Ex Ts Katia To Hit The UK - Chat Thread

[Coast]

Exactly dont think the Met Office have updated their data yet.

Ermmm, I think they are bang up to date with possibilities at this stage, I just think they are being cautious currently. If nothing is announced by Saturday evening, then I would be a little more concerned:

[knightrider]

I would rather you did not quote my posts as nonsense.

I did not say that 1987 only produced a 60mph gust.

All I asked was for some evidence of such high gusts being recorded, from a London based weather station for example.

Yes but you hinted that we hardly ever get 60mph gusts which just isn't true I can remember 65-70mph here quite regularly although it does seem to have become less frequent in the last 5 or 6 years or so, March 2004 was 1 of the last big gales we had here Jan 07 turned out to be something of an anti-climax and November 09 was strong but didn't do much damage cause the trees where already bare of leaves!

[Chris D]

Yes but you hinted that we hardly ever get 60mph gusts which just isn't true I can remember 65-70mph here quite regularly although it does seem to have become less frequent in the last 5 or 6 years or so, March 2004 was 1 of the last big gales we had here Jan 07 turned out to be something of an anti-climax and November 09 was strong but didn't do much damage cause the trees where already bare of leaves!

In Jan 2007 a gust of 77mph was recorded at Heathrow. I think it'll be hard to beat that in London. But, I'm not saying gusts cannot be higher than this is localised areas.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/guide/nswws2011/wind-warning-red.html

[knightrider]

In Jan 2007 a gust of 77mph was recorded at Heathrow. I think it'll be hard to beat that in London. But, I'm not saying gusts cannot be higher than this is localised areas.

http://www.metoffice...arning-red.html

It's weird with the 07 storm west of London seemed to get it really bad but here in Essex we had a brief spell around lunchtime when it was gusting to about 65mph other then that it was just a strong breeze lol

[Radiating Dendrite]

In Jan 2007 a gust of 77mph was recorded at Heathrow. I think it'll be hard to beat that in London. But, I'm not saying gusts cannot be higher than this is localised areas.

http://www.metoffice...arning-red.html

Yep, and Heathrow is an Airfield so is more exposed to the wind.

I appreciate that high gusts can occur, but in Central London they are a rare event. I would say probably a one in ten year event.

[Aaron]

Yes but you hinted that we hardly ever get 60mph gusts which just isn't true I can remember 65-70mph here quite regularly although it does seem to have become less frequent in the last 5 or 6 years or so, March 2004 was 1 of the last big gales we had here Jan 07 turned out to be something of an anti-climax and November 09 was strong but didn't do much damage cause the trees where already bare of leaves!

January 2007 was pretty amazing. 47 mph sustained winds here with 78 mph gusts..

[weatherobsuk]

Everyone needs to take a DEEP breath..and realise this isn't going to be the apocalyptic Hurricane 'doom' the models were forecasting extratropical-Hurricane Katia (now just extratropical Storm by the time it reaches our storms) to be. It'll carry in a warm plume while it rides along the jet, showing on the GFS as a 3-day wake behind ex-Katia, but in terms of verocity fortunately (or not depending how you view things) only the extreme northern end of the western Isles will see any gusts in excess of 60mph for a brief period, nothing they aren't used to anyway.

[Aaron]

Everyone needs to take a DEEP breath..and realise this isn't going to be the apocalyptic Hurricane 'doom' the models were forecasting extratropical-Hurricane Katia (now just extratropical Storm by the time it reaches our storms) to be. It'll carry in a warm plume while it rides along the jet, showing on the GFS as a 3-day wake behind ex-Katia, but in terms of verocity fortunately (or not depending how you view things) only the extreme northern end of the western Isles will see any gusts in excess of 60mph for a brief period, nothing they aren't used to anyway.

You're the only one saying that then. I would expect the winds to be much, much stronger in the north west of Scotland, obviously nothing too serious, but much higher than 60 mph.

[Coast]

Everyone needs to take a DEEP breath

Yes please, otherwise all the wind will be gone out of the weekends weather....

[knightrider]

You're the only one saying that then. I would expect the winds to be much, much stronger in the north west of Scotland, obviously nothing too serious, but much higher than 60 mph.

Surely anything much higher then 60mph is getting pretty serious by anybody's standards, unless you live in Florida lol

[P-M]

You're the only one saying that then. I would expect the winds to be much, much stronger in the north west of Scotland, obviously nothing too serious, but much higher than 60 mph.

To be fair anything MUCH higher than 60mph and you are entering dangerous wind speeds, in terms of falling trees and debris etc. I really don't think it's going to be a huge event, things always get ramped up (I am usually ramping) but it is forecast to lose some intensity anyway. This is not a hurricane just a typical Autumn windstorm IMO (again in terms of wind speed etc). Like SJ says we all need to take a deep breath, the worst of the winds likely to hit Scotland and they are a hardy bunch and well prepared for this event not like the Southern UK!

Edited September 8, 2011 by Paul-Michael

[Aaron]

To be fair anything MUCH higher than 60mph and you are entering dangerous wind speeds, in terms of falling trees and debris etc. I really don't think it's going to be a hige event, things always get ramped up (I am usually ramping) but it is forecast to lose some intensity anyway. This is not a hurricane just a typical Autumn windstorm IMO (again in terms of wind speed etc). Like SJ says we all need to take a deep breath, the worst of the winds likely to hit Scotland and they are a hardy bunch and well prepared for this event not like the Souther UK!

Yup, things get ramped up, but that doesn't mean it can't be something serious. Not hoping for destruction obviously! Typical Autumn storms pack punches also. Looking at the weather history for this area, gusts in excess of 60 mph are common place, and occurred regularly in 2008 and 2007.

