Ex Ts Katia To Hit The UK - Chat Thread

[Liam J]

GFS and ECM keen to track her very close to and over the North of the uk as a severe depression, UKMO showing a much weaker low and nothing of note tbh.

But the track and intensity will vary between runs over the days ahead with so many factors which will effect the final depth and track of the storm.

Latest NHC track for Katia which is now including the north of the British Isles in the cone area, and yes the 'H' is still indicating hurricane force sustained wind speeds.

[Cookie]

To be honest I think the suggestions of 80mph sustained winds with gusts over 100mph are abit exagerated anyway, that kind of event would only be expected to hit the UK about once a century, twice at the most. That would be on a par with the 1987 storm, infact worse in terms of sustained winds! According to the BBC weather website the storm is going to fizzle out before it reaches the UK and other websites I've read suggest gusts of 60-70mph so quite stormy yes but nothing exceptional.

sorry the uk as a whole are you meaning their?

Ive experniced at least 4 storms in 7 years living on the isle of lewis, which is in the UK. winds gusting over 100 mph, reaching 115 mph, witnessed sustained winds of 98 mph for over 30 mins!

[knightrider]

sorry the uk as a whole are you meaning their?

Ive experniced at least 4 storms in 7 years living on the isle of lewis, which is in the UK. winds gusting over 100 mph, reaching 115 mph, witnessed sustained winds of 98 mph for over 30 mins!

Yeah ok I will make alowances for where your from but I meant mainland Britain, small islands surrounded by sea always experience higher winds then inland areas. And if the sustained winds where 98mph surely they would have gusted higher then 115mph, more like 130-140mph so I doubt it was that strong 75-80mph sustained maybe!

[Cookie]

Yeah ok I will make alowances for where your from but I meant mainland Britain, small islands surrounded by sea always experience higher winds then inland areas. And if the sustained winds where 98mph surely they would have gusted higher then 115mph, more like 130-140mph so I doubt it was that strong 75-80mph sustained maybe!

trust me, we got sustained winds of 98 mph, look at the images in my signature, haven't got the link to that night up.

[knightrider]

trust me, we got sustained winds of 98 mph, look at the images in my signature, haven't got the link to that night up.

Blimey fair enougth, that is impressive, never had anything like that down here I think even in 87 storm highest sustained winds we had where probably around 70mph and since then biggest storm I can remember was Oct 2000 when sustained winds where around 45-50mph. 98mph is boardering on a cat 3 major hurricane!

[Ladyofthestorm]

well well well, ex tropical Katia is going to give us fun and games in the North, the ECM is showing NWly gale to severe gale force locally stormforce for a time over the outer hebridies.... so an early warning for Cookie, Milkmaid and the other fellows living on Barra and on the shetland isles. Maybe I should warn myself.

I was mentally noting how readily cyclongenesis was taking place mid atlantic ( on the depression prior to Katia and thinking that its perfect for the storm to deepen, thought from what was explained to me last year this cannot bomb on us?. It is looking likely that it will most of its strongest winds to western scotland now on its Southern flank, a question for the metereologists.. why are the strongest winds on the southern flanks of depressions in the northern hemisphere?

[Iceberg]

UKMET is interesting, unlike the 00Z it initialises Katia with more energy to start with. It has a track further south, with the centre crossing mid Scotland. It also has the strong winds in the SW with 925 winds at 65kts+ so gusts in the SW approaches of 70-80mph.

[Iceberg]

I'll post this up as well it's a plot of the HWRF model with the current NHC track cone. The rest is self explanatory.

[Polar Bear]

Blimey fair enougth, that is impressive, never had anything like that down here I think even in 87 storm highest sustained winds we had where probably around 70mph and since then biggest storm I can remember was Oct 2000 when sustained winds where around 45-50mph. 98mph is boardering on a cat 3 major hurricane!

Yep and on that basis cookie....take a leaf out of NY authorities advice and evacuate asap. ............

maybe you guys on here have already touched on this and i have missed it or maybe I am plain inexperienced. But I have a couple of questions: how fast is this thing moving and likley to move at do you think? I am aware it will be difficult to tell what it will be when it gets to UK so just any thoughts. Also just how much rain will be with it. Whilst it seems for some parts of the Uk these Mph predictions of gusts seem not too dissimilar from recent days; they are stronger and the ground is geting more soaked. This can only mean more damage in areas with saturated ground?

[Liam J]

Blimey fair enougth, that is impressive, never had anything like that down here I think even in 87 storm highest sustained winds we had where probably around 70mph and since then biggest storm I can remember was Oct 2000 when sustained winds where around 45-50mph. 98mph is boardering on a cat 3 major hurricane!

Cat 2 hurricane sustained winds 96-110mph, Cat 3 hurricane sustained winds 111-130mph.

Here is the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/sshws.shtml

[peterf]

Yep and on that basis cookie....take a leaf out of NY authorities advice and evacuate asap. ............

a bit ottt dont ya think lol.we're talking hardened islanders here.

[Shadow]

Yep and on that basis cookie....take a leaf out of NY authorities advice and evacuate asap. ............

a bit ottt dont ya think lol.we're talking hardened islanders here.

Yep up here in Scotland we are used to the high winds. It will be just a breeze I think Joking aside please stay safe wherever you are.

[Cookie]

Yep and on that basis cookie....take a leaf out of NY authorities advice and evacuate asap. ............

maybe you guys on here have already touched on this and i have missed it or maybe I am plain inexperienced. But I have a couple of questions: how fast is this thing moving and likley to move at do you think? I am aware it will be difficult to tell what it will be when it gets to UK so just any thoughts. Also just how much rain will be with it. Whilst it seems for some parts of the Uk these Mph predictions of gusts seem not too dissimilar from recent days; they are stronger and the ground is geting more soaked. This can only mean more damage in areas with saturated ground?

well I sort of am evacuating, but this is a planned holiday and to be honest, if we get a storm and I miss it I will be left trouser leged off.

[Zenarcher]

18z has just finished doing Sunday and it's another downgrade.

[Nick F]

So, what do the very recently updated t+96 and t+120 faxes make of Katia? Looks very similar to 12z UKMO:

12z Sunday, it's clearly marked! And appears to be undergoing 'frontagenesis' - i.e. still developmental:

12z Monday, double-barrel merge with that slow-moving low near Scotland, but still a deep feature with tight isobars on its southern flank as it crosses Scotland:

[ZONE 51]

The developing cold front shown on the FAXs how fast can we expect that to move through?

The nose of High(azores) dont look that strong.

[Aaron]

UKMET is interesting, unlike the 00Z it initialises Katia with more energy to start with. It has a track further south, with the centre crossing mid Scotland. It also has the strong winds in the SW with 925 winds at 65kts+ so gusts in the SW approaches of 70-80mph.

Interesting..

The BBC animation map of the Atlantic show this system moving right between England and Ireland in the Irish Sea. Latest BBC forecast also put us down for 31 mph sustained winds.. still early days, all to play for!

Getting excited about this and to be honest I hope it moves a little south. Bar far the best experience I ever had with the weather was during a violent storm force depression about 12 years ago I think, I wish I could nail it down, usual situation, late at night, windows almost buckling (single glazed then) trees bending over, humid moist air all going to normal if a little bit on edge. Went to bed hoping house would hold together. At 2.00 am I woke to a terrifying sound, now I am pretty used to one or two storms a year. Went down stairs and outside as it was so much more unusual than the normal high pitched sounds and sounds of wind hitting off trees and buildings. I heard the famous freight train sound, by far best way to describe it. Above the squally winds was a massive roar seemed to be coming from 100 feet above, somehow all around, the normal stormy sound around me but lessoned by the freight train sound, a kind of mechanical roar, like a factory or something, it was malevolent. Also I could clearly see masses of objects, tree branches and leaves and who knows what in the wind moving at about 100 feet. Exactly like a Tornado but horizontal. It was terrifying, the wird noise and the objects moving, like someone was doing it on purpose, a weird feeling. Want that feeling back though and haven't come close since the 90's.

Same! I would even settle with a repeat of earlier this year when I had 41 mph sustained winds and 61 mph gusts. To experience something stronger, just once, would be an amazing experience IMO.

[ZONE 51]

GFS - 18z just if anyone missed that run then heres an update before the 00z!

[ZONE 51]

Katia has deepened on the GFS 00z

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other system ahead of K -has now slightly deepened by the looks of the tighter bars.

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a slight shift south of katia and we would have storm for England as much as the North, as we also have deepening(could go either way with the runs)then this of course causes stronger winds.

Edited September 8, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[ZONE 51]

it appears to be a bit futher south at t96 comparing to the 18z at the same time on chart.(20/30miles south)

here i have lined up the black line from the center of the storm on both charts of the same time/day and it is south. the one on left is 18z and the other 00z.

[The PIT]

Where I live it doesn't look like anything special but go a bit further north it's a different story. Again a few more days to wait until we really know the path and strengh

[Iceberg]

Right had a look at the 00Z GFS now.

Things start to get interesting from first thing Sunday morning.

A feature pre Katia is developed that swings into the SW providing 925 winds upto 55-60kts into SW and notably atm the SW south coast. Winds would be sustained 30-40mph at times, but gusting to 60-70mph IMO, bring damage to trees still in full leaf. This then sweeps across england to a lesser extent.

During Sunday night a band of blusterous wind and rain crosses the country, winds generally light but under any heavier rain the 925 winds could be brought nearer the surface so gusts to 40-50mph. This front heralds in the arrival of Katia for N.I and western Scotland, As we go through Monday sustained winds particularly for NW exposed areas could be 50-60mph with gusts to 80mph, 925's have a large area of 75kts, if we assume a 10% reduction and then convert to mph we get around 80mph, but maybe 90mph at height.

Through Monday the winds continue and spread across the northern UK and the Scotish Central Belt.

GFS does create a secondary feature after Katia but doesn't yet develop it.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

http://magicseaweed.com/msw-surf-charts2.php?chart=64&res=750&type=pressure&starttime=

Okay...

[Aaron]

http://magicseaweed....sure&starttime=

Okay...

Doesn't look like a direct hit but should be quite windy nonetheless!

[Teesdale]

Meto Fax, has a more southerly track for now.

http://www.wetterzen...pics/brack3.gif

http://www.wetterzen...pics/brack4.gif

Edited September 8, 2011 by Teesdale