Atlantic Lows - general discussion

[Liam J]

The K5 buoy is progged for sustained wind speeds of 75mph for a time tomorrow, cat 1 hurricane strength!!

Western Isles experiencing gales or severe gales but nothing like what will be felt out at sea, that's probably a good thing as it would be very dangerous indeed.

[Cookie]

The K5 buoy is progged for sustained wind speeds of 75mph for a time tomorrow, cat 1 hurricane strength!!

Western Isles experiencing gales or severe gales but nothing like what will be felt out at sea, that's probably a good thing as it would be very dangerous indeed.

I wouldn't be surprised if we get gusts close to 90 mph tomorrow, we got 65 mph yesterday. I can see this winters record wind speed going, I can't see the 105.9 mph record going though!

[Zenarcher]

I wouldn't be surprised if we get gusts close to 90 mph tomorrow, we got 65 mph yesterday. I can see this winters record wind speed going, I can't see the 105.9 mph record going though!

You probably have a better chance at get higher winds than me.

It will be interesting to see what the K5 Buoy records hope it doesn't go offline. It will also be interesting to see what the Faroe islands get as the 18z has upgraded it even more.

[ZONE 51]

Taking a closer look at GFS 18z for Thursday here is my Gale Risk chart

[sn0wman]

06Z looks like a big upgrade in wind speeds, with the low really rapidly intesifying as it reaches Scotland - down to 964mb!

[Liam J]

I wouldn't be surprised if we get gusts close to 90 mph tomorrow, we got 65 mph yesterday. I can see this winters record wind speed going, I can't see the 105.9 mph record going though!

Abot OTT with that estimate cookie as the storm misses NW Scotland, however according to the GFS 00z output you may well get 80mph+ gusts on Saturday night and into Sunday morning. with average speeds of 60mph+ for the Western Isles.

[Coast]

BBC calling 100 mph at the centre of the low on their Radio 4 forecast this morning.

They are also expecting a pressure drop of 50 mb over 36 hours

[Cookie]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/marine/shipping_forecast.html#All~Hebrides

Gale warnings - Issued: 2149 UTC Wed 23 Nov

Southerly severe gale force 9 expected soon, increasing violent storm force 11 later

Shipping Forecast - Issued: 0505 UTC Thu 24 Nov

Wind Southwesterly gale 8 to storm 10, occasionally violent storm 11, perhaps hurricane force 12 later in northwest. Sea State High becoming very high, occasionally phenomenal later in north. Weather Rain or squally showers. Visibility Good, occasionally poor.

[Cookie]

netweather on the ball weather warning issued!

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=forecast%3Btype%3Dalerts%3Breg%3D1%3Bsess%3D

[GulberwickWeather]

Looking forward to tonight Richard, should be a good old blow! Possible Violent Storm 11

[nodrog]

EXTRATROPICAL 'XAVER' is going to produce over 90mph winds at sea or poss more. Pressure est 944mb by 1am tonight.

BECO have issued a CSW this morning... beco.org.uk

Going to be really squally and gusty... better than snow for me. (Sorry Snow lovers).

Ttfn.

[Cookie]

Looking forward to tonight Richard, should be a good old blow! Possible Violent Storm 11

yeah should be good winds already gusting 52 mph here

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/he/he_forecast_warnings.html

Issued at - 24 Nov 2011, 10:23

Valid from - 24 Nov 2011, 14:00

Valid to - 24 Nov 2011, 23:59

Gale force southerly winds will reach severe gale or even storm force on Thursday evening. Winds will become southwesterly early tonight with speeds then very slowly decreasing. Public should be aware that the strong winds may cause travel disruption. Also, high tides could combine with the strong winds to give large breakers, overtopping sea fronts and causeways bringing risk of localised flooding to low lying coastal areas.

[nodrog]

Glad this post is on.

British Extratropical Cyclone Org have put a CSW out, (as mentioned in other topic)... beco.org.uk

METO on a yellow for 80mph for Shetland.

100mph winds out at sea.

[weatherobsuk]

The National Hurricane Center had this same area of RACY down as 10% chance of development 3 days ago on the NHC forecast, moving out from the Bermuda region this is where I suspect BECO are getting the 'extratropical' status from. So not officially classified as such except by this agency, it has come from tropical influences southwestwards.

[johnholmes]

http://www.metoffice...ml#All~Hebrides

not sure I ever remember seeing a UK sea state forecast with the word 'phenomenal'

Edited November 24, 2011 by johnholmes

[Cookie]

not sure I ever remember seeing a UK sea state forecast with the word 'phenomenal'

when you say that I know to pay attention, usally south east Iceland rockall that get phenomenal!

[johnholmes]

when you say that I know to pay attention, usally south east Iceland rockall that get phenomenal!

I've just posted in the model thread-such a threatening low, a so called weather forum and there is no mention-sad but there we are.

I'm about to go and dig out what I can on this storm, from now its a case of tracking it, watching pressure falls, sat picss, ship reports, to see how it is progressing; is it deeper, nearer to the UK, or not than predicted.

Stay safe up there you folk.

Edited November 24, 2011 by johnholmes

[weatherobsuk]

Kyuss/Klaus was the last time I recall. And we all remember what happened in both of those windstorms, luckily the worst of the winds looks to remain out between Scotland and Iceland this time. But the Faeroes & coastal Norway are in for a rough ride.

[Cookie]

I've just posed in the model thread-such a threatening low, a so called weather forum and there is no mention-sad but there we are.

I'm about to go and dig out what I can on this storm, from now its a case of tracking it, watching pressure falls, sat picss, ship reports, to see how it is progressing; is it deeper, nearer to the UK, or not than predicted.

Stay safe up there you folk.

thank you, im supposed to be doing an essay at the moment but keep getting distracted, if you find out anything interesting please update us thanks!

[Coast]

Buoy 62105, already reporting up to 38 kts:

[johnholmes]

Having a quick scout round

buoy 62095 at approx 53N 16W the storm is moving away with pressure rising 4.9mb in the past 3 hours.

buoy 64045 approx 59N 11.5W and its in line with it probably heading at it-currently pressure falling at 11.9mb in past 3 hours.

Winds over western Ireland are gusting 60+knots and expect this before long in exposed areas of Western Isles, mostly southerly, gusts could top 80mph in the more exposed places. A similar story for the Northern Isles this evening and overnight for a time. I doubt it will get higher than 70mph for most though, but isolated 80mph in exposed parts of both areas.

The weekend MIGHT see a repeat.

One of the things causing this, indeed the main cause, is the interaction between very cold air aloft in the nw of the Atlantic meeting with very warm upper air from the southern parts of the north Atlantic. This is creating jet streaks within the jet stream and lows forming at the right entrance to the jet are ending up at the left exit and hence deepening rapidly.

Edited November 24, 2011 by johnholmes

[weatherobsuk]

Current synoptics with "Berit" responding well to its environment

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/surface_pressure.html

[Cookie]

ness top of lewis has 62 mph http://www.eoropaidh.co.uk/

just down the road from me 48 mph http://www.hebwx.co.uk/wxlive.php

46 mph from the met office one based at the airport.

[Coast]

[Zenarcher]

Currently gusting to 50mph. I'm expecting the worse between 2pm and 4pm today for me.

Weather station in Faroe island is currently recording 35mph wind speed. Should increase a lot later.