[knightrider]

Yup, things get ramped up, but that doesn't mean it can't be something serious. Not hoping for destruction obviously! Typical Autumn storms pack punches also. Looking at the weather history for this area, gusts in excess of 60 mph are common place, and occurred regularly in 2008 and 2007.

For us down here gusts over 60mph where very common between 1996 and 2004, since 2004 things have quietened down abit.

[P-M]

Yup, things get ramped up, but that doesn't mean it can't be something serious. Not hoping for destruction obviously! Typical Autumn storms pack punches also. Looking at the weather history for this area, gusts in excess of 60 mph are common place, and occurred regularly in 2008 and 2007.

Totally agree with you there mate and believe me I have seen some windstorms in my time (70-80mph gusts) and they do cause some disruption. I think though that this is being ramped beyond ramping and seriously think we willl just see (south of the border) some strong winds. I like a good Autumn storm but think some folks may end up dissapointed when there's a slight breeze blowing through their gardens! lol

P.S If I am wrong then I will publicly aplogise!

Edited September 8, 2011 by Paul-Michael

[knightrider]

Totallt agree with you there mate and believe me I have seen some windstorms in my time (70-80mph gusts) and they do cause some disruption. I think though that this is being ramped beyond ramping and seriously think we willl just see (south of the border) some strong winds. I like a good Autumn storm but think some folks may end up dissapointed when there's a slight breeze blowing through their gardens! lol

Think you could be right for the southern half of the country but anywhere north of Tyneside could get pretty hammered

[Aaron]

The isobars are pretty tightly packed across all of the UK come Monday, so who knows, it's still a few days away so it's best to wait and see. Come Sunday I think we'll have a clear picture!

Edited September 8, 2011 by aaron

[knightrider]

The isobars are pretty tightly packed across all of the UK come Monday, so who knows, it's still a few days away so it's best to wait and see. Come Sunday I think we'll have a clear picture!

Even sunday is looking quite blowy, they've forecast gales even for then cause there's a fairly deep low before Katia even arrives!

[Crimson_Sprite]

I reckon we should have Katla erupt just as Katia is passing by Iceland and suck all the ash into the system and have a volcanicane!!!! I wonder what that would look like on satellite?

[knightrider]

I reckon we should have Katla erupt just as Katia is passing by Iceland and suck all the ash into the system and have a volcanicane!!!! I wonder what that would look like on satellite?

Lmao that would be awesome but also a natural disaster for wildlife etc.. and means more canceled flights!

[A.J]

Just been reading the last dozen or so pages of posts since yesterday & there's some ridiculous over the top posting going on in here...A reality check is seriously required by some folk!....The reality is a deep, but not unusually deep Autumnal low will bring wind and rain to the northern UK, whilst further south it'll be in most likely hood breezy with occasional rain and blustery showers.......Comparing this with the 1987 storm is ludicrous...They share virtually nothing in common, there's nearly 1000 miles difference between 1987 storm track and the most predicted strack for this system....We get Hurricane remnants every year I think affecting the UK, so nothing out of the ordinary really!

[Crimson_Sprite]

Lmao that would be awesome but also a natural disaster for wildlife etc.. and means more canceled flights!

LOL!!! true, true.... (Im still laughing...) That would be one hell of a natural disaster though wouldnt it??! Not to mention pretty cool in the most Macabre-way. Still wouldnt want any animals or people to become harmed from that, but the idea is pretty intense!

[knightrider]

Just been reading the last dozen or so pages of posts since yesterday & there's some ridiculous over the top posting going on in here...A reality check is seriously required by some folk!....The reality is a deep, but not unusually deep Autumnal low will bring wind and rain to the northern UK, whilst further south it'll be in most likely hood breezy with occasional rain and blustery showers.......Comparing this with the 1987 storm is ludicrous...They share virtually nothing in common, there's nearly 1000 miles difference between 1987 storm track and the most predicted strack for this system....We get Hurricane remnants every year I think affecting the UK, so nothing out of the ordinary really!

Yes we get hurricane remnants virtually every year but very few maintain a stormy intensity whereas it looks as if this one will, may I remind you of Ex-hurricane Lilly in 1996 when southern England experienced 90mph winds!

[Aaron]

Just been reading the last dozen or so pages of posts since yesterday & there's some ridiculous over the top posting going on in here...A reality check is seriously required by some folk!....The reality is a deep, but not unusually deep Autumnal low will bring wind and rain to the northern UK, whilst further south it'll be in most likely hood breezy with occasional rain and blustery showers.......Comparing this with the 1987 storm is ludicrous...They share virtually nothing in common, there's nearly 1000 miles difference between 1987 storm track and the most predicted strack for this system....We get Hurricane remnants every year I think affecting the UK, so nothing out of the ordinary really!

I don't think anyone is really comparing it to 1987 which was really phenomenal in the south due to gusts of 100 mph being recorded in a few locations and even 78 mph in central London, but there is quite a potent spell of windy weather to come, and this is early September keeping in mind, not known for wild Autumnal weather. Obviously we need to stay in reality but you never know, anything can happen in the world of weather!

Edited September 8, 2011 by aaron

[A.J]

Yes we get hurricane remnants virtually every year but very few maintain a stormy intensity whereas it looks as if this one will, may I remind you of Ex-hurricane Lilly in 1996 when southern England experienced 90mph winds!

You can remind me of many things if you like...lol.....but it doesn't change the fact that at the moment this particular LP system is being over-ramped to oblivion in this thread....and with that, I shall bow out and stick to the sanity of the model discussion thread!

[Paul]

Latest update from Nick now online:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=795;sess=