Arctic Ice Discussion

[Optimus Prime]

I find it hard to believe global dimming would have had any particular effect on Arctic temperatures during the industrial revolution. Any kind of atmospheric pollutants would have been generated in the west which may have had some local cooling effects...but the arctic? I find it doubtful when bearing in mind there's no industry up there. Of course I realise much of the worlds pollutants ended up in the arctic (and still do on a yearly basis) but concentrations high enough to effect northern hemisphere temperatures And Arctic temperatures back then? No way. Even with world war 2 I'd be surprised if it had the kind of cooling effect experienced. Although I do accept it only takes a small amount to magnify the climatic drivers.

The change in ice and snow pollutant concentrations, making the snow darker I find a little more believable.

Edited September 6, 2011 by Optimus Prime

[loafer]

I suspect your suspicions are correct; while the data is reported to be from NASA the graph originates from the "skeptic" blog of Roy Spencer (apologies for not stating source).

It took me a total of 90 seconds to navigate, via the links above, to the NASA page http://neo.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/Search.html?pg=12&datasetId=AMSRE_SSTAn_M

If you had looked too, you would see that the reason the graph starts in June 2002 is that that date is the earliest data published by NASA.

There are enough conspiracy theories around CC without you guys creating new ones.

[Methuselah]

Dunno Pete, if what we see across the Arctic is 'messing' with our N.Hemisphere climate already (and the 'Arctic Amplification' is to be accepted as an impact large enough to mess with the lower latitude climates) then we have no 'analogue' to go by?

I believe that we are experiencing impacts, from the A.A., that are above and beyond natural climate variation and that the rapid exchange of Arctic air (north to south) that we (N.Hemisphere) have been seeing since at least 02' (and here for the past 2 winters at least) is one aspect of this in late autumn/early winter.

How anyone can think that 20c anoms across large swathes of the Arctic Ocean (as the summer heat dissipates to allow re-freeze to begin) will not have an impact is beyond me!!! Imagine your locale with a 20c positive anom over you in Dec? what would folk say???

EDIT: Oh! BTW.... I bet there's rich folk eating in a fancy dining car

And smoking big cigars??

This whole climate change reminds me of religion.

I bet that the people that believe that we are causing it (sin) and can somehow reverse it or prevent it getting worse, are on the whole religious.

I bet that people who are not convinced, who require more convincing evidence for the pro man made warming stance, who think that perhaps this could be nothing unusual in the grand scheme of things, are on the whole generally skeptical atheists.

The Climate Change Industry is a golden goose to a lot of people, and it's Church is the Met Office, who deliver regular sermons.

There will be exceptions to my belief/non belief, theist/atheist theory, before anyone says "no, it's not true for me actually/ no, it's not relevant"

Can't say I agree with any of that, Paul. Me being sceptical an' all...

[Gray-Wolf]

LOL Pete!

[BornFromTheVoid]

First 6 days of the month and the melt rate has averaged 25,854km2/day, with the long term average being 16,808 for the same period.

Weather over the Arctic ocean looks pretty good in the short term. Southerly winds through Fram mainly, so no ice loss there. Wide spread -10C uppers and some -15C across the ice and surface temps well below 0C, approaching -10C in some spots.

In the medium term, things not quite so good. The cold air gets squeezed south over eastern Siberia and down through the C.A. towards Hudson bay while warmer air moves north from the Barents sea and Alaska. Very good for snowfall over land but not great for the ice.

The air despite this should still be cooling though, so it's unlikely to have too much impact this time of year.

[Gray-Wolf]

Hi BFTP!

It's an odd one to try and 'Scry'? I've been worried about compaction /export but I still think that any spread i, in certain areas, would still lead to melt?

I feel it has been quite an unusual melt season and well worth the attention some folk chose to pay it? It could well be the 'proto season' of the ones to come (up until the next 'perfect storm') as we have seen how the basin acts without any type of spine of 'Paleocrystic ice' and have relied purely on ice younger than 5yrs.

