Wales - Regional Weather Discussion

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

Indeed and that's why this low needs looking at. As much as we need a little rain, 3-4 inches in 48 hrs will cause problems, hopefully it can stay out in the channel.

I agree, latest NAE shows the front just about grazing the far SW of Wales, again with the heaviest precipitation out to sea:

http://expertcharts....102409_2318.gif

Very intense narrow band of precipitation being shown for just off sea looking to run through Cornwall though but again if there's an eastward shift perhaps the far SW of Wales to:

http://expertcharts....102412_2318.gif

Met Office seem to go along with the NAE model with an Amber alert issued for Cornwall and extending not to far from coastal SW Pembrokshire: http://www.metoffice...ings.html?day=2

The GFS 18z shows the precipitation in the same place as previous runs today, although it does indicate the risk of some of the intense precipitation running into Pembrokshire:

http://hw.nwstatic.c...8/21/ukprec.png

[Marcus_surfer]

Very wild out there tonight, radar shows rain over us but it's not raining on the coast?

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

Very wild out there tonight, radar shows rain over us but it's not raining on the coast?

Yup Met Office site at Mumbles head @ 2300hrs recorded a gust of 46mph. More of the strong winds tomorrow i would say with the low running up towards our SW: http://expertcharts.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2011/10/23/basis18/ukuk/pslv/11102415_2318.gif

Just a few spots of rain here the heavier stuff formed to the NE.

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

Just checked both the NMM and the NAE models and a slight eastward shift in the front is present. Here's the 24hr precipitation accumulation from the 0z NAE model:

http://expertcharts....102500_2400.gif

Serious amount of precipitation accumulation being shown along the SW coats of Pembrokeshire, Met Office amber alert has also been issued for that region:

http://www.metoffice...t_warnings.html

[mikeocarroll]

That's a staggering amount of rain showing as falling just off the Pembrokeshire coast, a slight eastward shift would lead to some serious flooding.

For the moment the radar seems to be showing the heaviest rain in the Irish sea and the far west of Cornwall.

[KTtom]

I woke up @5AM to heavy rain, apart from an hour lunch time it hasn't stopped. Looking at the radar it will stop around 8...be interested to see the 12 hr total compared to the last 3 month total!

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

I woke up @5AM to heavy rain, apart from an hour lunch time it hasn't stopped. Looking at the radar it will stop around 8...be interested to see the 12 hr total compared to the last 3 month total!

Certainly allot of rain in SW Wales today, for hours the front barely moved with heavy precipitation running up along the front running into the same areas SW England, SW Wales, Ireland & N Ireland. Finally the cold front has started to head NE with a squall line forming on it's back edge which give some heavy rain here in Swansea and some fairly strong winds- Gust of 55mph recorded at Mumbles.

[J10]

A pretty wet day here, radar suggests around an inch of rain, at least it looks as if the worst of the rain has now passed away to the east.

Further rain expected over the next 24 hours, but generally not as heavy as today. Looking at the BBC Wales website there has been some flooding,but hopefully it won't turn out as bad as feared.

As for wind speeds, it was bad enough , but if the wind direction was SW as opposed to SE or E, exposed coasts would have had higher gusts

[TonyH]

I woke up @5AM to heavy rain, apart from an hour lunch time it hasn't stopped. Looking at the radar it will stop around 8...be interested to see the 12 hr total compared to the last 3 month total!

Aberporth total 22mm today, cf 140mm approx in the previous 3 months. (weatheronline)

About 30mm at home.

60mm near Haverfordwest (Derek Brockway)

Edited October 24, 2011 by Tonyh

[Stevetynant]

A few frosts on the car windscreen now starting to appear - was very foggy last night - checking out my weather station - temperature has dropped to 3 and 3.4 degrees in the last two nights so just seeing the signs of winters approach here in the Rhymney Valley - today looks set for some pretty heavy rain later on.

Looking forward to winter now after a pretty disappointing summer and autumn.

[CRACKPOT]

A few frosts on the car windscreen now starting to appear - was very foggy last night - checking out my weather station - temperature has dropped to 3 and 3.4 degrees in the last two nights so just seeing the signs of winters approach here in the Rhymney Valley - today looks set for some pretty heavy rain later on.

Looking forward to winter now after a pretty disappointing summer and autumn.

Hi Steve,

I have noticed how low the temp has gone down this week.... I managed to get a reading of 2°C this week... so definite signs of some cool air coming around in the evenings as we encroach on the late autumn / early winter period. I think within the next several days we will see the possibility of a later 2nd half of November cold shot - just a hunch though, no scientific reasoning behind it.

JK.

[TonyH]

Forecast Sun 30th Oct to Sat 5th Nov, west Wales and the Midlands

Headline: Unsettled and often very mild; wet for west Wales

The theme of late October continues into the start of November, as deep Atlantic lows struggle to make headway against the blocking eastern Europe high, and becoming slow moving close to NW Britain.

