Model Output Discussion

[Summer Sun]

For you in darlington maybe but for us in the midlands(apart from telford of course have had a sunny dry warm month that has felt like summer.

We've had our fair share of warm weather Eugene mainly easter and May, we got upto 26c or 27c, but the day's were short then, if ECM is anything to go by then we could be in for another warm spell this time next week, and lasting longer than 2 to 3 day's

http://www.wetterzen...s/Recm2401.html

Edited June 24, 2011 by Gavin D

[Geordiesnow]

Dearie me, this thread was horrible to read just then, alot of bickering regarding locations and seeing posts writing summer off yet again but as it prooves, drier and even warmer weather can arrive at any time if albeit the real heat will be fairly limited in terms of durations and unfortuantely for some locations, the heat will never arrive.

Not really, if the output was to verify then we would be seeing sustained high pressure over us from 30th June to 6th July.

Again Backtrack, you are up and down like a yo-yo regarding your posts, earlier on you claim to write off July because the outlook in your eyes look poor but now it seems high pressure may make another appearance you seem more confident as highlighted above although the dates are such a long time away then it is subject to change.

I guess in some ways the heat has been downgraded for some but as I said yesterday the margins were pretty fine but Southern and Eastern areas should hang onto some proper warmth/hot weather for 2 days before it breaks down but it looks like to me any breakdown won't be as widespread as what yesterday's outputs have shown. Then the weather will turn cooler but it should be showery so again at least the outlook is not "dull" in terms of sunshine amounts.

[Backtrack]

Dearie me, this thread was horrible to read just then, alot of bickering regarding locations and seeing posts writing summer off yet again but as it prooves, drier and even warmer weather can arrive at any time if albeit the real heat will be fairly limited in terms of durations and unfortuantely for some locations, the heat will never arrive.

Again Backtrack, you are up and down like a yo-yo regarding your posts, earlier on you claim to write off July because the outlook in your eyes look poor but now it seems high pressure may make another appearance you seem more confident as highlighted above although the dates are such a long time away then it is subject to change.

I guess in some ways the heat has been downgraded for some but as I said yesterday the margins were pretty fine but Southern and Eastern areas should hang onto some proper warmth/hot weather for 2 days before it breaks down but it looks like to me any breakdown won't be as widespread as what yesterday's outputs have shown. Then the weather will turn cooler but it should be showery so again at least the outlook is not "dull" in terms of sunshine amounts.

I'm still confident that July will be a poor month overall to be fair. The output on the 12z was excellent in my eyes, but not enough to boost my confidence enough. If the 12z does verify then it will please many. But like you say, 6 days is a long time in weather forecasting.

[mountain shadow]

ECM Keeps the warmth in the far south and east to Tuesday,

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm722.html http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm962.html

Cooler Wednesday

http://www.wetterzen...s/Recm1202.html

Then look what's coming from the south west from Thursday

http://www.wetterzen...s/Recm1441.html

http://www.wetterzen...s/Recm1681.html

Let's hope summer is on it's way.

Gavin,

You post the same optimistic stuff every day. Please wait until the run ends before posting.

All the ECM shows is what we have had all Summer, atlantic dominated with brief ridges.

[Carl46Wrexham]

It's not been a warm month at all though away from the South East, the CET is below average and its been 14-17c everyday bar a few days here and its pouring with rain again which it has done nearly everyday since the 5th.

A worse June than 2007 for sure which had thunderstorms, warm sunny weather frequently for the first 2 weeks...

I have to concur with Conor here. This month for me has been nothing remotely resembling a summer month (the first 2 days excepted that is!) Unless of course a summer month should be dominated by cloudy cool conditions, and a stiff breeze more often than not.

Sorry but that is not my idea of a summer month. April was far superior than what this month has been.

[UV-RAY]

Gavin,

You post the same optimistic stuff every day. Please wait until the run ends before posting.

All the ECM shows is what we have had all Summer, atlantic dominated with brief ridges.

I enjoy his optimistic post, there are enough of us pessimist to more than counter his upbeat post, Hell he's even got me convinced that summer is coming now.

[Jason T]

no surprise to see the SE keep the warmer/hot conditions for longest

Well it will as the pattern comes up through the SOUTH and builds to the EAST. If im wrong i apologise, but i doubt it.

[feb1991blizzard]

I Dont get this forecast at all on monday for london. How can you possibly have over 1500 j/kg of CAPE, a lifted index value of -5 and a storm risk of 0%!!!

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=stormforecast;page=4;type=storm;ct=18354~City of London;sess=#forecast

[Summer Sun]

Gavin,

You post the same optimistic stuff every day. Please wait until the run ends before posting.

All the ECM shows is what we have had all Summer, atlantic dominated with brief ridges.

Well maybe it is from the Atlantic but at least it shows at least 5 day's of high pressure, and not Low pressure ok it may not be sunny and dry every day, but anything is better than low pressure, anyway south westerly winds this time of year are warm!

At least be optimistic and say July won't be as bad as June

[damianslaw]

A very brief warm spell for england and wales before we see trough action from the atlantic come back into action - a bit of a blink and you'll miss it warm spell further north and west especially.

Next week remaining changeable but the azores high will be doing its best to ridge into the south - so never particularly cool in the south.

