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Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)

Tuesday - the 18z NAE shows showers or heavy showers breaking out in many areas(some places staying dry) with a risk of these being torrential and thundery in the SouthEast and East Anglia and maybe the East Midlands.

Later in Northwest and West Scotland from late evening heavy rain spreads in, this lasting overnight(see charts below) this heavy rain moving across all of Scotland overnight tonight-Tuesday.

NAE 18z - for Tuesday

6am - 12pm

post-11361-0-41055700-1306808695_thumb.g

12pm - 6pm

post-11361-0-81110900-1306808584_thumb.g

6pm - 12am

post-11361-0-77732900-1306808574_thumb.g

There may be slight changes with the next model update.

Edited by ElectricSnowStorm
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Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)

Wednesday(today)

Rain North West Scotland, likely to be wet all day with heavy rain into the night, clearing by thursday.

NAE - 6am -12pm

post-11361-0-76526800-1306897565_thumb.g

- 12pm - 6pm

post-11361-0-15956200-1306897568_thumb.g

Dry everywhere else today.

Thursday dry everywhere.

UKMO - Thursday surface pressure

post-11361-0-99688100-1306897825_thumb.g

Edited by ElectricSnowStorm
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Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)

11060212_2_0112.gif

DRY everywhere today(thursday) sunny and warm, even very warm in many areas! High pressure in charge now.

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Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)

GFS not the update in yet this is 18z

ukprec.pngsunday afternoon..with NAE showing activity up to 12pm,11060512_2_0418.gif

and also activity through most of day, it looks like its across N-Ireland and central west/central south England highest risk of downpours

11060515_2_0418.gif

could get very interesting down east side/se sunday night..

look at this NAE chart below,

11060603_2_0418.gif

FLOODING RISK IN AREAS OF DOWNPOURS ON SUNDAY- BE ALERT TO NORTHERN IRELAND A LARGE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL DUE HERE ON SUNDAY-ALSO MET OFFICE WARNING OUT-

http://www.metoffice...t_warnings.html

NAE for sunday morning- afternoon -evening below

11060512_0418.gif11060518_0418.gif

Edited by ElectricSnowStorm
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Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)

NAE 00z just in...all i can say for the south is its a big change for tonight, mass amount of rain-thundery potentially, its moved the stuff from the east more west, just look at that area of blue over the south tonight!!

11060606_2_0500.gifpost-11361-0-56482100-1307247099_thumb.gpost-11361-0-98678400-1307247102_thumb.gpost-11361-0-02200200-1307247128_thumb.g

risk areas for flooding as mentioned in post above is - Northern Ireland, parts of southern england-especially central south and central sw by the looks of it., and then tonight southern england thundery rain, and also it seems that rains are to affect parts of Scotland.

Edited by ElectricSnowStorm
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Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)

Monday(today)

heavy downpours around the SE/EA and other parts of south at the moment, this moving away later, although slowly from eastside.

rain in Scotland at first, then this clearing at some point by the afternoon or before.

rains tonight into Scotland and N-Ireland.

NAE-00z most recent update. take alook at the rain areas on these charts-

time period of rainfall 6am-12pm

post-11361-0-50560100-1307332020_thumb.g

12pm-6pm

post-11361-0-89834600-1307332026_thumb.g

6pm-12am(midnight)

post-11361-0-73166300-1307332030_thumb.g

Edited by ElectricSnowStorm
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

5.0mm in the last 24 hours which is great, but now they have flooding on the A27 around Chichester!

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Posted
  • Location: Orleton, 6 miles south of Ludlow
  • Location: Orleton, 6 miles south of Ludlow

Water table lower than normal for the time of year here, as evidenced by our well water level being about 2 feet below normal.

Edited by picog
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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Its been quite a dry start to June here in the Lake District - yesterday saw patchy rain showers amounting to barely a few mms.. however, this week should see some healthy falls bringing levels probably closer to where they should be.

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Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)

5.0mm in the last 24 hours which is great, but now they have flooding on the A27 around Chichester!

here in Surrey we did have several hours of steady to heavy rain, not sure how much we got, but it washed away the brown grass in places that are now mud patches, that should grow new grass soon. Edited by ElectricSnowStorm
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Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)

Tuesday(today)

Low Pressure in charge to day-this providing widespread heavy downpours in all western and northern areas-some prolonged, some thunderstorms are likely with hail and flooding, maybe some extreme gusts. some downpours or heavy showers getting to eastern side, with the southeast seeing the less risk of any showers. very wet in Scotland into tuesday night and into wednesday.

