El Gordo! - Spanish Plume Thunderstorm Discussion

[A.J]

Could there be any elevated storms tonight across Central UK tonight? A lot of ML Cape arrives tonight along with a high Theta E Plume with the GFS and NMM suggesting a mostly Low CAP over the region for a time. Tony at UKWW also mentions this.

Thoughts anyone? (Looking a bit more promising for this side of the UK now, Southerly winds have frequently delivered here in recent years).

I agree Luke, it's very humid out there already....Already signs of increasing ML instability out there, plenty of Ac Cas & Floccus in the skies, reminds me very much of May 6th and we had some cracking elevated lightning displays that night ...

Admittedly it's the 00z run but GFS has pronounced MLCAPE over England, it'll be interesting to see the 06z GFS as it now starts to roll out

Image from SkyWarn GFS plotter using 00z data set

[AWD]

What's confusing me is that the Met Office are forecasting thundery showers coming up from the South West over England and Wales! I didn't think this was the case at all!

I thought they were coming up from France heading into the South East and East Anglia! Totally different to what the Met are saying!!

I haven't seen no recent charts to suggest any thundery activity for south west England, the West Country and Wales!!

A very confused AWD!!

[Staffordshire]

Is the cape likely to increase over west middlands?

[Chris K]

Ye it seems the MetO are now predicting more showers spreading from the southwest, could mean something for us over here...but still I think it will intensify as it heads East, then the real storms will probably kick in, as well as possible imports.

[gottolovethisweather]

Hello all.

I don't know enough about it to suggest whether it will be the case but weatheronline and to some extent the latest MO Fax charts appear to suggest the following.

An area of precipitation will move up from the SW approaches (trough?) in the early hours of tomorrow and slowly progress in a NNE'wards direction across to parts of the west midlands by, say early afternoon. I would personally expect Somerset/South Gloucestershire/Bristol area to be under a monsoon around noon time after Cornwall & Devon have had their breakfasts interrupted. Gradually the mass of storms will then migrate northwards through central england, after which it's eyes to the south. Gut feeling at this stage is that Newmarket/Cambridge/Norwich may well be in the path of the all-nighter! Anyone eastwards of Reading, should be glued to the radars and looking out of their curtains by this stage.:excl:

The above is strictly my words and my own interpretation of what the output seems to be suggesting! However, I believe the above illustrates why the AcCas is already evident.

One downer I do have is that according to the 00z NAE stuff online, I don't see an indication of this MCS development within their output just some daytime chaos! Am I reading it wrong?

Anyway, let's hope most of us get a share of some of the action and I think must folk will within the next 48 hours.

Thundery Regards

gottolovethisweather

[Polar Maritime]

In my opinion, its all down to nowcasting from here on. The warnings are out there, and will change nearer the time. These storms could crop up anwhere, exiting 48 hrs ahead ! Good luck everyone.

[A.J]

06Z looks very interesting for the western side of the UK tonight/overnight into tomorrow, Wind direction & speeds suggest a possible surface feature developing running ahead of the ad]vancing CF..... as the CF advances the surface feature forms a trough ahead of the CF, I'm thinking that it's that feature that the Met Office have interest going into tomorrow for western/Central parts of England

06zFax charts showing feature and associated trough

06zGFS wind direction and speed

[Harry]

BBC really not keen on the threat of showers/thunderstorms today.

UKASF and Estofex taking a more sensible approach and pointing them out, though stating it is very uncertain whether they'll initiate.

If they do, I look forward to seeing loads of pics as I'm out of the zone today.

[Staffordshire]

Anyone got the CAPE models for 12z - 15z - 18z for tommorow?

[Chris.R]

Not shure if I should post this in the other convective thread, but in the last hour skies have cleared and the temperature is rocketing. As soon as you walk out the heat just hits you! Feeling so humid and tropical out there. If there was ever a time it felt thundery, this is it!

Btw, weren't the 2 convective threads going to be merged so we don't have to keep switching between them'?

[Neilsouth]

Is it me or are the highest potential areas pushing North all of a sudden for Monday. Do you think there is a possibility I might actually miss out?

There is ALWAYS a possibility of missing a storm, you've been here long enough to know that :p

[weatherobsuk]

Ac Cas field now beginning to unify across Cheshire as planned. Can see it myself from the SW facing window and its no doubt a collective cloud thicker than the lower Ac Cas surrounding it. Buxton peaking at 23.8'c, which may be enough to push the cap even this early on.

[pinball wizard]

Anyone got the CAPE models for 12z - 15z - 18z for tommorow?

