Summer Forecast - Hot & Dry - Shades Of 1976

[ZONE 51]

summer is to set in after some alterations in the pattern, its just moving things around a bit, shifting a ridge here and a trough there, we can not get 3 months of the same weather? we have summer weather right now and im happy!! its got off to a great start, and if the rains and storms set in late weekend and next week then excellent! i don't think sudden extreme rains to stop the drought would do much good-in the long term yes, but it would flash flood especially due to hard ground and would not soak up, and the torrential rains would wash dusty soil away, not sure if many would agree on that, but as exciting as flash intense rains are(very exciting for me) they do cause problems. so the best way to solve the drought would be for many nights of moderate to heavy but persistant rain with thunderstorms-giving amazing displays of course ,and night rains far less evapouration would take place in the dry bits. then when we get the heat and dry conditions again then we would not have to worry about worsening drought and also forest fires.

Edited June 4, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[mushymanrob]

its because im so sure of this turning up!

well it hasnt! :lol: i said you were celebrating too soon, and its looking most likely that you were. the period of weather you were celebrating in that forecast isnt going to happen IF the current models are correct. the period was june 7th-17th.. the 7th is 3 days away and there no sign of that forecast you were celebrating becoming reality. in fact, as things stand, theres great doubt over this nw/gp's forecast becoming reality. we are being told to watch for pressure dropping west of greenland, theres no sign of it yet... the models are currently suggesting a long term block, to our west and north, no sign of a real trough to our west and euro high to our east (although europe does look hot and dry... maybe the synoptic prediction IS correct but just 1000 miles eastward).

i mean no disrespect to anybody, especially gp/nw forecast team, im just urging against premature celebration because it leads to disappointment.

however, its only june 4th, there is plenty of time for warmer synoptics to evolve and prove gp/nw right, its just that atm theres no sign of it starting within a timeframe that is ought to be...

[Glaswegianblizzard]

Lets be honest, does any of this forecast actually apply to Scotland? Our summer was yesterday!

[Gavin P]

The models today seem to be moving away from that extensive and prolonged greenland blocking we've been seeing predicted in recent days.

It *might* soon be game on for the Netweather summer forecast?

Edited June 4, 2011 by Gavin P

[Summer Sun]

The models today seem to be moving away from that extensive and prolonged Greenland blocking we've been seeing predicted in recent days.

It *might* soon be game on for the Netweather summer forecast?

This afternoon's GFS update offers no hope of a warm up like was shown this morning cool weather right out to T +168 hours for all the UK many twists and turns to come yet though, keep faith

[ZONE 51]

well it hasnt! :lol:

i know its a bit bouncy in the models, but we have just had a few perfect summer days, that is a good start, trying to keep upwith the model outputs changes is like snail keeping up with an f1 car stuck in 1st gear, i have confidence in a big change to the models soon, teleconnections had indicated for june a fine hot period of weather(high) after a cooler spell that follows a hot spell(just had) i can't answer the question is it going to be 90f, but i can say after the next cool spell it warms up and becomes dry, with hot weather just across the lake, it won't take to much to bring this over our side, i have already said several times a verywarm-hot and mostly dry summer is to come, just the far north seeing spells of cooler and wetter weather but sunny weather and heat getting up there at times to, the south east and east anglia i cannot see weatther systems as the main source of rain, but rain from thundery downpours and tstorms, but its the dry weather that i see is likely to remain a problem for the south at least. Edited June 5, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Nigerian Prince]

So, are we going to have a summer like 1976, well if I was a betting man , ill put a wager on this summer not being anything like 1976,(mind you my sweat corn hot peppers and tomatoes could do with a summer like 1976, but not my potatoes ,so we cant all win in life ) After a record breaking cold December and a record breaking dry March, and record breaking April, its only a very brave person who can forecast months ahead, let alone get it right, I myself made a forecast after a very easterly April, that May will be an easterly dominated month , well as you all know it was dominated by winds from the west , and the high pressure, that normally sits to the North off Scotland was no where to be seen, not a common pattern at that time of the year. So you may ask me what is my forecast for the rest of the summer, well ill say, there will be a mixture of sunshine showers, mixed with hot spells, cool spell, and normal spells of weather , there will be periods of rain and periods with out rain, there will be no snow in the South of Engalnd in July and August , or September,that way ,I m more likely to be right

.

gender male location Battersea London .

[Rollo]

So, are we going to have a summer like 1976, well if I was a betting man , ill put a wager on this summer not being anything like 1976,(mind you my sweat corn hot peppers and tomatoes could do with a summer like 1976, but not my potatoes ,so we cant all win in life ) After a record breaking cold December and a record breaking dry March, and record breaking April, its only a very brave person who can forecast months ahead, let alone get it right, I myself made a forecast after a very easterly April, that May will be an easterly dominated month , well as you all know it was dominated by winds from the west , and the high pressure, that normally sits to the North off Scotland was no where to be seen, not a common pattern at that time of the year. So you may ask me what is my forecast for the rest of the summer, well ill say, there will be a mixture of sunshine showers, mixed with hot spells, cool spell, and normal spells of weather , there will be periods of rain and periods with out rain, there will be no snow in the South of Engalnd in July and August , or September,that way ,I m more likely to be right

.

gender male location Battersea London .

