3rd Aug 2011 - Storm/convective Forecast Discusion And Reports

[Static Prevails]

If it does make a difference and Stoke gets a thunderstorm I shall not be impressed though I shoudn't be surprised it's happened before!

Even if there was a solid wall of thunderstorm approaching which was 40 miles long and 10 miles wide, we'd still go through the gap with the weakest precip lol

Oh my, that reminds me of late April this year. A storm formed in the northern Pennines, and it backbuilt all the way to Sheffield! It continued to backbuild, until it saw 'Chesterfield' on the map, and it then decided to retreat again. After getting two rumbles whilst hearing reports that Sheffield had a strong storm with hail, it's needless to say I wasn't amused.

[Polar Bear]

Thanks harry for your thoughts and map which I could pick up. Hmm interesting stuff and tomorrow looks fun for some. With all this high himudity and instability I actually wonder are underestimating? That is a question to ye all.

[Staffordshire]

What's the weekend looking like?

[Lancashire Lass]

Mackerel sky here also. Glad some of us are seeing some action.

[Harry]

I had that today from UKASF. It's annoying, isn't it? :lol:

It didn't make a difference though, nothing has happened today bar the odd thundery shower in Central Southern England.

It's nice to see you've included your area in the main risk zone.

No, but joking aside, I'd agree with that! Tomorrow will hopefully be much, much better than today.

Lol, I thought someone might say that.

There's a simple explanation given what the various charts are saying, these are the areas I believe stand a chance of seeing storms. Incidentally, where I actually live is not inside my orange zone, where I work however is, along with most other charts posted on the net.

All my charts are, are an amalgamation of others plus what I believe to be the most likely.

For instance, I believe the UKWW chart to be somewhat too conservative in terms of area. I believe the UKASF to be nearer the money, although would plump (as I have) for a median of the too...that said the latest MetO Invent chart throws an interesting spanner in there and I am intrigued to see what GFS 12z will reveal.

[Static Prevails]

Lol, I thought someone might say that.

There's a simple explanation given what the various charts are saying, these are the areas I believe stand a chance of seeing storms. Incidentally, where I actually live is not inside my orange zone, where I work however is, along with most other charts posted on the net.

All my charts are, are an amalgamation of others plus what I believe to be the most likely.

For instance, I believe the UKWW chart to be somewhat too conservative in terms of area. I believe the UKASF to be nearer the money, although would plump (as I have) for a median of the too...that said the latest MetO Invent chart throws an interesting spanner in there and I am intrigued to see what GFS 12z will reveal.

Haha, I thought I should get in there first. Your map is accurate to what the current risk is. I noticed soon after posting that most of, if not all of Kent wasn't in the orange zone. I was just too lazy to edit it. :lol:

I expect the 12z to display more potential than it has of late, although some people will end up disappointed with the run. Of course, I'm talking rubbish and anyone who takes me opinions seriously needs their head examining.

[davehsug]

If it does make a difference and Stoke gets a thunderstorm I shall not be impressed though I shoudn't be surprised it's happened before!

Even if there was a solid wall of thunderstorm approaching which was 40 miles long and 10 miles wide, we'd still go through the gap with the weakest precip lol

Come on Crewe Stoke getting a storm? Doesn't happen mate. We get a few rumbles & then watch it explode as it heads north into the Moorlands!

[Nick F]

Netweather forecast for tomorrow:

Convective / Storm forecast - Issued 02/08/2011 22:00

Valid: 03/08/2011 10:00 - 04/08/2011 06:00

Headline: ...THERE IS A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST...

Synopsis

A large upper low and surface lows lie to the west of UK, with a slack hot and humid airmass across central and eastern England during Wednesday, with a slow-moving cold front expected lie from IoW to Scarborough at 12z.

... SE and E ENGLAND, E MIDLANDS, ...

