22nd into 23rd Aug 2011 - Storm/convective Forecast Discussion And Reports

[Adi F]

I am just back from Portsdown Hill were I was with sendandreturn and although we did see some very distant lightning earlier in the evening it was not that great. I am back home to check if it is worth heading east now or call it a night

[MR CB]

Heavy rain drops falling as I wind down...very welcome...oooohh getting heavy

[Harry]

Well MetO Invent is very keen on delivering convective systems across the SE in the coming hours...somewhat concerned that it's projects over the next few hours have Frenchie about 70 miles further West...

[Eskimo]

I still believe frenchie has run out of puff...BUT, I have noticed that line of rain to the west of frenchie is beginning to intensify, I think that's where we need to look!

[Robbie Garrett]

Well MetO Invent is very keen on delivering convective systems across the SE in the coming hours...somewhat concerned that it's projects over the next few hours have Frenchie about 70 miles further West...

I noticed that, maybe what ever is west is going to give us the storms, maybe frenchie was not forecasted. Who knows, it's a guess game now.

[Adi F]

I get home and the strike alert is going off more now than it has all evening.

[winter watcher]

Well MetO Invent is very keen on delivering convective systems across the SE in the coming hours...somewhat concerned that it's projects over the next few hours have Frenchie about 70 miles further West...

I cannot see this turning a NW route though harry. We may get some activity from that second line which is SW to the main band but as for Frenchie it think she is heading for the eastern sea. With Any action confined to the deep SE.

[ITSY]

interesting...oh well, lets wait to see what comes in from our East - which is where a lot of the action will be after 0200 i think. even so - i think coastal areas will be worst affected and everywhere else will just be wet. fun fun!

[Harry]

And while I think of it, before I sneak off for a few hours sleep (setting alarm for 3, maybe 2.30am lol)...do NOT judge the nights prospects on what's occurring now at midnight....it was never forecast, by ANY model, to be raining/thundering anywhere near to the UK coastline before midnight (as it is currently)...it was ALWAYS, be even the most enthusiastic of models, from between 1 and 2am onwards peaking around 3-6am....so because Frenchie appears to be weakening do not rule the whole night out...even Frenchie, on here E and SE side has got some vibrant echoes and electrical activity attached....MCS', unless you witnessed as many over the years as I have, are living, breathing, firey machines who, much like computers, have their own minds and do the most unexpected things...in Frenchie there are numerous updraughts and downdraughts and a LOT of unstable air to her S, E and NE.

Rule her out at your peril I say...the doom mongerers well over and hour ago said she was finished, weakening etc...she still has significant red zones (and white to the E flank) on radar an hour later.....

Plus other cells which are yet to erupt....

[john mac]

Havent been on here foralittle while, but some things just dont change, negativityand moaning lol. Definately worth staying up for ab bit yet!!

[Purplepixii]

BBC currently forecasting 50mm to 2" of rain plus thunder and lightning from around 6am in Hants across to Kent. I left Southampton 30 mins ago and it was torrential rain but it's bone dry here at home. Do we write off the Tstorm totally I wonder...?

[weatherobsuk]

Brussels webcam. Not skywards unfortunately

http://www.camvista.com/watch-live-video/europe/belgium/brussels_live_web_camera.html

[ZONE 51]

Its not to be alarmed at the large area of ppn and storms breaking up(its not as far as i see)these multi cells developing inland, as interactions with airmasses cause severe cells to set off across central south and se enland and moving ne, or nne, expect the unexpected, and these lightings being very bright to wake up those a sleep with windows! radio mw or lw turn tuner to furthest left(where no music and quite noise is or buzz)turn volume so your hear crackling or fuzzy type crackes, set volume low so you hear it, leave it and hear it get louder as storms move nearer.

[Dean E]

New small line of convection has formed East of Jersey just behind Frenchie although in France.

Does show the potential and how things can just develop out of no where

[ZONE 51]

Its not to be alarmed at the large area of ppn and storms breaking up(its not as far as i see)these multi cells developing inland, as interactions with airmasses cause severe cells to set off across central south and se enland and moving ne, or nne, expect the unexpected, and these lightings being very bright to wake up those a sleep with windows! radio mw or lw turn tuner to furthest left(where no music and quite noise is or buzz)turn volume so your hear crackling or fuzzy type crackes, set volume low so you hear it, leave it and hear it get louder as storms move nearer.

