Model Output Discussion

[conor123]

This weekend looks glorious for many with plenty of sunshine and temperature's into the low 20s.

Business as usual returns next week though..

[SP1986]

I think the 06z is a VAST improvement based on any before it, and furthermore it is supported by the ensembles. In the near time high pressure holding on just past the weekend, which is a fairly new development. What this means is potential for 4-5 days of temperatures into the 20's for a good majority of England and Wales (maybe eastern Scotland).

[Milhouse]

This weekend looks glorious for many with plenty of sunshine and temperature's into the low 20s.

Business as usual returns next week though..

This weekend isnt looking bad at all. Maybe i'm not so enthusiastic over prospects for us because it looks like low pressure will be close enough to introduce a light northerly restricting temperatures a little. But some widespread dry and warm weather looks likely according to the 6z, and as Stephen says it does have a fair bit of support.

[Methuselah]

I really don't think the entire run is all that bad: something for everyone, I think.

[mushymanrob]

I think it looks pretty poor going forward Mushy, solid agreement on the raising of heights over Greenland and thus development of a elongated trough from Scandinavia towards the UK, next week looks rather cool and potentially quite wet depending on exactly where the trough sets up.

id agree that the 00z wasnt very good, but i was commenting on the general theme of the models collectively. i dont think they are 'bad' and would currently deliver us a pretty pleasant, quite sunny and mainly dry summer.

[mushymanrob]

no comments on the 12z?...

interestingly its another run that is keen on delaying the next atlantic trough due early next week... as does the ukmo 12z. however, ultimately it only has one way to go given strong greenland high and azores high.. for it to 'miss' us and not sit around nw europe for some time there needs to be a significant synoptic shift. and this isnt forecasted.

however, to me it looks like another run that suggests alot of warmth, sun, and little rain. not a heatwave, clearly, but more nice average/slightly above average temps... again, id discribe it as 'pleasant'.

[Eugene]

As ever any unsettled weather is pushed back again, continuing the warm and settled theme from June, the ground is very dry indeed around here, not even plumes deliver notable rain anymore here.

Edited June 29, 2011 by Eugene

[January Snowstorm]

As ever any unsettled weather is pushed back again, continuing the warm and settled theme from June,

You must be on a different planet to your Irish neighbours!

Perhaps the above is true for your location, but it's been cool and wet here for the whole month of June

[Eugene]

This looks very nice chart indeed mid 20's C possible in the midlands

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1262.png

[Geordiesnow]

There has been hints in the model output for the weekend that we may see our high move just to the North of Scotland allowing the small threat of some sort of Easterly drift which may bring some low cloud so keep an eye on that but at this stage, it does look unlikely this will happen and it probably won't happen for long anyways.

The trend is for temperatures to rise as we head into the weekend but of course not the sort of temperatures that some have experienced but at least Northern Ireland and Western Scotland should join in with the sunshine and warmth this time.

Certainly can't see much in the way of an washout for the foreseeable future so hopefully that will continue to keep the doom and gloom folk silent for a while.

[Gibby]

UKMO tonight shows High pressure moving in from the SW over the next few days to give pleasant, bright conditions and a pretty decent weekend for many with warm but not humid conditions with sunny spells and no more than the chance of a shower.. As we move into next weekend Low pressure is shown to move in from the Atlantic with some showers for many by Tuesday with some more prolonged rain reaching the SW later.

GFS shows a similar setup up to the end of the weekend but is less decisive on bringing weakening Low pressure in next week keeping relatively fine, bright and warm conditions up until Tuesday. After then the charts show Low pressure of sorts take hold with showers or rain at times though High pressure never far from the south brings regular breaks in the showers to the south to make overall conditions not too bad there. Winds are always shown between SW and NW so normal temperatures seem likely with slightly warmer conditions than normal in the south in the drier spells.

ECM also seems to have given us another dry day next Monday to go with the run between now and then as High pressure moves in from the SW and declines only slowly later in the weekend. A few isolated showers could occur though at times in the afternoons in the slack conditions shown. Later through the week things turn decidedly unsettled as deep low pressure centres first west of Scotland then over the UK bringing copious heavy, thundery showers for all regions on a brisk SW wind lasting through to the end of the run and no doubt beyond.

