Ex Ts Katia To Hit The UK - Chat Thread

[Harry]

LOL yes in other words too little too late, wouldn't surprise me to be honest! Or just totally under-hype it like they did in 1987.

To be fair, little was known in 1987 about atmospheric bombs and the like...what caused so much devastation in 1987 was a 'freak' weather event - freak because they are very rare events and people knew very little about them.

My concern is that Katia is a fairly decent recipe for a 1987 style bomb. She will be drawing very cold air from Greenland/Iceland on her western flank, and very warm tropical air on her eastern flank...I'm no expert by any stretch but we have a lot of the ingredients there.

MetO rather surprisingly have Katia much further South compared to other models, yet saying little about it at the moment. I suspect it will be a late night Friday/early morning Saturday before much is said on the matter. To be fair - the setup is one that will bring little more than wind and rain, OR, widespread disruption, damage and possibly fatalities.

They do though IMO, need to make some (albeit 'low confidence') forecasts soon other than 'wet and quite windy'

[Coast]

Full moon timed for Monday also, will cause tidal ranges to be unusually high on south and west facing coasts, large swells likely from combined effects of Katia and previous storm, and battering wave potential with some risk of storm surges into a few exposed bays (notably Galway Bay, and in western Scotland).

Courtesy of Magic Seaweed:

[Harry]

Well no offence to any Scots but as bad as this storm would be if it hit with the intensity it's expected too it would be better off up there where there's mountains and cow farms etc.. and it's less populated then down here in the south where we have a little town called London lmao If this storm was to unleash 100mph winds down here the deathtoll could be catastrophic!

Ever so slightly Hollywood that....

While I wholeheartedly understand your point, risk to life is risk to life at the end of the day, whether it's half a dozen farmers protecting their cowsheds or millions in a city, people's lives are (potentially) at risk from Katia's remnants.

[Aaron]

If people stay indoors then the no lives should be lost.

[glasgow-guy]

Well no offence to any Scots but as bad as this storm would be if it hit with the intensity it's expected too it would be better off up there where there's mountains and cow farms etc.. and it's less populated then down here in the south where we have a little town called London lmao If this storm was to unleash 100mph winds down here the deathtoll could be catastrophic!

no offence taken however most of the population of Scotland is in the central belt if it stays on its predicted path lots of property and people to be hurt and building damaged

[knightrider]

To be fair, little was known in 1987 about atmospheric bombs and the like...what caused so much devastation in 1987 was a 'freak' weather event - freak because they are very rare events and people knew very little about them.

My concern is that Katia is a fairly decent recipe for a 1987 style bomb. She will be drawing very cold air from Greenland/Iceland on her western flank, and very warm tropical air on her eastern flank...I'm no expert by any stretch but we have a lot of the ingredients there.

MetO rather surprisingly have Katia much further South compared to other models, yet saying little about it at the moment. I suspect it will be a late night Friday/early morning Saturday before much is said on the matter. To be fair - the setup is one that will bring little more than wind and rain, OR, widespread disruption, damage and possibly fatalities.

They do though IMO, need to make some (albeit 'low confidence') forecasts soon other than 'wet and quite windy'

I agree with you there, American forecasters put out weather watches about a week in advance even if their low on confidence look what happened with Irene they hyped it up as a once in a generation storm just cause it was heading for New York and by the time it got there it was barely a hurricane at all, but I would rather they just assumed the worst case scenario then flippantly hope for the best!

[Coast]

Or just totally under-hype it like they did in 1987.

MetO rather surprisingly have Katia much further South compared to other models, yet saying little about it at the moment. I suspect it will be a late night Friday/early morning Saturday before much is said on the matter. To be fair - the setup is one that will bring little more than wind and rain, OR, widespread disruption, damage and possibly fatalities.

Yet again I'll hold my hand up and apologise for a tad more ramping than usual. But in reality someone in the UK is going to see +60mph winds I suspect and maybe a little further South than first thought when it was going to be more of an Iceland thing.

