Summer Forecast - Hot & Dry - Shades Of 1976

[Evening thunder]

For that significant minoroty who don't like droughts and are heat averse,

I'm not too sure it's a 'significant minority' that don't like droughts, but of course more people like warm sunny weather in summer than actually like droughts. For instance I'd like a warm/hot summer with plenty of sunshine but also a supply of thunderstorms and convective downpours to keep the moisture levels up and the plants healthy. A bit like the climate in many continental areas..

On another note, Hmm.. I'm feeling slightly frustrated and needing reassurance.. lol. It seems after the weather could spare us 3 dry sunny warm days, The models have reverted to the 'lets funnel all the rubbish weather over the UK at all cost while the entire of Europe gets endless warm/hot days and some thunderstorms thrown in' mode again after that. Which seems far too common in the summer. The GFS this morning has just found another way of doing that. We are probably shown to be about the coldest place at our latitude looking at the 850's etc which seems rather too common. (of course in the winter we're the mildest)

I may be mis-interpreting things but looking in the June CET thread GP's prediction is above average, but he says watch out for high minima doing the damage in the second half. That to me doesn't sound like a warm/hot summer month that was shown in the summer forecast, it sounds more like some recent months like Aug 08 where cloud and a Tm air flow kept the mean temps up..

Sometimes I feel the urge to move abroad, to actually get some decent summer and winter weather as a norm like most places.

This post may look a bit OTT but I'm a bit frustrated/concerned and felt like posting this somewhere..

Edited June 1, 2011 by Stormmad26

[Costa Del Fal]

I totally agree stormmad it really does seem like were to pay the price for just 3 days nice weather and I too am rather frustrated there is no sign of this good June many predicted. However as it's only the start of the month I shan't get too annoyed yet. Much can happen in a quick turn around so let's wait and see.

[SteveB]

All the rain for the south may be gearing up to arrive 20th June to 03 July, washout Wimbledon, may have to pay for the dry weather, but they do have a centre court roof

Well Wimbledon was glorious last year, and infact those two weeks were probably the best to weeks of the Summer.

So there is every chance as you say this year will probably turn out horrible.

I have a feeling though that it will probably be ok, with variable amounts of cloud, and some decent sunny spells.

[TonyH]

Summers over anyone^^...remember the Netweather forecast was just that- a forecast!

[trisyork]

TWO forecast out- mediocre summer forecast! I like net weathers forecast, on the other hand i like TWO's. Which one is right? theres only one way to find out.....FIGHT!

[Evening thunder]

I totally agree stormmad it really does seem like were to pay the price for just 3 days nice weather and I too am rather frustrated there is no sign of this good June many predicted. However as it's only the start of the month I shan't get too annoyed yet. Much can happen in a quick turn around so let's wait and see.

That is true I seem to get frustrated occasionally recently. Hopefully this will follow the pattern of some of the better summers that haven't really started until later in June. Though I think if the outlook can change for part June, surely it can for July/August. As always nothing is certain. My post seems a bit negative re-reading it now lol, but still a bit frustrating - even Lapland looks like being far warmer than us next week :lol:

I must add that also if June doesn't turn out quite like expected it doesn't necessarily mean GP's forecast is a 'bust' and I think he did suggest some kind of movement of the HP into the Atlantic at first in June.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think GP's forecast still isn't "bust" because if we get the shortwave anchored to the NW (as per GFS/UKMO) rather than the SE (as per ECM) there's always the chance of it being sucked west into the Atlantic promoting southerlies across the British Isles. Note that even 1976 didn't have wall-to-wall high pressure, and there was a northerly outbreak at the end of July 1976 according to the Wetterzentrale archive.

I can identify with Stormmad26's frustration, having been on numerous summer holidays to various parts of France and having been really attracted to the "continental" summer climate. Summers across the British Isles feel somewhat watered-down by comparison.

[rob48]

Thank you TWS for your pragmatism.

For W of W:

http://www.peterboroughtoday.co.uk/news/business_2_17104/farming_fears_over_dry_spell_1_2729163

This is neither a forecast or speculation, it's the situation, now.

Althought the difference that you allege between a forecast and speculation is something I'll have to consider, I'd always regarded them as one and the same.

[The PIT]

Well Joe six pack hasn't realised it's summer yet and I haven't heard anyone say forecast is bust yet. If the ECM and GFS outlooks come off though they may be saying it.

[lukemc]

Hi,

Regarding Stormmads comment were he says that the models seem to suggest that we get all the poor weather next week and all of the rest of Europe are going to be warm and sunny is this really the case? Even parts of Spain seem to be having poor weather at the moment for the time of year - another post that I saw said it might struggle to reach 20C in Ibiza today due to rain. And I think that comes after Spain having quite a wet spring too. The main place in Europe that seems to be having excessive warmth at the moment seems to be part of Eastern Europe - like Poland/Hungary etc. I would also think that parts of Northern France and Benelux could be rather unsettled next week too given thier proximity to the UK, especially near the coasts. I know that in 2007 it was not just unsettled in the UK but it was also unsettled across most of Western Europe - but the likes of Greece roasted in a heatwave. What was 2008 like in comparison - compared to "average" conditions would it be considered a "poor" summer in both the UK and parts of mainland Europe?