The most unsettled model tonight is ECM with plenty of rain and thundery showers from Tuesday of next week. GFS on the other hand keeps things a lot more indecisive as Low pressure is much weaker allowing high pressure to the SW to be more influential at times especially in the south. Despite no heatwave on offer from any model tonight if GFS verifies some places in the south might not see too much rain and see reasonable enough temperatures most days.

[Eugene]

Despite no heatwave on offer from any model tonight if GFS verifies some places in the south might not see too much rain and see reasonable enough temperatures most days.

Yes heatwave is overused BUT i feel GFS especially will offer more than just reasonable temps by sunday/monday with temps around 24C in the midlands and i feel a 27C in EA or the SE so not far off what some call a heatwave.

[ANYWEATHER]

I think ,we have to look at the models and see that there is an a pretty sure indication that the weather will turn unsetteld later next week.....

[Kentish Kiwi]

I think ,we have to look at the models and see that there is an a pretty sure indication that the weather will turn unsetteld later next week.....

Ahh, those charts say 'Wednesday the 22nd of June'?

[chapmanslade]

Ahh, those charts say 'Wednesday the 22nd of June'?

They do indeed and look how far away they are from what we will get this Saturday. Shows how charts from 10 days out are pretty flakey. Much deeper low and further East than is going to happen.

Eugene - have you looked out the window in June at all ? The soil is MUCH wetter here than 3 weeks ago having had close on 5 inches of rain in June (admit 55mm was in 90 minutes of June). I'm not that far away from you.

[TonyH]

Warwickshire has been on the dry side. 42mm in Coventry for example and as the past week has been mostly dry there the soil could well have dried out. A very dry first 6 months of this year in fact.

[mushymanrob]

Certainly can't see much in the way of an washout for the foreseeable future so hopefully that will continue to keep the doom and gloom folk silent for a while.

i dont think ive seen any 'doom and gloom' posts for a while tbh, thankfully so far those fears that i myself expressed earlier in the season have not come into fruition.

the ecm this morning is at odds with the ukmo and gfs... it brings on a much more vigorous longwave much sooner then the gfs and ukmo, both of which seem intent on delaying its arrival and weakening its intensity.

inerestingly the gfs has shifted the greenland block and presents us with a new option, a siberian/scandinavian block. this would roast europe! and would increase our chances of importing some heat IF the atlantic longwave stalls long enough to our west and isnt too close.

the models have slowly improved away from a cooler, changable prospect, to an average / above average one. whilst theres no heatwave progged atm, the synoptics arnt that far away from a possible hotter evolution. of course things might not pan out like this, subsequent runs might well downgrade these chances and revert back to the cooler/changable option which the ecm still champions.

[Gibby]

It looks like UKMO this morning has further extended the dry weather out till late Tuesday/Wednesday away from the far NW and shows the High pressure from the SW over the next few days seem very reluctant to give ground meaning dry, bright and warm weather for most areas spare the odd shower before more generally unsettled conditions arrive from the west next Wednesday.

GFS follows a similar pattern also bringing unsettled conditions across the UK next Wednesday. From then on GFS keeps a mobile Westerly flow over the UK between High pressure to the SW and Low pressure crossing just to the North of Britain. Bands of rain then showers would affect Northern areas frequently with some in the south too but ridges of High pressure crossing the south at times would interrupt the unsettled theme with some short fine and warmer conditions.

ECM completes the hat trick with fine and pleasantly warm conditions up until Tuesday of next week away from the far NW being replaced by Wednesday with rain and showers moving in from the west in association with slow moving Low pressure to the NW then over the UK until the end of the run. The showery days could well see some of them being heavy and thundery but with some pleasant sunny intervals between in a run of days with average temperatures.

We see a further extension to the dry conditions this morning out until next Wednesday. Temperatures will be in the low 70's for many areas of the south and 25C in the Southeast is easily possible early next week. Thereafter, Low pressure does move in from Wednesday on, delivering the heady mix of sunshine and showers that have been a frequent occurrence so far this summer and temperatures near to normal. GFS keeps Low pressure more mobile with the run continuing the possibility of some drier, brighter spells in the south.

