Summer Forecast - Hot & Dry - Shades Of 1976

[Evening thunder]

Links should be working OK now.

Ah thanks for that, interesting.

I notice 1995 had a ridge in the Atlantic in the 1st half of June though looking at the archives it didn't seem to have a Greenland high, but who knows what that will mean if anything.

On a different note the forecast for here doesn't look too shabby over the next 5 days.

[Summer Sun]

I think people in Scotland and Ireland would change that headline of this topic to Summer Forecast - Wet & Cool - Shades Of previous summers

What people should do is look at the met office site for how the summer of 1976 started

This was the UK’s hottest summer on record, with temperatures between June and August averaging 17.8C. Starting in East Anglia during June, the heatwave spread north and west to affect much of mainland Britain. The hottest period occurred between 23rd June and 7th July, when the temperature topped 32C (90F) every day at one or more stations. 11 such days were observed in Cheltenham, where the mercury reached 35.9C on 3rd July, the highest temperature recorded during the heatwave.

And 2003

http://www.metoffice.../2003/june.html

http://www.metoffice.../2003/july.html

http://www.metoffice...003/august.html - Note August was the hottest month in 2003.

Edited June 2, 2011 by Gavin D

[Gavin P]

Ah thanks for that, interesting.

I notice 1995 had a ridge in the Atlantic in the 1st half of June though looking at the archives it didn't seem to have a Greenland high, but who knows what that will mean if anything.

On a different note the forecast for here doesn't look too shabby over the next 5 days.

Yeah, 1995 had a very dull and cool spell in the first half of June with a northerly wind resulting from an Atlantic ridge. Pressure remained relatively low throughout over Greenland though.

However, it does highlight that June, particularly early June, can be very differant to the overall summer pattern. Late June and early July will be the critical period for the Netweather forecast, I feel.

Edited June 2, 2011 by Gavin P

[Thundery wintry showers]

The spell 7th-15th June 1995 started off with a day of sunshine and scattered sharp showers with local thunder, but as the period wore on, we saw increasingly modified, stable air from the NE which resulted in cold cloudy weather with shallow convection and bits and pieces of drizzle, and in parts of East Anglia the sun shone for less than 10 hours during the period 8th-15th.

I think the airmass source plays a major part in what weather we get from a northerly at this time of year, and typically, if it's due north or west of due north, the result still tends to be sunshine and showers (and, if high pressure is close by, not many showers). It's the modified stuff from the NE that stabilises the airmass and replaces the scattered convective cloud with layers of stratus/stratocumulus, as the convective cloud hits an inversion and spreads out.

[ZONE 51]

i have discovered this interesting document, its along read and ive not yet been through it all just yet!

Compagnucci-Agosta-AMS-2006.pdf

TITLE-CHANGE IN TELECONNECTION BETWEEN CENTRAL-WEST ARGENTINA SUMMER

PRECIPTATION AND THE ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION IN THE 70s

quote"In the austral summer 1976/77, the

climate system underwent a relevant transition

evidenced by a shift towards warming in the

mean conditions of the sea surface

temperatures (SSTs) in the equatorial central

Pacific (Huang et al. 2005). The effects on the

climate were soon noted after the event

(Namias 1978) but the true climatic

significance could not be thoroughly

understood until the 1990s. Several studies.......

[Summer Sun]

I'm begining to fear our summer is going to be one just like 2007 and no where near 1976

[William of Walworth]

I'm fearing it too Gavin. I know, rationaly speaking, that it's pretty difficult to predict with any accuracy at all at this very early stage, what the second half of June** will be like.

**'Second half' meaning 18-30 June, at least from my selfish POV/179,000 other Someret going people's selfish POV!!!

But the current talk in the Model Output Discussion thread, and here as well to an extent, is worrying me hugely. Albeit probably irrationally/paranoidly. I've had a few doubts for some time that GP's predictions would verify all that soon, but as every Glastonbury year, my biggest fear is a washout in the SW in late June. OK not too many signs of a really active train of low presure systems from the Atlantic YET, but very recent talk in the MOD thread of Greenland Highs and stubbornly immobile mid Atlantic Highs coupled with people just starting to mention refired up Atlantic influence again, is giving me serious jitters

That said, I think some are overplaying the pessimism, overapplying the 'certainty' -- according to some! -- of negative prospects. Call that latter thought hopecasting maybe, but people should be more cautious than some are able, againstf writing off the whole of the month ahead on the back of an indifferent to poor outlook over the next week.

