Ex Ts Katia To Hit The UK - Chat Thread

[Aaron]

BAMD takes it straight over Leeds!

[knightrider]

Once again............Central London and I do not include the top of the shard in that. Can we just agree to disagree, you will either be disappointed or I will learn to take more notice of these storms in future.

On Tuesday it was not even noticibly windy here in SE1.

Just been looking at the GFS 06z, it is still only showing wind speeds approaching 30mph at most in the SE and this is primarily along the coast.

No we didn't have trees down your right but we had 40mph gusts here dont know about where you are, and a barge got blown into Southend pier. So if the lunchtime forecast showed a picture of an uprooted tree I'm going to stick my neck out here and say we'll see at least 50mph, although judging by the Atlantic preassure chart on the BBC weather site it dosnt look too bad but perhaps that needs updating!

[Radiating Dendrite]

No we didn't have trees down your right but we had 40mph gusts here dont know about where you are, and a barge got blown into Southend pier. So if the lunchtime forecast showed a picture of an uprooted tree I'm going to stick my neck out here and say we'll see at least 50mph, although judging by the Atlantic preassure chart on the BBC weather site it dosnt look too bad but perhaps that needs updating!

I am ending the argument here

We shall see...............pm me on Tuesday with the highest gust speed that you record.

BAMD takes it straight over Leeds!

But the main winds are on the Southern Flank. If you want high winds in Leeds then you need it to track along the Southern Uplands I would have said.

[knightrider]

Just viewed the 06z run.

Am I the only one who sees it as a huge upgrade?

System much further South, indeed so far South it gives Southern ireland the worst of it.

BAMD takes it straight over Leeds!

So if it's centred over Leeds then the strongest winds will be south of that so midlands and southern england, looking good for London and yes it makes sense that southern Ireland will see the strongest winds as it comes in off the Atlantic then it'll sweep east to north east across the country and then out into the North sea via the Humber.

[Aaron]

I am ending the argument here

We shall see...............pm me on Tuesday with the highest gust speed that you record.

But the main winds are on the Southern Flank. If you want high winds in Leeds then you need it to track along the Southern Uplands I would have said.

Yup. That's why I'm hoping it might, just might go a but further south over Scotland.

Edited September 8, 2011 by aaron

[knightrider]

I am ending the argument here

We shall see...............pm me on Tuesday with the highest gust speed that you record.

But the main winds are on the Southern Flank. If you want high winds in Leeds then you need it to track along the Southern Uplands I would have said.

It wont be what I record just whatever the BBC London forecast afterwards says where the strongest winds, assuming this will turn out to be anything at all who knows it might fizzle out!

[Aaron]

The best possible outcome IMHO

[knightrider]

The best possible outcome IMHO

For you maybe but it would have to be further south with the centre over your area for us down here to have anything significant.

There's an article in the Belfast Telegraph about it Forecasting winds over 90mph off the Irish coast!

[Radiating Dendrite]

I tell you one thing, ex-Katia certainly has the chance of bringing a lot of "hot air"!

I am surprised PWS has not condemned us to a 150MPH STORM DISASTER IMMINENT yet!

I await the Daily Mail headlines with eagerness

[Marcus_surfer]

This weather is pants! I hope Miss Katia goes further north, Scotland really doesn't need any more wind or rain at the moment

[David H]

Although the thought of strong winds hitting SW Scotland sounds appealing, we don't want another one of these, especially with leaves still on trees along with soggy ground !!!!!!

[Aaron]

Thought that chart was for Katia, got a bit excited for a moment!

[Coast]

Although the thought of strong winds hitting SW Scotland sounds appealing, we don't want another one of these

The Boxing Day Storm (also called the Great Boxing Day Storm of 1998 or Hurricane Stephen) was an Atlantic wind storm that made landfall in northwest Ireland. A Great Storm on Boxing Day, with particularly strong winds across Northern Ireland and central Scotland. The Forth Road Bridge was completely closed for the first time ever. Prestwick airport logged winds of 103 mph, and Glasgow airport 93 mph; mild too, with 15C in the Midlands. This storm is now known in Ireland as "Hurricane Stephen" The damage in Donegal was considerable, with wind gusts of up to 125 mph clocked by the Malin station. It is suggested that a particularly strong jet stream had moved north of Scotland, which may have contributed to the severity.

http://en.wikipedia....oxing_Day_Storm

http://www.castlebar.ie/index2.htm

[Radiating Dendrite]

Or this:

Not seen our good ol' friend the PV in proper action for a while now.

