Rain Watch

[TonyH]

Mega falls seem a thing of the past here, just 11mm today.

[Andy Bown]

This has been the wettest 24 hour period since 1-2 October 2010!

37.5mm since around 03.00!

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

53.6mm of rain here today!

[Upgrade]

wet and increasingly windy here now . a nasty evening but we havent had many this spring /summer so it still feels like a novelty !

[Ben_Cambs]

Bringing this topic back up, the next period of interest is Friday into Saturday. It looks like a low will develop fairly quickly and track along the Southern half of the country, with the centre around 995mb( according to GFS). However, there is the potential for some gale force winds with windspeeds hitting 50mph+, particularly on the low's Southern flank.

In conjuncture with this, an occluded front containly heavy and persistant rain looks likely to travel across England and Wales in particular during Friday evening and overnight into Saturday. Before we can be certain about the trajectory of the LP and its strength, we need cross agreement from the 3 major models which at this current stage we do not have, GFS: 995mb, UKMO 1000mb. and ECM will be updated later.

I will update this thread with charts and text again tomorrow

[ZONE 51]

thanks for keeping the thread rolling all! and ben-camb, if you could post up charts that would be great, some interesting activity coming up!

[Ben_Cambs]

Thanks ESS!

In the short-term, early morning tomorrow could bring a brief spell of rain for those near the South coast. Then showers will develop through the day tomorrow, quite scattered but heavy at times, this risk does apply to the whole of the country.

Friday is the main day of interest though;

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax60s.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax72s.gif

The LP system with its associated fronts will track across the Southern half of the UK, rain should arrive around morning rush hour for the SW, and these fronts will track NE, with rain falling in London by early afternoon. The rain will be heavy at times and persistant with gusty winds, and the rain for parts of the East will continue well into the night. We'll have to wait until tomorrow morning though for predicted precipitation accumilations from the NAE model. Sundays rain gave 10mm here, I'm hoping this can do just as much or hopefully even more rain.

GFS for midnight Saturday : http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn664.png

Will further update once this LP comes in range of the NAE model, which should be the 12z run this evening.

[picog]

It seems to be looking less wet than originally predicted?

[sunny scunny]

It seems to be looking less wet than originally predicted?

It does for N Lincs, which is a shame because my area needs a lot of rain, having missed out on all the showers recently.

[Ben_Cambs]

It seems to be looking less wet than originally predicted?

Yes I agree, I hadn't looked at the NAE precip accumilation charts for a day or so but it defiently appears to be less intense and a bit more dis-organised than it was progged 24 hours ago. But saying that, we had a similar case last Saturday afternoon where the NAE was progging only 3-4mm for last Sunday some places but within a few hours of the arrival of the front these projected accumilations increased a fair amount in some cases. So we may see last-minute intensification of the front and hitting a wider area, or we may even see the front continued to be weakened by the models. I suppose we'll have to wait and see come tomorrow afternoon once the front makes landfall over the UK.

Also at the moment it looks like a front may bring heavy rain to many parts of the UK on Monday, subject to change as always though.

Edited June 16, 2011 by Ben_Cambs

[EaasmanG]

25.6mm (1 inch) of rain so far here, for June that is.

Edited June 16, 2011 by EaasmanG

[ZONE 51]

here she comes....

watch the rains move into the SW and Ireland ,this is to hit all areas today and tonight, a massive area of rain. il upload the NAEs in a minute..

NAE - 00z latest update - friday(today)

12am-6am

6am-12pm

12pm-6pm

6pm-12am

-

Washout? its does looks very wet for all areas. i would expect flooding in places.

after the main rains expect heavy and thundery downpours to affect some areas overnight, and into saturday-this being most likely to build thunderstorms

Edited June 17, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[sunny scunny]

Several hours of moderate rain would be welcome here today, but i think much of it will be on the light side here <_<

[picog]

Several hours of moderate rain would be welcome here today, but i think much of it will be on the light side here <_<

Same here — for some reason, the rain band always seems to split when it comes over us, so we end up with very little or none. We did get about 25mm last Sunday (not complaining), but since then almost no measurable rain has fallen in the garden. The ground is as dry and cracked as it was before we had our inch last weekend. We are just getting a few spots now, but most action looks like it's in the irish Sea. Maybe we'll be lucky later?

