Ex Ts Katia To Hit The UK - Chat Thread

[Robbie Garrett]

I still think it will hit the UK from the west/south west and not as far north as it says.

[Harry]

I still think it will hit the UK from the west/south west and not as far north as it says.

I'm of that inclination too! Not entirely sure why....just a feeling!

[Radiating Dendrite]

I'm of that inclination too! Not entirely sure why....just a feeling!

I am the opposite.

I think it will continue to track further North and either hit Iceland or slide though between Iceland and Shetland.

Watch out Faroe!

[knocker]

From the latest discussion I've seen it has Katia between the Hebrides and the Faroe Islands at 12z on Monday. It does apear to be near the left exit of the jet and moving quite rapidly NE.

WTNT42 KNHC 071448

TCDAT2

HURRICANE KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 38

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011

1100 AM AST WED SEP 07 2011

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF KATIA HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE EARLY

THIS MORNING. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOW THE REMAINING

FRAGMENTS OF AN INNER EYE WALL WITH A COUPLE OF CONVECTIVE BANDS

OVER THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. IT APPEARS THAT DRY AIR HAS

WRAPPED AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION WITH DEEP

CONVECTION NON EXISTENT OVER THAT PORTION OF THE CYCLONE. THE

DVORAK T- AND CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB HAVE DECREASED AND CI-NUMBERS

FROM BOTH AGENCIES ARE NOW T4.5. THIS SUPPORTS LOWERING THE

INITIAL INTENSITY TO 75 KT. GIVEN THE MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR AND

THE LACK OF A TIGHT-INNER CORE...SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING IS

ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS KATIA BEGINS MOVING

NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD IN A DAY OR SO...THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT

THE SHEAR WILL DECREASE...HOWEVER THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING OVER

COOLER SSTS...WHICH SHOULD NEGATE THE SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE

ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR VERY

LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY UNTIL THE SYSTEM BECOMES AN

EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN 3-4 DAYS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/9. THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT

AGREEMENT SHOWING A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH DURING THE NEXT 24

HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IN A COUPLE OF

DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE

INTO THE WESTERLIES AHEAD OF A TROUGH THAT MOVES OVER THE CANADIAN

MARITIMES IN 3-4 DAYS. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN VERY GOOD

AGREEMENT EVEN DURING THE EXTRATROPICAL PORTION OF THE TRACK. THE

NEW NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THESE RELIABLE MODELS AND ONLY SLIGHT

ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE WIND RADII OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE HURRICANE WERE

EXPANDED OUTWARD BASED ON DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 41048. THE CENTER OF

KATIA IS FORECAST TO PASS VERY NEAR THAT BUOY TONIGHT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 29.2N 68.8W 75 KT 85 MPH

12H 08/0000Z 30.6N 69.6W 70 KT 80 MPH

24H 08/1200Z 32.8N 69.8W 70 KT 80 MPH

36H 09/0000Z 35.4N 69.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

48H 09/1200Z 38.1N 66.6W 70 KT 80 MPH

72H 10/1200Z 42.5N 52.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

96H 11/1200Z 51.0N 29.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

120H 12/1200Z 60.0N 8.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$

FORECASTER BROWN

Edited September 7, 2011 by weather ship

[knightrider]

Judging by the predicted track I'd say this will effect Scotland and perhaps northern Ireland and the extreme north of England but anywhere south of the Midlands should escape most of it's effects. Still if the winds where sustained 80mph gusting to 100mph like predicted then this would be 1 of the worst storms to hit the UK in some years. Certainly going to be interesting to follow it's track and I do expect the track and predicted intensity to change day by day.

[Robbie Garrett]

I'm of that inclination too! Not entirely sure why....just a feeling!

I have no scooby how JetStreams work but I think it could well be 'our' weather systems are returning to normal after a disaster of a few years. I mean yesterday really felt like the Autumn storms that I used to know. The models have not been that accurate these days anyway, so why for once should we believe these to be correct? It's only Wednesday, as people have said the best time to look at this baby is when it's hitting the Jetstream, as for all we know the Jetstream may stop it tracking north and push it eastwards??

Look at this image I have made, this is Sundays Jetstream forecast, I think that Mondays is irrelevant to this storm, and that such that Sundays Jetstream will push it to the UK/Europe with Mondays making it intensify as it hits the coast of west Ireland. That's just my thoughts??

Can anyone agree with this armchair forecast possibility?

[anvilhead]

looks like its shifting south on the 12Z gfs going on the jetstream digging more beforehand - I'm normaly wrong though!

