.

Wind speeds on average will be around 30 - 40 mph with gusts over 80 - 100 mph in the very exposed areas and at sea. Less for the mainland 70 - 80 mph.

Pressure is expected to drop to 979mb off Northen areas of Scotland. A short period of cold weather will follow after. This deep low will also bring snow / blizzards to the hills and mountins of Scotland.

Expect damage to property and life. Sea states will be DANGERIOUS.

Consult official weather, marine and travel services.

UPDATES MAYBE ADDED.

BE PREPARED.

The British Extratropical Cyclone Organisation.

[Liam J]

This is from BECO - UK STATUS

VIOLENT STORM WARNING (VSW)

WEDS 23nd Nov 2011 18:42 GMT

Valid for Sat 26th November 2011 from 18:00 hrs until Sun 27th November 2011 18:00 hrs.

Due to a deep low building in the Atlantic with lots of energy there is a possible chance of Stormy conditions affecting the Irish Sea and coastal areas. Isle of Skye, the North and West mainland / Ilands's off Western Scotland. Northen Ireland and Isle of Man. Exposed coastal and hill areas will see the highest gusts. Mainland gusts will also be a factor as this system moves North East into the North Sea with similar gusts affecting Shetland and other near areas.

Wind speeds on average will be around 30 - 40 mph with gusts over 80 - 100 mph in the very exposed areas and at sea. Less for the mainland 70 - 80 mph.

Pressure is expected to drop to 979mb off Northen areas of Scotland. A short period of cold weather will follow after. This deep low will also bring snow / blizzards to the hills and mountins of Scotland.

Expect damage to property and life. Sea states will be DANGERIOUS.

Consult official weather, marine and travel services.

UPDATES MAYBE ADDED.

BE PREPARED.

The British Extratropical Cyclone Organisation.

Only the GFS progs a severe depression over the UK with severe gales/storms affecting many northern and western areas, UKMO and ECM are no where near as windy and have the storm passing further to the north, BECO are obviously basing this solely on the GFS data.

Average winds 30-40mph gusting 80-100mph!!! LOL The average wind speeds would be much higher than that to be producing gusts as high as they state and closer to 60-70mph as a mean. The GFS 12z does show mean speeds of 50-60mph and over in places but I'm not convinced yet as the other two models are much less severe and we know the GFS likes to overdo these systems but time will tell.

Perhaps the GFS is firming up on the correct track but lets see how the 18z models the storm compared to the 12z, still 3 days to go so expect further adjustments.

Some very interesting shipping forecasts for tomorrow, Rockall for example

Rockall

Gale warnings - Issued: 1545 UTC Wed 23 Nov

Southeasterly severe gale force 9 expected soon, veering southwesterly and increasing violent storm force 11 later

Shipping Forecast - Issued: 1725 UTC Wed 23 Nov

Wind West 5 or 6 backing southeast 6 to gale 8 then veering southwest severe gale 9 to violent storm 11, perhaps hurricane force 12 later. Sea State Very rough or high becoming very high. Weather Rain. Visibility Moderate or good, occasionally poor later.

Edited November 23, 2011 by Liam J

[Aaron]

The BBC have described this as an 'explosive low', but the UK will avoid the worst of it.. well, not that surprising.

[weatherobsuk]

Isn't the consensus that the more deepening a feature is, say RACY or Barocyclonic Leaf, the tendency is for steering to trend further to the right due to pressure diffirentials within the system responding as a result. Or is the jet a crucial factor in the weekends steering mechanism given its trajectory NNEly currently.

[Zenarcher]

As promised I have made a wind map for tomorrow,

I'm interested to see what the Faroe Islands get tomorrow as the low gets very deep up there tomorrow night.

[Liam J]

GFS still confident with the track of the storm for Saturday night and Sunday morning, a slight upgrade in wind speeds on the 18z with still the potential for severe gales and damaging wind gusts 70-80mph. A lot to keep an eye on over the next few days.

Also very interesting Thursdays intense depression pasing between Scotland and the Faroes, bombing down to 945hpa bringing hurricane force 12 winds gusting to 100mph+ !! Shows how active the current synoptic set up is in the atmosphere, spawning an Atlantic wind storm with hurricane force winds with potentially another storm at the weekend, but not as severe.

Edited November 23, 2011 by Liam J

[Cookie]

really looking forward to tomorrow, Im on a day off tomorrow

hoping to get some extreme weather!

[ZONE 51]

This Storm just brushing so close, looks like a dartboard..

Anyway here is my gale risk chart for thursday using only GFS 18z data,