Wales - Regional Weather Discussion

[Marcus_surfer]

What a horrible day with rain and mist sweeping in, gusts of 60mph on Mumbles, lucky we missed the worst, scotland looks very nasty indeed.

[soupsurfer7]

Heavy hail again here tonight, and a sudden drop in temperature.

[Snowmadsam]

ECM looks interesting tonight:

[J10]

Is it me or does reading the models threads make no difference what so ever. It's convincing me more and more that no-one can predict anything beyond 7 days and to be accurate over 48hrs is a push. So many people are convinced that they now what is going to happen based on their fav model or Statospheric warming or whatever, and so many people are contradicting each other based on the same models etc.

Let's face it guys and gals predicting winter weather in the UK is a stab in the dark most of the time.

Most of the talk has gone from "mild and boring winter" to "mega storms" up until Xmas, plus those that recokn we'll have deep prolonged cold and snow for weeks on end.

It's quiet exhusting. Maybe i should ban myself from looking at Models threads.

I am still however tentatively hoping Mark Vogan is correct about the cold. His batting average has been pretty good up until now.

I partly agree with the above, since the Euro High went and we lost our stable conditions, forecast form all the models has not been that accurate, before this particular phase of Polar Maritime winds and Cold zonality set in, there was little support from it from the models.

However there are some people who do have a great deal of knowledge when it comes to long term patterns, of whihc I think Glacier Point is probably the best, he makes detailed seasonal forecasts, including for this winter.He also backs up his forecasts so if it goes wrong as last summers did famously, at least it is possible to understand which parts of the forecast did not turn out as expected.

However there is more technical thread where he and other knowledgeable folk tend to post, without the worst of the MOD thread.

[swales]

Hey can anyone help...

The ECM model on NW and Meteociel shows charts for every 24 hour period. Is there a way/place to view the model per 3 hours like the GFS? or anything less than 24 hours?

Thanks

[TonyH]

No I believe that ECM is 24 hours only.

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

No I believe that ECM is 24 hours only.

Indeed, I havent come across anything less than 24hrs between each fame for the ECM.

Edit: Including link to Icelandic Met Office, shows ECM precipitation, wind and upper air temps:

http://en.vedur.is/w...ntic/#type=prec

So just a little more detail on that link really.

Actually that link does show the ECM in steps of Less than 24hrs :lol:

Edited December 8, 2011 by SnowStorm(Jamie)

[swales]

Thank you for your replies guys.

[J10]

There are some other sources of ECM forecast which provide more info, including

http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/atlantic/#teg=temp&type=temp (Icelandic weather site)

and

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?zoom=4&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=1&mm.mdl=GFS&mm.type=SURPRE&mm.hour=0&mm.opa=100&mm.clk=0&hur=0&fire=0&tor=0&ndfd=0&pix=0&dir=0&ads=0&tfk=0&fodors=0&ski=0&ls=0&rad2=0

Select ECMWF from the Model Data on the right hand side.

Neither of these are perfect, and they can be confusing when you get used to a particular format of charts.

Generally I don't tend to use them for that reason.

[swales]

There are some other sources of ECM forecast which provide more info, including

http://en.vedur.is/w...=temp&type=temp (Icelandic weather site)

and

http://www.wundergro...i=0&ls=0&rad2=0

Select ECMWF from the Model Data on the right hand side.

Neither of these are perfect, and they can be confusing when you get used to a particular format of charts.

Generally I don't tend to use them for that reason.

Cheers, and yeah can be confusing

[TonyH]

Quite like the Icelandic one, how come we can't get ECM every 6 hours I wonder?

[swales]

Quite like the Icelandic one, how come we can't get ECM every 6 hours I wonder?

It's probably possible but I guess not many websites use the data because it may cost more to have it per 6 hours? But hey, I don't know. Just guessing.

Regards

Edited December 8, 2011 by shaunwales

[Gorath]

Bit slow here in the Wales thread, huh? Meanwhile, England seems to have sprouted a new thread for each and every populated area

[mikeocarroll]

Just been a few hail showers this morning, and some rain too. The hail settled this morning when the dewpoint was sub-zero. Still has been interesting that there have been a lot of showers which goes to show that if the upper conditions were right then a N-Westerly could bring some decent snow here, just the wrong side of marginal at the moment. A "Cardigan Bay streamer" seems to set up in WNW / straight W flow that brings a series of showers over mid-Wales.

Temp 4.5c currently, dp 0.6c.

[andymusic]

next event will be monday/tuesdays storm - batten down the hatches once more - and keep an eye on a re-occuring little low shooting off across the south of the uk towards the end of next week - could be very interesting for a storm and some colder/wintry weather

[Gorath]

Hmm, just popped to town for lunch, and it seems that some of Snowdonia's peaks are now whiter than they have been in the last month. There's still low cloud obscuring most of them, but it looks as though there is some snow at high(ish) altitudes here.

I was quite surprised, most of last weekend's snow had melted away.

[andy_leics22]

Bit slow here in the Wales thread, huh? Meanwhile, England seems to have sprouted a new thread for each and every populated area

Naturally :winky: You welshys always complain that you get ignored by the BBC and other British organisations so Net Weather has decided to leave you out in the cold too :w00t:

[Gorath]

Naturally :winky: You welshys always complain that you get ignored by the BBC and other British organisations so Net Weather has decided to leave you out in the cold too :w00t:

Hehe!

I reckon we actually enjoy being ignored, and left to our own little world. We're just not meant to admit that to "outsiders" :winky:

Edited December 9, 2011 by Gorath

[Scarlet_Snow]

Bit slow here in the Wales thread, huh? Meanwhile, England seems to have sprouted a new thread for each and every populated area

Dont worry - any chance of proper snow here and this place will erupt

[DeepSnow]

Seen meto have a watch for next monday/tuesday for the wind for wales!

[joo]

Hi everyone again.

My car got some wind damage yesterday. I'd just parked it in my garage to keep it safe and the wind blew a door that was leaning against the wall (and the smaller bits of wood leaning against it) onto my car . Doh.

I got my car back out of the garage with help from hubby to make sure it got out safe and this morning it was covered with frost :diablo:

The weather doesn't like me this week

[J10]

Latest Ski Blog now out, with synoptic charts for the next 7 days.

[Gorath]

What's the Alps forecast got to do with regional weather for Wales?

[swales]

What's the Alps forecast got to do with regional weather for Wales?

Maybe someone from Wales is interested? I don't see any harm in posting it...

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

The ski blog is very useful for understanding what the broadscale synoptic situation will be, reading this allong with model output GFS, UKMO etc.. it is then possible to fine tune what the weather will be like for UK/Wales. Good source for learning to.