Arctic Ice Discussion

[BornFromTheVoid]

A gain in extent today of 9,000km2, or 10,000km2 over the last 2 days. Another 2 or 3 days of this and we could probably call the minima

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/plot.csv

[stewfox]

A gain in extent today of 9,000km2, or 10,000km2 over the last 2 days. Another 2 or 3 days of this and we could probably call the minima

http://www.ijis.iarc...extent/plot.csv

I think they would wait at least a week, given was it last year a 'notice' that min had been reached when it wasn't.

Its low but know step change or anything unusual

[BornFromTheVoid]

I think they would wait at least a week, given was it last year a 'notice' that min had been reached when it wasn't.

Its low but know step change or anything unusual

Yeah, it is probably wise to give it a week. Last years calls were based on 3 days of gains totalling about 55,000km2, so a lot more than we've even got the last few days.

Looking ahead with the Northern Hemisphere charts, conditions look ok across the Arctic for the next 48 hours with a decent sized cold pool across the centre of the ice

After that we have a large high pressure system moving northwards from central Russia, dragging very mild air up through Barents/Kara seas across the ice and squeezing out much of the cold air. This may result in melting and compaction around Barents side of the ice, with spreading across the Bering side.

As the high pressure moves east, the mild air gets pulled across much of the Arctic, so that by t120, there is less deep cold across the Arctic than at t0

With that in mind, I see little change in extent over the coming 5 days, melt near Barents and spreading near Bering strait perhaps cancelling each other out.

The one danger is that the ice spreading near the Bering side may end up moving across waters that are above 0C. In that case, we may be relying on the seasonal cool down have a quick affect on SSTs in the regions to prevent the ice melting out from the base upwards.

[Gray-Wolf]

Sadly if ice drifts over the 'warm water' it caps it and so the column does not shed heat as it would with a large body of air to take up the heat? In some ways 'compaction' may be better for the pack (but not the extent?) as it will keep the ocean open to the atmosphere and allow cool down to begin properly?

[songster]

Every silver lining has a cloud, eh?

[BornFromTheVoid]

Another increase today of 5.5k on the IJIS site, so about 16,000km2 gained since the 9th.

If the 9th does turn out to be the minimum, you'd have to go back to 1995 to find an earlier one.

[Gray-Wolf]

I'd got the notion that it'd be quite a slow finish to the season (alot of days near 'balancing out'?) but ,as often, I might have been wrong!

With the ice as thin as it is compaction ,via equinocturnal gales could well do a lot of 'compaction' and flush out of the peripheral ice (the centre is now into 'winter mode'?) and even some 'washed out' by swells bathing it in warm sea water?

Let's see what Maria's remnants do later on?

[The PIT]

Well another year over and although disappointing in the terms of melt the end of the world failed to arrive and will have to wait until next year. All eyes now on how it refreezes. Hopefully next year will see a recovery,

[Gray-Wolf]

. Hopefully next year will see a recovery,

Is hope all you are left with Pit or could you outline how we could expect 'recovery'?

The other point being what would you consider to be a sign of 'recovery'?

[Gray-Wolf]

Makes you wonder just how that chunk of Peterman is hanging on? If refreeze doesn't cement it in soon it'll go and then we are in unkown territory (and ever closer to the 50m below sea level ice filled Fjord beyond......and on inside the basin!) as far as the glacial retreat goes!

[BornFromTheVoid]

A gain of 23,000km2 before adjustments, much of it coming from the ice near Beaufort.

[BornFromTheVoid]

A surprising 47,000km2 gain today, the largest individual daily gain for the first half of September since 2004 methinks, though that's just at a quick glance so I may be wrong!

[songster]

Assuming no major unexpected losses in the next few days, the winner of the predictions sweepstake was Thundery Wintry Showers with 4.5 million: almost dead on!

Next closest was BornFromTheVoid with 4.3 million, followed by NorthNorfolkWeather with 4.8 million.

I hereby award Thundery Wintry Showers a virtual goldfish and a party hat.

[Methuselah]

Makes you wonder just how that chunk of Peterman is hanging on? If refreeze doesn't cement it in soon it'll go and then we are in unkown territory (and ever closer to the 50m below sea level ice filled Fjord beyond......and on inside the basin!) as far as the glacial retreat goes!

It's certainly looking dire, mate. I shudder to think what might happen should there be another warm NH next year ...

[Gray-Wolf]

I can't remember the prof's name but he wrote an article on the big calve last year. It was his opinion that ,up to the big calve, things were progressing as they ever did. Should we see this 'Manhattan Island' sized piece break off (as well as the mass lost last year) I imagine he would now voice concerns.

Of all the folk I'd read on the 'superberg' he was the only one who did not see the recent history (up to before the super-berg calve) as a worry. :-)

[pottyprof]

I shudder to think what might happen should there be another warm NH next year ...

Slush Puppies for everyone? Mine's a blue raspberry.........

[Hiya]

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/index.html

[stewfox]

Another reasonable gain , it does look like we could have a early minimum

[scotty_boy_winter]

BFTP is the closest extent. The lowest recorded was 4.33 million on the 9th of september

[BornFromTheVoid]

BFTP is the closest extent. The lowest recorded was 4.33 million on the 9th of september

I think we were going by the IJIS figures, which have it at 4.52 million on the 9th

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/plot.csv

Still though, there's been a drop so far today so ya never know!

[scotty_boy_winter]

Lol this has been an unusual met year so ya never know!

I think we were going by the IJIS figures, which have it at 4.52 million on the 9th

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/plot.csv

Still though, there's been a drop so far today so ya never know!

[trisnow]

Another reasonable gain , it does look like we could have a early minimum

Has it been called already? Who does so? I read an article on the BBC a few days ago saying it had been called on the ninth - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-14945773

Has it gained from the 15th to the 16th after that drop on the 15th? I can see losses and gains on this animation for the 16th http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/CT/animate.arctic.color.0.html

[Gray-Wolf]

If 'Min' has been called BFTV we'll know some time this week. I'd have imagined that this weeks synoptics may actually have us heading down again for a few days? (whether it gets as low as the 9th is another question entirely!)

[paul tall]

I bet you are hoping it does drop back down to the levels of the 9th or below, though.

So anyway, the Met Office have an article about the "2nd lowest ice minimum" just to keep climate change in the forefront of everyone's mind.

The thing is, it isn't the lowest is it? Is it really that newsworthy? What if next year is the 4th lowest or something? Do we think there will be an article on how it is the 4th lowest and this is baaaaaad?

[Gray-Wolf]

I think we need to bare in mind 'natural variability' and if next year (where ever it ends) is within one 'standard deviation' of the mean I would still have my concerns over the direction we see the Arctic sea ice heading?

As for my 'Hopes'? Don't be daft P.T.! I'd like to a a concerted 'recovery' that does not (in it's nature) challenge the planets abilities to produce food in the quantities that we need?

I would ask why you think that;

"I bet you are hoping it does drop back down to the levels of the 9th or below, though."

as I do find it both a tad 'scalding' and unnecessary (as I'm sure some other who post here will too?).