[glasgow-guy]

Judging by the predicted track I'd say this will effect Scotland and perhaps northern Ireland and the extreme north of England but anywhere south of the Midlands should escape most of it's effects. Still if the winds where sustained 80mph gusting to 100mph like predicted then this would be 1 of the worst storms to hit the UK in some years. Certainly going to be interesting to follow it's track and I do expect the track and predicted intensity to change day by day.

23rd of may this year Scotland received 100mph winds in what was named storm of the century i honestly hope its not going to be as bad

http://news.stv.tv/scotland/west-central/251626-high-winds-cause-travel-chaos-across-scotland/

[chionomaniac]

I have no scooby how JetStreams work but I think it could well be 'our' weather systems are returning to normal after a disaster of a few years. I mean yesterday really felt like the Autumn storms that I used to know. The models have not been that accurate these days anyway, so why for once should we believe these to be correct? It's only Wednesday, as people have said the best time to look at this baby is when it's hitting the Jetstream, as for all we know the Jetstream may stop it tracking north and push it eastwards??

Look at this image I have made, this is Sundays Jetstream forecast, I think that Mondays is irrelevant to this storm, and that such that Sundays Jetstream will push it to the UK/Europe with Mondays making it intensify as it hits the coast of west Ireland. That's just my thoughts??

Can anyone agree with this armchair forecast possibility?

Whereas Robbie, we are uncertain of exactly how Katia will exactly interact with the jet stream, there are some things that we can be certain of. Firstly, when Katia reaches the North Atlantic, the fundamentals that influenced Katia's formation and strengthening as a hurricane will no longer come into play. Instead, Katia will be influenced by temperature contrasts between cold polar and warm moist tropical air of which Katia will have plenty of the latter. This is in turn is linked to the strength of the jet stream. Katia's positioning in terms of left exit of the jet stream is all important. The jet stream doesn't simply push Katia across the Atlantic.

Edited September 7, 2011 by chionomaniac

[knightrider]

23rd of may this year Scotland received 100mph winds in what was named storm of the century i honestly hope its not going to be as bad

http://news.stv.tv/s...cross-scotland/

I cant say I remember this being on the news or anything, the last major storm to effect the south of the UK was the January 2007 storm and the last I can think of in Scotland that was like major storm/hurricane force was in 2005. But maybe I just didn't watch the news that day back in May lol Did it effect mainland Scotland or was it just the Shetland isles?

Whereas Robbie, we are uncertain of exactly how Katia will exactly interact with the jet stream, there are some things that we can be certain of. Firstly, when Katia reaches the North Atlantic, the fundamentals that influenced Katia's formation and strengthening as a hurricane will no longer come into play. Instead, Katia will be influenced by temperature contrasts between cold polar and warm moist tropical air of which Katia will have plenty of the latter. This is in turn is linked to the strength of the jet stream. Katia's positioning in terms of left exit of the jet stream is all important. The jet stream doesn't simply push Katia across the Atlantic.

And I hope that red arrow on that last predicted track is wrong cause if the centre of it sweeps across the midlands like that suggests then southern England including London could be bombed by this lmao. I does look as if we are going to get a pretty windy day Sunday though before this is even due to arrive!

[Robbie Garrett]

Whereas Robbie, we are uncertain of exactly how Katia will exactly interact with the jet stream, there are some things that we can be certain of. Firstly, when Katia reaches the North Atlantic, the fundamentals that influenced Katia's formation and strengthening as a hurricane will no longer come into play. Instead, Katia will be influenced by temperature contrasts between cold polar and warm moist tropical air of which Katia will have plenty of the latter. This is in turn is linked to the strength of the jet stream. Katia's positioning in terms of left exit of the jet stream is all important. The jet stream doesn't simply push Katia across the Atlantic.

If you could show me graphically, I am more likely to understand what you're on about, but I am guessing that as the weather is different in the Polars to the Tropics? What exactly will determine this Ex-Hurricane heading straight for the UK, as I thought the upper winds affect storms and what direction they move, in this case the JetStream?

[knocker]

looks like its shifting south on the 12Z gfs going on the jetstream digging more beforehand - I'm normaly wrong though!

Doesn't look like it's shifted much south to me.

[glasgow-guy]

I cant say I remember this being on the news or anything, the last major storm to effect the south of the UK was the January 2007 storm and the last I can think of in Scotland that was like major storm/hurricane force was in 2005. But maybe I just didn't watch the news that day back in May lol Did it effect mainland Scotland or was it just the Shetland isles?

And I hope that red arrow on that last predicted track is wrong cause if the centre of it sweeps across the midlands like that suggests then southern England including London could be bombed by this lmao. I does look as if we are going to get a pretty windy day Sunday though before this is even due to arrive!

there was some damage around the central belt but the worst of the storm was further north

[knightrider]

there was some damage around the central belt but the worst of the storm was further north

Probably explains why it didn't make the national news down here cause it didn't effect populated areas of Scotland whereas I believe Glasgow and Edinborough where badly hit in 05.

