Ex Ts Katia To Hit The UK - Chat Thread

[Aaron]

You can remind me of many things if you like...lol.....but it doesn't change the fact that at the moment this particular LP system is being over-ramped to oblivion in this thread....and with that, I shall bow out and stick to the sanity of the model discussion thread!

No, it isn't being over ramped to oblivion. People seem to think extreme weather is incapable of happening in the UK.

[A.J]

No, it isn't being over ramped to oblivion. People seem to think extreme weather is incapable of happening in the UK.

what people are you referring to per chance?

[knightrider]

I don't think anyone is really comparing it to 1987 which was really phenomenal in the south due to gusts of 100 mph being recorded in a few locations and even 78 mph in central London, but there is quite a potent spell of windy weather to come, and this is early September keeping in mind, not known for wild Autumnal weather. Obviously we need to stay in reality but you never know, anything can happen in the world of weather!

I think you'll find even central London had higher gusts then 78mph in the Great Storm of 87. The London weather centre recorded a gust of 94mph, and elsewhere in London gusts approaching 110mph where reported.

[Coast]

I guess Wednesday next week will be the time to make the comparisons with whatever happens over the next few days, but currently there's still a big puddle to jump:

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/archive/access.cgi?month=09&day=07&year=2011&storm=Katia&who=NOAA&aircraft=9&mission=WB&product=URNT15&map=1

[Pennine Ten Foot Drifts]

Well having just read through some of this thread I had to go back and re-check the latest output to make sure I hadn't missed anything, but going by current charts I'd tend to agree with the 'not much out of the ordinary' posts, in that I can't see anything which would make this 'exceptional'. Sure it may be a little early in the season, but this kind of set up in October/November wouldn't even raise an eyebrow I wouldn't have thought.

[knightrider]

Well having just read through some of this thread I had to go back and re-check the latest output to make sure I hadn't missed anything, but going by current charts I'd tend to agree with the 'not much out of the ordinary' posts, in that I can't see anything which would make this 'exceptional'. Sure it may be a little early in the season, but this kind of set up in October/November wouldn't even raise an eyebrow I wouldn't have thought.

The latest update is up now available on the link you can click in the main story, and it would suggest that this could be exceptional for northern areas with gusts of 90mph+ possible with anything upto 60mph for southern areas including London so my point has been made from earlier on that London could see 60mph

[jimbo36]

Ermmm, I think they are bang up to date with possibilities at this stage, I just think they are being cautious currently. If nothing is announced by Saturday evening, then I would be a little more concerned:

Hi Coast,

Looking at this fax chart then the Monday one, would this take the centre further south through southern Scotland?

Looks like the preceeding low hangs around NW Scotland forcing ex-TS Katia further south?

Not showing on other models though.

Thoughts?

[Coast]

Thoughts?

From that one, well yes, slightly more South! Loads more runs, lots of outside influence, many more miles to travel.......

I think this is sufficiently rare enough to mean that all the agencies and model producing outfits will be watching every run, twist and turn and waiting until the last moment to call it - or not. Saying that I'm not predicting anything 1987 style, just that it suggests it will be windier that normal at this time of year, possibly very windy and the further North you go the windier it will be - but then that isn't rocket science (or even meteorology!!! ) just bleeding obvious

What is of interest to me is a whole section of weather coming our way over the next few days and that there are possibilities for some areas to get something more than the norm. I'm enjoying the run up and trying to suss which way it will go and how strong it will be. I'm also keen to see the convective weather (if any) associated with this weekend as that is my main interest.

Anyway, here's an interesting thought. The current BAMM model takes Katia straight over Paul Sherman's house - see what's happening here?????

Here's the history of it's (and others) accuracy within 48 hours:

Just over 150 miles........

The BAMM is a simple trajectory model that is very fast to run, and did the best of any individual model at 3-5 day track forecasts in 2005. Since this model is always available, we have included it along with the "big four". In general, one should not trust the BAMM model for the 1-2 day time period when output from "the big four" are available. "The big four" are generally not available for tropical disturbances, and for these situations we post plots of a number of other non-global models such as the LBAR, A98E, etc

[Downburst]

http://met.ie/forecasts/5day-ireland.asp is a handy little site. I know it just covers Ireland but those in NW England and Sctoland can draw conclusions

Select Wind Tab and cycle thru there. Uses NWP and ECM models so you can't get better. This will be very handy to watch within 48 hours of the arrival.

Also these are average winds, not sure if it is sustained per hour or how it's measured. There will be the gusts well in excess of average. Coast is good, West coast better. How about in a pub on the west coast of Ireland with the turf fire lit and a pint of plain in front of you istening to the old fellas, "I'll never forget the night of the big wind..."