A quasi-stationary weak cold front will lie roughly from central S England up to NE England during Wednesday afternoon. To the east of the front will exist a hot and humid airmass - which will become unstable by the afternoon as temperatures reach high 20s - 30 deg C - with SBCAPE values of 400-700 j/kg indicated by GFS from SE England up towards N Yorks. Therefore scattered thunderstorms are likely to develop here with not too much CINH. Weak vertical shear will limit storm organisation, though storms are likely to be focused and slow-moving near wind convergence zones running N across E England ahead of front... and with high precipitable water content (PWAT up to 30mm) of hot humid airmass, there is a risk of localised large rainfall totals in a short space of time with risk of flash flooding. Also any storms may be accompanied by hail, gusty winds and frequent CG lightning.

Also can be found here: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=

[Costa Del Fal]

18Z NAE shows a very small but light Precip zone around here tomorrow morning like the Meto Invent but nothing significant. Showers still forecast for the Midlands tomorrow on the NAE. Thursdays rain keeps way from the West Midlands (as per usual!) and heads for the South and South East. Further changes ahead anyway I suspect.

[Staffordshire]

18Z NAE shows a very small but light Precip zone around here tomorrow morning like the Meto Invent but nothing significant. Showers still forecast for the Midlands tomorrow on the NAE. Thursdays rain keeps way from the West Midlands (as per usual!) and heads for the South and South East. Further changes ahead anyway I suspect.It hasn't rained here in ages! The grass is yellow!

[Costa Del Fal]

18z GFS for tomorrow doesnt reveal much change with perhaps a little movement North and West. As much as i like the Meto Invent, the rest of the models clearly disagree and thus so do I.

[Phil UK]

(Blatantly nicked from 2nd August Storm/Convective thread...)

Snow Raven :

I'm a tad confused (it doesnt take much) - but having read through the convective forecast discusion & reports for today, there seems to be a thread already started for tomorrow at 8pm today that has 2 pages of chat to wade through already. Is there any way of holding off the excitment for the next days lack of potential a bit later?I'm a tad confused (it doesnt take much) - but having read through the convective forecast discusion & reports for today, there seems to be a thread already started for tomorrow at 8pm today that has 2 pages of chat to wade through already. Is there any way of holding off the excitment for the next days lack of potential a bit later?

It's like Christmas, Snow Raven. You wait with anticipation and expect what you asked for. But only to find that instead of an X-Box, you end up with your Aunties badly knitted socks. Or in the case of Solihull and Cheltenham to date where storms are concerned... Bugger all!

Still, it's August and I've seen some very severe storms around this time of year. 2003 springs to mind with the hottest UK temperatures on record and that Sunday morning (12th I think?). WOAH!!

But this is Solihull 2011 so...

Phil.

(Self Edit : Snow Raven, not Storm Raven!! Must have storm in my mind).

Edited August 2, 2011 by Phil UK

[Chris K]

Although looking past tomorrow, its a shame the mass of precipitation predicted by the BBC for the W/SW of England on Thurs morn isnt expected to be anything electrical. However, by the tone of the local forecast, we could be getting an impressive amount of rain!

[Weather Wizard]

Terrible estofex for tommorow

[maxemoo]

Must remember that tommorrow is bin day and that not all rumbling sounds will be thunder!!!!!!!!

Edited August 2, 2011 by 1200max

[lewisosd]

Must remember that tommorrow is bin day and that not all rumbling sounds will be thunder!!!!!!!!

haha lol! Same ere! Bins will be coming in tomorrow!

[Paul Sherman]

Looking great for the Usual Suspects tomorrow. Lolz

So thats Just West of London around the M4 Area, then a SW-NE Line from North of London (UHI) And running up through North West Essex around the M11 Corridoor to the Norwich Area, My Risk box would be from NW Surrey to Norwich and the Western Extent probably around the Swindon area up towards Oxford and onto the East Midlands and onto Lincs.

Places South East of London might not be favoured by this and most probably the Eastern Thames Corridoor towards SE Essex will probably miss out also.

Much like today really.

Enjoy

[Cheshire Freeze]

.

If you can't say anything that will bring storms to Crewe, don't say anything at all

[MP-R]

Although looking past tomorrow, its a shame the mass of precipitation predicted by the BBC for the W/SW of England on Thurs morn isnt expected to be anything electrical. However, by the tone of the local forecast, we could be getting an impressive amount of rain!

Yet only 3mm of rain predicted by N-W. We will have to see.

[ZONE 51]

Saw those cells build up tuesday evening although missed here, they did not quite make the height but looked great.

So i look foward to the next chance and i think that will be more widespread, and i like the post from Paul S! i could be just in there or at least il see them track by!

[Costa Del Fal]

18z NMM good for the West Midlands for most of the day until evening when the risk is reserved for the East but nice to see most of the models pushing the risk back West a bit tonight that involves more within the risk zone. All to play for tomorrow. Lincolnshire down to Cambridgeshire is the place to be tomorrow I think.

[ZONE 51]

Taking another look at the charts this is GFS 18z - i dont expect much change on the next run.

A hot and humid day to come in East Angia and the South East, with other areas very warm for most.

it is likely to feel hotter than tuesday in some places.

the storms developing in Central and Eastern and Se England set of by the hot humid airmass and convergence.

some thunderstorms becoming intense and with areas at risk of flash flooding.

GFS-18z

-CAPE-3pm

-Lifted index-12pm

-CAPE and Lifted index at 6pm

-Theta-W-850hpa-3pm-GFS

-Theta-850hpa-3pm-NAE

-surface wind-convergence line(marked)3pm

-surface wind-same chart as above(un-marked)3pm

-covergence line-GFS - 3pm(marked yellow line)

-surface wind-NAE - 3pm(circled area of interest)

-convective cloud and soaring index-3pm-GFS

-surface temperatures - NAE at 3pm

[Aaron]

Wow, today could be my lucky day, all those charts put me in a good position for once this year! (don't want to jinx it, though)

[Coast]

Here we go then. UKASF seems to have been covered earlier in the thread so here's ESTOFEX's take on today:

Storm Forecast

Valid: Wed 03 Aug 2011 06:00 to Thu 04 Aug 2011 06:00 UTC

Issued: Tue 02 Aug 2011 21:36

Forecaster: PUCIK

A level 1 was issued for Northern Italy and surroundings mainly for large hail, marginally severe wind gusts and to the lesser extent for excessive precipitation.

SYNOPSIS

At midlevels of troposphere, a filling trough is forecast to move across Western Europe, deamplifying and with weakening flow at its forward flank. The trough is a part of a large cyclonic vortex over Atlantic, which remains stagnant and centered to the southwest of Iceland. East of the trough a ridge will stretch from the Mediterranean, across parts of Central Europe to Scandinavia. On its forward flank a cut-off low, centered over Belarus around noon, will move to the southeast.

The best conditions for thundestorms will be observed to the east of a deformed surface frontal boundary, stretching across Western and Southwestern Europe on the forward flank of the trough. Even though large portions of Germany and France should see scattered thunderstorms during the day, severe threat should stay low or only marginal due to the unfavorable vertical wind profiles and unimpressive CAPE values. The best thermodynamic conditions will be present across the western Mediterranean, but due to the high CIN values, initiation is very unlikely.

Not much for us and very little for NW France and Benelux which I am surprised about. Hey ho, what do the other sources show?

Hmmmm 21st OWS not covering us today but hey do have the Dutch/Belgium/German storms.......

Their Met Office interpretation has that far East Anglia patch:

Aviation report has the France/Benelux thing going on, but not us :unsure:

The KO index has the Northern East Anglia 'blob' and Benelux, so backs up that thought a little:

Likewise the soaring index:

Nice lump of CAPE over the EA region and something down in the SE corner too!

Start with a little bit of shear:

Throw in the parcel layer depth:

Add a pinch of convective rain:

A teaspoon of LCL:

Not too much on the lapse rates though ( :unsure: ) :

Pop it in the oven on a high setting and head towards Kings Lynn around tea time!!!!

[Nick F]

If I were to chase today, I'd probably pick the M11 north through towards Cambs, looking quite good atm for storm development across western East Anglia Lincs area. Storms should be fairly slow-moving and forming along wind-convergence/sea breeze front that is likely to develop inland across eastern England this afternoon. Given weak winds aloft and convergence - potentialfor some funnel sightings. 00z Herstmonceux ascent shows PWAT (precipitable water) value of 30mm - which is rather high - so some very heavy localised rainfall likely from storms with risk of flash flooding.

Netweather storm forecast for today: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=