[glasgow-guy]

Probably explains why it didn't make the national news down here cause it didn't effect populated areas of Scotland whereas I believe Glasgow and Edinborough where badly hit in 05.

yep i lost some roof tiles and a whole section of fence LOL in 05

[Downburst]

Getting excited about this and to be honest I hope it moves a little south. Bar far the best experience I ever had with the weather was during a violent storm force depression about 12 years ago I think, I wish I could nail it down, usual situation, late at night, windows almost buckling (single glazed then) trees bending over, humid moist air all going to normal if a little bit on edge. Went to bed hoping house would hold together. At 2.00 am I woke to a terrifying sound, now I am pretty used to one or two storms a year. Went down stairs and outside as it was so much more unusual than the normal high pitched sounds and sounds of wind hitting off trees and buildings. I heard the famous freight train sound, by far best way to describe it. Above the squally winds was a massive roar seemed to be coming from 100 feet above, somehow all around, the normal stormy sound around me but lessoned by the freight train sound, a kind of mechanical roar, like a factory or something, it was malevolent. Also I could clearly see masses of objects, tree branches and leaves and who knows what in the wind moving at about 100 feet. Exactly like a Tornado but horizontal. It was terrifying, the wird noise and the objects moving, like someone was doing it on purpose, a weird feeling. Want that feeling back though and haven't come close since the 90's.

[Iceberg]

I think ithe 12z gfs has shifted further south as the lp centre is now directly over m Scotland

Maybe 40-50 miles further south with the strongest wiNds now in central Scotland

[knightrider]

yep i lost some roof tiles and a whole section of fence LOL in 05

Sounds nasty!

Getting excited about this and to be honest I hope it moves a little south. Bar far the best experience I ever had with the weather was during a violent storm force depression about 12 years ago I think, I wish I could nail it down, usual situation, late at night, windows almost buckling (single glazed then) trees bending over, humid moist air all going to normal if a little bit on edge. Went to bed hoping house would hold together. At 2.00 am I woke to a terrifying sound, now I am pretty used to one or two storms a year. Went down stairs and outside as it was so much more unusual than the normal high pitched sounds and sounds of wind hitting off trees and buildings. I heard the famous freight train sound, by far best way to describe it. Above the squally winds was a massive roar seemed to be coming from 100 feet above, somehow all around, the normal stormy sound around me but lessoned by the freight train sound, a kind of mechanical roar, like a factory or something, it was malevolent. Also I could clearly see masses of objects, tree branches and leaves and who knows what in the wind moving at about 100 feet. Exactly like a Tornado but horizontal. It was terrifying, the wird noise and the objects moving, like someone was doing it on purpose, a weird feeling. Want that feeling back though and haven't come close since the 90's.

Wasn't the night of the 29th - 30th October 2000 by any chance was it? We had 90mph plus winds here in Essex, my bedroom window was rumbling like it was abouts to smash in :-/

[Zenarcher]

12z hasn't really changed the position of the low at all. Only thing that has changed is how deep the pressure will get. 12z doesn't go for it to get as low as the 06z run which means the means speeds won't be as strong but still it will be very stormy across Scotland especially over Western and Northern parts. Since the 00z run today it has downgraded a lot.

Low out in the Atlantic on Sunday evening,

And a close up to when it reaches here,

It will be interesting what the UKMO and ECM have to say later on.

[glasgow-guy]

I think ithe 12z gfs has shifted further south as the lp centre is now directly over m Scotland

Maybe 40-50 miles further south with the strongest wiNds now in central Scotland

god I hope your wrong i got no cash to fix my fence again

[Staffordshire]

Got a felling the jet is going to shift it right into us. More of an easterly path than a NE

[knightrider]

Hi Cumulus, just out of interest where abouts is Lichfield? Just want to get an idea of how far away you are from me if you think this storm could be heading your way!

[Staffordshire]

Hi Cumulus, just out of interest where abouts is Lichfield? Just want to get an idea of how far away you are from me if you think this storm could be heading your way!

By us I meant Britain as a whole , and in Staffordshire, West middlands.

[knightrider]

By us I meant Britain as a whole , and in Staffordshire, West middlands.

Nice, not ever so far away from me then but a fair distance! So do you think the whole of Britain will feel the effects of this?

[Robbie Garrett]

Got a felling the jet is going to shift it right into us. More of an easterly path than a NE

That's what I believe, but as me and Harry are discussing, it also depends on the High pressure to the south of the UK on the continent, believed to be the Azores high.

It's all going to be hit and miss, what one it is depends on a lot of variables I am guessing.