El Gordo! - Spanish Plume Thunderstorm Discussion

[Eabie]

So tomorrow, I can hope for some thundery showers from the southwest at least? I'll definitely take what I can get.

[lewisosd]

So, who is getting really excited about the prospect of the next 48 hours. I know I am!!!!

[Neilsouth]

All these people asking about where the storms will fire

JUST WAIT!

Storms could go up anywhere as from today into tuesday, it's all a nowcast situation :clap:

[Costa Del Fal]

An excellent NMM 06z run which has just come out. Explosive Cape developing tomorrow especially over Central regions before becoming confined to the E/SE by evening. Before then, many showers and Thunderstorms break out on the model which loads of Deep Layer shear, very high precipitable water and so on!

Again that Theta E plume tonight with very high ML Cape into the Midlands tonight. I have a feeling not much will come from this but certainly an extra possibility here.

[Neilsouth]

TODAY: The situation for today generally hasn't changed that much. The majority of England and Wales will simply be hot and humid. The mid and upper levels are simply too stable to allow for any significant convective activity this afternoon/evening. However, that focal point across parts of the North Midlands and up into Northern England remains. The forecast soundings, which I have been posting for Leeds, continue to signal an atmosphere that is completely unstable with a broken CAP with surface temperatures near 25C and dew points around 15C or 16C. That is acheivable through the afternoon and as a result I still expect a few ISOL TS to develop during the course of the afternoon. Here in E Lancs there has already been an impressive display of Altocumulus Castallanus, signalling that instabillity currently in mid Levels. Obviously what needs is the surface or boundary layer conditions to reach a set temperature for complete instability.

So in summery for today, little activity for many, but some ISOL TS possible across N England and again conditions would be conducive for locally severe TS, so if you do catch one it would be quite a show!...

MONDAY: I've not had time to properly sit down and analyse, to be honest I don't really want to on my weekend off, but from the usual charts I've looked at this morning, the situation tomorrow to me is far better on a larger scale across England and Wales than seems to be the case on some of the forecast models;

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack0.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack0a.gif

What seems to happen is that the very small low pressure evident at 0000Z tonight then obviously pushes NE across England and simply develops into a convective low pressure during the day. What the models are still struggling with is the specific developments and just how far W this convective risk will be. I've looked at the UKMO MESO and by midday tomorrow it has heavy and potentially thundery conditions across SW Englad and Wales, yet the GFS for example has the whole convective risk at least 2 or 300miles further E.

http://lightningwizard.estofex.org/Europe/ani.html?0,gfs_cape_eur,.png,24,27,30,33,36,39,42,45,48

The above MLCAPE charts do show what I believe will happen tomorrow and that is there will be a zone of instability that runs from SW England (somewhere!) and then NE=wards into England during the day. Clearly the heat is greatest across Central and S areas and as a result I would still expect that it will be parts of the S and SE that are at greatest risk of some really nasty thunderstorms. All the ingredients are there for well developed organised storms as well due to shear and helicity. The main and $64,000 question is, which specific 'zone' will be at risk...

I'll stick my neck out and forecast the following for tomorrow;

http://img802.imageshack.us/img802/8229/convectiveriskfcst27jun.jpg

All in all still a difficult forecast, but clearly Monday and into Monday evening is likely to be the main event before it then all comes a distant memory by Tue/Wed as is the case with snow in winter, some people are going to get badly affected potentially here, yet others will clearly experience nothing convective wise.

Enjoy the heat and humidity all!...time to log off and enjoy the rest of the weekend.

M.

MVH- TWO FORUMS

[Harsh Climate]

Its looking good for a storm this afternoon in west yorkshire

The temperatures already 24C, with I think 26C needed for the cap to break and with about 800J/kg of CAPE on offer and some decent wind shear I certainly would expect any storms to be quite tasty!

Looking out my window some nice cumulus clouds developing, so everything goin to plan so far

[Love Snow]

Will Leeds be in for a shout of the stormy weather?

Thanks in advance

[Neilsouth]

Will Leeds be in for a shout of the stormy weather?

Thanks in advance

All these people asking about where the storms will fire

JUST WAIT!

Storms could go up anywhere as from today into tuesday, it's all a nowcast situation :clap:

<_< <_<

[Harsh Climate]

Will Leeds be in for a shout of the stormy weather?

Thanks in advance

Yes, I think its looking very likely now

[Chris.R]

just had a shower here already! Not forecast by metoffice.

[TEITS]

MVH- TWO FORUMS

Seems spot on does that in my opinion.

I have much respect for MVH.

