Ex Ts Katia To Hit The UK - Chat Thread

[Coast]

Looking likely to hit Scotland and possibly Northern Ireland on Sunday night into Monday with 65 mph winds:

[Ladyofthestorm]

Nice we often get tornados forming with weather like that. It wasnt so long ago that a tornado tore through The Isle of Lewis

In fact it happened twice.

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/56189-tornado-hits-isle-of-lewis/

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/highlands_and_islands/8173784.stm

Maybe we need a tornado watch for Lewis?

[chionomaniac]

It looks to me this morning that the met office fax charts have a little bit of all models thrown in. The shortwave thrown up by the GFS for Sunday could be interesting for southern areas with some quite warm air involved. I wonder is this a consequence of Katia disrupting the jet stream just up stream?

[Coast]

Maybe we need a tornado watch for Lewis?

I don't think he posts on here these days..........

I wonder is this a consequence of Katia disrupting the jet stream just up stream?

Yep, I'm on the same wavelength as you Chiono!

[Coast]

Nice we often get tornados forming with weather like that.

Early doors yet for the UK charts to come into range, but Sunday morning has something coming way down South!!

A really interesting weeknd of weather coming up and not just because of Katia! (can you tell I'm just an ickle bit excited )

[Radiating Dendrite]

Calm down Coast!

We may have to build you a new ramp!

Edited September 8, 2011 by Radiating Dendrite

[Aaron]

I don't blame him. Some interesting weather for once!

[Coast]

Calm down Coast!

We may have to build you a new ramp!

I already have two prepared!

Thanks again for Irish Weather Online for the following words:

The threat posed posed by Katia to Ireland and Britain

Later this week Katia, by then an extratropical low, is expected to move east across the Atlantic and track between Iceland and Ireland and the UK.

According to iWeather Online Senior Forecaster Peter O’Donnell: “There is a moderate risk of stormy weather, especially in the coastal districts of the north and west of Ireland as well as western Scotland.”

Peter said the various medium range weather models are each projecting a different path and wind speeds.

Peter’s review of latest model guidance and predicted wind speeds for northwest Ireland, including Mayo and Donegal:

GFS — holding firm on a close encounter with Donegal Bay (60 kts/111kmph, 09h Mon)

ECM — slight downgrade in terms of track, same intensity (55 kts/102kmph, 09h Mon)

NHC — similar to ECM, an extension forward of previous track & intensity

UKMO– intensifying solution relative to previous run, close (60 kts/111kmph, 06h Mon)

GEM — has slowed its solution to give a Tuesday storm (55 kts/102kmph, 12h Tues)

“The timing above would be the peak of a period of 6-9 hours of gale or storm force winds. Hurricane force wind gusts on all current guidance would be in outer Donegal Bay and beyond but only very slight changes are required to bring those much closer to land”, Peter said.

He continued: “On a different subject, we should be clear that the strongest winds in an extratropical storm are further from the centre than in a tropical system. The eye tends to be almost absent after transition and basically what you’re dealing with, is the equivalent of a major midwinter storm that formed out of the remnants of a hurricane. On the track of Katia, the transition can be expected to take place late Saturday southeast of Newfoundland. The strongest winds will be 50-150 miles southeast of the centre as it rushes across the Atlantic.”

“Maritime interests would already be plotting courses for ocean-going vessels that would avoid the entire circulation inside the 990 mb contour but especially 970-980 mbs, that’s where you would expect the hurricane force gusts to maintain (in a 960 mb storm). This is why I have been concerned about wind damage potential on land because actually if the storm passed right over Donegal, the strongest winds would shift south and hit the southern half of Ireland, and while it’s true that winds would fall off near the centre there would probably not be a calm eye or any long interval of clearing skies there at this stage.”

“When Debbie rushed past Ireland on 16-09 1961, the convention back in those days was to continue the designation “hurricane” and the concept of extratropical transition was different — so the storm is shown on historical maps as being a hurricane until about 58 deg N but in fact it probably underwent extratropical transition southwest of Ireland. Note the track of Debbie and the zone of strongest winds on land running from about Galway to Antrim, 100-200 miles east of the track of the low. Although that storm came from the Azores, the dynamics would be similar, so we need to keep Katia a good distance off the northwest coast to avoid wind damage potential, or, see a faster reduction in central pressure than most of the models have now.”

“My forecasting from here to the actual event will probably follow a 3-2 weighted ratio of ECM and GFS with slight tweaking from input of other models if they don’t fall close to that range. However, the 12 hour forecast on Sunday will involve a wider range of meso-scale factors that are becoming evident on radar and satellite imagery. At this distance out, we can only realistically model the storm in very general terms but closer to the event, troughs and meso-scale features will become apparent”, Peter concluded.