A nice Tongue in the cheek letter and tolu may well be right but Glacier Point's predictions have a great track record and it would be comforting on this dull day in the North East to believe that July and August will be summery.I do agree though tat a 1976 summer is unlikely.

[Kentish Kiwi]

A nice Tongue in the cheek letter and tolu may well be right but Glacier Point's predictions have a great track record and it would be comforting on this dull day in the North East to believe that July and August will be summery. I do agree though tat a 1976 summer is unlikely.

Of course it's unlikely. It's very unlikely in fact, but it's very unlikely every year. 1976 was a truly exceptional summer and by its nature is extremely rare... GP has only suggested 'shades of 1976' - what this means exactly is up for interpretation, but it most certainly does not mean he expects this year to be a repeat of that famous summer.

[rob48]

I hope this forecast is correct, just think what it will do for the tourism.

Ah yes, the much vaunted benefit of a scorching summer on the tourism:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/jun/05/drought-farming-caroline-spelman-uk

Amongst all the bad news and negative impact of a hot dry summer, note the penultimate papragraph:

"Concern is growing across Europe that the drought will be disastrous for economies, affecting tourism, electricity supplies and food prices."

Hard to imagine why some people are embracing this terrible situation.

[Kentish Kiwi]

Ah yes, the much vaunted benefit of a scorching summer on the tourism:

http://www.guardian....line-spelman-uk

Amongst all the bad news and negative impact of a hot dry summer, note the penultimate papragraph:

"Concern is growing across Europe that the drought will be disastrous for economies, affecting tourism, electricity supplies and food prices."

Hard to imagine why some people are embracing this terrible situation.

Uhh, probably because people enjoy warm, sunny, dry and settled weather? Hard to imagine how that isn't obvious.

I'm really not sure how good weather in the summer over north-west Europe could negatively effect tourism but if you're able to provide an explanation I'd be fascinated to hear it.

[Summer Sun]

Ah yes, the much vaunted benefit of a scorching summer on the tourism:

http://www.guardian....line-spelman-uk

Amongst all the bad news and negative impact of a hot dry summer, note the penultimate papragraph:

"Concern is growing across Europe that the drought will be disastrous for economies, affecting tourism, electricity supplies and food prices."

Hard to imagine why some people are embracing this terrible situation.

I made that statment ages ago and since then things have got worse there WILL be rain overnight and tomorrow in the south east but it won't be enough if as the models are showing there is another hot spell starting in Just over a weeks time.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Hard to imagine why some people are embracing this terrible situation.

I can think of myriad reasons why, including the fact that many people find hot dry sunny weather more conducive to outdoor activities, particularly in northern and coastal parts of Britain where it is often too cold and/or too dull/damp to spend time outdoors in the evenings, and the fact that most people aren't fully aware of the disadvantages of persistence of hot dry weather. Also, that article is focusing on the likely negative impacts and ignoring the positive ones- I don't see anything wrong with the article itself (it's basically warning of the problems that could arise if the drought persists) but I do see a lot wrong with suggesting that it gives a representative summary of the pros and cons.

I'll have to remember not to play the "they don't say this about hot dry summers" card when I get chided for hoping for sunshine and snow showers on the wrong side of the 1st March or hoping for heavy showers and thunder on my birthday in future!

I think it's fair enough being concerned about the drought but I don't like the "making people feel guilty for wanting hot dry weather" aspect (even though it doesn't apply to my own preferences in this particular instance).

[rob48]

Uhh, probably because people enjoy warm, sunny, dry and settled weather? Hard to imagine how that isn't obvious.

All of them, irrespective of the consequences?

I'm really not sure how good weather in the summer over north-west Europe could negatively effect tourism but if you're able to provide an explanation I'd be fascinated to hear it.

I'm just highlighting what the Guardian's environment editor is reporting. Perhaps you should challenge his sources.

I made that statment ages ago and since then things have got worse there WILL be rain overnight and tomorrow in the south east but it won't be enough if as the models are showing there is another hot spell starting in Just over a weeks time.

Well, two weeks at least.

However, the claimed benefit for tourism then was as sound as it is now and the LRF hasn't changed, so I'm unable to understand your point.

[weather12]

Of course it's unlikely. It's very unlikely in fact, but it's very unlikely every year. 1976 was a truly exceptional summer and by its nature is extremely rare... GP has only suggested 'shades of 1976' - what this means exactly is up for interpretation, but it most certainly does not mean he expects this year to be a repeat of that famous summer.

Do we really want weather forecasts where members of the public have a different interpretation of them... in my opinion of course not! I say stick your neck on the line and stop sitting on the fence!

Members of the public want to know exactly whats going to happen, they're not weather forecasters, they dont understand.

[Methuselah]

Do we really want weather forecasts where members of the public have a different interpretation of them... in my opinion of course not! I say stick your neck on the line and stop sitting on the fence!

Members of the public want to know exactly whats going to happen, they're not weather forecasters, they dont understand.

Fair question, W12...