Luke

[William of Walworth]

Thank you TWS for your pragmatism.

For W of W:

http://www.peterboro...spell_1_2729163

This is neither a forecast or speculation, it's the situation, now.

Althought the difference that you allege between a forecast and speculation is something I'll have to consider, I'd always regarded them as one and the same.

I'm very aware of how very dry it's become in many parts of the SE already -- my brother lives in Cambridge. I know too why farmers and gardners and others are longing for some more rain.

I lost it a bit a couple of days ago with your previous post though I'm afraid, because you said something the lines of 'so long as people in pub gardens were happy everything would be well with them, and nothing else mattered to them' -- which seemed more than a bit sneery. Unless I misread it.

Generally worth remembering that many people (out there AND on here) really would love GP's forecast to come off -- my talk of some recent summers sticking in the memory as poorish/unsettled -- or at least short of prolonged warm settled spells -- was as background/context to that feeling. Why people long for sunshine and settled is worth remembering and respecting.

But apologies from me anyway of my earlier (late night!!) post was a tad OTT.

The media are understandably running drought-related stories, rightly highlighting the problems if very dry conditions continue over the summer, but it's very much an IF that they will continue. As I said, those articles are not forecasts.

Edited June 1, 2011 by William of Walworth

[Bottesford]

I feel no guilt in longing for a super hot & dry summer. There will always be winners and loosers in any given weather period so feeling guilty for your preference just seems daft when it's something you cannot control.

Out of all the seasons rain is always the most disruptive in summer in so far as ruining peoples leisure plans and outdoor activities so it makes sense that the majority want a dry and at least warm summer. It will be tough on farmers but then surely it means the wholesale price of their goods will rise in line with the reduced supply? It'll be us consumers that will pay at the end of the day.

A good reason to grow your own food as much as possible and get used to running around with the watering can every evening during the drought!

[rob48]

@ William:

No problem. I was a bit sneery really.

I just find it incredibly selfish that someone would hope for a particular type of weather merely to suit their own taste when they know full well it could be catastrophic for the livelihoods and even health, of others.

Bottesford:

The only thing in your post that I agree with is that we cannot control the weather.

You obviously prioritize leisure time and outdoor activities above other people's means of earning a living.

I'd guess you work in an office.

" It will be tough on farmers but then surely it means the wholesale price of their goods will rise in line with the reduced supply?"

Shows how ridiculous your (absence of) logic is.

What does the wholesale price matter if you've nothing to sell?

Crop yields are being decimated already, not just reduced.

Good luck with the watering can I'm giving up on here.

[Bottesford]

A little over the top there rob - certainly I know very little about farming hence posing the question! Surely 100% of the crop yield won't be lost so what remains is worth more? I don't know hence asking the question.

I went to dust bowel East Anglia at the weekend and saw of crops around being irrigated and looking well on it so not everything is dead. I do appreciate not all farmers can do that and that it costs money to do it.

You obviously prioritize leisure time and outdoor activities above other people's means of earning a living

But aren't 'leisure time and outdoor activities' other people's means of earning a living too? A wet summer would have a very adverse affect on different sets of people as well.

Either way it is beyond the control of yours or my wishes...

[mountain shadow]

The forecast is definetly on a sticky wicket.

Apart from tomorrow, Friday and part of Saturday temps will take a plunge with more rain likely in the north west. Little sign of Hot and Dry as yet.

Maybe the second half of June will deliver.

[Alex]

Without sounding selfish the last 4 summers have been good for farmers and poor for tourism, I feel that surely a reverse is needed. sorry farmers but weather can't please everyone.

[Thundery wintry showers]

It feels odd in some ways to see Rob48's rant above as I'm so used to that kind of argument being applied to hoping for snow in spring, and until recently I used to say "people never say that about the desire for hot dry sunny summers", but clearly I was wrong there!

The problem is that almost any kind of weather can damage some people's livelihoods. In winter, a cold and snowy winter may cause considerable transport disruption, kill extra vulnerable people, and damage the UK economy. On the other hand, a mild and moist winter could ruin the Scottish ski season and damage the local economy around Aviemore and some of the locals whose livelihoods depend on a decent income. The "prioritizing leisure time and outdoor activities above other people's means of earning a living" sounds like a derivative of the "we all need to work, but we don't need to enjoy ourselves" line of thinking, which can be used as an argument for dismissing any weather preference for personal gratification as "selfish", it's one of my pet-hate arguments, and Bottesford addressed it effectively anyway- believe it or not, sources of enjoyment keep many people in a job providing them.