Us warm and settled weather lovers are on occasion criticised in the MOD thread, sometimes rightly, for clutching at hopeful FI straws, but those who look into FI and see no signs of anything except lack of of summer there, should also take a look at themselves. Because they underestimate possibilities of unpredicted or underpredicted changearounds.

Right now though the model runs displease me greatly , so when I come back after the weekend I want to see noticeable changes afoot!

Edited June 3, 2011 by William of Walworth

[Coast]

Second driest spring since 1910, says Met Office. Drought fears in parts of UK as warm weather expected to continue into early summer, threatening diminished harvests

Parts of the UK have enjoyed one of the warmest and driest springs for more than 100 years, according to the Met Office. But while the south and east of Britain experienced balmy temperatures, places further north and east remained wet. For the weekend, forecasters predicted sunshine and temperatures in the mid-20s celsius.

Across the whole of England and Wales, it was the second driest spring since 1910 and the driest spring since 1990. Central England experienced an average temperature of 10.3C (50.5F), the highest since monthly records began in 1659. The temperature for the whole of Britain was 9.2C (48.6F), the highest since 1910, the Met Office said. The previous top figure was in 2007 when the average was 9.05C (48.3F).

Overall, England and Wales had only 45% of the long-term average rainfall for March, April and May. But East Anglia had only 21% of the long-term average rainfall – giving the area its driest spring for 101 years. This comes on top of the warmest, driest March and April recorded in England and Wales in more than 50 years.

Britain's exceptionally dry and hot spring is set to continue well into June, providing little relief for farmers especially in southern England and East Anglia. Provisional rainfall figures from the Environment Agency for May suggest that while the north and the Midlands have had much-needed showers, East Anglia has only had 20% of average rainfall and central, south-east and south-west England between 41% and 55% of average. "River flows remain low, except in north England and north Wales. River flows in south-west England, the Midlands, south-east Wales, parts of East Anglia and Kent are particularly low", said the agency in a statement. "Throughout most of June, rainfall amounts look likely to continue to be below average across the UK, especially in the south, where they will probably stay well below average", said the Met Office.

In May, the public sector research body, the Centre for Hydrology and Ecology, reported soils were some of the driest seen in England and Wales for at least 50 years. "The exceptional aridity of the early spring, following a relatively dry 2010, has resulted in agricultural and hydrological drought conditions affecting large parts of southern Britain," it said in a statement. Farmers in East Anglia are expecting harvests to be 25% down on normal yields, but the dry, warm weather has benefited many fruit growers who have been able to harvest early. The British strawberry season started nearly two weeks earlier than usual. The early start to the season is also set to benefit British wine growers.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2011/jun/02/more-sun-june-met-office

[devonhammer]

I'm fearing it too Gavin. I know, rationaly speaking, that it's pretty difficult to predict with any accuracy at all at this very early stage, what the second half of June** will be like.

**'Second half' meaning 18-30 June, at least from my selfish POV/179,000 other Someret going people's selfish POV!!!

Remember that last year the forecasts for Glastonbury were all over the place at this stage. I think we got too optimistic from GP's prediction and we should forget that and just accept that FI forecasts are just that.

[Kentish Kiwi]

I'm honestly not too worried about the summer as a whole yet. I get the feeling some perspective is needed... We're only 3 days into June and the models are only reliable out to around 5-7 days and useful as a rough guide out to possibly 2 weeks at a push. There's still plenty of time for a change to the general pattern and personally I'll be looking out for this 'renewed westerly wind burst' that GP expects will occur around mid-June, which he claims will 'send the summer into overdrive' (whatever that means - but it sounds positive for heat/settled weather). Until that time passes, say the 20th of June, and if I haven't heard or seen of any developments in regards to this, I won't be getting too worried.

Plenty of good summers start off poor in June and in many respects it's a good sign, I get the feeling that if we were having a sustained spell of sunshine and heat now, member would be moaning and worrying about how it 'has to break down eventually' and that it's a bad sign for July etc etc etc. It hasn't even been that bad at all from what I've experienced but that's possibly because we in the SE & EA have been having the best of the conditions (as usual).

Also, it's surely far too premature to start discussing whether GP's forecast is 'bust', it's possible that the warmth and settled conditions he hinted at have simply been delayed further than was expected (it is a LRF after all so is never going to be completely accurate) but there's still plenty of time for things to improve and for June to turn out warmer & sunnier than average. Lets wait until the month is over before we start making judgments and evaluations.

