April CET

[sebastiaan1973]

Also in the Netherlands some exciting 'warm' times. Till 28th of april the temperature in De Bilt is 12.9c, which is an amazing 4.7c too warm. The record is 13.1c. We need 14.9c for the last two days, which is almost certain.

[J10]

If April finishes on 11.8C, then a 12.2C May would be required for 2011 to record the warmest spring in the CET series. That 12.2C figure isnt even 1C above the 1971-2000 average, so its very possible.

If the final outcome is in the range 11.8 to 12.4c, then Craig Evans has won this month, which in itself shows how warm it has been.

[TonyH]

Indeed synoptics or otherwise we surely would never have believed it possible.

[Weather-history]

Calendar wise we have had an April but climatically speaking have we had an April?

Have we gone straight from March into May?

In 1986, the CET for that April was that of a typical March of the time, so could 1986 be seen as the year with two Marches and no April.

Could 2011, be the year with two Mays and no April? Infact February was more like a March so it could be the year with two Marches and two Mays and no February nor April.

A year like 1916 would be a year with a January nearer to an April, a March nearer to a January and a June nearer to a May

Edited April 29, 2011 by Mr_Data

[Milhouse]

Indeed synoptics or otherwise we surely would never have believed it possible.

I think at the start of the month we were 90% sure that it would be an above average month, hence all the above average predictions. But the extent of the warmth has surpassed everyones expectations.

Edited April 29, 2011 by Milhouse

[North-Easterly Blast]

Calendar wise we have had an April but climatically speaking have we had an April?

Have we gone straight from March into May?

In 1986, the CET for that April was that of a typical March of the time, so could 1986 be seen as the year with two Marches and no April.

Could 2011, be the year with two Mays and no April? Infact February was more like a March so it could be the year with two Marches and two Mays and no February nor April.

A year like 1916 would be a year with a January nearer to an April, a March nearer to a January and a June nearer to a May

You are spot on. However the extent of the cold pre Xmas would be more typical of a notable month's severe spell in Jan / Feb let alone ever heard of in late Nov / early Dec. So, it seems like we have gone from a notable early winter to a February like a typical March of today's standards and then seen two Marches then a May and no April. Although on top of this, climatically speaking, have we even had a winter season in many of the years in the 1990s and 2000s? In many of the last 24 years it could be said that we have had three Novembers followed by two Marches or even in some years a March and two Aprils. The CET in many Febs of the 1990s and 2000s was more typical of an average March, and the CET in some Januarys was more typical of an average March or November. A classic is 2006-07. That winter / spring really had three Novembers, no Dec, Jan or Feb, then two Marches then two Mays. Something like 2008 really had three Marches before the April. 1997-98 was like having two Novembers, a March and three Aprils.

You could also say that 1996 had two Aprils then moved straight from April to June, with no May. The CET for May 1996 was far closer to an average April than a May.

This April just confirms finally how pear shaped the winter of 2010-11 was. In future it can be summed up as being THE MOST PEAR SHAPED WINTER EVER. A pear shaped winter is one that has a good cold spell early on that deteriorates into nothing. I can not find anything approaching the extremity of how winter 2010-11 had a notable early freeze up that deteriorated into nothing. It is plainly summeed up as the winter that had the most notable early freeze up on record that deteriorated by Dec 27th into what was certainly nothing special with the February in particular being very dissappointingly mild, and on top of that this led into the warmest April on record.

Edited April 29, 2011 by North-Easterly Blast

[feb1991blizzard]

Wow,

Its amazing how easily a recent maximum record (2007) is breached; landing at circa 11.7 will destroy the previous high of 11.2 (from the last 360years) Shameful Shameful global warming(!)

Im a guy that loves a snowy and cold winter, im a guy whom actively enjoyed the Decemeber Negative CET recording - genuinely the greatest CET month of burgeoning life.

(But the way) This April CET trounces and decimates the April CET record from 2007 with so much ease its unreal.

It is unprecidented evidence of a heating up of our climate...I choose not global nor warming in my assumption.

The non believers of this increase in temperatures around the globe are doing their environment an injustice; its happening;

I dont acutally think its as simple as CO2 and gases and ozone layer, but that aside - its happening - it really really is happening....

10 years ago i didnt believe,

5 years ago i needed persuading,

Today; after all of the stats ive seen; I would say (and I hate to say it) anyone who doubts the warming of the globe is as inaccurate as one whom believes in the ''holocaust denial''.

Controversial statement, but justified,

In summary

I dont think the scientists have got it all correct, I dont think they have understood how global warming works, and i think its much more complex than what we know, BUT look at the facts, look at the stats and understand.; its not changing, in fact - Its changed.

I dont doubt that we have had warmer weather over the last 20 years but it is a fact that we have spells like this throughout planet earths existance. Also why is it always just a 'blip' when we have an exceptionally cold month, rather than evidence of cooling but when we have a hot month it is always global warming.

Edited April 29, 2011 by feb1991blizzard

[Weather-history]

Driest March-April periods for England and Wales

1938: 23.6mm

1893: 25.7mm

1785: 28.9mm

2011 ~ 32mm up to 27th April

1840: 34.0mm

1854: 35.1mm

1852: 37.2mm

[Terminal Moraine]

Unusually we're actually slightly below the England/Wales average rainfall for the last two months.