[VillagePlank]

Min, Max, and Mean of 00z GEFS ensembles (London)

Edited June 30, 2011 by Sparticle

[ANYWEATHER]

I think ,we have to look at the models and see that there is an a pretty sure indication that the weather will turn unsetteld later next week.....

Those were indeed the wrong charts I posted last night but does go to show how wrong the models can be that far out, anyway a nice spell of weather coming up but it all gets watered down next week by a slow moving area of low pressure, ECM AND GFS ,both show the likely outcome.... <_<

[johnholmes]

Min, Max, and Mean of 00z GEFS ensembles (London)

again from about the 7th shows the widening difference between the warmest and coldest ideas from the model-the date remains as yesterday for the major change though

[Glacier Point]

Tropical modelling shows a bit more coherence today with GFS and UKM broadly agreeing on a high amplitude MJO wave to develop in the western Indian Ocean / Sea of Arabia during end week 1 / week 2.

Composites for this phase put the longwave trough or closed low on top of the UK, which has broad concensus from the ensemble mean products, although the depth of the trough looks shallow enough to sustain showery rainfall rather than persistent frontal rain, especially for the south.

However, we need to factor in the response of the Global Wind Oscillation, which captures the extra-tropics as well as the tropics. A strong MJO wave is likely to initiate +ve mountain torque and sharp increase in tendency in relative angular momentum driving the GWO into a high amplitude phase 4 (and therefore not coupled with the MJO phase). Composites for this phase place the mean trough / cut off feature in a number of possible locations but the broad gist seems to be slightly west of the UK, and trending further west over time as the westerly winds generated by the mountain torque flux poleward. Heights over Scandinavia should remain robust and the further south and east you are, the better your prospects to pick up some of the warmth likely advected on the eastern flank of the trough.

Noticeable how the short to medium range NWP has likely rushed the onset of the trough next week, now Wednesday as opposed to Sunday when first modelled.

[VillagePlank]

again from about the 7th shows the widening difference between the warmest and coldest ideas from the model-the date remains as yesterday for the major change though

Yes, it seems like the models are really struggling about what to do after the 7th, whilst before it is a matter of magnitude rather than direction. I suspect the options are a slight opening near the GIN corridor for a stream of LP after LP, or Atlantic blocking that simply closes the door

The temperature ensembles suggest that first low will almost certainly get through (the dip in temperatures) the question is what happens after that?

Edited June 30, 2011 by Sparticle

[shedhead]

Hi GP

As a new and relatively inexperienced member, could I please ask that when you do an update such as the one above, can you simply conclude in lay mans terms what your thoughts mean for this part of the world.

Something along the lines of...... the above should result in drier, warmer conditions, with LP to the west meaning more of a southerly flow.

I'm sure to many on here drawing a conclusion from what you post is obvious/easy, but there must be others like me that would welcome a greater degree of clarification via a simple one liner.

Cheers

Tony

Edited June 30, 2011 by shedhead

[johnholmes]

Yes, it seems like the models are really struggling about what to do after the 7th, whilst before it is a matter of magnitude rather than direction. I suspect the options are a slight opening near the GIN corridor for a stream of LP after LP, or Atlantic blocking that simply closes the door

The temperature ensembles suggest that first low will almost certainly get through (the dip in temperatures) the question is what happens after that?

I doubt before mid July we can see anything that would suggest any major warmth developing. Beyond that and the signals, as GP suggests, are not clear and it might get warmer but it might not! 50:50 at the moment to me.

Hi GP

As a new and relatively inexperienced member, could I please ask that when you do an update such as the one above, can you simply conclude in lay mans terms what your thoughts mean for this part of the world.

Something along the lines of...... the above should result in drier, warmer conditions, with LP to the west meaning more of a southerly flow.

I'm sure to many on here drawing a conclusion from what you post is obvious/easy, but there must be others like me that would welcome a greater degree of clarification via a simple one liner.

Cheers

Tony

the last sentence of his 3rd para is perhaps what you are seeking Tony?

Edited June 30, 2011 by johnholmes