All rather average standard sumemr fare it has to be said - could be worse but could be alot better..

[bluearmy]

beyond next week which shows some promise, especially for the southern half uk as we approach the weekend, the first full week july doesn't look that great to me as we look likely to attract the attention of the upper trough - again!

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

beyond next week which shows some promise, especially for the southern half uk as we approach the weekend, the first full week july doesn't look that great to me as we look likely to attract the attention of the upper trough - again!

The same upper trough that has been an almost permanent feature for the last 3 summers BA?

In tandom with high pressure over Greenland..

[bluearmy]

The same upper trough that has been an almost permanent feature for the last 3 summers BA?

In tandom with high pressure over Greenland..

fraid so HD although i'm hopeful that as the time ticks by, the pattern may well be centred further north than in june. hence at least the southern part of the uk may not be sooo bad.

[Costa Del Fal]

18z GFS delaying the cool down slightly. Sundays Thundery potential now seems to include the Central Midlands and Northwards now too.

Hot conditions should just about persist in the Midlands on Monday, certainly the SE. Very good import potential for the SE too on Monday evening.

Not the longest hot spell but one we should take every moment of and enjoy.

Edited June 24, 2011 by Blizzards

[xerxes]

Well maybe it is from the Atlantic but at least it shows at least 5 day's of high pressure, and not Low pressure ok it may not be sunny and dry every day, but anything is better than low pressure, anyway south westerly winds this time of year are warm!

At least be optimistic and say July won't be as bad as June

All a bit fractious in here tonight. Reminds me of winter! It's a fair point to mention the AH ridging next week as it's more likely to occur than the stuff even further out into fantasy land. Given the possibility of June's synoptics reoccuring with time, at least it's likely to be a bit warmer as the ambient temperature is usually higher in July.

[mountain shadow]

No real change in the output this morning.

The pattern remains atlantic driven with ridges from time to time settling things down. The ECM has the azores high as more of a player perhaps providing a little hope further down the line.

[Gordon]

one consolation it's looking dry for my Birthday tomorrow but after that the hot weather will be certainly still be in the SE on Monday while disappearing from elsewhere

oh the joys of British weather

[Eugene]

Looking like a nice pleasant week with some nice sunshine once the cloudy muggy air is pushed away after monday.

[Gordon]

BBC Breakfast forecast having temps of 31/32 possible in the SE on Monday which could trigger a few thundery showers later in the day

of course even this far out that's not certain

seems away from the SE though tomorrow's the day with the heat dribbling away elsewhere on Monday

and for Scotland and NI well good luck getting it at all

[Glacier Point]

beyond next week which shows some promise, especially for the southern half uk as we approach the weekend, the first full week july doesn't look that great to me as we look likely to attract the attention of the upper trough - again!

Considering the background teleconnective signals here: hemispheric SSTAs; SOI running solidly positive for a week now; angular momentum sinking fast; and a complete lack of tropical convection; that mean trough should be destined for us and become much more well defined.

However, the extended range modelling, whilst cool, is notably developing conditions for shortwave activity in the western Atlantic south of Greenland associated with a lowering of the strong heights over and west of Greenland. Just wondering whether the lagged impacts of the strong final warming of the polar vortex in April are coming to an end here. Considering everything else, and how bad the mdelling could be, the general thrust isn't bad at all - and notable dry.

Link below shows lagged impact of final warming over the Arctic (red lines descending down through the atmosphere):

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_HGT_ANOM_ALL_NH_2011.gif

[ANYWEATHER]

Looks as though a continuation of unsettled weather as we have had in June will take us into July. Certainly no wash out looking at the models but after this very warm blip, its back to the normal stuff....!

[AWD]

Looks as though a continuation of unsettled weather as we have had in June will take us into July. Certainly no wash out looking at the models but after this very warm blip, its back to the normal stuff....!

Whilst technically it may be unsettled, there is very little rain projected to reach the south and east, with pressure soon rising to the south west again, so whilst no heatwave, there will be many a pleasent dry sunny day in the south!!

[Backtrack]

I would not be so fast to say that we will be seeing a continuation of the same. Infact the output isn't that bad at all in my eyes.

We have lots of high pressure throughout the run, and by the end of the run we finally see an end to the Greenland high, this is replaced by low pressure and therefore no more Northern blocking. It could be that mid-July onward is when Summer will truly start.

[Uncle_Barty]

Really doesnt look too bad down south - ok no heatwave but definitely an improvement on the middle third of this month. Further north and west looks like being plagued by troughs but even then not to the extent of recent weeks.. at least the troughing looks less deep and heights are generally higher everywhere.

[Milhouse]

The GFS 0Z has next weeks low quickly moving off to our northeast and replaced by high pressure for a few days. Innitially it looks like quite a strong feature but its blown away by low pressure too easily. So yes, by next weekend we may see low pressure tracking to the north of Scotland but there will be a lot of dry and warm weather elsewhere later on next week. Remember its July soon when temperatures can easily reach the low 20s even 25c in just a weak ridge. I'm seeing no evidence of LP sticking around for days on end like what we have had recently, so instead of saying unsettled i wish some forumers would put a little more meat on the bones and acknowledge the dry weather too.