Wales - Regional Weather Discussion

[Snowyowl9]

That cheered me up

I`d like to see a graph for Wales since 1981 to see how those temps have yo yo `ed

I`d say from 1988 to now it has cooled on average.

Summers in the west are wet and cool,while recent winters have turned most colder to those mild SW-lys of the late 80`s 90`s.

We seem to be getting more extremes of record maxes to record cold in the last 5 years rather chaotic.

[keithtod43]

Back from working away and it seems that we in for a cold and snowy november due to the lack of solar minimum affect ,we shall see?

[welshgritter]

Any data firming up on this winter as yet ? very mild @ present...............

[mikeocarroll]

Well it looks like getting colder next week - in fact GFS 12z show a decent northerly next week that would potentially bring some hill snow in Wales if it verified, and some very wintry temperatures generally. However other models and other runs aren't showing this at the moment so chances of verification are low.

As for winter generally I'm sceptical of any claims to forecast a season ahead...

[mikeocarroll]

ECM now backing cold plunge for the middle of next week.... would be great synoptics for real cold in winter but certainly could deliver first snow over Welsh mountains and hills maybe down to 300-400m if verified. Still FI at the moment though so we'll have to wait and see.

[mikeocarroll]

Well unsurprisingly runs showing more significant cold now look unlikely to verify, still looks likely (though far from certain) for a colder spell next week though to make things feel a bit more autumnal.

[TonyH]

Here in west Wales, the (almost) first half of October has been warmer than any of the months of June, July, August and September!

Average temperature so far 15.1c. In fact October has been like a darker version of a cool Summer month.

[mikeocarroll]

Yes looks like October could be a very warm first half followed by a cool second half - certainly temps of -0.9c here currently will bring down the October mean from the 14.0c it was up to the end of yesterday.

Anybody else got a decent frost this morning?

[welshgritter]

Morning All, I have had numerous texts this morning about cold weather next week! I am panicking as my gritters are still being reconed. They are indicated single figure temperatures next week - can anyone shed any light as to whether the low ground (M4 corridor Cardiff - Neath) will dip below zero during the nights?

Panicing a bit - please help..........................!!!!!

p.s.....come on wales !!!!!!

[Snowyowl9]

ECM now backing cold plunge for the middle of next week.... would be great synoptics for real cold in winter but certainly could deliver first snow over Welsh mountains and hills maybe down to 300-400m if verified. Still FI at the moment though so we'll have to wait and see.

Cold enough for some Sleet/hail showers next midweek hills looking at this mornings charts.

With that NW-ly.

[mikeocarroll]

Morning All, I have had numerous texts this morning about cold weather next week! I am panicking as my gritters are still being reconed. They are indicated single figure temperatures next week - can anyone shed any light as to whether the low ground (M4 corridor Cardiff - Neath) will dip below zero during the nights?

Panicing a bit - please help..........................!!!!!

p.s.....come on wales !!!!!!

I'm no expert but I think there is a possibility of a ground frost in the M4 corridor next Thurs/Fri night as high pressure builds in after the cool depression. Air frost less likely but not impossible. It's a long way off to try and say though, should have a better idea in another 2-3 days.

Cold enough for some Sleet/hail showers next midweek hills looking at this mornings charts.

With that NW-ly.

Looks like it - It's exciting to see things getting more wintry!

[welshgritter]

Thanks for the updates - keep it going as things firm up! Cheers, Your Local Welsh Grittng Machine!

[TonyH]

A cool unsettled week ahead for Wales, and quite a shock to the system given we have had such a warm first half!

I have, for several months now, been producing texts forecast for family and friends, aimed chiefly at those living in west Wales, and Warwickshire- my present and past abodes, and the locales that I am most tuned into weather-wise.

This is my take on the coming week, based on latest model output and local knowledge:

Forecast for the week ahead (Monday 17th to Sunday 23rd October):

Headline much cooler and unsettled.

The first half of October at Llanwnnen has been warmer than any of the summer months and September!

Monday is cloudy with spells of rain spreading east, heaviest in the west. A windy day.

Truly autumnal Tuesday and Wednesday, air of arctic origin means highs of 10c at best, so the heating comes on at last! Quite windy with showers for most parts some of these being heavy, also some sunny spells especially for the south east of England.

A frosty start to Thursday, the first of Autumn for most. A ridge of high pressure gives a dry bright day but a chilly one.

Friday and next weekend turns unsettled again with rain at times but also milder.

Hope this is useful, and any feedback would be appreciated, as to its usefulness and perceived accuracy! (I mentioned SE England, as my relatives are holiday in Eastbourne this week).

Yes looks like October could be a very warm first half followed by a cool second half - certainly temps of -0.9c here currently will bring down the October mean from the 14.0c it was up to the end of yesterday.

Anybody else got a decent frost this morning?

No frost here in the west.

[mikeocarroll]

. No frost here in the west.

That's the thing, for such a small area Wales has a huge variety of climate. It's strange (/frustrating) here to compare with other areas as it's usually quite a bit colder than most. If it wasn't for observable signs such as frost & ice I'd think that my equipment was faulty, as for example the -0.9 yesterday morning is much colder than most other people reported across these forums.

I've only been here (i.e. in my current location) since Feb so haven't much experience, but the upper wye valley here seems to be a cold place - most montly min temps for Wales are set in this part of Powys (though mostly not as cold as neighbouring Shropshire in England) - the cool must pool down from the surrounding hills, and I suppose a couple of hundred of metres of altitude at the valley floor helps low temps. Will be interesting to observe this winter anyway.

