Wales - Regional Weather Discussion

[swales]

Yes, but what does soupsurfer mean by it? It's a very ambiguous term, it seems, so I'm interested in where he was referring to.

We'll have to wait for his answer..

But... perhaps he meant:

Mid Wales uplands known in the Welsh language as the Elenydd (which extend from Pumlumon to Mynydd Mallaen).

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Oh and just in case anyone is interested then here is the MetO chief forecaster talking about this weeks weather -

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Edited December 12, 2011 by shaunwales

[TonyH]

We'll have to wait for his answer..

But... perhaps he meant:

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I think he most likely did.

Edited December 12, 2011 by TonyH

[DeepSnow]

Anyone think there is a chance that any snow showers are possible for southern wales? Seems people are talking about it being wintery next weekend also!?

[soupsurfer7]

Sorry guys, I know it can be quite a wishy-washy term and I didn't mean to cause any confusion. What I meant by Cambrian Mountains was the usual definition that others have provided and by Wikipedia. The general very high upland area in mid Wales south of Machynlleth, east of Tregaron, west of Rhayader and north of Llanwrtyd Wells, as this picture illustrates :

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

Anyone think there is a chance that any snow showers are possible for southern wales? Seems people are talking about it being wintery next weekend also!?

I would say the potential is there for snow in south Wales Tuesday/Wednesday, away from coastal areas where i think the flow off the sea will raise the dewpoints sufficiently enough for the precipitation to be mostly of rain/hail & some sleet.

We will have sub 528DAM air over Wales with upper air temperatures of -5/-4C with a strong westerly/wsw flow:

http://expert-images...121315_1212.gif

One thing i have noticed on the NAE is a line of showers running it to W/NW wales tomorrow evening with another line of showers clipping Swansea and running into the Vale of Glamorgan, Neath, Bridgend and Rhondda Cynon Taff:

http://expert-images...121318_1212.gif

It may be a case that the NAE is being bullish with its snow distribution across Wales, but we will see.

[Scarlet_Snow]

There's something which I dont understand, hope someone can explain for me.....The NAE rainfall/snowfall charts show snow out at sea so with that obviously being at sea level, why is it unlikely for us to have snow on land at sea level? :blink:

[welshwizard]

to be honest guys i myself dont think we will see a great deal of snow quite yet but mountain tops may have a covering,but i am worried about the wind that may hit us tonight and then even worse on thurs night and friday. there was talk of winds up as high as 100 mph or even higher. that is a crazy event isnt it,fingers crossed it misses the uk all togther or we just get the tail end.

[mikeocarroll]

Anyone think there is a chance that any snow showers are possible for southern wales? Seems people are talking about it being wintery next weekend also!?

I think the weekend is looking cold enough for snow at all levels across Wales, with the caveats that 1) it's 4-5 days away and a lot can change; and 2) whether any given location gets snow would depend on the precipitation - at the moment it looks like showers could be quite widespread on Friday/Saturday, but precipitation is very hard to forecast especially at that range.

Re: Tues-Thurs snow I'm sceptical but would like to be surprised.

[Cymro]

Long time no post, however with this weeks massive weather, i/e alot of it going on I thought I may as well post, personally I fail to see much snow tomorrow but with such intense rainfall regardless of upper air temps being at -4 or below, wintriness, slush, rain sleet, snow is possibly anywhere, accumulating snow? on the coast? Maybe temporary but highly unlikely even on ground above 100m (i.e most of Wales) I fail to see such a disruptive snow event, especially with the flow coming off the irish sea/celtic sea. What is of note however is the massive cold pool in the Atlantic to our west, this could have an impact, time shall tell.

[keithlucky]

There's something which I dont understand, hope someone can explain for me.....The NAE rainfall/snowfall charts show snow out at sea so with that obviously being at sea level, why is it unlikely for us to have snow on land at sea level? :blink:

Because of the sea temperatures of about 12c causes the snow to turn back to rain this time of year NAE charts are just a guide ,but tomorrow in the heavier showers we should see snow especially tomorrow night.

[Gorath]

Sorry guys, I know it can be quite a wishy-washy term and I didn't mean to cause any confusion.

That's fine, no confusion caused, it's just that I've heard the term "cambrian" applied to almost anywhere in Wales, I just wanted to know which "cambrian" area you were on about!

Snow on those hills may be quite likely. They generally seem to have a drier, colder atmopshere than in Snowdonia (Which, incidentally, I have also heard referred to as part of the Cambrians), which are generally fantastic rain-makers.

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

There's something which I dont understand, hope someone can explain for me.....The NAE rainfall/snowfall charts show snow out at sea so with that obviously being at sea level, why is it unlikely for us to have snow on land at sea level? :blink:

Thats a good question. Im not entirely sure but i think it might have something to do with the resolution of the model. The NAE is a high resolution model so there are more grid points & i believe they are closer together taking in a higher amount of observational data. The end result is a more accurate picture of the atmosphere so the NAE is generally (not always) better at modelling convection and sea breazes for example than those models with a lower resolution (less grid points &further apart).

