Rain Watch

[ZONE 51]

As we are aware their is drought conditions across many areas, this could become more significant as we move into and through the summer months, it is a concern as it does look likely that we are to experience a serious drought in places this summer.

I have decided to create a thread for us to watch for any rainfall, we are actually going to be looking for rain!! taking a close look at the precipitation charts, checking for even a few widespread mm's of rain that could help at least the surface, please discuss rainfall here.

[ZONE 51]

wednesday to thursday morning outlook..

UKMO..

GFS - accumulated ppn up to 6am thursday morning

NAE accumulated - up to 6am thursday morning

very small amount in east and the south, maybe 1mm or 2 if that...

although looking at the following chart and also GFS it does look like the front bringing a few heavier pulses into East Anglia?

[vortex_liam]

rain dance?

[ZONE 51]

rain dance?

not for the NW of Scotland though...see charts for tonight..

[ZONE 51]

Today GFS 00z

dry across most areas rain into the northwest Scotland later, no rain for the east and south.

and NAE

becoming very wet for Scotland into tonight and friday

staying dry in the south and east friday, most rain in Scotland(although heavy showers could turn up across areas away from the south and east?)

[ZONE 51]

below is the GFS 18z rain accumulation prediction chart - ending early hours saturday morning 21st may

no rain for east anglia and southeast again.

[ZONE 51]

A cold front is crossing all areas at the moment, rain is heavy in places.

East Angia/Southeast England can only hope some of the rain can hold together by time it reaches these areas by the morning.

UKMO ppn charts below from 6am - 6pm sunday(today) (GFS/NAE) are very much the same

[Great Plum]

Well, we've had about 45 minutes reasonable rainfall here in Surrey this morning so far... Might just keep the dust down!

[Terminal Moraine]

As someone who is always looking out for rain, and the more the better, I welcome this thread.

Just over 40 mm here so far this month but 27 mm of that fell on the 7th and since then there have been numerous very small amounts on individual days.

Yesterday was a prime example of what's been happening recently. Initially we were forecast a good soaking as the cold front moved south east overnight but in the event it died away to almost nothing and we got only 0.8mm.

Even areas further north in the Peak District had only 4 or 5 mm.

It now looks as if Monday will be similar so I'm hoping for better things as the shortwave makes its way east later in the week.

[Bluebreezer54]

A total of just 0.9mm here as the front passed through overnight, total for May so far is 13.5mm

[Mike Storm]

Yay it rained here for about 30 mins at 6-630am this morn.... gonna check my butt (water that is!) to see if theres anything in it

[Terminal Moraine]

We've just had more rain from a shower in the last 10 minutes than we had from the cold front last night.

One or two more on way too by the look of it.

[Osbourne One-Nil]

Received 16mm in the past 24 hours and now up to almost 190mm for the spring so far.

[TEITS]

Grand total of around 0.2mm last night as the rain faded before reaching my location. The way Peterborough is missing the rainfall is now starting to get silly.

Looks like I might have to wait until late next week.

[Teesdale]

Received 16mm in the past 24 hours and now up to almost 190mm for the spring so far.

Bit drier at 150mm here this spring. Really need a wet easterly dominated month to catch you up.

464mm so far this year, Copley 10 miles Eastwards, roughly half at 237mm. Newton Aycliffe another 15miles further East is only on 130mm.

[TonyH]

Surely central and SE will have had a decent soak by this time next week?

[ZONE 51]

Very wet for Northern areas as shown on NAE for monday(today)

hardly anything falling in East Anglia and South east England again through even into tuesday!

so the areas in need of the rain the most-(EA/SE)get just a splash again on monday night.

im not sure if areas other than ea/se are in the same situation with drought?

[ZONE 51]

Today(wednesday)Scotland today sees more rain. potential for torrential downpours in places. rain/heavy showers at some point moves into Northern Ireland

by the evening most areas in the North sees rain. then in evening and overnight the western side has rain. all this from a cold front.

In the areas south and east once again can't see any rain on wednesday,

Thursday - sees widespread heavy downpours and potential active thunderstorms - one to watch as these could give rains for the drought areas!

[TEITS]

A video from the BBC in Cambs talking about how dry it has been here and how this could affect the cost of food.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-13538304

[ZONE 51]

Today(Thursday) many areas are likely to see rain full

most rainfall coming in the way of heavy downpours and thunderstorms.

below is - Netweather forecaster Nick.Fs storm risk chart. and heres the link to the Netweather storm forecast

rainfall NAE -

the last chart is NAE accumulated ppn, it shows many areas to of recieved rainfall by the end of thursday, any thunderstorms would give higher totals locally.

[Bluebreezer54]

Some parts of London and the South East saw some much welcome rain today.......and some thundery activity as well. Nice one

[damianslaw]

Some parts of London and the South East saw some much welcome rain today.......and some thundery activity as well. Nice one

Today saw a northwesterly airstream around a deep low anchored over the n sea hence why the SE did very well for showers compared to many a recent day. Convection played a major part.

Had the low taken a more southerly path the SE could have easily seen a deluge - these are the kind of synoptics the SE needs for sustained rain at this time of year - it is rare for the SE to see much from atlantic frontal activity on westerly trajectory which has been the theme of May in the main.

[ZONE 51]

My part of Surrey had an intense downpour thursday as a storm tracked close by-so it has done good on the surface, but we need prolonged but steady rainfall(we do not want flash flooding as this causes other problems) their is not any sign of prolonged rainfall in the realiable timeframe for the drought affected areas of the SE/EA ,we could see heavy showers around friday in places.

so where is rain to fall on friday....

heres is some charts

some showers breaking out down the east side of UK, rain into the Northwest ,this rain pushing into other Northern and Western areas later and into friday night-some heavy rain to .this rain at this stage looking unlikely to give much in EA/SE when it arrives on saturday.

[ZONE 51]

been busy so could not update you for saturday.

ok taking a look at sunday(today)

NAE

3am-9am

6am-12pm

12pm-6pm

UKMO

GFS

heavy rain then heavy showers in Scotland especially Northwest.

some rain over other Western and Northern areas/Northern England early, clearing to much more brighter conditions.

Southern and Eastern areas looking dry again.

a snap of monday below - UKMO

some real rainfall for the South and East!! it can change, but i think its more likely to move around abit rather then not turn up, ok we need this rain...but it would be on the dayoff!

[ZONE 51]

Bank Holiday Monday(today) - a special today with lots of charts!

taking alook at the 3 major models-

NAE

6am-12pm

12pm-6pm

UKMO

6am-12pm

12pm-6pm

GFS

12pm-6pm (6-hour rainfal chartl)

9am

12pm

3pm

6pm

9pm

wide view 12pm

DATA - 18z some small changes may occur later when new model data comes out.

Warm sunshine and heavy downpours for Scotland and Northern Ireland.

Other areas we see a band of rain heavy in places pushing from west to east -some areas bright or sunny before cloud then rain moves in..and areas with earlier rain should brighten up after.

some rain for East Anglia and Southeast England-not looking like much rain again,at first before the cloud and rain it should turn warm and sunny or bright! as the drought conditions continue we need to see if the rain can hold strength as it moves across, we won't really know until late afternoon/evening time if its going to just be patchy or heavier i think.