Here is 12z: http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110626/06/30/ukcapeli.png

here is 15z http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110626/06/33/ukcapeli.png

here is 18z http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110626/06/36/ukcapeli.png

It's all in the Netweather data centre gfs is free.

Edited June 26, 2011 by pinball wizard

[knocker]

Anyone got the CAPE models for 12z - 15z - 18z for tommorow?

I assume you meant SB CAPE.

[solar minimum]

Not looking good for us In Tamworth again, I will be very surprised if I see anything other than the odd rumble of thunder with heavy rain! Thinking back to the 1980's and early to mid '90s we did quite well for storms here especially overnight ones,the BBC very rarely mention the word thunderstorm unless it's a nowcast situation or after the fact.

[Costa Del Fal]

Been some Ac cas here as well and quite hot now already. The Fax and models are certainly interesting for Western and West Central regions especially tonight. Something to watch out for definitely.

[Cheshire Gap]

Ac Cas field now beginning to unify across Cheshire as planned. Can see it myself from the SW facing window and its no doubt a collective cloud thicker than the lower Ac Cas surrounding it. Buxton peaking at 23.8'c, which may be enough to push the cap even this early on.

So from that, you think there are possibities of storms? Also you mention 'enough to push the cap'. Is cap something to do with dew points and moisture in the air?

CG

[AWD]

Been some Ac cas here as well and quite hot now already. The Fax and models are certainly interesting for Western and West Central regions especially tonight. Something to watch out for definitely.

Still to far Bl**dy north for me!!

Interesting times nevertheless, the Met Office are keeping my hopes alive with their forecast!!

[TEITS]

What's confusing me is that the Met Office are forecasting thundery showers coming up from the South West over England and Wales! I didn't think this was the case at all!

I thought they were coming up from France heading into the South East and East Anglia! Totally different to what the Met are saying!!

I haven't seen no recent charts to suggest any thundery activity for south west England, the West Country and Wales!!

A very confused AWD!!

I mentioned this yesterday.

During tomorrow showers will break out across W areas during the afternoon. As they move E they have the potential to develop into rather severe storms especially across E areas during the evening. At the moment it looks to me as though Lincs/Cambs/Fens look favourable locations if you're storm chasing. During the early hrs of Tuesday morning storms could move NE from France and reach SE parts especially Kent.

[richep]

Would you include somerset in that Blizzards

[Chris K]

Still to far Bl**dy north for me!!

Interesting times nevertheless, the Met Office are keeping my hopes alive with their forecast!!

I feel your pain, I haven't had a storm yet where I live since a couple of years ago, and it seems to circle around this area and always avoid us Maybe something will happen in the next couple of days ey?

[weatherobsuk]

Its looking like the convergence zone across the Cheshire Plain/Mersey Estuary will be enough lift to break the cap currently in place (aswell as DPs from the estuary giving it that extra moisture needed), orographic lift will also come into play further along past Lancs holding the cell/s at bay as they begin to transition NE out into the North Sea. If you draw a line between Liverpool and Newcastle I certainly would be watching out for today's potential.

[NorthYorksWeather]

Help needed!. Gfs and various other models showing convective showers this evening for North Yorkshire, plenty of weather websites forecasting this aswell, yet bbc forecast has us completly dry :S. Gfs has a dark blue blob over us for 21.00 hrs so either gfs is crap or bbc are holding back, any opinions appreciated muchly

vizzy2004

[pinball wizard]

Help needed!. Gfs and various other models showing convective showers this evening for North Yorkshire, plenty of weather websites forecasting this aswell, yet bbc forecast has us completly dry :S. Gfs has a dark blue blob over us for 21.00 hrs so either gfs is crap or bbc are holding back, any opinions appreciated muchly

vizzy2004

Hi, you stand a 50/50 chance of seeing something, your best bet will be to chill out and forget about storms for a good 4 hours or so and then have a look at the radars e.g. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/ to see whats happening. These situations can be difficult to predict and to pinpoint exact locations that will see storms can be almost impossible even 6 hours away. Good luck.

[NorthYorksWeather]

Hi, you stand a 50/50 chance of seeing something, your best bet will be to chill out and forget about storms for a good 4 hours or so and then have a look at the radars e.g. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/ to see whats happening. These situations can be difficult to predict and to pinpoint exact locations that will see storms can be almost impossible even 6 hours away. Good luck.

Hi, thanks for the reply, ive got nw extra so im gonna be glued to the radar later, doesnt matter if the storms dont come to York ive got a car with a ful tank of diesal so im confident i will find something today, either bbc or gfs is gonna be terribly wrong, fingers crossed its bbc.