This means that in the coming week we are often in a very mild south to SW feed of air, with rain at times, this could be quite copious for Wales, perhaps leading to localised flooding later in the week. Llanwnnen had it's first air frost of the season on Friday morning, down to -0.2c; certainly no frost next week.

Sunday and Monday we are all in a warm sector of low pressure air, so cloudy with rain and drizzle at times for west Wales, especially later Monday as the cold front moves in, while the Midlands sees very little until Monday night. It could brighten up at times for the Midlands with temperatures as high as 18c (12c would be average).

Tuesday may just about stay dry for most, as we are between low pressure systems, also less mild but with sunny intervals- especially for the Midlands.

A deep low then sits close to western Britain on Wednesday and Thursday, sucking up more Tropical maritime air. Very mild once more, double figures Celsius by night, and windy with spells of rain, this often heavy over west Wales by Thursday, with the risk of flooding.

Low pressure still close by Friday and Saturday, so it looks like further rain or showers about to end the week, although with better drier spells between by this stage, and although cooler, still mild for early November.

GFS

and

ECM

hint at the weakest of ridges for Bonfire Night, so hopefully a dry interlude for the fireworks but that's a long way off in weather terms!

[Stevetynant]

Hi John - just starting to tune in again for the winter - things have gone pretty muggy out now - temperature as I write14.2 degrees - quite foggy again.

Tony - if it wasn't for the last two to three years I would say that seems like the onset of a typical Welsh winter in the making - but early days yet - I'm sure there'll be something a little more dramatic in the months to follow.

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

Below is the 36hr precipitation accumulation being projected by the NAE model:

http://expertcharts....110106_3018.gif

You can see the higher accumulation levels towards West and SW Wales where around 25mm is expected, GFS model also showing very much the same amounts for the same time frame:

http://expertcharts....110106_3018.gif

More rain is to be expected as the trough and associated low pressure move eastward towards the UK with weather fronts moving in from the South/SW as shown on the Met O Fax chart for Wednesday:

http://www.meteociel.../fax/fax72s.gif

[keithlucky]

A few different web sites are now starting to pick up changes which be occuring around the end of the month ,colder air will start to push in from the neast pushing west around the start of december ,with cold to very cold weather remaining for the rest of the month,wait and see

Edited October 31, 2011 by keithlucky

[TonyH]

Would you mind linking to these web sites Keith so we can all see what's in store

[legritter]

hi to anyone about in wales , here at winscombe north somerset , we have just had about 5 min of torrential rain . yes iv noticed a couple of sites now starting to beef up the potential for later in nov , but i think its a case of , keep an eye on any cold building first to our far very far north east . theres some good early cold to the north of greenland , lets hope pressure falls over azores as well , regards legritter

[Stevetynant]

lets hope thats right - a few people on the model output threads were very down in the dumps with the expected mild mush heading our way through November.

[Richard McCarthy]

Cool day accross wales highs of 14 Celsius and 10 Celsius The Low.

[TonyH]

Those readings are infact very mild for November Richard, forgive me if you were being ironic..

Edited November 1, 2011 by Tonyh

[TonyH]

Guide to the weeks weather: Sunday 6th to Saturday 12th November, comparing west Wales with the central Midlands

Headline: Mild, dry at first; rain at times later, mostly for west Wales.

October was a very mild month, as we head for one of the warmest ever Autumn's. Llanwwnen had 140mm of rain, which is average, while the Midlands was quite dry again, just 35mm for Rugby (no month this year has had above average rainfall for Warwickshire).

Sunday to Tuesday sees a ridge of high pressure over the UK. A dry bright and fairly mild start to the week. Light winds with the sunniest weather to the west over Wales, while patchy cloud at times for the Midlands courtesy of a decaying trough. The clearer skies also means that west Wales could see a touch of frost first thing in the mornings, with some fog in places too. Maxima in the 10-12c range.

An Atlantic low slowly edges toward western Britain mid week onwards but never makes it across, as yet again the European blocking high asserts against it. Mild south to south-west breezes Wednesday to Thursday with a band of rain crossing all parts, mostly for west Wales, and probably only quite small amounts for the Midlands, as high pressure is close enough by still.

Friday and the weekend: Low pressure remains close to Ireland, and a very mild southerly spreads up again with maxima pushing 16c. Further spells of rain and drizzle for Wales, but probably only smalls amounts, if any, for the Midlands, where it may even brighten up from time to time and feel quite pleasant.

Edited November 5, 2011 by Tonyh

[J10]

Stunning weather day wall to wall blue sky with Temps of 12-13c, as they say on a well known game show, Deal.

[TonyH]

Frosty here last night, min -1c, frosty this evening, currently -0.2c, some low readings likely tonight across Wales.

[mikeocarroll]

If it stays cold through the night I'll try and take some nice wintry pictures in the morning. -3.1c here now, already colder than last night.

[TonyH]

Min -5.5c, however we had a lower reading of -5.6c in October 2010!