March had 18.3 mm and so far April is on 10.9mm.

It now looks very likely that April will be the driest on record here, beating 11.4 mm in 1984, and will also be the third driest month of any in the last 35 years: only Sept' 1986 with 8.2 mm and August 1995 with 10.7mm have recorded less.

Also there have been only 2 rain days ( 0.2 mm or more ), the lowest number for any month since I began keeping records in 1963.

[Weather-history]

Warmest March-April combinations

2007: 9.2

1961: 9.1

1957: 9.05

A CET of 11.8C or greater and it will be the warmest March-April combination on record.

Warmest February-April periods

1779: 8.4

1945: 8.37

1961: 8.37

A CET of 12.2 or greater is needed for the warmest February-April period on record.

Edited April 30, 2011 by Mr_Data

[reef]

Hadley is on 11.9C to the 29th. Yesterday came in at 12.4C.

A 13.7C today would see us rise to 12.0C on tomorrow's update and 10.1C or lower would be required to drop to 11.8C.

Either way we're going to break the record by some way - provisonally at least.

[Interitus]

This April just confirms finally how pear shaped the winter of 2010-11 was. In future it can be summed up as being THE MOST PEAR SHAPED WINTER EVER. A pear shaped winter is one that has a good cold spell early on that deteriorates into nothing. I can not find anything approaching the extremity of how winter 2010-11 had a notable early freeze up that deteriorated into nothing. It is plainly summeed up as the winter that had the most notable early freeze up on record that deteriorated by Dec 27th into what was certainly nothing special with the February in particular being very dissappointingly mild, and on top of that this led into the warmest April on record.

It's over, let go...move on.

[Kentish Kiwi]

It's over, let go...move on.

Completely agree. North-Easterly Blast's posts about his so-called 'pear shaped winter' are some of the most repetitive, irritating and tiresome I have experienced on this forum. Please, on behalf of I am sure many posters and readers on Netweather, just stop and let it go.

On another note, does anyone know if an upward or a downward adjustment is more likely at the end of the month?

Edited April 30, 2011 by Kentish Kiwi

[TonyH]

Upward for a change would be quite fitting for this truly remarkable month.

[Scorcher]

I wonder if we could get 13.7C today and end on 12C for the month. Minima were kept up in most parts overnight, probably due to the strong wind. Temperatures across the CET zone today are 18-21C for the most part so will be interesting to see what the final figure is.

[reef]

Upward for a change would be quite fitting for this truly remarkable month.

April 2007 had a downward revision of just 0.14C. Even if this were to be matched, its pretty likely we'd still finish on at least 11.8C - so a whole 0.6C higher than 2007 which itself was 0.6C higher than the previous record!

Today's min is down as 8.3C, so a mean maxima today of 19.1C would see us reach the 13.7C required for the month to finish on 12.0C provisionally.

[Kentish Kiwi]

Today's min is down as 8.3C, so a mean maxima today of 19.1C would see us reach the 13.7C required for the month to finish on 12.0C provisionally.

Is that likely to happen?

[sebastiaan1973]

2011 at De Bilt was equally warm as the record april of 2011, 13.1c

[Weather-history]

Well April 2011 is listed as 11.8C in the rankings.

[Snowyowl9]

April 2007 only gave 1 day of rain but it was just under 1/2 inch this april is the driest on record.

Springs use to be so much colder/snowier and wetter on average,only occasionally dry springs weather patterns have definately changed,see what the summer holds

Spain and portugal are getting the lows instead and downbursts of freak weather hail just recently.

[Optimus Prime]

And so just under 4.0 c above normal.

[reef]

Interesting, yesterday came in at exactly the 13.7C required to reach 12.0C (actually 11.96C) provisonally. The adjusted figures then came in 0.14C lower, just like April 2007 did.

So thats 0.6C above the 2007 record, which itself was 0.6C above the previous one. Quite an incredible month!

[damianslaw]

As I expected we have ended up just below 12 degrees thanks to downward corrections. It has been an exceptional month in the vein of Dec 2010. If you want the warmest potential synoptics you can get in April well we have just had them. At no stage have we seen polar, arctic maritime air or indeed polar continental air. Tropical continental and maritime air has dominated with an emphasis more on tropical continental hence the sustained very warm maxima for the time of year. Ironically had we seen a bit more tropical maritime air we could have recorded an even higher CET thanks to slightly milder nights though maxima would have been tempered so perhaps not..

April 2011 has resembled what I would call a good May. We are being spoilt with weeks of very dry weather this year. Feb and March were both very dry and very benign indeed. The atlantic has been on holiday since early dec 2009, only make brief visits to the country - how long will it continue to remain inactive?

[Scorcher]

I think I would argue it's been an even more exceptional month than December 2010- to beat the previous record (2007)by 0.6C is astonishing. It's by far the warmest April on record and the gap between the first and the third place is absolutely incredible. I believe I'm right in saying the gap between April 1865 (now third warmest) and April 2011 is 1.2C. In my opinion we have just witnessed one of the great months of our lifetimes in terms of warmth.

[Milhouse]

Such a historic month that will be remembered for many years to come. Even more remarkable is that May looks to be carrying on in the same way too, which of course didnt happen in 2007.