Edited June 3, 2011 by Kentish Kiwi

[SP1986]

Agreed KK, even if we take the most pessimistic view of it, it still leaves most of July (and August), in which we have no idea how that will turn out. So really we have at least two months for this predicted warmth to occur (and even then that's pushing the pessimism barrier)

[SteveB]

I have a feeling July & August will turn out hot & sunny as per GP's forecast.

It has been a long time since we have had a decent second half to Summer, maybe we will have to put up with a average June to get that good July/August.

[lukemc]

Hi,

I am wondering why a Greenland High is such bad news for good weather in the summer months in the UK? Can anyone explain? I can certainly see how it can make us cooler as we have a HP out to our east, and as HP moves clockwise in the Northern Hemisphere it is likely to bring Northerly winds over the UK on its eastern flank, but what I don't get is how it can potentially lead to an unsettled, wet pattern for the UK in the summer months - I would think that that would more likely be the result of a zonal pattern with lows steaming in of the Atlantic on a Southerly tracking jet so just looking for a bit of info on why everyone says Greenland high in summer=poor/unsettled weather. I would have thought that cool and dry weather would more likely be the outcome with the HP anchored out west. I have seen references to 2007 on here this morning, but wasn't that caused by low moving depressions moving in from the Atlantic on a southerly tracking jet rather than any Greenland HP?

I am an optimistic person, and I do think this summer will turn out rather good in the end but what I do find depressing is coming onto the site sometimes to find no prospect of any warm or settled conditions in the near future or posts saying "unsettled" or "very unsettled" or "very poor model output this morning etc.". Yes, I know we live in the UK but at least in the North West of England I think we have had our fair share of "poor" summers recently so I do think that we are due at least a drier than average summer. What I don't like is having to wear a coat almost every day in the summer months, not because it is too cold but because of the threat of rain. Sometimes I have read comments about nature "balancing itself out" specifically in relation to the dry spring that we have just had and we are going to get a wet summer etc. or we are going to pay for this nice weather in the summer etc. - but at least in the North wouldn't that also be true of the last few summers being poor and nature balancing itself out by giving us a good one! One of the fustrating things is that some of the recent model output (but my no means all) seems to want to prove those who said in April that we are using up our quota of High Pressure and lovely weather now right! I am also wondering why the models want to deteriorate things so quickly is it something to do with the current teleconnections/upstream signals at present and will something need to change upstream to give us a proper warm/sunny outlook? I have booked some days off work near the end of June and I am really hoping they will be nice do you think things could have changed for the better by then?

Luke

[Summer Sun]

I am thinking the end of June we will see an improvement slowly from the south wich will last into July, I do think that this year just for a change we will see our best weather in July and August, I am sure anyone would take that rather than just June as per every year back to 2006 (I stand to be corrected on that as I can't remember for sure)

[Geordiesnow]

I'm begining to fear our summer is going to be one just like 2007 and no where near 1976

Ha'way Gavin, we are only in the 3rd day of summer and its currently fantastic outthere, the outlook on the models is not good there is no getting away from that but what other reasons apart from a poor outlook on the models that would suggest we are heading for a summer like 2007?

I do think having a title of "shades of 76" is perhaps not the best idea in all honesty because it would just hype people up and they are expecting every model and chart to bring hot and humid conditions constantly and we all should know that this just does not happen. Imagine if the title for the winter forecast had said shades of 62/63 then the hype will be even greater. If the forecast is wrong, its wrong but at least in GP's defence at least he put a technical analysis within his prediction and its not just pure guesswork.

Some People on this forum for some reason write a season off far too quickly i'm afraid whether its summer and winter, there is a reason why TV weather forecasters don't like going beyond 72 hours when weather forecasting.

[Summer Sun]

See my above post following the met offices outlook and the models i have revised what i said this morning

[The PIT]

Well GFS and ECM are hovering and signs are that June may not go to plan. However Summer is June July and August so plenty of time yet.

[xerxes]

I issued a summer forecast elsewhere that may already be well off the mark if current thinking verifies. I hoped we may avoid the European Monsoon this year but the increased possibilities of Northern blocking and slack low pressure over continental Europe look like the makings of a lot of precipitation for parts of the UK at various points this June.....and certainly not that warm. My hope is that we follow a 1997 style pattern with a hot August although hot spells in that month are pretty damn rare nowadays

[SussexmarkyMark]

Well GFS and ECM are hovering and signs are that June may not go to plan. However Summer is June July and August so plenty of time yet.