I'm particularly intersted to see what part the jet plays in all this and how high (and how far) the winds on the southern side of the centre get.

[glasgow-guy]

If people stay indoors then the no lives should be lost.

so people cant die if there roof collapses in on them or there large chimney breasts falling through there roof

[Aaron]

so people cant die if there roof collapses in on them or there large chimney breasts falling through there roof

I think you've over estimating this storm. It's likely to be very, very windy but I doubt there's going to be a casualties all over the place.

Edited September 8, 2011 by aaron

[Harry]

If people stay indoors then the no lives should be lost.

Providing trees don't crash through them.

[knightrider]

If people stay indoors then the no lives should be lost.

Yes if your downstairs perhaps, but if your upstairs and the chimney comes down or the roof blows off or a tree comes crashing down into your house then maybe some people will end up brown bread lol

[Sprites]

Could be some articles in the daily mail about katia, 150mph winds to hit britain or some other headline...

[knightrider]

I think you've over estimating this storm. It's likely to be very, very windy but I doubt there's going to be a casualties all over the place.

Well if the winds hit 100mph like some are saying then there will be casualties, there's bound to be baring a minor miracle!

[glasgow-guy]

I think you've over estimating this storm. It's likely to be very, very windy but I doubt there's going to be a casualties all over the place.

i am not trying to over play this storm but the potential is always there for damage to property and loss of life to occur even in mild storms

[Harry]

I think you've over estimating this storm. It's likely to be very, very windy but I doubt there's going to be a casualties all over the place.

If it's called a 'storm' then there's a risk of structural damage and loss of life - by definition.

Granted this is not exactly Katrina, but the track is not certain nor the intensity! If the storm tracks over the UK (as I think it will, contrary to common opinion) as opposed to swinging past the NW then yes casualties are a distinct possibility including fatalities! The 1987 storm killed (iirc) 18 people, in the very early hours when the vast majority were asleep in their homes. This storm, if a direct hit, will be during daylight hours when many will be on the roads, in the streets.

I agree - there's a fair bit of hype over this event - however the ingredients are there for it to be fairly historic!

[Aaron]

Well if the winds hit 100mph like some are saying then there will be casualties, there's bound to be baring a minor miracle!

I don't see the 100 mph winds coming off tbh!

[knightrider]

Could be some articles in the daily mail about katia, 150mph winds to hit britain or some other headline...

LOL yes I trust the papers to over-hype the situation abit they always do, they said the winds we had on Tuesday where going to be enougth to remove rooftiles lol It was barely enougth to make me lean into it when I went out for a walk!

[Aaron]

If it's called a 'storm' then there's a risk of structural damage and loss of life - by definition.

Granted this is not exactly Katrina, but the track is not certain nor the intensity! If the storm tracks over the UK (as I think it will, contrary to common opinion) as opposed to swinging past the NW then yes casualties are a distinct possibility including fatalities! The 1987 storm killed (iirc) 18 people, in the very early hours when the vast majority were asleep in their homes. This storm, if a direct hit, will be during daylight hours when many will be on the roads, in the streets.

I agree - there's a fair bit of hype over this event - however the ingredients are there for it to be fairly historic!

Point taken. I just think whenever there is a storm, people can always do something to stay safer. A lot of people during hurricanes for example wonder off, even during the hurricane and end up getting hit in the head by branches. Just little things that people shouldn't do

[glasgow-guy]

I don't see the 100 mph winds coming off tbh!

I agree I cant see 100mph winds however 70/80mph can still produce the same results

[knightrider]

If it's called a 'storm' then there's a risk of structural damage and loss of life - by definition.

Granted this is not exactly Katrina, but the track is not certain nor the intensity! If the storm tracks over the UK (as I think it will, contrary to common opinion) as opposed to swinging past the NW then yes casualties are a distinct possibility including fatalities! The 1987 storm killed (iirc) 18 people, in the very early hours when the vast majority were asleep in their homes. This storm, if a direct hit, will be during daylight hours when many will be on the roads, in the streets.

