Summer Forecast - Hot & Dry - Shades Of 1976

[William of Walworth]

It's certainly a bold forecast from G.P who, as far as I'm concerned, is one of the most respected contributors to this forum. I applaud it, not because it tells me what I want to hear ( it certainly doesn't ! ) but because it's backed up with sound reason.

Weather forecasting over any time scale is not an exact science and over the span of a whole season is pushing the outer boundaries of what is realistically possible but G.P has, in the past, delivered some remarkable accuracy with regard to general patterns and their influence on our weather.

However let's not lose sight of the fact that is a forecast and not a statement of fact. If it goes wrong let's give him the space to examine his method and explain why rather than jumping in with hasty criticism and dismissing him as a failed forecaster.

Bear in mind, no matter what happens during the summer, no-one else on here could have done any better other than by chance.

All of this is sensible (as was TWS's response to the above post).

I too hope GP isn't making a rod for his own back -- and not just because I want his forecast to be broadly right. I echo calls that he be treated gently and with respect if there are unexpected derails.

Myself I'm broadly optimistic for the summer overall, but I also understand some posters' nagging suspicions that the mid Atlantic trough just might end up positioning itself slightly too near us -- which could lead to a SE barbecue parry with more unsettled less sunny conditions further North/West.

Also JACKONE's very very early Glastonbury Festival forecast (22-27th June), based mostly for now on very long term American patterning, suggests heatlovers for that particular week show caution caution .... obviously his weekly updates will evolve and change with more evidence emerging.

Back to GP's forecast, I love the words 'Northerly Track Jet' or similar though -- can't hear too much of those!!

Edited May 18, 2011 by William of Walworth

[North-Easterly Blast]

Not really, we are statistically more overdue a cool summer and when I mean a cool summer, I mean of sub 15C for the CET. There hasn't been one since 1993 whilst there have been 3 summers since then over 17C for the CET. So we are not really overdue that type of summer, heatwise.

Rainfall wise there is a more of a case.

Exactly. Many quote the last four summers as being poor, though statistically only as they have come on the back of two exceptionally warm summers in 2003 and 2006 they may have felt poor, but the last four summers have by no means been cool / poor overall and statistically the last four summers have been more normal after two exceptional ones in 2003 and 2006.

Looking at the last four summers, 2007 was very wet in June and July though the CET was still above average in June believe it or not. August then settled down to drier weather though still not that warm. Summer 2008 saw close to average temperatures although mostly unsettled. Summer 2009 saw some very wet spells in July though the CET was not that cool. Either side of this, June and August 09 were reasonable summer months, with both having rainfall a little below average and the CET slightly above - so how can anyone complain about the summer months of June and August 09? Summer 2010 had a reasonable June and July, both were quite warm and mainly dry though it turned cooler and wetter in August - but how can anyone complain about the summer months of June and July 2010?

[Weather-history]

Exactly. Many quote the last four summers as being poor, though statistically only as they have come on the back of two exceptionally warm summers in 2003 and 2006 they may have felt poor, but the last four summers have by no means been cool / poor overall and statistically the last four summers have been more normal after two exceptional ones in 2003 and 2006.

Looking at the last four summers, 2007 was very wet in June and July though the CET was still above average in June believe it or not. August then settled down to drier weather though still not that warm. Summer 2008 saw close to average temperatures although mostly unsettled. Summer 2009 saw some very wet spells in July though the CET was not that cool. Either side of this, June and August 09 were reasonable summer months, with both having rainfall a little below average and the CET slightly above - so how can anyone complain about the summer months of June and August 09? Summer 2010 had a reasonable June and July, both were quite warm and mainly dry though it turned cooler and wetter in August - but how can anyone complain about the summer months of June and July 2010?

Summers 2007 and 2008 were poor, at least around here. The Manchester Summer indices for these summers were 174 and 168 respectively, which are mediocre values to say the least. The problem with looking at just the mean temperatures is that you could have a month with low maxima and high minima and that is what happened with August 2008, the maxima were on the cool side, it was actually maxima wise the coolest August since 1993. August 2008 was a poor summer month, maxima were suppressed, rain was frequent and it was very dull.

Its the maxima that people tend to remember and respond to in the summer. People also respond more +vely when its sunnier than when its cloudier.

July 2010 around this neck of the woods was very cloudy.

The three factors that make for a memorable summer are large amounts of sunshine, lack of rain days and high maxima.

Its no good, if the month is warm but wet and largely cloudy.