Whilst summer lasts three months, the summer forecast mentions the first part of summer being favoured for the best weather:

"Within the summer, we expect the core of the hot and settled weather to occur during June and July, particularly June which we think will be very pleasant with high pressure in charge across much of western Europe and the UK."

If this is the core of the hot weather ( a three day warm snap), then I dread to think what they are expecting August to be like !

[Gavin P]

Hi,

I am wondering why a Greenland High is such bad news for good weather in the summer months in the UK? Can anyone explain?

Basically its part of natures balancing act. The Greenland High deflects the jet stream south and with the jet stream often comes low pressure. Of course the jet stream in summer is usually quite sluggish, so we often spend an extended period stuck under a cool trough - In summer weeks or even months can go by without the pattern really changing.

If this verifys;

http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/Recm2161.gif

I would say the minimum we're looking at to break out of it would be two weeks.

[Eugene]

Yes gavin looks like bad news for those hot June forecasters as slack LP over us/near us with HP to our northwest/north are very stubborn to get out of, will need quite a big shift to get a hot June now, only hope is for everything to back west further and import some warm air from the continent, problem then is it would most likely be slack still over the UK so would be very wet, dangerous to go on just OP runs too as some ensemble members dont trend towards backing westwards with LP systems over the UK around the T+216 hrs mark.

Edited June 3, 2011 by Eugene

[rob48]

"Within the summer, we expect the core of the hot and settled weather to occur during June and July, particularly June which we think will be very pleasant with high pressure in charge across much of western Europe and the UK."

particularly June

which the models seem to suggest has two weeks of mixed/changeable weather ahead.

Liking it so far.

[Richie V]

I respect the netweather forecast team very very much but I am not convinced the summer forecast is anywhere near the mark

I'm off for some late fish and chips then I'll skick my neck on the line and produce my own june - august forecast. LRF'ing is not easy, granted.... but this time round I feel could have been done better. Sorry if this sounds brusk and I sincerely mean no offence to the LRF'ers at netweather!

[lukemc]

Basically its part of natures balancing act. The Greenland High deflects the jet stream south and with the jet stream often comes low pressure. Of course the jet stream in summer is usually quite sluggish, so we often spend an extended period stuck under a cool trough - In summer weeks or even months can go by without the pattern really changing.

If this verifys;

http://www.wzkarten3...cs/Recm2161.gif

I would say the minimum we're looking at to break out of it would be two weeks.

Hi Gavin,

Thanks for the info - I am starting to see the picture more now and it seems to be that the fact that our weather can get "stuck in a rut" in the summer rather than at other times of year may have been a factor that contributed to poor summers like 2007 etc. with a sluggish jetstream that becomes "stuck" over us.

But I personally don't think the pattern that we are going into is going to be as stubborn as some on here think - remember we are only talking about computer models here they are not playing god and can only accurately predict the weather out to a few days or so there is plenty of time for things to change for the better. An example would be that if the Netweather forum had been around in 1990 (at this time of year) I am sure there would have been the doom mongers screaming out "summer is over" or "this summer is going to be very poor" or "another 1985/88 type summer" - as 1988 would have been the latest example of a summer that could have been considered poor back then. This was because the June in 1990 was quite wet/poor but then came along the improvement in July which cumulated in that record breaking heatwave in late July/early August which result in the hottest temperature recorded in the UK before 2003. So if we got a 1990 type summer which is still certainly a possibility I am sure GP's forecast would be given a good appraisal with just the timing considered to be a bit out as the Netweather forecast says that the best of the weather to be in June and July with a more average August.

What I would say however is that if we do get a 2007/08 type summer we will need to look at why it happened in more detail and look to see at why our weather patterns in Summer have changed for the worse - because as I have said it is quite rare even in this country to get 5 wetter than average summers in a row (I think - can anyone tell me if 2009 and 2010 were above average rainfall for the UK as a whole?) - it didn't even happen in the 1980s with the run of wet summers then - 1985-1988 and then we had the good summer of 1989. Even despite that I do think we are unlikely to get another 2007 type summer at least as far as the extreme rainfall and flooding is concerned - I think that the extreme rainfall and flooding we saw in 2007 was quite rare and unprecedented - I think that the rainfall over England that we saw in 2007 is as rare and extreme as the extreme heat we saw in 2003 and therefore I would say we are just as likely to get another 2003 type heatwave as 2007 type flooding.

Luke

[Summer Sun]

I think GP is needed can he offer us any hope for the second half of June, the next 10 day's or so ain't looking to summery still in any decent sunny spells it should feel pleasant