Edited September 8, 2011 by Radiating Dendrite

[Richie V]

Fond memories of this baby from October 2000. I scored a direct hit and broke two records at the same time.

Recorded 949.7 Mb at 04:21 30/10/00 and 91.3Mph half an hour later at 05:03.

Wind switched from an Easterly to a North westerly Instantly, and I really do mean instantly.

[chionomaniac]

I think it is time for a recap today to analyse what is likely to happen from Saturday onwards.

Saturdays starts with a rather deep longwave and surface based trough for this time of year, situated to the west of Ireland. This is likely to leave the whole of the UK in a warm and wet flow with gusty winds (upto 20 knots)already prevalent, especially close to west and south facing coasts.

Katia, now an extratropical storm system, approaches this long wave trough on Sunday by breaking through the jet stream. Katia will eventually join forces with this longwave trough which will shift the the long wave slightly northwest by Monday midday. By Monday lunchtime we will again be in another SW airstream with wet and gusty winds (upto 20-25 knots).

It is the period between Saturday and Monday that is most uncertain and I suspect the reason that the metoffice have not issued any warnings yet. Katia's approach looks to be complicated by the posibility of a preceding shortwave wrapping around the main trough. The shortwave timing and positioning could help or hinder whether or not Katia can latch on to the left exit zone of a jet streak - which would probably bring the strongest winds. As it happens any preceding shortwave could create nasty conditions for the south of the country if the jet aligns favourably - In fact it remains a possibility that the southern half of the country experiences windier conditions before Katia arrives and the northwest will see worse conditions once Katia joins forces with the existing trough.

The timing /possibility of the shortwave will have a distinct influence on the strength and direction of Katia and whether or not she will be damaging or not. At this point we can not tell whether this is a lot of fuss about nothing or whether we shouild be getting prepared for some nasty conditions.

One thing is certain is that with trees still in full leaf the winds do not need to be as strong as a winter storm to bring trees down -so beware!

Whether or not Katia disrupts this is an interesting period of model watching.

[Radiating Dendrite]

Fond memories of this baby from October 2000. I scored a direct hit and broke two records at the same time.

Recorded 949.7 Mb at 04:21 30/10/00 and 91.3Mph half an hour later at 05:03.

Wind switched from an Easterly to a North westerly Instantly, and I really do mean instantly.

What a beauty!

Would look great in a frame and on my wall that image! I think this actually brought a little wet snow to North Wales from what I can remember.

Despite the destruction, these storms can look magnificent, more than a match for a hurricane in their beauty.

[lorenzo]

If you really want to play the model tracks game, then this has to be the site with a myriad of options to click on and off to show what almost every current model is showing:

http://www.tropicala...strun=1&large=1

What a great gadget!

That is a fantastic device especially animating and working through the Ensembles.

A12 is indeed frightening a direct hit for where I am. Still think the NOAA prediction of Katia fishing between Shetland an Iceland is the way it will go.

[Coast]

I think it is time for a recap today to analyse what is likely to happen from Saturday onwards.

Thank you for that Chiono, very concise and spot on!

It is the period between Saturday and Monday that is most uncertain and I suspect the reason that the metoffice have not issued any warnings yet. Katia's approach looks to be complicated by the posibility of a preceding shortwave wrapping around the main trough. The shortwave timing and positioning could help or hinder whether or not Katia can latch on to the left exit zone of a jet streak - which would probably bring the strongest winds. As it happens any preceding shortwave could create nasty conditions for the south of the country if the jet aligns favourably - In fact it remains a possibility that the southern half of the country experiences windier conditions before Katia arrives and the northwest will see worse conditions once Katia joins forces with the existing trough.

Is this likely to give us the Fujiware effect?

[Coast]

Today's jet steam:

Here's the current forecast for Sunday:

and here's Monday at the height of anything:

[Zenarcher]

12z has just finished doing Sunday and Monday,

A change for Western Scotland as it seems to deepen again while passing North West Scotland,

[The PIT]

12 oz gfs has it much further south with all of Scotland and parts of northern England taking a battering. It also seems more prolonged than early runs.

[Paul]

Latest on the weekend's weather plus the track of Katia with Michael Fish:

[Coast]

A change for Western Scotland as it seems to deepen again while passing North West Scotland,

+ look at the isobars across the whole of the UK, even to the South

[Zenarcher]

Still some disagreement between the latest UKMO and GFS,

At 96 hours

Edited September 8, 2011 by weathermaster