[Slowpoke]

Exactly. Many quote the last four summers as being poor, though statistically only as they have come on the back of two exceptionally warm summers in 2003 and 2006 they may have felt poor, but the last four summers have by no means been cool / poor overall and statistically the last four summers have been more normal after two exceptional ones in 2003 and 2006.

Looking at the last four summers, 2007 was very wet in June and July though the CET was still above average in June believe it or not. August then settled down to drier weather though still not that warm. Summer 2008 saw close to average temperatures although mostly unsettled. Summer 2009 saw some very wet spells in July though the CET was not that cool. Either side of this, June and August 09 were reasonable summer months, with both having rainfall a little below average and the CET slightly above - so how can anyone complain about the summer months of June and August 09? Summer 2010 had a reasonable June and July, both were quite warm and mainly dry though it turned cooler and wetter in August - but how can anyone complain about the summer months of June and July 2010?

No, it all depends on where you live. Simple as that. I can tell you here in NW England it they have been far from "normal"

[Thundery wintry showers]

The summers of 2007 and 2008 were far from "normal" in most eastern parts of England either, with an unusually dull wet June in 2007 (especially near the east coast where low cloud was frequent during the settled spell in the first third), and July 2007 was also very wet but not quite as dull. August 2008, though not as dull as in the west, was still one of the dullest of the century. 2009 and 2010 fell into the "warm but rather mixed" category. July 2009 was exceptionally wet, although a lot of the rain in eastern areas came from thundery downpours rather than persistent frontal rain.

[Gavin P]

North Easterly Blast seems to think if you have a maxima of 16c and its overcast all day and its poaring with rain all day, but the minima holds up at around 13c so the overall temperature comes out close to normal, that constitutes a "normal" summers day.

[Roger J Smith]

He's right, if I happen to be visiting England at that time.

Would post a forecast too, but have already done so in summer thread ... mostly on the same page as this NW forecast, probably my numbers would be about halfway from normal values to this forecast, I am expecting each month to average 0.5 to 1.0 C above normal in most places trending to near normal far west and north, and rainfall in the range of 70% southeast England to 110% western Scotland and far northern Ireland. Greatest warmth likely second half of July from my research. Sunshine likely to register at about 10-20 per cent above average most regions, and could reach +30% in the east and southeast. The occasional severe outbreak in west Midlands, northwest England and southwest Scotland where the greatest thermal contrast will occur. Probably not an exceptional summer for thunderstorms in the southeast, but bound to be a few clusters drifting across from northern France in the slack southerly flow anticipated.

I'll go out on a limb and say the highest temperature in the UK will be 36 C somewhere around Kent in late July, and for Ireland about 31 C for an extreme.

[Liam J]

I admire the boldness of this forecast it ouses confidence and I do hope it proves to be just about spot on, but I don't like anything to hot here in the uk 20-25c is more than warm enough without being to apressive and uncomfortable.

I have read a 'monthly outlook' which covers june on another site which reads pretty much the opposite to this and mentions cool at times with LP dominating for periods.

At the end of the day they are both forecasts and by no means certain to come off, and we won't know for a while the end result, but I wouldn't like to put my money anywhere.

[Summer Sun]

I admire the boldness of this forecast it ouses confidence and I do hope it proves to be just about spot on, but I don't like anything to hot here in the uk 20-25c is more than warm enough without being to apressive and uncomfortable.

I have read a 'monthly outlook' which covers june on another site which reads pretty much the opposite to this and mentions cool at times with LP dominating for periods.

At the end of the day they are both forecasts and by no means certain to come off, and we won't know for a while the end result, but I wouldn't like to put my money anywhere.

If you have looked at the month ahead forecast on the site I think you have they only update that on the 1st of each month so come the 1st June it could completely change and come in line with the one Netweather issued yesterday.

[Summer of 95]

but how can anyone complain about the summer months of June and July 2010?

July 2010- even duller than August 2008. An abysmal month that I never hope to see repeated. Last year June was sunnier here than July and August combined.

I hope the forecast is right for the whole UK, not just the SE or E- one thing I dread even more than a 2007 repeat is yet another summer of persistent SE/NW splits, like 2009 and 2010, where we inevitably get all the cloud but little or none of the rain. That'll be no good for either sun-lovers or drought-stricken farmers.

[Liam J]

If you have looked at the month ahead forecast on the site I think you have they only update that on the 1st of each month so come the 1st June it could completely change and come in line with the one Netweather issued yesterday.