Cheers for posting your forecast above, in my experience of (mostly lurking on) netweather, there's always demand for as many local forecasts as possible! It will be quite a shock to the system next week I think.

[mikeocarroll]

An interesting evening's weather ahead. It's been quite breezy here this afternoon but not quite gale force - I'm sure it's been a lot windier further north and west. There's been some heavy precip over Snowdonia earlier and a band of heavy precip at the moment roughly from Llandovery to Builth in mid Wales (just missing me to the south).

Should be quite a drop in temps and some more precip earlier - front has just reached Anglesey & temps at Pentraeth have fallen from 13.3c to 10.0c in the last 10mins, should fall a lot more over the next hour or so.

It's 11.2c here at the moment and light rain, should be another 2-3 hours before the front reaches.

[summer blizzard]

According to xcweather, 72mph has been recorded at Aberdaron.

[Richard McCarthy]

A cold and showery accross wales, staying like a high chance of convection accross North Wales and The North West England, when the showers come the winds will start to pick up is well.

[mikeocarroll]

Yep had quite a few showers here today, 7.5mm of rainfall so far it total. Current temp 7.9c, overnight low was 0.0c shortly before dawn when we had clear skies for a bit. Could be slightly colder tonight if things settle down as the high pressure comes in.

[TonyH]

8mm from the rain and hail showers here today.

Good chance of an air frost tonight, and even if not, then a ground frost is a cert, which is also the seasons first frost.

[mikeocarroll]

Min of -2.6c here last night, -0.3c currently. It's absolutely still out and a heavy frost on the ground. Looks like warming up over the next few days without too much interesting weather wise, but some moderate wind and rain possible on Monday.

[Richard McCarthy]

Better day today, but still chilly in the wind.

[TonyH]

My take for the next week, contrasting west Wales with the Midlands:

Headline: Mild, some rain at times, mostly for west Wales

A complex low pressure system is waiting over the near Atlantic attempting to bring welcome rain to the Midlands, however a large blocking high over Eastern Europe looks likely to restrict this. However troughs do eventually cross all parts bringing some rain, but most this week for west Wales.

For Sunday and Monday a deep, very mild southerly flow covers the UK, While west Wales sees a little rain at times on Sunday, the Midlands should stay dry and will brighten up and become warm for late October, up to 18c perhaps. A windy day for all. Monday is even windier with further rain at times for the west, some perhaps heavy, this possibly reaching the Midlands later on too, and very mild again for all.

On Tuesday the front manages to cross all parts, while it turns showery behind over Wales. Lighter winds, and less mild. Wednesday looks like a day of sunshine and scattered showers, mostly for west Wales and a touch cooler again.

Differences in what the models see for later in the week:

ECM keeps relatively low pressure close to the UK, so always the chance of showers but with dry, sunny spells between, and probably few showers for the Midlands. GFS builds a ridge of high pressure across from the east, so that all of us turn dry and quite mild, although there could be ground frost in places overnight.

By next weekend a new Atlantic low pressure is attempting to force the high block but seems to struggle once more, so that any rain looks likely in only reaching west Wales and it becomes very mild once more.

Edited October 22, 2011 by Tonyh

[J10]

http://expertcharts....102506_2306.gif (NAE)

NMM shows the potential for equally heavy rainfall.

Chance of extremely heavy rainfall over the next 48 hrs, currently pinpointed for the far West of Wales, SW England and SE Ireland, but exact focus is always liable to change.

Posted in the main model thread but very valid for here. Hopefully the final track will end up further west than this suggests, and this level of rainfall can easily cause flooding issues, even after the recent dryish weather.

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

Definitely there's a westward shift visible in this front compared to yesterdays 12z GFS which took the heaviest of the precipitation up through SW England/East Wales/West Midlands and then up into NW England.

The 12z coming out now shows the front hitting Wales with the heaviest precipitation towards SW Wales:

http://hw.nwstatic.c...2/27/ukprec.png

The NAE shows much the same with the front being most intense towards the SW Of Wales:

http://expertcharts....102409_2312.gif

Something to watch because it wouldn't take much of a shift eastwards of the low pressure to bring that very heavy area of precipitation out in Irish Sea into parts of SW Wales e.g. Pembrokeshire.

Also some strong gusty winds can be expected along the South Coast of Wales tomorrow as shown by the NAE:

http://expertcharts....102415_2312.gif

This also transfers to NW Wales later in the day:

http://expertcharts....102418_2312.gif

[J10]

Definitely there's a westward shift visible in this front compared to yesterdays 12z GFS which took the heaviest of the precipitation up through SW England/East Wales/West Midlands and then up into NW England.

The 12z coming out now shows the front hitting Wales with the heaviest precipitation towards SW Wales:

http://hw.nwstatic.c...2/27/ukprec.png

The NAE shows much the same with the front being most intense towards the SW Of Wales:

http://expertcharts....102409_2312.gif

Something to watch because it wouldn't take much of a shift eastwards of the low pressure to bring that very heavy area of precipitation out in Irish Sea into parts of SW Wales e.g. Pembrokeshire.

Indeed and that's why this low needs looking at. As much as we need a little rain, 3-4 inches in 48 hrs will cause problems, hopefully it can stay out in the channel.