[Radiating Dendrite]

Coast, that second ramp is incredible!

Certainly a pants wetter!

[Coast]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZQw09Zhklz0

[Crimson_Sprite]

I absolutely love wind storms (albeit hurricanes, huge Lows, frontal gusts etc...) I know I shouldnt hope for such things, but I really hope we get a direct hit by Katia or the preceding Low before her, and get a super-rah,-rain-wind-end-of-days weather phenomonon

(however you spell that )

BUT of COURSE I truly would not want anyone or anyones homes damaged from the event! So I always feel guilty about wanting such things, but I really do!!! Its so exciting to have full-on weather, I miss it! Im from New Jersey originally and we always got hurricane remnants (sometimes full hits too!) and INSANE thunder and lightning, tornadoes, blizzards, etc... Of course, I always would get scared too during such events, but exhilarated at the same time!!!! I really hope for a full-on weather escapade this week-end but with no damage or loss of life

[knightrider]

This is shaping up to be a very interesting spell of weather, please come south abit Katia lol Looks like the low before Katia arrives could be wild enougth down here in the south!

[Roger J Smith]

Expect a significant wind event with this, maximum gusts likely to reach 60 mph in the south and central parts of England, 70 mph in Wales and many parts of southern Ireland, and 80-100 mph in northern parts of Ireland and western Scotland, possibly also northwest England.

Signs that the track may continue to nudge south as Katia races into a strong confluent zone and tight jet stream. The high impact zone could also shift south as a result. But I would already be quite concerned in regions like Mayo, Donegal, and the Western Isles.

Timing of strongest winds 0600-1200 Monday in Ireland to 0900-1500 western Scotland from current maps.

Full moon timed for Monday also, will cause tidal ranges to be unusually high on south and west facing coasts, large swells likely from combined effects of Katia and previous storm, and battering wave potential with some risk of storm surges into a few exposed bays (notably Galway Bay, and in western Scotland).

Edited September 8, 2011 by Roger J Smith

[knightrider]

Expect a significant wind event with this, maximum gusts likely to reach 60 mph in the south and central parts of England, 70 mph in Wales and many parts of southern Ireland, and 80-100 mph in northern parts of Ireland and western Scotland, possibly also northwest England.

Signs that the track may continue to nudge south as Katia races into a strong confluent zone and tight jet stream. The high impact zone could also shift south as a result. But I would already be quite concerned in regions like Mayo, Donegal, and the Western Isles.

Timing of strongest winds 0600-1200 Monday in Ireland to 0900-1500 western Scotland from current maps.

I do hope your right about the main impact zone shifting south, as wild as 60mph is certainly be our standards it's not wild enougth for me lol I'm a wind nut, luved the 2000 storm when we had 90mph+ gusts!

[Aaron]

60 mph gusts would be ok with me, it's what we got earlier this year and it was pretty wild and brought the odd tree down!

[January Snowstorm]

What I find odd is the lack pf predicted rainfall with the system.

By the time it reaches our shore it looks like drizzle

[knightrider]

60 mph gusts would be ok with me, it's what we got earlier this year and it was pretty wild and brought the odd tree down!

I can imagine it did, and it would do again I suspect cause the trees are still in full leaf and there's been alot of rain lately so the ground will be saturated. If their in full leaf now they wont be by this time next week, that's even if their still standing lol

[Coast]

[Harry]

Shouldn't neglect the thunderstorm risk earlier in the weekend too

[knightrider]

When do you think the BBC weather website will put out official warnings for this if any?

[Coast]

Shouldn't neglect the thunderstorm risk earlier in the weekend too

When do you think the BBC weather website will put out official warnings for this if any?

On current form, next Friday........

[Aaron]

They probably don't want to over hype it like they do with so many things!

[knightrider]

http://forum.netweat...ost__p__2129894

On current form, next Friday........

LOL yes in other words too little too late, wouldn't surprise me to be honest!

They probably don't want to over hype it like they do with so many things!

Or just totally under-hype it like they did in 1987.

[glasgow-guy]

I have a really bad feeling that this will be a nasty storm for Scotland should the models cont to confirm Katia

track the potential for wide spread damage and even loss of life is unthinkable

[knightrider]

I have a really bad feeling that this will be a nasty storm for Scotland should the models cont to confirm Katia

track the potential for wide spread damage and even loss of life is unthinkable

Well no offence to any Scots but as bad as this storm would be if it hit with the intensity it's expected too it would be better off up there where there's mountains and cow farms etc.. and it's less populated then down here in the south where we have a little town called London lmao If this storm was to unleash 100mph winds down here the deathtoll could be catastrophic!