But what about the fact that each individual's understanding of the subject (not to mention their respective facilities with grammar and semantics) means just that:

one forecast + (different peeps with different degrees of comprehension/perception) --> different interpretations?

Does that make any sense at all?? :blush: :help:

[weather12]

Fair question, W12...

But what about the fact that each individual's understanding of the subject (not to mention their respective facilities with grammar and semantics) means just that:

one forecast + (different peeps with different degrees of comprehension/perception) --> different interpretations?

Does that make any sense at all?? :blush: :help:

I can see where you are coming from... (i think!).

For me, it's just all very vague and misleading to the public, as i've said before in previous threads before they were censored and shut down :-s

I just believe all the facts should be layed down on the table, not in this airy fairy way that holds no substence.

[AderynCoch]

Do we really want weather forecasts where members of the public have a different interpretation of them... in my opinion of course not! I say stick your neck on the line and stop sitting on the fence!

Members of the public want to know exactly whats going to happen, they're not weather forecasters, they dont understand.

So on one thread you accuse Netweather of sensationalism with their forecast and now you accuse them of sitting on the fence. Why do I get the feeling this is a lose-lose situation?

And if members of the public (or this forum for that matter) want to know exactly what's going to happen over the course of three months - tough. Long-range forecasts are nowhere near advanced enough to nail the specifics (though one day perhaps), and whilst this remains the case their main purpose should be to experiment with certain methods and determine how useful and reliable they are for the sake of improvement. If you decide to plan your activities around a long-range forecast, you deserve no sympathy if things go wrong.

[weather12]

So on one thread you accuse Netweather of sensationalism with their forecast and now you accuse them of sitting on the fence. Why do I get the feeling this is a lose-lose situation?

And if members of the public (or this forum for that matter) want to know exactly what's going to happen over the course of three months - tough. Long-range forecasts are nowhere near advanced enough to nail the specifics (though one day perhaps), and whilst this remains the case their main purpose should be to experiment with certain methods and determine how useful and reliable they are for the sake of improvement. If you decide to plan your activities around a long-range forecast, you deserve no sympathy if things go wrong.

But that's what im saying... i know not to trust long range forecasting in terms of planning my summer activites... but the public dont!

This is why weather forecasters get it in the neck, because the public read into these grand headlines, for example 'shades of 1976', then when it never occurs, the finger points at 'weather forecasters' in general.

Long range forecasts should be kept in the background where they can tried and tested.

As i've said before... in terms of the netweather forecast, its a sensationalist headline with a vague forecast written within. All credit to them for doing it (if they want to try, fair enough), but I stick to my guns on this one.

[Harry]

But that's what im saying... i know not to trust long range forecasting in terms of planning my summer activites... but the public dont!

This is why weather forecasters get it in the neck, because the public read into these grand headlines, for example 'shades of 1976', then when it never occurs, the finger points at 'weather forecasters' in general.

Long range forecasts should be kept in the background where they can tried and tested.

As i've said before... in terms of the netweather forecast, its a sensationalist headline with a vague forecast written within. All credit to them for doing it (if they want to try, fair enough), but I stick to my guns on this one.

The models did (still do as far as I am aware) show marked resemblances with the start of the summer of 1976.

I don't think Netweather nor anybody else should be discouraged from shouting about it because of the naivety of the general public.

The press are the real rampers of such messages anyway - perhaps your reservations should be aimed at the ignorance of the press and their eagerness to hyperbole, rather than those who simply make the observations.

[UV-RAY]

If I was a betting man I would say the odds on a 1976 type summer coming off are 100/1. I expect summer to be similar to the previous 3, with Northern Blocking in place for much of the summer, though last years wasn't too bad.

[Coast]

in terms of the netweather forecast, its a sensationalist headline with a vague forecast written within.

You are joking right?

I'd hardly call it vague, when Stuart has covered many of the reasons behind the forecast all illustrated with data + charts and period breakdowns of what to expect when. Or am I not reading the same forecast?

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=summer-forecast;sess=

[Radiating Dendrite]

Maybe he expects a day by day account of the next three months?

[weather12]

Maybe he expects a day by day account of the next three months?

Ahhh apologies, I havent seen the breakdown forecast before... i'll read it and make comments as the weeks progress.

[jethro]

But that's what im saying... i know not to trust long range forecasting in terms of planning my summer activites... but the public dont!

This is why weather forecasters get it in the neck, because the public read into these grand headlines, for example 'shades of 1976', then when it never occurs, the finger points at 'weather forecasters' in general.

Long range forecasts should be kept in the background where they can tried and tested.

As i've said before... in terms of the netweather forecast, its a sensationalist headline with a vague forecast written within. All credit to them for doing it (if they want to try, fair enough), but I stick to my guns on this one.

Well I'm a member of the public and I know not to trust them. I may be a member on here but anyone who regularly goes in the model thread will testify, I know nothing about forecasts or model watching.

To be honest, I've yet to meet any one who takes any forecast as gospel, whether that be long term or daily, the general public know and accept the weather will do what it wants to do and all forecasts are just a general idea of what to expect, not set in stone predictions.