[MikeUpjohn]

Its looking like the convergence zone across the Cheshire Plain/Mersey Estuary will be enough lift to break the cap currently in place (aswell as DPs from the estuary giving it that extra moisture needed), orographic lift will also come into play further along past Lancs holding the cell/s at bay as they begin to transition NE out into the North Sea. If you draw a line between Liverpool and Newcastle I certainly would be watching out for today's potential.

Looking good for something here in Macclesfield. Was dubious of getting anything until this morning, but might get the camera out in hope! Some Ac Cas clouds here as well now.

Mike.

[lewisosd]

well my storm chance has been beefed up today. It's like a yoyo on the storm risk predictions. Nothing convective over this way yet but still plenty of time. All I know is that it is bloody hot! Bet the beeches are packed!

[Jane Louise]

For those asking where the storms are going to be. Here are a few links for now.

http://www.netweathe...gi?action=wist;

http://www.netweathe...=uk7dayx2;sess=

http://www.estofex.org/

http://expert.weathe.../cape_frame.htm

Put in your own postcode of course.

[Stuart]

the met office updated the warning for the storms there seem have moved them a bit more north for monday and tue but still to far south for me :diablo:

[Guest]

Sunday (today) storm risk

Monday storm risk

Just a bit of fun from me really, as I enjoy doing these things (probably a bit of Aspergers in me!) :lol:

[Lauren]

Hmmmmm 0% risk of thunderstorms for me tomorrow according to netweather. WTF?

[A.J]

An excellent NMM 06z run which has just come out. Explosive Cape developing tomorrow especially over Central regions before becoming confined to the E/SE by evening. Before then, many showers and Thunderstorms break out on the model which loads of Deep Layer shear, very high precipitable water and so on!

Again that Theta E plume tonight with very high ML Cape into the Midlands tonight. I have a feeling not much will come from this but certainly an extra possibility here.

Comparing the NMM to the 06z GFS & latest FAX output makes for interesting reading...all three models prog a small surface low feature to form overnight in the wee small hours in the SW pushing NNE, with the midlevel energy available, potential deep convection might well aid development of elevated storms early tomorrow morning, even perhaps a homegrown linear MCS? Certainly lots of uncertainty as well as promise for many parts of England & Wales

[weatherobsuk]

Large CB beginning to get its act together north Sheffield direction. Heights are hard to gauge on the Western side of the Pennines so perhaps someone more closer to these parts might have a better clue of what i'm looking at to my NE.

[Paul Sherman]

Have now had time to compare some models and tomorrow is looking like it could be one of the best days for many years.

Just for Comparison the GFS Shows a Temperature of 84f and Dewpoint of 72f (12 Spread) it is generating nearly 3,000jkg of Cape and sufficient Shear for Supercells with a SE Surface Wind

NMM Just viewed shows a Temperature to 84f and Dewpoint of 70f (14 Spread) it is generating 2,500 Ml Cape and 2,600jkg of SB Cape. There is a break in the CAP At 2pm near to Oxford but the Interesting thing is the Storm it breaks out near Warwick at 6pm and tracks this across the Fens and the Wash area.

So with this is mind we are setting up near to Banbury tomorrow and will chase from there all the way until we need a Boat.

Just bear in Mind on the High Risk day in Oklahoma on 24th May 2011 we had Temp/Dp Spread of 82/72f with 40-50kts of Deep Layer Shear and 3,000jkg of Cape.

If this verifies and does not downgrade in the next 24 hours we could be seeing something pretty spectacular for Uk Standards

Paul S

[Harsh Climate]

Sunday (today) storm risk

Monday storm risk

Just a bit of fun from me really, as I enjoy doing these things (probably a bit of Aspergers in me!) :lol:

Im liking todays risk that you've done, not because I'm smack in the middle of the red zone though

[A.J]

Sunday (today) storm risk

Monday storm risk

Just a bit of fun from me really, as I enjoy doing these things (probably a bit of Aspergers in me!) :lol:

Good call Steve, and most likely will pan out to be very near the mark......Have a well earned rep point!

[Stuart]

I am in no Zone right now i hope it change

[Lt. Dan]

Latest NMM shows a nice area of lift over the South East tomorrow afternoon/evening - eating right into the highest CAPE values as well. Looks very likely for storms to fire if that run holds together.

[Costa Del Fal]

Comparing the NMM to the 06z GFS & latest FAX output makes for interesting reading...all three models prog a small surface low feature to form overnight in the wee small hours in the SW pushing NNE, with the midlevel energy available, potential deep convection might well aid development of elevated storms early tomorrow morning, even perhaps a homegrown linear MCS? Certainly lots of uncertainty as well as promise for many parts of England & Wales

Very interesting indeed. Maybe I would have a bit more confidence if the models would break some PPN from it but then again its nowcasting at this point. The Models have pretty much done their work I suppose. Certainly the potential for an "easier" Monday morning wake up! :lol: