Wales - Regional Weather Discussion

[thetipster]

big spread on the 29th

i sending in a vote of no

confidence after the 29th

[welshgritter]

Whats these graphes mean?

[TonyH]

They are showing the trend in upper air temperatures for Aberdeen!

Naturally the different possibilities diverge with time as opposed to being closer in the near reliable time frame.

Taking the latest model outputs overall little chance of especially cold weather for Wales during the next fortnight at least, as we remain in a generally westerly influenced pattern. Temperatures average to mild on the whole, with the odd cool day and the occasional touch of frost. Snowdonia may see a covering or two but of transient nature.

[keithlucky]

Ageed to a point once the LP moves through on the 1st of decenber a more of a n westerly airflow occurs we could well see wintery showers Friday saturday next week.

[andymusic]

http://news.uk.msn.com/uk/prepare-for-record-snow-and-cold - Don't know where he's getting his info from but right now no widespread snowfall for the UK until at least xmas and beyond right now - just how the models are working right now!

[J10]

How are the Welsh feeling about this winter! Other than complaints from the English, what was last winter like after the New Year is this part.

1 or 2 days of falling snow, but no lying snow after the post Christmas thaw.

Just done my weekly look ahead for the Alps, and prospects for snow there are not good, let alone here. Synoptic charts are on there for the next 7 days as usual.

As others have said, not looking good for snow for at least the next couple of weeks,and it might be odds on for no lying snow here this year.

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

Some strong winds can be expected for North Wales late Saturday and as we head into Sunday as a deepening area of Low pressure runs up towards the NW of the UK:

http://hw.nwstatic.c...2/39/ukwind.png

A cold front will push SE during this time so by Sunday feeling cooler as colder air filters down behind the area of low pressure as shown on the Met O fax chart for Sunday: http://www.meteociel.../fax/fax48s.gif

As others have said, not looking good for snow for at least the next couple of weeks,and it might be odds on for no lying snow here this year.

I agree, snow seems unlikely for a while yet with the most likely case being shots of Polar Maritime Air from a NW flow on the rear of low pressure systems, and such a flow at this point is unlikely to be cold enough to bring any snow this far South apart from the peaks around Snowdonia.

Unless of course we see high pressure ridge up towards Greenland temporarily allowing for a more Northerly flow as shown on tonight's 12z ECM - but that's a long way out yet.

[legritter]

it must have been very frustrating for many in wales as many missed out , .but good for those who had streemers etc . the same happened in and around bristol . we did quite well at winscombe but 12 miles north of here not much . lets hope we can all get in on some action this winter , if it comes later it might be more frontal and more even . its realy frustrating sometimes watching the radar across wales and hoping those big red blobs will make it across the water , but they fizzle out well to the N W of cardiff or swansea ,all the best legritter somerset

[welshgritter]

Just before November I was looking at numerous different winter forecasts and the overall majority with the exception of people who like to the put the fear into the UK (cough Jame Mcfadden) were indicating winter to start around the 12th-19th of December with February ear marked as being the coldest month. It would seem and appear that this will be the case.....

Been scaffolding this morning on a farm in Llantrisant - absolutely blowing a gale!

[TonyH]

Guide to the weeks weather for west Wales and the central Midlands for Sunday 27th November to Saturday 3rd December

Headline: Very unsettled, often windy, mild to average temperatures.

Tonight's strong winds and rain should have cleared away by Sunday morning. A week transient ridge gives a mostly dry if breezy day, just the outside chance of a shower. Reasonably mild, although clearing skies will lead to a slight frost overnight.

After a chilly start on Monday with frost in places, cloud and wind spreads over by afternoon. Rain at times during the afternoon and evening for west Wales,some heavy, while only light rain for the Midlands. Windy with further rain at times during Monday night for Wales, a very mild night. Another spell of heavy rain moves into west Wales early on Tuesday, this cold front crossing the Midlands late in the day too. A mild day again, but turning cooler during the afternoon for Wales.

Chance of a touch of frost first thing Wednesday but most likely too breezy, and with some showers still going over west Wales. Then, a secondary low feature is modelled to cross the UK either late Wednesday or early Thursday, so that we are set for another period of wet and windy weather, and depending on the exact track of this low there is likely to be gales in places Wednesday night, provided that it winds itself up enough, as it looks like doing.

Further showers or longer spells of rain for all of us to end the week and over next weekend, but more especially for west Wales. Often windy and cooler too, with a sprinkling of snow for the Snowdonia summits.

Edited November 26, 2011 by TonyH

[Gorath]

Bloody windy up here on the coast near Bangor too, some intensely strong gusts, but average wind seems quite low. I wish I had an anemometer to measure it.

Although the GFS chart occasionally throws a random spanner in the works and shows a big cloud of cold air over Wales (which is almost always gone by the next model run), I just can't see us getting any serious snowfall within the next two weeks.

Snowdon, however, and maybe some of the nearby mountains? Well, snow frequently pops up on them at the most bizarre times, in the strangest weather, so I reckon they might be snow-capped within the next 10 days.

That's what I keep telling my snowboard anyway :winky:

[TonyH]

This time last year it got down to -14c tonight.

Tonight its 11c.

[welshwizard]

i cant get over how windy it was last night,it has blown everything about the garden. and - 14 last yr to +11 this year wow wat a diff.

my mate works for the council on the gritters and last year he was well busy by now and by the looks ov it he be very quite up and past the new year. at least he can have time with family over xmas ha ha. how is euro area looking on weather front? is everywhere mild or just us again?

[TonyH]

Most of Europe and Scandinavia is on the mild side too with little snow cover on the Alps or in Scandinavia as yet. That should start to change at least for Scandinavia in the next few weeks though.

As been seen from this image:

taken from this thread:

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/70678-snow-and-ice-in-the-northern-hemisphere-201112/page__st__860

[andymusic]

Was up Blyth way last night - Nr Sheffield - crikey it was windy - storm force or what - anyway still looking fairly "mild" slight colder toppler may occur over the weekend into next week - but the severe cold for winter we had last year doesn't want to come our way just yet - keep checking those models!

[andymusic]

Outside chance of some snow showers now showing up for us for Monday into Tuesday + an interesting "extra" low skirting into the cold air - could provide some interesting cold weather activity - will need to see how this develops closer to the time - still not the long cold snowy outlook we'd all like may be, but a little taste/starter for the season!

[Scarlet_Snow]

Andymusic, is that mostly confined to higher elevations or lower too?

[andymusic]

Andymusic, is that mostly confined to higher elevations or lower too?

-5 upper air will be covering Wales for a couple of days, so there is potential for a few snow showers at all levels, but as usual, height will help as well in these situations!

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

There looks to be some strong winds and heavy rain across Wales tomorrow as we see the trough currently in the Atlantic progress eastwards towards the UK. The models have been showing that the trough will gradually dig down over the UK and parts of Europe as we go later into the week and we pick up a colder flow from the North West. As for snow here in Wales it seems rather unlikely at this point away from the highest elevations in N. Wales, unless we see a flow that is more directly from the North allowing colder arctic air to flood southwards - This has been hinted at on the models but its a fair way out yet onwards from 144hrs.

As for Tomorrow the Metoffice Fax chart above shows a cold front pushing east with strong winds especially in W/SW parts of Wales as shown on the NAE model: http://expertcharts....112909_2812.gif

So feeling cooler once that cold front pushes through with some showers about in Western parts of Wales associated with that trough shown behind the cold front on the Met O fax chart.

[keithlucky]

There looks to be some strong winds and heavy rain across Wales tomorrow as we see the trough currently in the Atlantic progress eastwards towards the UK. The models have been showing that the trough will gradually dig down over the UK and parts of Europe as we go later into the week and we pick up a colder flow from the North West. As for snow here in Wales it seems rather unlikely at this point away from the highest elevations in N. Wales, unless we see a flow that is more directly from the North allowing colder arctic air to flood southwards - This has been hinted at on the models but its a fair way out yet onwards from 144hrs.

As for Tomorrow the Metoffice Fax chart above shows a cold front pushing east with strong winds especially in W/SW parts of Wales as shown on the NAE model: http://expertcharts....112909_2812.gif

So feeling cooler once that cold front pushes through with some showers about in Western parts of Wales associated with that trough shown behind the cold front on the Met O fax chart.

Yes jamie lets see if the LP on saturday drags in a more n westerly airstream we got a better chance of some wintry precipation then.

[J10]

The problem with the event next week is that it is 6-7 days away and events like this tend to disappear/downgrade within that timeframe.

We are only tapping into the remnants of the cold, and it is not a full on blast, thicknesses are around 528 which is marginal at best, and that's before a downgrade.

If the charts are very similar in terms of 850HPa and thicknesses by say Wednesday/Thursday, then it might be worth looking at again.

But on a positive side, at least at those looking for cold, it is promising and it should give snow to other parts of Europe (Scandinavia and perhaps the Alps) , which have been mild so far this Autumn period.

[welshwizard]

well the wind is really starting to pick up here, i hate the wind to be honest as we are very high up and get caught by it when it is bad. looks like we are going to get a bit colder by the weekend listening to the radio this morn.dont think it be cold enough for Andy music weather but still going in the right direction. i was hoping we have a nice cold winter as we moved 4 months ago and are now in prime postion for snow lol, we are half way up mountain at 268m asl. just my luck that we have a mild one ha ha. Andy i should imagine that i also be having snow now just like u did last year, remem i drove up there as others were saying it cant be that bad and ooooo yes it was lol. i struggled in my 4x4 to get there ha ha.

[andymusic]

well the wind is really starting to pick up here, i hate the wind to be honest as we are very high up and get caught by it when it is bad. looks like we are going to get a bit colder by the weekend listening to the radio this morn.dont think it be cold enough for Andy music weather but still going in the right direction. i was hoping we have a nice cold winter as we moved 4 months ago and are now in prime postion for snow lol, we are half way up mountain at 268m asl. just my luck that we have a mild one ha ha. Andy i should imagine that i also be having snow now just like u did last year, remem i drove up there as others were saying it cant be that bad and ooooo yes it was lol. i struggled in my 4x4 to get there ha ha.

Yes Welshwizard I remember it well - seems this winter is starting off a little weaker - but you never know it could be a real wild one again - all on our starting blocks on thursday - official winter begins and already a slight cold snap to open with - you are 28m higher than me, so expect 28mm more snow and you should get it 1st too LOL!

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

Pretty impressive winds gusts across Wales today, Met Office observations show that Capel Curig had a wind gust of 81mph @1300hrs.

Whats also noticeable is the sharp drop in temperature once the cold front has passed. My own station has shown a drop of -4.7C per hour, which is simular to the one at Capel Curig which went from 11.2C to 6.8C in an hour so a drop of exactly 4.4C in the hour.

[Backtrack]

I was really expecting to see some snow over the summits of Snowdon today, but as per the webcam, it just looks wet.

-4C uppers with freezing level below the summits is a recipe for snow over mountains. Strange!