We (I believe) have seen how 'thin ice' can allow the surface waters to warm even before the sun gets to it, we have seen what a season , under such conditions, can bring us even without any significant export.

I'd kinda think we've 'bottomed out' now for an average year and if temps/weather remain similar (and we keep to the same level of 'export') then it would be difficult to see us get a lower melt without first losing the 2nd/3rd/4th year ice in the proportions we have seen this year?

If this winter reduces the amount of 'older ice' then I may have to re-access my feeling on this but if the basin keeps a similar proportion of ice types then 4.5 ish may be it's limit without more 'favourable conditions for melt' being present in the basin (i.e average export levels).

Let us see how the older ice does from now until Jan and then we can better 'guess' next years potential for melt.

On that

[BornFromTheVoid]

Hello GW,

Shall we call it now? Lowest sea ice area on record?

[Gray-Wolf]

http://tyeebridge.com/?p=608

More from the 'Methane prof' (back in March)

Hi BFTV!

Scary really but not in the least surprising to anyone wishing to look at the past 20yrs of Arctic degradation?

[trevw]

This whole climate change reminds me of religion.

I bet that the people that believe that we are causing it (sin) and can somehow reverse it or prevent it getting worse, are on the whole religious.

I bet that people who are not convinced, who require more convincing evidence for the pro man made warming stance, who think that perhaps this could be nothing unusual in the grand scheme of things, are on the whole generally skeptical atheists.

The Climate Change Industry is a golden goose to a lot of people, and it's Church is the Met Office, who deliver regular sermons.

There will be exceptions to my belief/non belief, theist/atheist theory, before anyone says "no, it's not true for me actually/ no, it's not relevant"

Sounds a bit like you are saying that "anyone who believes that AGW is significant is a religious nut. But if you believe in AGW and not God you can't disagree because you are an exception" ? :-)

For my part I'd say some of the more uncompromising viewpoints on both sides have more than a hint of 'religious fervour' about them and that rhetoric without scientific proof should probably be ignored.

[Gray-Wolf]

For my part I'd say some of the more uncompromising viewpoints on both sides have more than a hint of 'religious fervour' about them and that rhetoric without scientific proof should probably be ignored.

what more could one say? (IMHO)

[Gray-Wolf]

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/

Though only a blog the info here can be most informative. Even it's arctic ice 'poll' results seem quite reasonable (not either 'super high' figures from deniers or super low from 'worriers') as you can find on most sites?).

[Methuselah]

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/

Though only a blog the info here can be most informative. Even it's arctic ice 'poll' results seem quite reasonable (not either 'super high' figures from deniers or super low from 'worriers') as you can find on most sites?).

Here's a link for you, Ian... http://www.badscience.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=25411

Another discussion along similar lines...

[Gray-Wolf]

Cheers Pete!

Seeing as I'm a 'Half Full' kinda soul (allegedly) what if Katla blows her top whilst either Katia or Maria are approaching? If we lay a layer of ash across the pole then what would that mean for th summer next year when that layer is uncovered???

Would the Sulphate's have impact still then (if enough are produced) or will they have 'washed out'?

The other point are the impacts of 'Cane remnants on the areas they impact. Will Katia increase the pressure Grad across Fram to the point where we could see 'export' of more than the 20km a day losses we are seeing at present?

[Gray-Wolf]

On the point of 'Cane remnants Maria's not looking good for Fram!

[songster]

What are you on about? Maria has just about dropped below tropical storm strength off the coast of Antigua.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Very alarming, IMO. What'll happen when the Polar Jet (in the places that matter anyway) heads back northwards?

In about 200 years I think Pete......according to GWO. My thoughts are 20-30 years of southerly moving jet, and if true solar minima arrives...longer.

.

BFTP

[BornFromTheVoid]

Just 6,000km2 lost before adjustments. We may well see a gain overall today.

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/plot.csv

[cooling climate]

Another melt season virtually over and again nothing really

unusual to report despite all the speculation.