I guess as you go further away from the coastal areas of the UK there is less observational data there and thus the model resolution drops somewhat. Perhaps explaning why we see snow at sea level out there.

I may be wrong though im not entirely sure

Some more information on Met Office models can be found here:http://www.metoffice...her-forecasting

[andymusic]

to be honest guys i myself dont think we will see a great deal of snow quite yet but mountain tops may have a covering,but i am worried about the wind that may hit us tonight and then even worse on thurs night and friday. there was talk of winds up as high as 100 mph or even higher. that is a crazy event isnt it,fingers crossed it misses the uk all togther or we just get the tail end.

we should see something out of the next few days I reckon - heights un all!

[Jayfromcardiff]

Hi all, hope everyone's alright, can anyone tell me if it will snow in Cardiff tomorrow lol?

[Daniel Miller]

Hi all, hope everyone's alright, can anyone tell me if it will snow in Cardiff tomorrow lol?

I highly doubt it. It doesn't look likely for snow in many places. The further North and more elevated you are, the better. You might see some flakes but mixed in with rain, it makes it pointless. No fear though! The BEST of the weather is yet to come! (Mid January/February) They are actually the better times for snow as the sun is a lot weaker then due to it being mid winter (I think >.<)

[andymusic]

Hi all, hope everyone's alright, can anyone tell me if it will snow in Cardiff tomorrow lol?

nae map is showing it may but temps may not be quite right for snow in Cardiff just yet!

[Scarlet_Snow]

Thats a good question. Im not entirely sure but i think it might have something to do with the resolution of the model. The NAE is a high resolution model so there are more grid points & i believe they are closer together taking in a higher amount of observational data. The end result is a more accurate picture of the atmosphere so the NAE is generally (not always) better at modelling convection and sea breazes for example than those models with a lower resolution (less grid points &further apart).

I guess as you go further away from the coastal areas of the UK there is less observational data there and thus the model resolution drops somewhat. Perhaps explaning why we see snow at sea level out there.

I may be wrong though im not entirely sure

Some more information on Met Office models can be found here:http://www.metoffice...her-forecasting

Cheers Jamie, useful link also for understanding the model resolutions

[mikeocarroll]

Hi all, hope everyone's alright, can anyone tell me if it will snow in Cardiff tomorrow lol?

It's possible that there will be some wet snow or at least some sleetiness in heavy showers. More likely just rain though. I would say about 50% likely there will be sleetiness, 20% snow proper and virtually no chance of snow lying.

The BEST of the weather is yet to come! (Mid January/February) They are actually the better times for snow as the sun is a lot weaker then due to it being mid winter (I think >.<)

The sun is at its weakest at the end of December. However there is a lag effect on sea surface temperatures which are generally cooler in Jan & Feb, which helps to make those months colder on average than December.

[Herefordweather]

HELLO WALES!

It's that time of year where I am unsure where to post, Wales or the Midlands? Ahh, both!

Hoping for a few flakes here tomorrow at least. No, not dandruff!

[TonyH]

Horrendous evening here, strong southerly gusting to gale force with heavy driving rain since mid afternoon, over 11mm already from this.

At least it's turning mild

[mikeocarroll]

Horrendous evening here, strong southerly gusting to gale force with heavy driving rain since mid afternoon, over 11mm already from this.

At least it's turning mild

It's the 15th consecutive rain day here and no sign of it stopping any time soon - is there such a thing as a dry day in Wales?

[TonyH]

Very marginal for lowland snow tomorrow and Wednesday, uppers are above -5c but the 'thicknesses' are sufficient.

Last week had lower uppers and it was barely cold at the surface, so as others have said probably just a few sleety flakes for below 150 masl. If the little low crosses Wales Wednesday evening as GFS suggests then evaporative cooling could well occur given heavy rain and it being during the evening. Might just about manage covering here at 120m if those ingredients fall in to place.

[Gorath]

It is rather perplexing that the MetO have a weather warning for snow covering Wales. As dubious as I am, I can;t help but think... what do they know that we don't?

[Snowmadsam]

Looking good for tomorrow (presumably)

[jo200199]

Evening all, just looking for some weather reports in Wales right now. Been following the atlantic storm thread, but as I am on my phone, I am unable to look at charts etc and peoples location doesn't show up. Could anyone be so kind as to give me a rough idea of what's in store for S.Wales (crumlin-NP11 3DL) tonight and tomorrow please? Had a "mini tornado" through here in the summer, which caused a lot of damage in seconds. I like many others on here, love a good old gale/storm, providing everyone is safe of course. I would just like to give my family and friends the 'heads-up'. I did ask in the atlantic storm thread last night, but am still waiting for a reply to my post :-( If anyone could help me out, I'd be truly greatful :-D Happy weather watching all x