[winter watcher]

I still believe frenchie has run out of puff...BUT, I have noticed that line of rain to the west of frenchie is beginning to intensify, I think that's where we need to look!

I do not know about that Paul. In my mind and looking at the radar it was looking good for that line out at sea but as soon as it reached the UK it seems to have lost intensity and got a lot smaller.

[Phil UK]

It's hard to remain positive

I detect an influx into the NSC tomorrow. Normally, there are two time spans where Frenchie* can deliver and they are between 11pm and 2am from home grown, and/or from a slow moving occlusion with the centre of the LP being near or around Cherbourg. (I've seen it myself with almost 24 hours of heavy and on its front edge, embedded thunderstorms. 1991 I think?) The other being between 4am and 7am. Though more common with a west-east front (August 2003 and September 1992, even in dear old Solihull).

So don't give up hope just yet. Met Office, Channel 5 and ITV weather all more or less stated that the early hours will be the most likely, predomintaly for the south east. But in this situation, anything goes.

Phil.

© SnowMania 2011*

[weatherobsuk]

Slightly better cam in Brussels, no observed lightning though.

http://www.brussels.be/artdet.cfm/4664

[Dean E]

I detect an influx into the NSC tomorrow. Normally, there are two time spans where Frenchie* can deliver and they are between 11pm and 2am from home grown, and/or from a slow moving occlusion with the centre of the LP being near or around Cherbourg. (I've seen it myself with almost 24 hours of heavy and on its front edge, embedded thunderstorms. 1991 I think?) The other being between 4am and 7am. Though more common with a west-east front (August 2003 and September 1992, even in dear old Solihull).

So don't give up hope just yet. Met Office, Channel 5 and ITV weather all more or less stated that the early hours will be the most likely, predomintaly for the south east. But in this situation, anything goes.

Phil.

© SnowMania 2011*

Haha would just like to say, Someone else named MCS 1 Frenchie, not me aha!

They did say earlier they named it that, but can't remember who they were!

[EML Network]

Yeah I'm still going to stay up till 3ish, just waiting for the PPN to hit us and then we'll see how things progress, apology's for getting dissapointed so early on, time for another coffee

[Harry]

Winter watcher, I disagree that there shifting quickly north east...what I believe to be happening is the energy within is transferring towards the East of the storm system as it begins to dissipate (that's where the highest CAPE and general instability is)...but generally, the mass is moving due North or NNE.

Also, as what has happened all day, dry air appears to be intruding around the Low which has made Frenchie much more lineated in form and also considerably weaker...what that is doing however, as we've seen today, is resetting the explosive potential in the N/NW area of France...the dry moves in from the East acting as a temporary cap allowing instability to build - as it breaks you then get explosive convection and therefore more storms!

I'm not convinced therefore Frenchie is dissipating as a result of unfavourable atmospheric conditions - I am convinced it's because of the dry air intrusion which IMO will help set off yet more cells behind her, hopefully forming yet another MCS (although of that I'm not AS convinced, though MetO Invent plus a couple of other models are indicating potential for MCS style cell clusters)

[Robbie Garrett]

Has anyone seen the stuff tailing Frenchie? North West of Le Harve?

Frenchie is still maintaining 16-32mm of rainfall at the moment, I believe - so let's not rule her out for strengthening, but has anyone also noticed the stuff forming west of Le harve? in a line from Eastbourne to Brest.

It looks like Frenchie is bigger than we think, as all of this is joined together. The cold front has only just moving through, whilst the warm front (north of Frenchie) head northbound, now I am no Meteorologist, but 1am should probably see things kick off when the warm most air is replaced by the cold air from the Atlantic.

Triple point fronts are extremely hard to get right.

Haha would just like to say, Someone else named MCS 1 Frenchie, not me aha!

They did say earlier they named it that, but can't remember who they were!

I asked someone to name it, and someone did.....

[Phil UK]

Haha would just like to say, Someone else named MCS 1 Frenchie, not me aha!

They did say earlier they named it that, but can't remember who they were!

Well it's been a long day. Credit to whom named Frenchie, "Frenchie". (I can't be @rsed to check back over 30 odd pages.

And if it doesn't pay off, MCS1 or MCS2, (Maybe an MCS3?) I think there will be a few other 'French words' spoken at some point tomorrow.

Phil.

[EML Network]

just started to rain heavily. and so it begins

[TheToastPeople]

My friend in the west tip of france just posted on facebook "really really loud thunder outside right now!" i would kill to be there right now