It was issued on the 14th of May.

Edited May 18, 2011 by james12

[stewfox]

Which is why most crops are planted in spring.

Consuming dust.

There was precious little of this going on in 76 when stand-pipes and bowsers were in use due to low mains pressure and garden watering was a criminal offence in many densely populated areas.

That's besides the vast swathes of countryside burnt to a cinder with the devastation of wildlife and danger to local buildings with an overstretched fire brigade without enough water to put the fires out. Outdoor living not quite so enjoyable in those circumstances.

Be careful what you wish for.

The first post on the thread , after reading 30 or so that talks about potential reality

No one went into panic on here during December when the severe cold was making a massive impact on the fragile UK economy, only just out of recession. And the damage went on as soon as the cold hit - unlike drought which may hit potentially a few months down the line if thing don't change in the mean time. So why the panic?

Because it tends to get warmer in spring

Have you ever expereince minimal water restrictions ?

[Milhouse]

But it will be interesting, very noteworthy and after the part few years of exceptional winters but mediocre summers it will make a change to have a summer to remember.

[Kentish Kiwi]

I'll go out on a limb and say the highest temperature in the UK will be 36 C somewhere around Kent in late July, and for Ireland about 31 C for an extreme.

Quite some call! Though I'm sure if that kind of heat occurred at the end of July it would take a pretty poor rest of the month for it to only come in at 0.5C to 1C above normal... (assuming such heat needs to build over a number of days for a figure like that to be recorded)

[Thundery wintry showers]

I've supported the N-W summer forecast in my update to the N-W month-ahead forecast. As I see it, we're currently in a not dissimilar pattern to the one that we had at the very start of April 2011- dry but cloudy south-westerlies and active systems to the north. Although it looks like it will be a longer process this time, I can see plenty of scope for a similar progression to emerge with an extensive area of high pressure setting up over central and western Europe by the time we get well into June- all it would require is for the jet to shift further north and/or slow down and I envisage the latter happening.

The other common factor is that I'm not sure where any extensive rain is going to come from during the next 30 days or so for those strained south-eastern districts.

[Summer Sun]

It was issued on the 14th of May.

It's not the site i'm thinking of then.

[Bottesford]

Because it tends to get warmer in spring

Have you ever expereince minimal water restrictions ?

1995 was closest I remember and yes it was dry. Water still came out the tap though and I have no doubt it will this year too. We are a long way from stand pipes in the street - we'd need a hot, dry summer followed by a dry winter going into another dry summer for that to happen. Even then - we have much improved infrastructure for water resource management than we did in the 70s.

I for one will enjoy the summer no matter how hot & dry it gets in the same way many enjoyed the extreme cold no matter how many old ladies froze to death/legs got broken on ice/holidays got ruined by snow... Can't change it so no there is no guilt!

[The PIT]

Hot summer going to have one or two interesting ecominic impacts.

[TEITS]

Very pleasing forecast and considering the accuracy of NW LRF it makes even more pleasing to read.

Cannot help but wonder how the lack of rainfall across the UK may increase the temps slightly higher than normal. Now im unsure whether rainfall has been above or below normal in France but if they have been equally below normal this may increase our max temps even more.

So the combination of the NW forecast and the lack of recent rainfall makes me wonder if we may see our highest max temp reach between 35-38C. I honestly believe the very dry ground can increase surface temps by around 3-4C.

[SP1986]

Very pleasing forecast and considering the accuracy of NW LRF it makes even more pleasing to read.

Cannot help but wonder how the lack of rainfall across the UK may increase the temps slightly higher than normal. Now im unsure whether rainfall has been above or below normal in France but if they have been equally below normal this may increase our max temps even more.

So the combination of the NW forecast and the lack of recent rainfall makes me wonder if we may see our highest max temp reach between 35-38C. I honestly believe the very dry ground can increase surface temps by around 3-4C.

Indeed, this factor helped us to the record warm April. It's quite impressive how high temperature can go under dry conditions, after the ground has been baked. it actually also allows the temperature to fall away at night quite quickly. Personally I prefer a humid, warm kind of scenario, helps my dry skin etc, but definitely I suspect you could be right, should the forecast turn out to be correct, the maximum temperature is probably likely to be at least mid-30's (especially with any southerly airflow)

[95 Degrees]

Very pleasing forecast and considering the accuracy of NW LRF it makes even more pleasing to read.