6am-12pm

post-11361-0-46941200-1307416161_thumb.g

12pm-6pm

post-11361-0-48347000-1307416169_thumb.g

6pm-12am

post-11361-0-47798000-1307416166_thumb.g

and last ppn chart we take alook into wednesday this is 12am-6am

post-11361-0-14280300-1307416172_thumb.g

some very wet weather in places today and tonight - mostly west/north at highest risk

expect some flooding of roads even flash flooding in some areas.

NAE data is 18z - this is not the most recent update, but i do not expect much change - if any significant changes are shown another member may post the charts updates.

Edit... the NAE 00z new update just come on, i can't see much change, it looks quite the same as i have stated above, and the charts look quite the same as the ones 18z posted above.

Edited by ElectricSnowStorm
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Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)

Wednesday(today)

Heavy downpours and local flooding now in Scotland. Met Office Warnings

heavy showers or downpours in Western areas now and overnight.

Some of this rain continues overnight and into the morning and could be thundery, possible hail.

Today widespread heavy and thundery downpours for many areas - west and north highest risk of thunderstorm today.

NAE 18z charts

12am-6am

post-11361-0-86360200-1307497805_thumb.g

6am-12pm

post-11361-0-64788900-1307497800_thumb.g

12pm-6pm

post-11361-0-67100200-1307497808_thumb.g

6pm-12am

post-11361-0-62602000-1307497803_thumb.g

Heavy rains/showers could continue in Scotland on wednesday night into thursday.

12am-6am thursday

post-11361-0-64831100-1307498031_thumb.g

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Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)

Thursday(today) Widspread showery day - some heavy downpours in places. everywhere at risk of showers or heavy showers.

these continuing late for some areas.

Latest 00z NAE charts below

6am-12pm

post-11361-0-95358700-1307590807_thumb.g

12pm-6pm

post-11361-0-48556400-1307590817_thumb.g

6pm-12am

post-11361-0-98786300-1307590813_thumb.g

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Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)

Friday(today) Widespread Heavy and Thundery Downpours developing today across most areas - some Thunderstorms are likely, this active weather lasting through the evening for some areas. flash flooding along with possible hail or even hailstorms are a risk. see the convective storm thread for more infomation on the thunderstorms.

NAE - 00z latest updated ppn charts

6am-12pm

post-11361-0-64454800-1307678690_thumb.g

12pm-6pm

post-11361-0-66919700-1307678694_thumb.g

6pm-12am

post-11361-0-90199600-1307678692_thumb.g

Drought areas are looking like recieving some good rainfall over the next few days!! some being more prolonged and persistent . although this may change.

Edited by ElectricSnowStorm
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

BBC local have us down for quite a bit of rain here in the SE today, just hope it can do some good in the fields and gardens

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Posted
  • Location: South East Cambridgeshire 57m ASL
  • Location: South East Cambridgeshire 57m ASL

Sunday could potentially be a very wet day for some, particularly down in the SW, as a LP system and its associated fronts cross the country on a SW-NE track. All areas should see some rainfall though. The Met have issued an adivsory for heavy rainfall, up to 40mm in the SW on Sunday;

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/sw/sw_forecast_warnings.html?day=1

FAX chart for T+60 (midday Sunday) http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax60s.gif

FAX chart for T+72 (midnight Monday) http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax72s.gif

I await the next few NAE runs with great interest, as a fair amount of rain is needed here! :)

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Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)

Saturday(today) note:please ignore the file names on the images if they say friday in the bottom left corner-they are meant to say saturday. you can see the date on the actual charts anyway.

Heavy showers breaking out across many areas - some heavy and thundery, others just your average shower.

looking at the latest NAE 12pm - 6pm this shows a mass of rain heading in from the North Sea

post-11361-0-04247300-1307764958_thumb.g

if we take a look at the 4am radar snap from the MetO you can clearly see this heading into the NE.

post-11361-0-31386400-1307765043_thumb.g

here are the precipitation charts from NAE 00z-saturday

6am-12pm

post-11361-0-52063500-1307764864_thumb.g

12pm-6pm

post-11361-0-04247300-1307764958_thumb.g

6pm-12am

post-11361-0-67604900-1307764865_thumb.g

-

Now we can take a look at sunday

Sunday charts below..

NAE 00z - lots of rain for everyone as a system sweeps in. needs to be kept watch as some areas could see flooding.

Areas like EA/SE that usually miss out as fronts weaken when they reach here- look to get some decent rain out of this system!

post-11361-0-00752300-1307764868_thumb.g-6am-12pm

post-11361-0-46605100-1307764869_thumb.g-12pm-6pm

Edited by ElectricSnowStorm
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Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)

could someone post ppn charts in at some point, as i cant post charts for a few days. i usually post the NAE's. thanks.

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Posted
  • Location: Morley, Leeds West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Morley, Leeds West Yorkshire

It may be dross but it will be very welcome for some

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