[scotty_boy_winter]

Lmao....ok cc

Another melt season virtually over and again nothing really

unusual to report despite all the speculation.

[songster]

Be fair, these days it seems a photo finish for a new record minimum genuinely is "nothing really unusual".

[BornFromTheVoid]

A gain of 1,000km2 today on the IJIS site. May be the end of the melt season or may be a brief jump before some further falls like in 2006, 2007, 2010 to name but a few. Conditions still looking ok. Some compaction on the Barents/Kara side with spreading around Barents possible over the next week.

Edited September 11, 2011 by BornFromTheVoid

[Geordiesnow]

A gain of 10,000km2 today on the IJIS site. May be the end of the melt season or may be a brief jump before some further falls like in 2006, 2007, 2010 to name but a few. Conditions still looking ok. Some compaction on the Barents/Kara side with spreading around Barents possible over the next week.

Looking at the excel charts, looks to me its a gain of just under 1,000KM2 rather than 10,000 BFTV?

I'm interested to hear CC responce why he did not think this melt season was unusual, looks like we are on course for the 2nd lowest on record and apparently more older thicker ice has been lost?

I got to admit, looking at the synotopics whilst apparently the di-pole pattern did not occur as frequently in other years, you could hardly call the Arctic summer exactly a cloudy cool stormy one so extent is perhaps not surprisingly is quite low and coupled with last winters blocking quite alot of the time which brings higher temperatures thus not the strongest ice pack, is it really a surprise to see where we are?

Of course, cooler conditions did prevail at the end of July and August but for the former whilst the extent did slow down, a big part of it was perhaps more due to the thin ice spreading out and for the latter, SST's was starting to melt the ice underneath so even though conditons may of been more favourable, it was irrelevant how cool the weather was although it may of stopped even higher drops? Who knows.

Perhaps a concerning for me though and I like to hear what CC thinks of this, the extent figure apart from a period during the spring time has been either the lowest or 2nd lowest on record since October 2010, surely that is a noticeworthy statistic?

Be interesting what the extent will be during the refreeze but it would not surprise me if its on the low side by December as too my eyes, Hudson Bay had a very hot summer and SST's look very high there, of course HB will cool down quickly if any sustained cold uppers arrive but it took a while for it to freeze over last year so its something I will keep an eye on.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Looking at the excel charts, looks to me its a gain of just under 1,000KM2 rather than 10,000 BFTV?

Indeed, you're right. It's 1,000km2, will edit that now. Cheers.

Edited September 11, 2011 by BornFromTheVoid

[Gray-Wolf]

I think this is the first 'rise' in extent this seasons end? Is this not pretty late on in the end of melt season to see the first 'rise' in extent?

I'm sure even 07' had it's first 'gain' earlier than this?

Sure we are drawing to a close in the melt season but I'm still of the opinion we have a bit to go yet?

As ever ,time alone will tell!!!

[BornFromTheVoid]

I think this is the first 'rise' in extent this seasons end? Is this not pretty late on in the end of melt season to see the first 'rise' in extent?

I'm sure even 07' had it's first 'gain' earlier than this?

Sure we are drawing to a close in the melt season but I'm still of the opinion we have a bit to go yet?

As ever ,time alone will tell!!!

Yep, 2007 had gains on the 1st, 2nd, 17th, 18th, 19th, and 20th, before reaching it's minimum on the 24th

As for whether what we are seeing and have seen this year is unusual or not (2nd lowest extent on record, lowest area and volume on record), here are the temperature and air pressure anomalies for 2007, 2010 and 2011.

Temperature (April 1st - September 8th)

Air Pressure

Certainly not as warm as last year, and probably not as warm as 07. Air pressure anomaly-wise, nothing on the dipole of 07 but probably similar in affect to last year. That's how I see it anyway.

The only thing left then are the SSTAs, all in Kelvin unfortunately and from July 1st to September 8th.

They all seem to have areas warmer and cooler than each other but no particular year stands out as being substantially warmer than the others, make of that what you will I suppose.