[Radiating Dendrite]

The latest update is up now available on the link you can click in the main story, and it would suggest that this could be exceptional for northern areas with gusts of 90mph+ possible with anything upto 60mph for southern areas including London so my point has been made from earlier on that London could see 60mph

"Perhaps gusts of 50-60 mph across southern areas – particularly along southern and western coasts exposed to the wind".

If Central London has a 60mph gust I will run down the road in the nude.

The main emphasis is on the word "coastal". It says that Exposed NW coastal areas could see 90mph winds, not inland locations.

[Coast]

If Central London has a 60mph gust I will run down the road in the nude.

PINNED FOR REFERENCE

[Radiating Dendrite]

PINNED FOR REFERENCE

I am more than happy for you to film it Coast and it can be put up on Netweather TV!

Maybe with Michael Fish's weekly forecast in the background!

[Coast]

I am more than happy for you to film it Coast and it can be put up on Netweather TV!

Err, cheers, I'll pass on that

[Radiating Dendrite]

Err, cheers, I'll pass on that

Your loss

Anyway, back on topic.............I do think some people are getting a little over excited.

If things are looking good on Saturday night then we can ramp, but Katia has not even interacted with the Jet Stream yet.

[jimbo36]

PINNED FOR REFERENCE

I can see RD regretting that statement as I've got my money on the centre running through further south, especially now that the BAMM is the only model to have taken into account the likelyhood of Paul having a curry the night before!!

[Radiating Dendrite]

I can see RD regretting that statement as I've got my money on the centre running through further south, especially now that the BAMM is the only model to have taken into account the likelyhood of Paul having a curry the night before!!

If it follows that track and deepens then it will be KerBAAM!

[knightrider]

"Perhaps gusts of 50-60 mph across southern areas – particularly along southern and western coasts exposed to the wind".

If Central London has a 60mph gust I will run down the road in the nude.

The main emphasis is on the word "coastal". It says that Exposed NW coastal areas could see 90mph winds, not inland locations.

Looks like where all gonna get a good laugth watching you run nude then lol Cause peter cockroft our weatherman for BBC London just said "It's looking stormy in the outlook with Monday being particularly nasty with gusts upwards of 50mph" Which means 60mph is more then likely

[Polar Bear]

From that one, well yes, slightly more South! Loads more runs, lots of outside influence, many more miles to travel.......

I think this is sufficiently rare enough to mean that all the agencies and model producing outfits will be watching every run, twist and turn and waiting until the last moment to call it - or not. Saying that I'm not predicting anything 1987 style, just that it suggests it will be windier that normal at this time of year, possibly very windy and the further North you go the windier it will be - but then that isn't rocket science (or even meteorology!!! ) just bleeding obvious

What is of interest to me is a whole section of weather coming our way over the next few days and that there are possibilities for some areas to get something more than the norm. I'm enjoying the run up and trying to suss which way it will go and how strong it will be. I'm also keen to see the convective weather (if any) associated with this weekend as that is my main interest.

Anyway, here's an interesting thought. The current BAMM model takes Katia straight over Paul Sherman's house - see what's happening here?????

Here's the history of it's (and others) accuracy within 48 hours:

Just over 150 miles........

Coast

You have picked up an interesting point there. Strengths of gusts at whichever part of the UK will have levels of destruction, obviousl closer to the low the higher these will be. We have been experiencing a fair amount of wet weather of late, the ground is becoming nicely soft, leaves still on the trees etc making I believe a fair less stable environment for sustained winds and precipitation. Anyone agree?

[Radiating Dendrite]

Looks like where all gonna get a good laugth watching you run nude then lol Cause peter cockroft our weatherman for BBC London just said "It's looking stormy in the outlook with Monday being particularly nasty with gusts upwards of 50mph" Which means 60mph is more then likely

But the key word is "Central London".

We may see gusts such as that in exposed parts and on the coast but unless the track of ex-katia is further south I do not see more than 40mph in Central London.

We shall see! I will make sure the birthday suit has been dry cleaned!

[Polar Bear]

If it follows that track and deepens then it will be KerBAAM!

...and time to reel in Michael fish for a famous quote just the night before..

[Downburst]

Interesting thing. Malin Head in Donegal, very north of the country records an amazing average 66 days a year with gale force winds, very roughly that's once a week. Centre of Ireland the average is 1.2 days, or about once a year in the dead center. This is not just the land calming the wind down. It's also the average track of the depressions just happen to pass north of Ireland and clip Scotland.