Cannot help but wonder how the lack of rainfall across the UK may increase the temps slightly higher than normal. Now im unsure whether rainfall has been above or below normal in France but if they have been equally below normal this may increase our max temps even more.

So the combination of the NW forecast and the lack of recent rainfall makes me wonder if we may see our highest max temp reach between 35-38C. I honestly believe the very dry ground can increase surface temps by around 3-4C.

I think Western Europe as a whole has been drier than average this spring, (apart from iberia) although France and more southern countries will likely be even drier than us due to evapotranspiration from the heat they are having currently. Although I was sure that hotter temperatures due to dry ground was more of a local effect so if we were to get that occuring it would have to be from our own shores, could be wrong though?

[Don]

Indeed, this factor helped us to the record warm April. It's quite impressive how high temperature can go under dry conditions, after the ground has been baked. it actually also allows the temperature to fall away at night quite quickly. Personally I prefer a humid, warm kind of scenario, helps my dry skin etc, but definitely I suspect you could be right, should the forecast turn out to be correct, the maximum temperature is probably likely to be at least mid-30's (especially with any southerly airflow)

I think dry conditions was also one of the factors that helped make the famous August 2003 heatwave so intense. If the Netweather Summer forecast does end up close to the mark, I wouldn't be suprised to see the 38.5C record matched somewhere with a chance of it even tumbling!

Edited May 19, 2011 by Don

[Harry]

It's certainly a bold forecast from G.P who, as far as I'm concerned, is one of the most respected contributors to this forum. I applaud it, not because it tells me what I want to hear ( it certainly doesn't ! ) but because it's backed up with sound reason.

Weather forecasting over any time scale is not an exact science and over the span of a whole season is pushing the outer boundaries of what is realistically possible but G.P has, in the past, delivered some remarkable accuracy with regard to general patterns and their influence on our weather.

However let's not lose sight of the fact that is a forecast and not a statement of fact. If it goes wrong let's give him the space to examine his method and explain why rather than jumping in with hasty criticism and dismissing him as a failed forecaster.

Bear in mind, no matter what happens during the summer, no-one else on here could have done any better other than by chance.

Well put!

1995 was closest I remember and yes it was dry. Water still came out the tap though and I have no doubt it will this year too. We are a long way from stand pipes in the street - we'd need a hot, dry summer followed by a dry winter going into another dry summer for that to happen. Even then - we have much improved infrastructure for water resource management than we did in the 70s.

I for one will enjoy the summer no matter how hot & dry it gets in the same way many enjoyed the extreme cold no matter how many old ladies froze to death/legs got broken on ice/holidays got ruined by snow... Can't change it so no there is no guilt!

I remember 1995 very well (I was only 8 at the time) and we were indeed on standpipes, hose pipe bans, the whole sh'bang. Nothing came out of taps, and I remember the ground being yellow/brown everywhere, the sky crystal clear and it being very hot.

2003 and 2006 were quite long, hot summers for my location...2003 was the hottest on record (I was in Dubai when the 38C was reached), but 2006 saw a several week spell where the daytime temperature did not drop below 28C - the temperature those few weeks was routinely between 31 and 34C with 35-36C reached on a few days (iirc)

Since 2006 however summers have been relatively average. The SE has done a lot better than say the NW, particularly 2009 which IMO was a very good summer for the SE with most weekends delivering temperatures of 24-29C with lengthy sunny skies - few 30-31C spells in there too. Thunderstorms were about average then too.

As for this year, I hope GP is correct and we are in for a hot, dry summer punctuated with thundery spells. Naturally, I feel for the farmers and the effect it will have on them (and our economy potentially)...but then on the other hand, I feel farmers couldn't have done badly in the last few years and that a bad year is on the cards...of course, bucket loads of thunderstorms would assist and as a bi-product, keep me entertained in the process

Edited May 19, 2011 by Harry

[95 Degrees]

I think dry conditions was also one of the factors that helped make the famous August 2003 heatwave so intense. If the Netweather Summer forecast does end up close to the mark, I wouldn't be suprised to see the 38.5C record matched somewhere with a chance of it even tumbling!

Very bold statement indeed! but if it did occur it would likely be in Late July/August as I couldn't see 35+ as early as june happening.

[summer blizzard]

After reveiwing the data, my own alalysis does support the forecast from Glacier Point to a degree although i am becoming increasingly convinced of wet second half of August. I would agree with 'hot and dry' for the summer as a whole although likely not to the degree which is forecast by Glacier Point.

Hottest and driest summer since 2006, yes. Anything spectacular, no.