If we get a really dry summer I'll be concerned about it but I won't be branding people "selfish" if they choose to enjoy it. If they specifically enjoy the fact that some are suffering because of it, then yes, but if it's just the weather that they're enjoying, then it's a different story.

[ZONE 51]

what would be the best solution is for rains to fall at night.

[ZONE 51]

The 2nd day of summer and shades of 76 are with us in the south at least, this is a drought and it is sunny and warm and there is High pressure!

but im not going to post these comments every 3 days :lol:

[Gavin P]

CFS is predicting a very wet summer across much of France and Spain;

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euPrecMon.gif

If this is correct, it will have a big impact on Netweather prediction of a "summer with shades of 76" for two reasons;

1. Without dry, baked ground across the Continent it will limit the potential for heat to build and build and build over the landmass like it did in 2003 for instance.

2. It suggests pressure will be low across the continent, so any southerlies we do get will likely quickly become unstable with the result being a "three hot days and a thunderstorm" type scenario.

The pressure anomaly looks very weak across N/W and the Atlantic throughout the summer;

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/glbz700Mon.gif

No suggestion of a blocking high within the vicinity.

Added to this we have the models running with a large Greenland High and a trough over N/W Europe well into June

http://yfrog.com/gz51822382j

And at this stage Netweathers LRF is looking increasingly unlikely, I'm afraid.

Edited June 2, 2011 by Gavin P

[Evening thunder]

Indeed if we do get a hot dry summer, I will enjoy the warm evenings outside, being able to do activities which you can't always in the UK, things like going to the beach and not feeling so cold in the water or when you come out, the 'experience' of the heat, maybe..(not actually sure how long/much I'll like it), recording some interesting weather data, etc.

After all, It's better than sitting in a hot stuffy room all day not enjoying the summer with it resulting in exactly the same bad effects on farmers/people?

I will be hoping for some rain and hope there is some decent rain soon, but I'm not going to stop myself enjoying the summer if that doesn't happen. Ideally IMO there would be decent rain in the next 2 weeks from a trough/low over the country before pulling away west, and then a few thunderstorms or rain events scattered through the summer.

Edit: I've heard the CFS changes nearly as much as the GFS? Though I can't actually see what they show as my PC won't open the top two links in Gavin P's post.

Edited June 2, 2011 by Stormmad26

[Gavin P]

Links should be working OK now.

[johnholmes]

Just a note of caution re CFS

If you look at it on a daily basis you will notice that its predictions be it for 1 month or 6 months will vary almost as much as the GFS runs 4x daily.

It obviously can be used but it needs a lot of care when using it.

No single forecast tool is of any use on its own. That is true for short day to day forecasting or for longer work.

An understanding, and a deep one at that, for LRF work such as GP (Stewart) is certainly needed to produce any meaningful forecast. That goes for the 6-30 day Met O output or for the longer lrf work such as some web sites including our own at Net Weather produce.

Commenting on the output, much as I can understand the desire to do so, before the forecast has really got running, be that the 6-30 day or the summer prediction by any site, is a bit pointless. Quite often as well the forecasts are taken out of context, or little bits that suit the poster are used to try and illustrate, usually its failure, less often its success.

end of jh sermon

[Gavin P]

Just a note of caution re CFS

If you look at it on a daily basis you will notice that its predictions be it for 1 month or 6 months will vary almost as much as the GFS runs 4x daily.

It obviously can be used but it needs a lot of care when using it.

No single forecast tool is of any use on its own. That is true for short day to day forecasting or for longer work.

An understanding, and a deep one at that, for LRF work such as GP (Stewart) is certainly needed to produce any meaningful forecast. That goes for the 6-30 day Met O output or for the longer lrf work such as some web sites including our own at Net Weather produce.

Commenting on the output, much as I can understand the desire to do so, before the forecast has really got running, be that the 6-30 day or the summer prediction by any site, is a bit pointless. Quite often as well the forecasts are taken out of context, or little bits that suit the poster are used to try and illustrate, usually its failure, less often its success.

end of jh sermon

John, the temperature and rainfall anomalies can change quite regularly, but the CFS pressure anomalies are very good up to three months out, I've found. For the past three winters CFS has had the basic pressure set up quite well honed by September/October and has generally kept with the trend throughout.

On these forecast pressure anomalies;

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/glbz700Mon.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/glbz200Mon.gif

I can't see anything really that would suggest a summer out of the ordinary?

Now I'm not saying the "shades of 76" forecast won't come off, but at this stage it does look to be getting off to a rather shaky start, IMO.

As ever time will tell.

Edited June 2, 2011 by Gavin P

[johnholmes]

Yes pressure charts are usually more accurate than the precip charts. Indeed the upper air charts are even more accurate and generally less liable to apparently random changes that we sometimes see in the models.