Remember Hurrican Charlie in 1986? It broke lots of records

European impact

Reservoir dam in Ireland that nearly overflowed due to Charley

After Charley became extratropical, the United Kingdom Met Office issued weather alerts prior to the arrival of the storm, noting the potential for "extremely heavy rainfall [which would] cause local flooding."^[9] In the United Kingdom, the threat of the storm resulted in the cancellation of ferry service between Northern Ireland and Great Britain, as well between Great Britain and France.^[20] The extratropical remnants of Hurricane Charley moved across Ireland and United Kingdom with winds of 50 mph (85 km/h).^[6] The storm's rainfall significantly affected most of both countries, with the exception of Scotland in the United Kingdom.^[20][21] In the English Channel, waves up to 26 ft (8 m) in height breached and flooded a ship; the 31 passengers on board were rescued by helicopters and other ships.^[21] Throughout the region, the storm resulted in at least 11 deaths.^[20]

First passing just south of Ireland on August 25, the storm dropped heavy rainfall and brought strong winds, significantly affecting the coastline where winds of 65 mph (105 km/h) were reported. Rainfall spread across the entire country, peaking at 11.0 in (280 mm) in Kippure. There, a station reported more than 7.8 in (200 mm) in 24 hours, which set the record for the greatest daily rainfall total in the country. Several 24 hour rainfall records were set during the storm, and new six-hour and twelve-hour record totals at Casement Aerodrome were set with 1.63 in (41.5 mm) and 2.61 in (66.2 mm), respectively.^[9] The rainfall left some areas flooded,^[20] particularly in the Dublin area where 451 buildings were inundated, some up to a depth of 8 ft (2.4 m). Preliminarily, it was described as the worst flooding in the history of Dublin.^[9] Two small rivers, the Dodder and the Dargle, overflowed their banks due to the rainfall.^[9] The River Dargle overflowed in Bray, flooding some areas up to a depth of 5 ft (1.5 m) and forcing about 1,000 people to evacuate;^[21] several special-needs people were evacuated by boat. The flood, which originated about one mile north of the town, damaged over 500 houses and brought down several trees. Despite local politicians promising for flood protection after the flood, the city remained vulnerable to such flooding at least 20 years after the storm.^[22] The River Dodder, which also overflowed, nearly exceeded the reservoir dam in Bohernabreena in South Dublin. Additional spillways were later added in the event of another similar flood.^[23] In the Wicklow Mountains, the rainfall resulted in significant runoff, which caused erosion along the Cloghoge River.^[24] The passage of the storm left heavy crop damage, part of a larger period of poor agriculture in the country.^[21] Throughout the country, the storm caused at least five deaths, four of which were drownings in flooded rivers; the fifth death was caused by a heart attack while being evacuated from flooding.^[20] Two months after the storm struck, the government of Ireland allocated IR£6,449,000 (1986 IEP, $8,650,000 1986 USD) to repair roads and bridges damaged by the weather system.^[25]

The storm also affected the United Kingdom as it moved across the southern portion of the country.^[6] In Wales, Charley produced record-breaking daily rainfall, which surpassed 4 inches (100 mm) in Dyfed. Some locations received hundred year rainfall.^[26] The storm struck the area during the Summer Bank holiday, creating unfavorable conditions for driving and resulting in several accidents.^[21] Heavy rainfall flooded rivers, which swept away several people. This prompted officials to deploy boats and helicopters to assist in rescues, although at least three deaths were reported due to drowning in the rivers. Severe flooding was reported in Cumbria and Gloucestershire. The storm also left roads blocked by fallen trees and power lines. In Whitland, Wales, local soldiers assisted rescuing people, and later contributed to the cleanup of the town. Throughout the country, five people were missing after the storm, all of whom are presumed to have drowned; an additional death was confirmed in Newry, Northern Ireland.^[20]

[January Snowstorm]

Just viewed the 06z run.

Am I the only one who sees it as a huge upgrade?

System much further South, indeed so far South it gives Southern ireland the worst of it.

[knightrider]

But the key word is "Central London".

We may see gusts such as that in exposed parts and on the coast but unless the track of ex-katia is further south I do not see more than 40mph in Central London.

We shall see! I will make sure the birthday suit has been dry cleaned!

Well seeing as during the forecast he did he showed a picture of some of the scenes we could be seeing next week and there was an image of a large tree down I would think the gusts would be well over 40mph seeing as we had that on Tuesday.

[Radiating Dendrite]

Well seeing as during the forecast he did he showed a picture of some of the scenes we could be seeing next week and there was an image of a large tree down I would think the gusts would be well over 40mph seeing as we had that on Tuesday.

Once again............Central London and I do not include the top of the shard in that. Can we just agree to disagree, you will either be disappointed or I will learn to take more notice of these storms in future.

On Tuesday it was not even noticibly windy here in SE1.

Just been looking at the GFS 06z, it is still only showing wind speeds approaching 30mph at most in the SE and this is primarily along the coast.

Edited September 8, 2011 by Radiating Dendrite

[Coast]

If you really want to play the model tracks game, then this has to be the site with a myriad of options to click on and off to show what almost every current model is showing:

http://www.tropicala...strun=1&large=1

What a great gadget!