[sunny scunny]

Same here — for some reason, the rain band always seems to split when it comes over us, so we end up with very little or none. We did get about 25mm last Sunday (not complaining), but since then almost no measurable rain has fallen in the garden. The ground is as dry and cracked as it was before we had our inch last weekend. We are just getting a few spots now, but most action looks like it's in the irish Sea. Maybe we'll be lucky later?

25mm? I don't think my area has seen that much rain in the last 2 months.In the last week lots of showers have missed my area by 5 mile or less.The grass is still brown in places which says it all really.Even tomorrow is looking dry now with the heavy showers to the south Im 90% sure that my area will be stuck in a dry,cloudy slot tomorrow.

[chionomaniac]

We have the best part of an inch of rain down here today. Good, moderate, persistent rain that soaks into the deeper layers. A couple of weeks ago we were near drought conditions but what a turnaround. The brown grass has all but vanished and the craters in the clay rich soil that I could slide a book down have again been replaced with the mud clay squelch. Once the clay gets like that it takes a fair time to dry out. With no let up for the next couple of weeks likely, it would seem that even if July and August were very dry, I suspect that there will be no hosepipe ban down here.

Looking forward to another switch around again!

[ZONE 51]

http://www.metoffice...t_pressure.html

heres the latest NAE for 12pm-6pm

someone can update this evenings and tonight.

Heavy downpours and thunderstorms in some areas

Edited June 18, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[ZONE 51]

Sunday(today) - South Scotland and North East England maybe other Eastern areas a bit further south of these areas - heavy downpours some prolonged possibly thundery - even thunderstorms in some areas.

All Other areas possible heavy showers.

NAE - 12pm-6pm

The following chart shows rains down Eastern side into EA - so check for updates on this.

Monday next week(tommorow) is widespread wet weather - wet tennis balls anyone!!

Edited June 19, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Staffordshire]

It's looking like this week could be a total washout, an Atlantic LP system will move NE throughout the country on Monday this could be heavy in the SW and the hills of south Wales especially but will tend to peter out as it Progresses leaving showery rain for England and more persistant rain for Scotland on Tuesday. Wednesday could see a very lively day of showers with the possibilty of hail and thunder mixed in, theese showers will become less heavy and frequent by Thursday but will still be noticable and then friday...

Edited June 19, 2011 by Staffordshire

[Summer Sun]

Well i wouldn't call it a wash out not by any means, i think Scotland and the SE will avoid the worst of the rain at times, most of the rain after tomorrow looks patchy and in maybe in the form of showers rather than prolonged rain fal. I think the wind in the south will be noticed more this week, which will keep it cool.

[Staffordshire]

Yes maybe I should call it a "dull" week ahead, I'm expecting some good thundery activity Wednesday sine good upper temps for it. I'd say anywhere in eastern England, middlands, Wales and perhaps northen places stand good chance if things stay how they are.

[TonyH]

Probably neither a particularly wet or dull week. Sunny spells and showers for the most part. Certain days in certain regions should be mostly dry and bright.

[damianslaw]

Compared to May, June has seen rainfall of a very even distribution, with the south seeing equal amounts of rain to the north - indeed some of the most intense rainfall has been in the south. Here in Cumbria rainfall has been moderate at best - certainly not the amounts we were recording in May.

[ZONE 51]

Today - monday GFS 00z latest updates

charts are 9am/12pm/3pm/6pm/9pm/12am/into tuesday at 3am (8 charts here)

rain in most areas today affecting some morning, afternoon and evening, rains are likely to be heavy in places, rain affecting locations at different times through the period..so keep the rain coats handy!

Thunder or even thunderstorms could turn up in the rains through today and evening so keep a check on the forecasts and convective thread on NetWeather

[Osbourne One-Nil]

Just to comment that I am a mere 0.4mm off beating last year's total rainfall....and it's mid-July!