I agree - there's a fair bit of hype over this event - however the ingredients are there for it to be fairly historic!

I don't see the 100 mph winds coming off tbh!

I agree that 100mph winds probably wont happen but I suspect 70mph is more then likely, but if it where to hit 100mph and people where out on the streets and driving around in their cars then arn't some people abit mad here in the UK? LOL In america if there's a 100mph wind they take shelter in mass evacuation camps, normally inside basketball arena's etc... either we are mad or the Americans are just a bunch of wimps lmao.

[Harry]

Point taken. I just think whenever there is a storm, people can always do something to stay safer. A lot of people during hurricanes for example wonder off, even during the hurricane and end up getting hit in the head by branches. Just little things that people shouldn't do

Oh indeed! In this country, we are particularly ignorant when it comes to severe weather because we don't see it often enough.

Look at the snow - people go wading out in their cars when it's been forecast for days, they get stranded then complain the emergency services aren't doing enough....NOOO, you're as thick as a plank and flagrantly ignored the advice given to you by the weather forecasters, MetO and emergency services because you know best and think you're really clever.....

Sorry (dear oh dear)...gave up the cigs this week so liable to mild imitation of Pinatubo!

Yes indeed people do silly things and expose themselves to risks unnecessarily...based on current TV and MetO forecasts though, I wouldn't be changing my plans for the weekend yet!

I agree that 100mph winds probably wont happen but I suspect 70mph is more then likely, but if it where to hit 100mph and people where out on the streets and driving around in their cars then arn't some people abit mad here in the UK? LOL In america if there's a 100mph wind they take shelter in mass evacuation camps, normally inside basketball arena's etc... either we are mad or the Americans are just a bunch of wimps lmao.

Primarily the latter LOL but they're used to hearing about death and destruction EVERY year so never know what to expect....here it's very rare so people don't take any warnings seriously.

[Sprites]

LOL yes I trust the papers to over-hype the situation abit they always do, they said the winds we had on Tuesday where going to be enougth to remove rooftiles lol It was barely enougth to make me lean into it when I went out for a walk!

i hope it doesnt turn out to be very intense, if it does blame global warming... A dramatic squall line would be a bonus though.

[knightrider]

Oh indeed! In this country, we are particularly ignorant when it comes to severe weather because we don't see it often enough.

Look at the snow - people go wading out in their cars when it's been forecast for days, they get stranded then complain the emergency services aren't doing enough....NOOO, you're as thick as a plank and flagrantly ignored the advice given to you by the weather forecasters, MetO and emergency services because you know best and think you're really clever.....

Sorry (dear oh dear)...gave up the cigs this week so liable to mild imitation of Pinatubo!

Yes indeed people do silly things and expose themselves to risks unnecessarily...based on current TV and MetO forecasts though, I wouldn't be changing my plans for the weekend yet!

Primarily the latter LOL but they're used to hearing about death and destruction EVERY year so never know what to expect....here it's very rare so people don't take any warnings seriously.

Very true, and yes your right about the snow aswell just plain ignorance. I saw a kid down my road last winter when it was at it's peak in terms of coldness going down the road on a skateboard in what was probably about -6 in just a t-shirt and shorts, no surprise to hear that the next day he was rushed to hospital and was seriously ill with hyperthemia and only just survived, what a plonker!!!! :-/

[Radiating Dendrite]

i hope it doesnt turn out to be very intense, if it does blame global warming... A dramatic squall line would be a bonus though.

Why would we blame Global Warming?

i suppose Global Warming caused the 1703 windstorm?

[Aaron]

Yes indeed people do silly things and expose themselves to risks unnecessarily...based on current TV and MetO forecasts though, I wouldn't be changing my plans for the weekend yet!

Yeah.. I'm actually really surprised the Met Office aren't releasing warnings at least for north west Scotland and northern Ireland.