Ex Ts Katia To Hit The UK - Chat Thread

[Dorsetbred]

Thanks Michael, a few interesting days ahead then,watching that.

[Coast]

The lead into Sunday night:

Still looking potent:

Then Monday:

The speed and direction of the wind at the top of the boundary layer. Speed is depicted by different colors and direction by streamlines.

[The PIT]

Still some disagreement between the latest UKMO and GFS,

At 96 hours

Is the ukmo having the storm absorbed by Saturdays low. Looks like it. Interesting forecast by Mr Fish, shame about the long ramble on cooking before hand, back to his forecast which suggests away from Ireland nw Scotland just a run of the mill autumn leave remover. Still time for plenty of adjustment though.

[Liam J]

Still to early to call yet with a few different scenarios on offer from the models, I think Katia could be a standard autumn storm but still with potential for severe wind gusts of 70mph+

[Roger J Smith]

The 12z Global GEM is just out, and it has a more intense solution than the GFS, with the track about a degree further south. A very strong jet stream and polar vortex phasing from the northwest combine to keep the extratropical low very strong and heading straight in towards northwest Ireland early Monday towards the Hebrides Monday afternoon. This would place the zone of strongest winds over land in Ireland and into the central to southern parts of western Scotland. And the intensity potential is ominous, especially when I compare the 48h Regional GEM with the Global map, the details on Katia there show the storm 5 mbs deeper on the finer grid of the Regional model. Assuming a similar disparity downstream, this puts the central pressure of Katia near 960 mbs in Donegal Bay about 09z Monday.

I would be looking for confirmation of these developments on later model runs, as the scenario now unfolding has that classic look of intense Atlantic storm trapped in strong jet stream following a moderate frontal wave.

Repeating my earlier comment that the storm coincides with full moon and thus any tidal or storm surge issues would be magnified.

[January Snowstorm]

Great info Roger, thank you. It will be interesting to see what ecm does.

Track has changed quite a bit since y'day with all models now swinging it in further South than first thought.

It's all about intensity now.

I must admit the gfs ppn charts confuse me though showing it virtually dry throughout

[DAVID SNOW]

Latest on the weekend's weather plus the track of Katia with Michael Fish:

Now that is a much better picture of our Michael.

[knightrider]

Fond memories of this baby from October 2000. I scored a direct hit and broke two records at the same time.

Recorded 949.7 Mb at 04:21 30/10/00 and 91.3Mph half an hour later at 05:03.

Wind switched from an Easterly to a North westerly Instantly, and I really do mean instantly.

This was the 2000 storm I was mentioning earlier, although I'm not so sure Barnsley had 90mph winds from this sounds abit too far north to me cause I specifically remember this being a south/south-east event and we had 90mph winds here or wasn't you living in Barnsley back then Richie?

[Polar Bear]

BBC South today have just said "batten down the hatches this weekend" and all the issues with the weather on sunday and monday are down to Ex Katia"....so they have it well in their sights.

So if the south has to batten down the hatches then what will Ireland and Scotland doing...digging in?

[knightrider]

Peter Cockroft just said a pottencially stormy Monday, depends on what his definition of a storm is I suppose I guess around London that's anything over 40mph lol Hardly a storm really, just a moderate gale!

[Robbie Garrett]

What's the latest model tracks? the one with all of them?

[lfcdude]

Ian Ferguson said wide spread gales for Monday on points west

[knightrider]

BBC South today have just said "batten down the hatches this weekend" and all the issues with the weather on sunday and monday are down to Ex Katia"....so they have it well in their sights.

So if the south has to batten down the hatches then what will Ireland and Scotland doing...digging in?

Probably ordering a mass evacuation lol All the Scotts are migrating south for winter like a flock of birds haha.

[Zenarcher]

UKMO and ECM look similar at 96 hours now,

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Bit of wind and rain...Man up

[Geordiesnow]

UKMO and ECM look similar at 96 hours now,

Not really, the ECM has it further South and you can normally drop a few MB's inside the centre of the low when you see an ECM chart like that. Monday will be a windy day but the models have not firmed up how windy it will be.

From my observations, I never seen a run that would suggest that the winds will not be anything more than what we all experienced before and thats the ex hurricane/TS will turn into a normal low pressure system by the time it reaches us. Still interesting stuff though.

[Chris D]

I'm getting more excited now as the ECM would put some of the strongest winds right on top of my location, but this could be pre-mature...! I know others no doubt will not want to see this to verify though as its not particularly strong

Edited September 8, 2011 by chris93

[Liam J]

Meto NW England forecast

Outlook for Saturday to Monday:

Becoming windy, with gales or severe gales possible in exposed parts, especially on Monday. The weather stays changeable with bands of rain or showers interspersed with clearer, drier conditions.

Updated: 1809 on Thu 8 Sep 2011

[knightrider]

Does anyone think this will pack the same punch that the remnants of Hurricane Lili did back in 96?

[Chris D]

Meto NW England forecast

Outlook for Saturday to Monday:

Becoming windy, with gales or severe gales possible in exposed parts, especially on Monday. The weather stays changeable with bands of rain or showers interspersed with clearer, drier conditions.

Updated: 1809 on Thu 8 Sep 2011

Judging by that forecast I think they'll be issuing "yellow" warnings tomorrow or Saturday.

[knightrider]

Judging by that forecast I think they'll be issuing "yellow" warnings tomorrow or Saturday.

Saturday I think with maybe red warnings by Sunday.

[ANYWEATHER]

The Ecm, brings XKatia as a vigourous depression with the stongest winds to the Southern half of the The Uk...Dont think this is done by a long way folks.....

[knightrider]

The Ecm, brings XKatia as a vigourous depression with the stongest winds to the Southern half of the The Uk...Dont think this is done by a long way folks.....

If that graphic is right then it looks as if the strongest winds will be over Northern Ireland and northern England so maybe it'll just sweep south of Scotland, definately looks further south then it did earlier yes and the far south of England looks as if it could experience stronger winds then was 1st indicated but I still expect the strongest winds to be somewhere from the Midlands northwards. Certainly looking lively for most of us though with Gales at minimum if not then severe gales/storm force winds!

[Roger J Smith]

Based on current guidance and trends, this is my forecast for maximum wind gusts from Katia.

Timing, 0300-0900 in western Ireland, to 1200-1800 eastern England.

The values shown are for well exposed locations, if you lvie in a valley or have hills nearby to your west or southwest, you may not see gusts this strong locally.

Assumes a track through Donegal Bay, across Skye into northeast Scotland and southern Norway, with central pressures between 955 mbs at 15W to 970 mbs at 5E. .

[lorenzo]

ECM forecast certainly ramps things up.

I think some need reminded of the very real damage this system could cause, recently the system attached in May did some serious damage and it certainly looks harmless next to the ECM projection.

Photo reels below from the bbc from the May storm highlight in particular the impact of increased foliage, pivotal in creating disruption.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-13508921

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-13520160